Potential Winter Storm 3/23 & 3/24

[bud2380]

We've all been talking about it, might as well make it official.  here is the latest NAM.

 

 

http://i.imgur.com/BmbiHAG.gif

[bud2380]

And last nights GGEM which shows the main band to the north with the deformation band further south, similar to the Euro.

 

 

http://i.imgur.com/Ys43Ddc.png

[Tom]

Welcome to Spring 2016!  The battle has begun between the GEFS vs EPS...some differences this far out but fairly similar..who will score the coupe with this one???  The GFS won the battle for the EC Nor'Easter that is forming right now.  It had the storm barely hitting the coastline for days while the Euro/GGEM were farther inland 3-5+ days out.

 

06z GEFS...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2016032006/gfs-ememb_lowlocs_us_17.png

 

 

00z EPS,..

 

 

EPS is slower and strong earlier on as it phases quickly.  Takes a track in the Plains nearly identical to what happened back in LRC cycle #3 (GHD III).  I don't expect this storm to occlude like it did during the previous cycle.  Could we have another Blizzard in the Plains???

 

I have to shake my head and realize its Spring when I just looked at the full 00z EPS run through early April.  The Plains/Lakes look like a mid Winter snowfall map!  The Lakes are the epicenter...Control goes nuclear...lol.

[CentralNebWeather]

Have been away for several days, looks like a decent storm for Nebraska. Though Monday and Tuesday well into the 70's so ground would be warm. We will see, but unless at night I would seriously doubt those amounts. has happened before this late in March, but usually is gone quickly

[Tom]

Some massive hitters showing up on the 00z EPS and some hefty Spring snows...the storm track setting up over the next 2 weeks reminds me of the winter 2007-2008...cutter after cutter.  Hope next year we have something similar to this with more consistent blocking along with a La Nina.

[Money]

Ggem is a monster hit again for wisconsin except it's a tad north it looks like

[Money]

Have been away for several days, looks like a decent storm for Nebraska. Though Monday and Tuesday well into the 70's so ground would be warm. We will see, but unless at night I would seriously doubt those amounts. has happened before this late in March, but usually is gone quickly

If it snows hard enough it will stick regardless of the ground temp

[Money]

http://weather.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/234_100.gif

 

61 MM just north of the 850 line which is 2.4 QPF and that's not including what happened before or after that.

[gosaints]

Could easily see a rainer in all of our backyards. Nebraska trolling money... Payback

[Money]

GGEM:

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2016032012/gem_asnow_us_17.png

[Money]

Could easily see a rainer in all of our backyards. Nebraska trolling money... Payback

 

Possible. Anything is on the table yet 3 days out or so but getting 2 feet of snow would be pretty funny after this winter. 

[gosaints]

Possible. Anything is on the table yet 3 days out or so but getting 2 feet of snow would be pretty funny after this winter.

 

Ya foot plus would be fun just leary of climatology

[hlcater]

The EPS is too generous for my area, but I think the GFS may be too far north. I think the heaviest snowfall will settle just slightly north(20-30mi) of the current GGEM solution.

[Stormgeek]

GGEM:

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2016032012/gem_asnow_us_17.png

You see that white sliver in Minnesota? Hello, welcome to my winter. Haha, in all seriousness though, this thing seems to be coming in rather consistent on the models. Will be interesting to see just how much moisture can get wrapped up in it.

[Money]

Ya foot plus would be fun just leary of climatology

 

GGEM would be fun:

 

http://maps3.pivotalweather.com/models/ggem/20160320/12Z/f090/6hkucherasnowmw.png

 

6-12 inches of snow in 6 hours with 30 mph winds. 

[james1976]

Some massive hitters showing up on the 00z EPS and some hefty Spring snows...the storm track setting up over the next 2 weeks reminds me of the winter 2007-2008...cutter after cutter.  Hope next year we have something similar to this with more consistent blocking along with a La Nina.

I get buried in basically all of these.

[Money]

0z GGEM:

 

http://maps3.pivotalweather.com/models/ggem/20160320/00Z/f126/acckucherasnowmw.png

 

12z GGEM

 

http://maps3.pivotalweather.com/models/ggem/20160320/12Z/f114/acckucherasnowmw.png

[Money]

GGEM with storm after storm after storm in the long range. Has another clipper type system around Easter and then another one after that. 

[Money]

12z GFS finally starting to run. Out to HR 12

[Geos]

Some massive hitters showing up on the 00z EPS and some hefty Spring snows...the storm track setting up over the next 2 weeks reminds me of the winter 2007-2008...cutter after cutter.  Hope next year we have something similar to this with more consistent blocking along with a La Nina.

There is some epic results in there. 

 

E8 especially. Seeing E21 would be something. 

[Money]

Def. nudge south on 12z GFS compared to 6z GFS.

 

A lot more FZR showing up than previous runs. 

[Money]

12z GFS:

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/models/gfshires/20160320/12Z/f096/acckucherasnowmw.png

 

6z GFS:

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/models/gfshires/20160320/06Z/f102/acckucherasnowmw.png

[Geos]

How strong that first system is on Tuesday will determine how fast that drop can drop through. 

 

Reminds me of the leap day/March 1st storm.

[Money]

Low tracks to the IL/WI border this run compared to Milwaukee on 6z. Pretty consistent. 

[bud2380]

GFS maintains its track into SE Iowa.  I think that is ultimately how it will play out.

[Money]

That's 2 models so far throwing out 24+ amounts. Euro running now. 

[Tom]

No reason to discount a track near Chicago.  All the models are showing an amped up storm.  Needless to say, this will be another fun storm to track in late March.  

[Geos]

No reason to discount a track near Chicago.  All the models are showing an amped up storm.  Needless to say, this will be another fun storm to track in late March.  

 

All depends on how strong the east side of the high is. Stronger the high to the east the more the band will be west to east. 

[bud2380]

The new euro must run later as well. Used to start at 12:50 but still hasn't started running

[Money]

It's out to 48 on pivotal

[Geos]

The new euro must run later as well. Used to start at 12:50 but still hasn't started running

 

It's getting there. Little slower than normal.

[Money]

993 in central ks at 72

[Geos]

So far everything exactly the same at hour 60. Low starts in SE CO.

[Money]

995 in western mo at 96

[Money]

995 in western mo at 96

[Geos]

993 in central ks at 72

 

The actual strongest part of the low is digging towards Wichita at that hour. 

 

F-Gen band exactly like last night. Scary similar. 

[Money]

Looks really similar to 0z last night

[jcwxguy]

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/models/ecmwf/20160320/12Z/f072/sfcmslpconus.png

[jcwxguy]

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/models/ecmwf/20160320/12Z/f096/sfcmslpconus.png

[Tom]

12z Euro is 2mb stronger same time at HR96 as yesterday's 12z HR 120 run..