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2016 California Weather/ Climate

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#101
Dan the Weatherman

Posted 25 January 2016 - 07:28 PM

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Yes, the hills are green and the high mountains have snow à la California winter.  I'm really eager for some more rainfall, not drizzle.

 

72 / 51

 

I am ready for something more significant than a two minute sprinkle.



#102
Mr Marine Layer

Posted 26 January 2016 - 10:22 PM

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Models still not able to agree on the strength of our weekend storm system. Hopefully they will come to a consensus soon and hopefully it will be a decent storm.



#103
Dan the Weatherman

Posted 27 January 2016 - 02:07 AM

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Models still not able to agree on the strength of our weekend storm system. Hopefully they will come to a consensus soon and hopefully it will be a decent storm.

 

I wonder what causing the models so much trouble in trying to resolve this upcoming pattern.


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#104
Eujunga

Posted 27 January 2016 - 08:40 AM

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I wonder what causing the models so much trouble in trying to resolve this upcoming pattern.

 

That's a good question.  It's a bit unusual for the models to be so consistent within themselves from run to run, but so different from each other.

 

Fortunately for rain lovers, it's looking like I may have backed the wrong horse, as the ECMWF seems gradually to be coming more into line with what the GFS has been suggesting all along.  We'll see if the trend continues on today's 12z ECMWF.

 

If the storm doesn't wash out or disappear, we should have a shot at over 0.50" of rain on Sunday, which would technically count as a "Before February 1st" result for Mr Marine Layer's poll.  I don't think anyone voted for that possibility!


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Tujunga, CA (15 miles N of Downtown L.A.) - Elev. 1,860 ft.

 

Eugene, OR (5 miles SSW) - Elev. 850 ft.


#105
richard mann

Posted 27 January 2016 - 11:56 AM

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-
.. If I may, in light of the situation more current at this point.
 
http://theweatherforums.com/index.php/topic/1133-winter-2015-colder-air-mass-movement-and-distribution-projections/?p=111678

 Mainly, the initial paragraphic of my response to this question routed to above, posed by "Mr Marine Layer".

http://theweatherforums.com/index.php/topic/609-approaching-pattern-discussion/?p=35907

http://www.ghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/globalir.html

http://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2016/01/major-atmospheric-river-period-for-west.html
 
My comment attached to the blog post by Prof. Mass linked to here just above.


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#106
Mr Marine Layer

Posted 27 January 2016 - 01:14 PM

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Thick high clouds today which are making it much cooler and gloomier than expected. They look thick enough to have some virga.



#107
Temeku

Posted 27 January 2016 - 06:16 PM

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Overcast but warm today, annoying low humidity. Can't wait for the weekend storm.


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Temecula Seasonal Precipitation 2016-2017: 5.56" (+0.95")

Normal to-date precipitation: 4.61"
Season began July 1st, 2016.
 
My Seasonal Precipitation 2016-2017: 5.12"

Last updated on December 25th, 2016.

 

 

 


#108
TT-SEA

Posted 27 January 2016 - 06:18 PM

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Overcast but warm today, annoying low humidity. Can't wait for the weekend storm.

 

Are you in Temecula?  



#109
Eujunga

Posted 27 January 2016 - 07:08 PM

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Welcome Temeku!


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Tujunga, CA (15 miles N of Downtown L.A.) - Elev. 1,860 ft.

 

Eugene, OR (5 miles SSW) - Elev. 850 ft.


#110
happ

Posted 27 January 2016 - 07:21 PM

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Thick high clouds today which are making it much cooler and gloomier than expected. They look thick enough to have some virga.

 

Altocumulus shield into broken clouds made for a nice sunset.  Actually temps ended up the same as yesterday.  Looking forward to rainfall Sunday.

 

74 / 54



#111
Mr Marine Layer

Posted 27 January 2016 - 09:13 PM

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Altocumulus shield into broken clouds made for a nice sunset.  Actually temps ended up the same as yesterday.  Looking forward to rainfall Sunday.

 

74 / 54

 

Yep, sunset was nice, but not as pretty as some of the sunsets that we had last week.



#112
Temeku

Posted 27 January 2016 - 10:49 PM

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Are you in Temecula?  

Yep.


Temecula Seasonal Precipitation 2016-2017: 5.56" (+0.95")

Normal to-date precipitation: 4.61"
Season began July 1st, 2016.
 
My Seasonal Precipitation 2016-2017: 5.12"

Last updated on December 25th, 2016.

 

 

 


#113
Dan the Weatherman

Posted 28 January 2016 - 12:37 AM

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Overcast but warm today, annoying low humidity. Can't wait for the weekend storm.

 

Welcome to the forum! It's nice having more California members on here.


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#114
happ

Posted 28 January 2016 - 12:15 PM

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Welcome to the forum! It's nice having more California members on here.

 

Yes.  There are more people in Los Angeles/ Orange Co then in both Washington and Oregon combined.  But boring weather is hard to get enthusiastic about. 

 

Temeku, did you record any frost this winter? 



#115
Mr Marine Layer

Posted 28 January 2016 - 01:46 PM

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Welcome, Temeku. I recognize you.  

 

Looks like NorCal is getting some more rain, but it's not as strong as the storms they got last week.



#116
Temeku

Posted 28 January 2016 - 10:17 PM

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Yes.  There are more people in Los Angeles/ Orange Co then in both Washington and Oregon combined.  But boring weather is hard to get enthusiastic about. 

 

Temeku, did you record any frost this winter? 

 

Yes, I recorded a handful of them right around New Year's and also in mid-December. Here, from my Davis Vantage Pro 2:

 

YMaLCaJ.png

Z33OJMF.png

 

Welcome, Temeku. I recognize you.  

 

Looks like NorCal is getting some more rain, but it's not as strong as the storms they got last week.

 

Hey Jet. :P Temeku is the username I go by on most forums so I used it here as well.


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Temecula Seasonal Precipitation 2016-2017: 5.56" (+0.95")

Normal to-date precipitation: 4.61"
Season began July 1st, 2016.
 
My Seasonal Precipitation 2016-2017: 5.12"

Last updated on December 25th, 2016.

 

 

 


#117
TT-SEA

Posted 28 January 2016 - 10:35 PM

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Yep.

 

We lived in Hidden Meadows on the east side of 15 between Fallbrook and Escondido from 1998-2003.   We built a house there which overlooked Old Castle Road and Palomar Mountain.

 

Before that we lived in Rancho Penasquitos from 1994-1998.    And in Mission Valley from 1992-1994.

 

We moved up here in 2004.



#118
Temeku

Posted 28 January 2016 - 10:46 PM

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We lived in Hidden Meadows on the east side of 15 between Fallbrook and Escondido from 1998-2003.   We built a house there which overlooked Old Castle Road and Palomar Mountain.

 

Before that we lived in Rancho Penasquitos from 1994-1998.    And in Mission Valley from 1992-1994.

 

We moved up here in 2004.

 

Heh, that makes me wonder if I've seen your house on one of the hills in Hidden Meadows while driving on the 15 near that Lawrence Welk Village place. Beautiful out there. Cool that you've been around San Diego County as much as you have, I lived in Poway, Kearny Mesa and Mira Mesa throughout the 90s.


Temecula Seasonal Precipitation 2016-2017: 5.56" (+0.95")

Normal to-date precipitation: 4.61"
Season began July 1st, 2016.
 
My Seasonal Precipitation 2016-2017: 5.12"

Last updated on December 25th, 2016.

 

 

 


#119
TT-SEA

Posted 28 January 2016 - 10:57 PM

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Heh, that makes me wonder if I've seen your house on one of the hills in Hidden Meadows while driving on the 15 near that Lawrence Welk Village place. Beautiful out there. Cool that you've been around San Diego County as much as you have, I lived in Poway, Kearny Mesa and Mira Mesa throughout the 90s.

    

 

Our house was at the very north end of Hidden Meadows.    You can't see the house we built from 15... but you can see houses just down the road from us.    

 

We are originally from MN and had been wanting to get out of SoCal... the firestorm of 2003 made us finally decide to do it.    

 

Speaking of Temecula... love that area.    I worked for a CPA firm and Pechanga was our client.  I was there all the time when it just opened.    And we would always take our family and friends from the Midwest to Temecula for wine tasting.    



#120
Mr Marine Layer

Posted 29 January 2016 - 07:09 AM

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Heh, that makes me wonder if I've seen your house on one of the hills in Hidden Meadows while driving on the 15 near that Lawrence Welk Village place. Beautiful out there. Cool that you've been around San Diego County as much as you have, I lived in Poway, Kearny Mesa and Mira Mesa throughout the 90s.

 

Are you talking about Lawrence Welk Resort in Escondido? That's a very beautiful place. My family used to own a timeshare there. It's one of the nicest places in the country.



#121
happ

Posted 29 January 2016 - 09:53 AM

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San Diego county is, indeed beautiful.  I have family in San Luis Rey, Rancho Penasquitos & Tierrasanta.  The drive on 78 out of Escondido up into the foothills of mainly avocado groves around Ramona, Santa Ysabel.  Apple orchards in Julian [el. 4,226'].  The drive down the other side of coast range drops steeply into the low desert; fabulous views.  Anza Borrego wild flowers should be blooming soon? http://www.desertusa...o/ca_abdsp.html

 

Thursday: 77 / 54 

 

L: 54


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#122
happ

Posted 29 January 2016 - 10:10 AM

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Yes, I recorded a handful of them right around New Year's and also in mid-December. Here, from my Davis Vantage Pro 2:

 

YMaLCaJ.png

Z33OJMF.png

 

 

Hey Jet. :P Temeku is the username I go by on most forums so I used it here as well.

 

Your data shows how cold it has been since mid December.  I know palm growers in Temecula & Deluz who watch the thermometer very closely.



#123
Eujunga

Posted 29 January 2016 - 04:00 PM

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Models looking pretty good for our Sunday SoCal storm.  Nice to see them coalescing towards a stronger solution, for a change.  Hope they verify.

 

Farther out, the 18z GFS shows a gorgeous Omega block at about Day 12.  If it were to verify slightly to the west, or dig in a bit more westward on its eastern side, we could have some interesting weather!

 

Way too far out to start buying mittens and tire chains, but it's fun to see, and at least gives us something to watch.


Tujunga, CA (15 miles N of Downtown L.A.) - Elev. 1,860 ft.

 

Eugene, OR (5 miles SSW) - Elev. 850 ft.


#124
happ

Posted 29 January 2016 - 04:14 PM

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I look forward to added more rainfall to the month; hopefully a lot of convective showers.

 

H: 78

 

CPC is truly frightening

Attached Files



#125
Mr Marine Layer

Posted 29 January 2016 - 04:18 PM

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I hope the storm for this weekend gives us the forecasted totals. Lake Forest almost always gets more rain than John Wayne Airport and Fullerton Airport. Sometimes we get a good amount and those two airports have about half as much. I think being close to Santa Ana Mountains gives Lake Forest higher totals.

 

Also noticed with recent storms, San Diego County and Los Angeles County have been getting more rain than Orange County.

 

Otherwise a very nice day today with sunset times getting noticeably later than a month ago.



#126
Eujunga

Posted 29 January 2016 - 04:48 PM

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I look forward to added more rainfall to the month; hopefully a lot of convective showers.

 

H: 78

 

CPC is truly frightening

 

Looks like last year.  And the year before.  And the year before that.

 

After Sunday's storm, the next couple of weeks look dry for sure, but even if the juicy Hour 336-384 stuff on the GFS doesn't verify, there's still hope for the second half of the month.


Tujunga, CA (15 miles N of Downtown L.A.) - Elev. 1,860 ft.

 

Eugene, OR (5 miles SSW) - Elev. 850 ft.


#127
Eujunga

Posted 29 January 2016 - 05:18 PM

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Does anyone here remember the early January 1974 storm?  Tons of snow down to 2000'.  The projected event for 2/11/16 isn't quite as impressive, but there are certainly some similarities:

 

http://s22.postimg.o...b5/02_11_16.jpg

 

http://s21.postimg.o...s7/01_04_74.jpg

 

I can't get the links to post correctly so I'll also attach images (if anyone can tell me what I'm doing wrong, I'd be grateful).

 

Attached File  02-11-16.jpg   216.17KB   0 downloads

 

Attached File  01-04-74.jpg   158.72KB   0 downloads


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Tujunga, CA (15 miles N of Downtown L.A.) - Elev. 1,860 ft.

 

Eugene, OR (5 miles SSW) - Elev. 850 ft.


#128
Mr Marine Layer

Posted 29 January 2016 - 05:40 PM

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Does anyone here remember the early January 1974 storm?  Tons of snow down to 2000'.  The projected event for 2/11/16 isn't quite as impressive, but there are certainly some similarities:

 

I do not remember that one because that was before I was born, but I do remember getting hit by a series of very wet and powerful storms in January 1995. I was in high school at that time and our field would become a mire after every big storm. We still had to walk across it to get to most classes.



#129
Eujunga

Posted 29 January 2016 - 05:55 PM

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Yup, January 1995 was my wettest month ever with a bit over 20 inches.

 

Another gorgeous sunset tonight:

 

Attached File  160129001web.jpg   52.57KB   0 downloads

 

Attached File  160129002web.jpg   49.23KB   0 downloads

 

Attached File  160129003web.jpg   46.09KB   0 downloads


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Tujunga, CA (15 miles N of Downtown L.A.) - Elev. 1,860 ft.

 

Eugene, OR (5 miles SSW) - Elev. 850 ft.


#130
Dan the Weatherman

Posted 29 January 2016 - 11:29 PM

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I look forward to added more rainfall to the month; hopefully a lot of convective showers.

 

H: 78

 

CPC is truly frightening

 

That pattern really looks like a La Nina pattern! Hopefully we don't have to endure a lengthy dry spell in February. This occasional storm pattern we have been in is not typical for a strong El Nino year, and I feel that there is some other major weather driver overriding the effects of El Nino at this time.


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#131
Dan the Weatherman

Posted 29 January 2016 - 11:32 PM

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I do not remember that one because that was before I was born, but I do remember getting hit by a series of very wet and powerful storms in January 1995. I was in high school at that time and our field would become a mire after every big storm. We still had to walk across it to get to most classes.

 

I was too young to remember the 1974 storm (which was a La Nina year), but I remember 1995 very well with all the storms in January. That is what I expected this year to be like, and the 1995 El Nino wasn't even as strong as our current episode.



#132
Eujunga

Posted 30 January 2016 - 08:31 AM

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 I feel that there is some other major weather driver overriding the effects of El Nino at this time.

 

Yes.  It's the Anti-Hype Gods.  Every time a SoCal weather pundit publicly hypes El Niño yet again and guarantees that heavy "El Niño rains" are on the way, the Anti-Hype Gods use that hot air to pump up the Eastern Pacific high, leaving us dry.  "You think you're so smart," they say.  "Take that!"

 

Seriously, an article in today's LA Times addressed that very question:

 

http://www.latimes.c...0130-story.html


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Tujunga, CA (15 miles N of Downtown L.A.) - Elev. 1,860 ft.

 

Eugene, OR (5 miles SSW) - Elev. 850 ft.


#133
richard mann

Posted 30 January 2016 - 09:49 AM

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.. I feel that there is some other major weather driver overriding the effects of El Nino at this time.

 

Do you have something more in particular in mind here Dan. ? .. Or is this idea meant more to suggest a "driver" perhaps more yet unknown. ?


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#134
happ

Posted 30 January 2016 - 10:53 AM

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I do not remember that one because that was before I was born, but I do remember getting hit by a series of very wet and powerful storms in January 1995. I was in high school at that time and our field would become a mire after every big storm. We still had to walk across it to get to most classes.

 

I pulled up the data on Jan 1995 and see that I recorded 15.93.  Right now I have recorded only 3.19 this month but hope tomorrow brings the 1 to 2 inches advertised by NWS_LA.



#135
WeatherCrossing

Posted 30 January 2016 - 01:10 PM

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Total rain/snow ending Monday morning shows LA getting a good shot of rain on Sunday.  The San Bernardino mountains may get over a foot of snow.  

 

Attached File  Screen Shot 2016-01-30 at 1.06.16 PM.png   644.24KB   0 downloads


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Premium graphics. Advanced display. WeatherCrossing.com


#136
Mr Marine Layer

Posted 30 January 2016 - 02:00 PM

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Stratus clouds are very stubborn today and once again it's like late May or early June. Ever since the big storms of early January moved out, it has been very boring weather, even for Southern California. No major cold snaps, no major warm spells, no strong Santa Ana Winds, and no good rain of any kind.

Hopefully tomorrow will be more winter like than this June Gloom or complete lack of any interesting weather.
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#137
Mr Marine Layer

Posted 30 January 2016 - 02:36 PM

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We are starting to get some drizzle or light rain here.



#138
Mr Marine Layer

Posted 30 January 2016 - 03:51 PM

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Marine layer is giving steady light rain for the past hour and it's starting to come down a little better. Pretty amazing if we could pick up more than 0.05" from just a marine layer.

#139
Eujunga

Posted 30 January 2016 - 04:12 PM

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I'll take a marine layer any day over epic torching like we had in January 2014.

 

Besides, it's nice sign that gradients are turning strongly onshore and that the lower levels of the atmosphere are moistening up in advance of tomorrow's storm.

 

No drizzle here but the cloud bases are up to around 4,000 ft.

 

Enjoy tomorrow's storm while it lasts, because it looks dry again for a long time afterward.

 

High of 60º today was 16 degrees cooler than yesterday.


Tujunga, CA (15 miles N of Downtown L.A.) - Elev. 1,860 ft.

 

Eugene, OR (5 miles SSW) - Elev. 850 ft.


#140
Mr Marine Layer

Posted 30 January 2016 - 05:46 PM

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Light rain and drizzle died down which gives us a total of 0.02" so far. Interestingly, Los Angeles aviation reports detected no marine layer inversion, but it sure looked like a marine layer to me. 0.02" for Lake Forest beats the January 20 mistfest of 0.01" and is the biggest total we've had since January 7. Hopefully tomorrow brings a lot more.



#141
Dan the Weatherman

Posted 30 January 2016 - 05:53 PM

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I'll take a marine layer any day over epic torching like we had in January 2014.

 

Besides, it's nice sign that gradients are turning strongly onshore and that the lower levels of the atmosphere are moistening up in advance of tomorrow's storm.

 

No drizzle here but the cloud bases are up to around 4,000 ft.

 

Enjoy tomorrow's storm while it lasts, because it looks dry again for a long time afterward.

 

High of 60º today was 16 degrees cooler than yesterday.

 

I really wonder if it is going to remain dry for as long as the models are indicating. It has already been dry for 3 weeks here in Socal and after one storm, I can't imagine another really lengthy dry spell like this in a strong El Nino year. If this were a weak ENSO or ENSO neutral event like the last couple of winters have been, then it wouldn't be surprising.



#142
Dan the Weatherman

Posted 30 January 2016 - 05:57 PM

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Do you have something more in particular in mind here Dan. ? .. Or is this idea meant more to suggest a "driver" perhaps more yet unknown. ?

 

I am thinking that the stronger than normal MJO activity for an El Nino year is possibly destructively interfering with the effects of the El Nino. The MJO has been active in the Indian Ocean or the Maritime Continent at times this season and I am wondering if it is injecting a La Nina-type signal into the atmosphere, thereby canceling out the El Nino signal, essentially creating a pseudo ENSO neutral type situation. If this is the case, it is no wonder we are getting very infrequent storminess down here in Socal, more reminiscent of the last 2 seasons minus the extreme heat. This is just a guess, though.



#143
richard mann

Posted 30 January 2016 - 11:55 PM

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I am thinking that the stronger than normal MJO activity for an El Nino year is possibly destructively interfering with ....


.. With respect, .. Every time I hear one of these types of arguments / this type of perspective put up as being of substance connected perhaps / .. the state of one's being responsible for or influencing anothers, my attitudeif not often voiced(in this case your mention of what the MJO, is doing.), .. is that this is just another "Oscillation". Being caused, to oscillate (i.e. change its character in some way.), generally over a more "multi-decadal" timeframe. And, that all of these different, noted, are being driven by something other, as yet not appreciated very well. ...

 

Or more basically (more conversationally.), .. What's making the MJO stronger. ? .. Do you think. ?


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#144
Temeku

Posted 31 January 2016 - 01:26 AM

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I like this drizzle, but it hasn't been measurable yet. At least the warmth is gone and the clouds are here :D


Temecula Seasonal Precipitation 2016-2017: 5.56" (+0.95")

Normal to-date precipitation: 4.61"
Season began July 1st, 2016.
 
My Seasonal Precipitation 2016-2017: 5.12"

Last updated on December 25th, 2016.

 

 

 


#145
Mr Marine Layer

Posted 31 January 2016 - 08:38 AM

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We are getting some moderate rainfall here, but still looks like the best stuff is passing to the north of us. Looks like the heaviest stuff is expected this afternoon, but radar loop does not show much heading our way.

#146
Eujunga

Posted 31 January 2016 - 08:50 AM

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If the forecast thinking is correct, we should start seeing some better radar returns as the storm develops through the morning.  I've been reading up on that "left front exit quadrant" stuff, and if I understand it correctly, the jet streak hasn't had time to develop fully yet.

 

Moderate rain here with 0.11" accumulation so far.


Tujunga, CA (15 miles N of Downtown L.A.) - Elev. 1,860 ft.

 

Eugene, OR (5 miles SSW) - Elev. 850 ft.


#147
WeatherCrossing

Posted 31 January 2016 - 09:21 AM

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Latest HRRR output shows heaviest rain moving through LA around noon!

 

Attached File  HRRR.png   223.2KB   0 downloads


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Premium graphics. Advanced display. WeatherCrossing.com


#148
Temeku

Posted 31 January 2016 - 10:09 AM

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It usually isn't all that windy at my location, but this morning we've been getting ferocious gusts every now and again. 0.12" so far.


Temecula Seasonal Precipitation 2016-2017: 5.56" (+0.95")

Normal to-date precipitation: 4.61"
Season began July 1st, 2016.
 
My Seasonal Precipitation 2016-2017: 5.12"

Last updated on December 25th, 2016.

 

 

 


#149
happ

Posted 31 January 2016 - 11:46 AM

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  • LocationRancho San Rafael [ele: 910'] °

It's been windy here also with a few moderate, briefly heavy showers.  Santa Barbara is getting pounded.  And it is heading this way.  Snow levels down to 2000' tonight.

 

0.48

 

L: 53 



#150
Bonk

Posted 31 January 2016 - 12:13 PM

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Moderate showers, brisk winds - 0.35" so far and hoping for a lot more.