Jump to content

East/Gulf Coast Weather 2016


Phil

Recommended Posts

Heaviest snow of the winter. :lol: Weird to see with leaves on some of the trees.

 

Another gust to 62mph. Visibility is near zero.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

We lost power here..really blows (no pun intended).

 

Snowshoe at 82mph, Spruce Knob at 77mph, Wintergreen at 74mph, IAD/Dulles at 67mph. Impressive windstorm throughout the DC area, to say the least.

 

Gusted to 68mph in my backyard. Third highest gust I've ever measured in a gradient wind event, next to the 72mph in 2011 and the 78mph in 2008.

 

The outhouse that was sitting to the side of my neighbors house (contractor doing some renovations) is now laying in the middle of the street. At least two shutters and a big piece of awning are dotting the landscape here this morning.

 

Will post some video later.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I guess I live in a sheltered area. Power outages north and south of me, and I've yet had the lights flicker. No debris on the road and the only wind damage I can see from my window is a power line tangled in a tree. Models give this even legs for the next hour or so.

Do you have notably higher elevations to your west within 5-10 miles? That'd do the trick. I'm sheltered from the NE in the same manner.

 

I also live in a very windy area on NW winds, because the Potomac River/Valley runs NW to SE, and it's directly to my NW for 30+ miles before bending S around my area. So it funnels the NW winds in here very efficiently.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Lost several large limbs in our yard, but otherwise our domain is intact. Actually recorded the 68mph gust that snapped two of the biggest limbs on video.

 

Pictures and video coming soon. Didn't realize how crappy my iPhone camcorder was, so didn't capture many visuals in the dark, but the sound is okay.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

There are hills to the north and west, but those are 15-25 miles out. There is a ridge line to our south by a couple miles.

Interesting. I'll do a little reanalysis later, but I can already see that the LLJ/windmax ended up a good 75 miles father south than originally modeled in the upper air data, which might have screwed you out of the stronger winds.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I think I enjoyed last night's event more than the blizzard. In a period of 8 hours, we observed:

 

1) A high of 68 degrees

2) A line of thunderstorms delivering 62mph winds, lightning, and graupel/small hail

3) A temperature drop from 61 to 43 over 25 minutes

4) A period of intense gradient winds between 60-70mph, gusts over 80mph in the mountains.

5) A snow squall delivering the highest-intensity snowfall of the winter, brief accumulations that melted quickly thereafter.

 

Probably the most exciting storm here since the cyclone back in February 2011, which had stronger gusts but no thunderstorm activity or snow squalls.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Video of the 68mph gust (really just audio given darkness) with two fairly audible tree limb snaps, one in the middle of the video, the other near the end (both were over 3" in diameter).

 

Gust hits at 0:45 into the video, I nearly lose my balance some time between 1:15-1:25.

 

At about 0:25 seconds in, I hear what sounds like a jet airplane in the distance. Soon I realize it's a massive gust of wind about 1/4 mile away, and I react accordingly. :lol:

 

I'd recommend cranking up your volume for a more realistic depiction of my experience. Smartphone camcorders are awful.

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?app=desktop&persist_app=1&v=SiPb5Z1_1Z8

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I'd like to get some warmer temperatures in here soon, before the Bermuda High develops and initiates humidity season.

 

As is depicted in the graph below, our *average* daily maximum dewpoint is 45F as of today. This increases to 54F by May 1st, and increases to reaches 64F by May 31st before peaking at 72F in late July.

 

Obviously these are just averages, but in a summer that is likely to be warmer than normal with a stronger than average W-ATL ridge, I want as many nice days as possible in the near term.

 

image.jpeg

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The GFS has snowfall and lows in the teens this weekend over much of the area. Would probably kill the young foliage and force a restart.

 

The cold/snow in April has become a theme in recent years.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

This is NOT the spring I ordered ! Where's my rain ??

_____________________________________________________

 

Forecasters say a dust storm about 100 miles wide blanketed much of the Texas Panhandle overnight Tuesday before moving on and dissipating.

The National Weather Service said a cold front that moved through Tuesday night had winds up to 60 mph and spread dirt picked up from Colorado and Kansas.

 

He said the dust was so heavy that evidence of the storm turned up on National Weather Service radar, with the system reaching as far south as Lubbock

 

Awesome picture

 

http://www.nbcdfw.com/weather/stories/Dust-Storm-100-Miles-Wide-Blankets-Much-of-Texas-Panhandle-374784161.html

  • Like 1

Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The impending La Niña has a different feel from the perspective of living on the east coast. Warm and dry with minimal snows. Still more than Seattle, but still.

Ironically, given this was our warmest winter on record, next winter will probably wind up colder overall.

 

La Niña winters tend to be warmer/drier overall, but the Arctic shots/cold periods tend to be more vigorous than those in El Niño winters.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Quite the vort plowing through today. Thunder-snow and numerous squalls look like a good possibility with this system, along with 40-50mph gusts.

 

Someone in SE PA could wind up with over 6" of snow under the norlun-trough feature, though temps/dynamics would need to line up right for that to occur.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Funny forecast for today:

 

Rest Of Today

Showers...snow showers...thunderstorms and sleet likely. Highs in the mid 40s. Northwest winds 15 to 20 mph with gusts up to 30 mph. Chance of precipitation 70 percent.

 

Tonight

Mostly cloudy with thunderstorms and snow showers likely in the evening...then mostly clear after midnight. Cold with lows in the mid 20s. Northwest winds 15 to 20 mph with gusts up to 35 mph. Chance of snow 70 percent.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Had a snow/sleet mix this morning, now awaiting the upper level vort. Trough axis still west of the mountains so once that moves through convective activity will pick up in earnest as h5 temps cool and CAPE increases.

 

Wind Advisory issued for 50mph gusts, too: http://forecast.weather.gov/showsigwx.php?warnzone=MDZ504&warncounty=MDC031&firewxzone=MDZ504&local_place1=Cabin%20John%20MD&product1=Wind+Advisory&lat=38.9843&lon=-77.1547#.VwkTc8j3aJI

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Man, that convergence zone is setting up right over Philadelphia.

 

Whoever gets inside that deformation band will easily accumulate 3-6", maybe more. Always sucks being on the edge of that thing.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Grandfather, NC just observed a 75mph wind gust. A few additional 70mph+ gusts along the WV ridges.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

This event has been an underperformer here. A trace of snow/sleet this morning followed by an uneventfully breezy day, highest gust is 34mph, so far.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

For once I'd love a solid week of mid/upper 70s highs with low humidity. I'm not sure this climate is capable of that in the spring, though. Just too much volatility.

 

Typical seasonal shift in the large scale gradients/height fields is showing up on the long range guidance. Won't be long before we enter our summer circulation (polar-stratospheric anticyclone, Bermuda High, jet retraction), probably 4-5 weeks from now.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Beautiful evening, was in the upper 60s as of 10pm with low humidity.

 

Average highs are now in the mid 60s, and will be in the low 70s by the end of the month. Looking forward to nice weather over the next 4-5 weeks.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Looks like a great stretch of real spring weather for this weekend into much of next week enjoy this nice spring weather while we can before the super 3 letter hot bath word takes over for the summer months hazy hot and humied torture.

Yeah, won't be long until the cicadas and katydids start screaming every night, and condensation is dripping from the windows as if it were raining. I'm sweating just thinking about it.

 

The fact that we spend the nicest days of the year fretting about summer humidity is a testament to how awful this climate gets during the warm season, honestly. I'm going to have to move eventually.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Meanwhile, the next 10 days look sunny, gorgeous, and virtually humidity-free. Absolute perfection by Mid-Atlantic standards.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Forecast here for Sunday-Tues is for up to 5" of rain/thunderstorms Flash flooding

 

65-75*. Should be interesting

  • Like 1

Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Enjoy perfection Phil. It's usually rare no matter where we live.

We're all preparing for the deluge here, which is typical weather for a Texas spring....feast or famine.

 

Luckily I dodged the big hail. It went on to the east side of the lake and we're on the west.

There's something about that big lake that feeds storms and they take a big breath and hail or tornadic winds tend to do their worst on the other side of the lake. This last big one was scary as the tornado was still up in the air but the winds were definitely nerve shattering as they hit about 4 a.m.

Night tornado seem to be far more regular here over the recent past. Those are really frightening.

  • Like 1

Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I love these April days with large diurnal temperature variations, maybe somewhat chillier than I'd prefer. Morning lows in the upper 20s/low 30s, afternoon highs in the upper 60s/low 70s.

 

This morning was nicer, low was 37F, with low/mid 70s probable by this afternoon.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Enjoy perfection Phil. It's usually rare no matter where we live.

We're all preparing for the deluge here, which is typical weather for a Texas spring....feast or famine.

 

Luckily I dodged the big hail. It went on to the east side of the lake and we're on the west.

 

There's something about that big lake that feeds storms and they take a big breath and hail or tornadic winds tend to do their worst on the other side of the lake. This last big one was scary as the tornado was still up in the air but the winds were definitely nerve shattering as they hit about 4 a.m. Night tornado seem to be far more regular here over the recent past. Those are really frightening.

I think you'll need the rain. Starting sometime in July, there's a chance you'll enter a relatively dry pattern as a heat ridge develops over the south-central/southeast states. This beast will probably end up torching the crap out of us, too as it expands northeastward. That said, I think June has a chance to be relatively cool/tolerable month for most.

 

Some of these summer analogs are absolute furnaces in July/August/September, though. Will be hard to avoid it, as IO/MT (Niña) forcing, in conjunction with broad/poleward-biased HCs/+QBO50 (more poleward/off-equator lift) will combine to force the NATL high W/NW, which would be brutal enough, even without the help of the anticipated NPAC height rises.

 

My hope is we end up on the eastern edge of the heat ridge. This would provide temporary relief from the heat/humidity, and would put us right in the path of Derecho activity/EML advection, should the gradient/streamflow aloft be sufficiently strong.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

If there's one thing I dislike about this climate (other than oppressive humidity), it's the fact that our severe weather season starts so much later than the rest of the country. It pains me to watch countless severe weather outbreaks slam the Plains, Midwest, Ohio Valley, and Southeast through March/April every year, while we have to wait until late May or early June in most years.

 

The good news is we'll have a conductive pattern for large scale severe weather later this month, so there's a chance some of the better activity could make it east of the Appalachians/above 40N after the 25th or so.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I think you'll need the rain. Starting sometime in July, there's a chance you'll enter a relatively dry pattern as a heat ridge develops over the south-central/southeast states. This beast will probably end up torching the crap out of us, too as it expands northeastward. That said, I think June has a chance to be relatively cool/tolerable month for most.

Some of these summer analogs are absolute furnaces in July/August/September, though. Will be hard to avoid it, as IO/MT (Niña) forcing, in conjunction with broad/poleward-biased HCs/+QBO50 (more poleward/off-equator lift) will combine to force the NATL high W/NW, which would be brutal enough, even without the help of the anticipated NPAC height rises.

My hope is we end up on the eastern edge of the heat ridge. This would provide temporary relief from the heat/humidity, and would put us right in the path of Derecho activity/EML advection, should the gradient/streamflow aloft be sufficiently strong.

We're used to 2 even 3 months without rain. July through August will be rough though.

So, in terms of temps are you speaking over 100's for us?

 

Are we headed for a Niña ?

Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

Link to comment
Share on other sites

We're used to 2 even 3 months without rain. July through August will be rough though.

So, in terms of temps are you speaking over 100's for us?

 

Are we headed for a Niña ?

Affirmative on the 100+ temperatures, and yeah, La Niña appears to be inevitable.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

After enduring three consecutive summers (2010-2012) with numerous bouts of 100+ degree heat, we've now gone three consecutive summers (2013-2015) without a single 100+ degree high.

 

That's bound to come to an end, very soon. Though we've had countless days in the mid/upper 90s over the last three years, that's typical here, and will occur in even the coolest, most tolerable summers imaginable nowadays.

 

Regarding the upcoming summer, the very warm offshore waters have grabbed my attention recently. Last summer, this bathwater was solely responsible for spiking dewpoints into the mid/upper 70s during patterns that would typically yield dewpoints in the mid/upper 60s.

 

These waters are actually warmer currently, relative to last year, so we might be in trouble if a true heat ridge pattern develops this year. Assuming the tropical forcings progress as anticipated, this is a legitimate possibility.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

So hurricanes. Right? Can I get you on record as "Phil predicts an active Mid Atlantic hurricane season"?

Haha, at the very least I'm on board for a relatively active Atlantic hurricane season. While I think the Gulf & Caribbean will be the hot zones, I have a hunch that we're going to be in the crosshairs of something significant this year.

 

If there were ever a year to watch for a major hurricane making landfall on the east coast, this would be it.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

We're actually in a 60+ year hurricane drought here. It's been a long time since a storm delivered legitimate hurricane conditions to this area. There were four storms that delivered cat1/cat2 conditions here from the 1820s to the 1950s, and a major hurricane is though to have struck sometime during the 1600s.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Beautiful day, currently 85/41 in DC, 81/40 in the shade back home. Downsloping W/NW breezes are winning over the bay breeze so far.

 

The lack of humidity makes early-season warmth very enjoyable.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Unfortunately, your content contains terms that we do not allow. Please edit your content to remove the highlighted words below.
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...

×
×
  • Create New...