Potential Winter Storm 3/23 & 3/24

[gosaints]

Geos has got to.have something that pushes this south.

[Money]

Nams going north this run

[Madtown]

So those to the north buying the gfs and those to the south riding the euro. Let the fun begin

[gosaints]

So those to the north buying the gfs and those to the south riding the euro. Let the fun begin

I could care less.

[Money]

NAM at HR 84:

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/models/nam/20160320/18Z/f84/crefptypemw.png

 

Tons of sleet this run.

 

Snowfall map with a ton more to come:

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/models/nam/20160320/18Z/f84/acckucherasnowmw.png

[jcwxguy]

oax

 

 

 

 

WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE INTERESTING AS A SIGNIFICANT EARLY SPRING
STORM SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE AREA. STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
THE FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY WITH SNOW SPREADING ACROSS EASTERN
NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA DURING THE DAY AND EVENING. POTENTIAL
FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW LOOKS POSSIBLE FOR WESTERN AND NORTHERN PARTS
OF THE AREA BUT TIMING AND TRACK OF SYSTEM UNCERTAIN SO NO
HEADLINES AT THIS TIME. IN ADDITION...SOME THUNDERSTORMS ALSO
LIKELY IN SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA. LOOKS LIKE SPRING
IS HERE.

 

[CentralNebWeather]

Nws Hastings:

 

...the big concern is snow potential

Wednesday afternoon into night. Models have generally brought in

cold air sooner...thus...increasing our shot at some

accumulating snow...and even blizzard-like conditions given the

expected wind speed. Surface pressure gradient looks much stronger

and we could easily have wind gusts well over 40 to 45 miles per hour. This

will at least impact visibility by late afternoon/evening and

spread north to south as the colder air turns precipitation to

snow. I am not bringing in the colder air quite as soon as

models are trending...but I am headed in that direction. Its too

early to tell...but a closed low could cross the County Warning Area with

deformation band potentially giving US significant amounts of snow

from late Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday night.

[Tom]

 

Nws Hastings:

 

...the big concern is snow potential

Wednesday afternoon into night. Models have generally brought in

cold air sooner...thus...increasing our shot at some

accumulating snow...and even blizzard-like conditions given the

expected wind speed. Surface pressure gradient looks much stronger

and we could easily have wind gusts well over 40 to 45 miles per hour. This

will at least impact visibility by late afternoon/evening and

spread north to south as the colder air turns precipitation to

snow. I am not bringing in the colder air quite as soon as

models are trending...but I am headed in that direction. Its too

early to tell...but a closed low could cross the County Warning Area with

deformation band potentially giving US significant amounts of snow

from late Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday night.[/quote

 

 

GHD Storm repeat????

[Money]

Sounds like euro ensembles are similar to the OP.

[james1976]

Des Moines NWS going with 1-3"
I DID NOT CHANGE THE GOING FORECAST MUCH  
EXCEPT TO TWEAK TIMING OF THUNDER POTENTIAL ACROSS THE SOUTH AND  
BEGIN TRYING TO FORECAST SNOWFALL AMOUNTS NORTH...WHICH ARE STILL  
DIFFICULT BUT IT LOOKS LIKE A 1 TO 3 INCH SNOWFALL EVENT THROUGH  
THURSDAY FOR SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE NORTH...AND POSSIBLY INTO  
CENTRAL IOWA IF YOU BELIEVE THE EURO

[MKEstorm]

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=MKX&issuedby=MKX&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1

 

 

 

AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
313 PM CDT SUN MAR 20 2016

 

 

.TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

AN EARLY SPRING STORM WILL IMPACT THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT
LAKES DURING THIS PERIOD. THE PEAK PERIOD IS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. THE ECMWF IS FAIRLY STEADY IN ITS MORE
SOUTHERN AND SLOWER SOLUTION WITH THE LOW TRACK. THE EC SFC LOW
EVENTUALLY TRACKS BETWEEN CHICAGO AND INDIANAPOLIS. THE GFS HAD
TECHNICAL PROBLEMS THIS MORNING CAUSING IT TO RUN LATE AND
WITHOUT SOME DATA SUITES. IT IS SUSPECT BUT HAS ALSO PRODUCED A
STEADY SOLUTION FROM ITS PREVIOUS RUN. THAT TRACK TAKES IT NORTH
OF CHICAGO...OVER WAUKEGAN OR KENOSHA. THE CANADIAN TAKES IT OVER
CHICAGO. THE OFFICIAL WPC TRACK LOOKS TO BE A BLEND OF THE
CANADIAN AND THE ECMWF. THIS IS A COLDER SOLUTION THAN WHAT WE
PREVIOUSLY HAD AND IS STARTING TO LOOK LIKE A SNOWSTORM IN THE
MAKING FOR CENTRAL INTO PARTS OF SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. AS MENTIONED
IN PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS...THIS STORM HAS A LOT GOING FOR IT.
COPIOUS MOISTURE...STRONG UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS WITH UPPER JET
DIVERGENCE AND VORTICITY ADVECTION. A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WILL
PROVIDE IMPRESSIVE LOW LEVEL MOIST ISENTROPIC ASCENT. THIS TIME
OF YEAR...TEMPERATURES IN THE BOUNDARY LEVEL TENDS TO BE
WARMER...SO SOME ADJUSTMENT NORTH IN THE MAIN SNOW AREA NEEDS TO
BE DONE RELATIVE TO THE LOW TRACK. FOR NOW...THE BEST SNOWS ARE
LOCATED NORTH OF MILWAUKEE AND MADISON...BUT WE CAN/T RULE OUT A
DRAMATIC SHIFT SOUTH IF THE ECMWF PROVES TO BE THE FAVORED TRACK.

THE SNOW SHOULD WIND DOWN QUICKLY ON THURSDAY...ALTHOUGH THE ECMWF
IS SHOWING THINGS HANGING ON WELL INTO THE EVENING. STAY TUNED AS
THINGS WILL SURELY CHANGE.

 

[Money]

GFS going back north lol 

[CentralNebWeather]

Nws Hastings:

 

...the big concern is snow potential

Wednesday afternoon into night. Models have generally brought in

cold air sooner...thus...increasing our shot at some

accumulating snow...and even blizzard-like conditions given the

expected wind speed. Surface pressure gradient looks much stronger

and we could easily have wind gusts well over 40 to 45 miles per hour. This

will at least impact visibility by late afternoon/evening and

spread north to south as the colder air turns precipitation to

snow. I am not bringing in the colder air quite as soon as

models are trending...but I am headed in that direction. Its too

early to tell...but a closed low could cross the County Warning Area with

deformation band potentially giving US significant amounts of snow

from late Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday night.[/quote

 

 

GHD Storm repeat????

 

That would be something. I am not getting too excited yet, but my kids are asking questions about a snow day. Oh kids.

[Money]

18z GFS

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/models/gfshires/20160320/18Z/f096/acckucherasnowmw.png

 

LP cuts from NW IL up towards Milwaukee. 

[Money]

Towards Nebraska: 

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/models/gfshires/20160320/18Z/f102/acckucherasnowc.png

[Tom]

12z EPS has nice clustering right over KC at HR 84 and heads almost due east towards STL into N OH.  Identical track on the Euro control.

 

Big uptick in snow fall over IA/WI/MI on the EPS...

[Tom]

To see a 15" mean right over MKE 3-4 days out on the EPS tells me that this may be something special.  I have not seen a mean snowfall map as such this far out for a particular storm all season long.

[MKEstorm]

So, depending on which model I look at...I'll be getting anywhere from 0.8 - 30 inches.....Ya, ok!

[gosaints]

Msp....

[Tom]

As it stands now, 12z GEFS are about 100-150 miles north of the EPS in the IL/IN/MI region.  They have their differences once it gets passed KC area.

[Tom]

12z GGEM ensembles have a track from KC/Kankakee, IL/DTX,,,

[Madtown]

Not even remotely excited for this as my mind is telling me north is the smart play.

[Tom]

Quote from Jim Flower's:

 

 

 

Morning euro is colder, farther south and has more snow Wednesday night into Thursday...this is the Hires euro, old euro has been replaced.

[GDR]

Take it north! Take it north! Take it north!

[Geos]

Des Moines NWS going with 1-3"

I DID NOT CHANGE THE GOING FORECAST MUCH  

EXCEPT TO TWEAK TIMING OF THUNDER POTENTIAL ACROSS THE SOUTH AND  

BEGIN TRYING TO FORECAST SNOWFALL AMOUNTS NORTH...WHICH ARE STILL  

DIFFICULT BUT IT LOOKS LIKE A 1 TO 3 INCH SNOWFALL EVENT THROUGH  

THURSDAY FOR SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE NORTH...AND POSSIBLY INTO  

CENTRAL IOWA IF YOU BELIEVE THE EURO

 

Lol, being super careful I would say!

 

Anything weaker will be south. 

[Geos]

As it stands now, 12z GEFS are about 100-150 miles north of the EPS in the IL/IN/MI region.  They have their differences once it gets passed KC area.

 

For some reason the GFS does not take the front completely to the bottom of the lake, which I don't buy. GFS did something similar for the Leap Day storm.

 

The differences in the speed of the front is the big ticket item. GFS has the front passing through here about 9pm Wednesday, EURO is about 6pm. But the EURO doesn't stop the front at all goes all the way to Springfield. 

[Madtown]

So what's everyone's guess....

Milwaukee 4"

Madison 6"

La Crosse 12"

Fond du Lac 15"

Dubuque 9"

[bud2380]

I signed up for a 1 month trial on Accuweather so I've got some text output from the Euro. Some of it is absolutely absurd. 

 

Here's my backyard Iowa City and then Cedar Rapids. I live directly in between both.

 

IOW

WED 12Z 23-MAR   5.7     6.3    1007      77      99    0.03     558     552    WED 15Z 23-MAR   3.6     4.7    1010      90      99    0.07     558     551    WED 18Z 23-MAR   2.7     3.7    1010      90     100    0.16     558     550    WED 21Z 23-MAR   2.4     3.5    1010      91      97    0.06     558     550    THU 00Z 24-MAR   1.8     2.5    1011      91      93    0.12     557     548    THU 03Z 24-MAR   1.2     3.6    1011      90      76    0.07     557     548    THU 06Z 24-MAR   0.7     1.3    1011      91      88    0.18     555     547    THU 09Z 24-MAR   0.1     1.7    1009      89      87    0.08     553     546    THU 12Z 24-MAR  -0.6     2.3    1007      85      51    0.14     551     545    THU 15Z 24-MAR  -1.0     0.8    1006      87      97    0.14     549     544    THU 18Z 24-MAR  -0.9    -2.7    1003      89      94    0.44     545     542    THU 21Z 24-MAR  -0.7    -6.8    1004      88      64    0.23     541     537    FRI 00Z 25-MAR  -1.1    -8.2    1006      86      85    0.31     540     535    FRI 03Z 25-MAR  -1.9    -8.7    1009      86      97    0.04     540     533    FRI 06Z 25-MAR  -2.9    -7.5    1011      85      98    0.06     541     532

CID

WED 12Z 23-MAR   4.9     5.4    1008      81     100    0.06     557     551    WED 15Z 23-MAR   3.1     3.7    1010      90     100    0.10     558     549    WED 18Z 23-MAR   2.2     2.4    1011      90     100    0.23     558     549    WED 21Z 23-MAR   1.8     2.0    1011      91      99    0.06     557     548    THU 00Z 24-MAR   1.2     1.2    1012      90      98    0.12     557     547    THU 03Z 24-MAR   0.4     1.2    1012      89      89    0.11     556     546    THU 06Z 24-MAR  -0.2    -0.2    1012      90      97    0.33     555     545    THU 09Z 24-MAR  -0.4     0.1    1010      88      90    0.12     553     545    THU 12Z 24-MAR  -0.9    -0.4    1008      86      68    0.25     550     544    THU 15Z 24-MAR  -1.5    -1.6    1007      88      94    0.15     548     543    THU 18Z 24-MAR  -1.6    -4.3    1004      90      97    0.44     545     542    THU 21Z 24-MAR  -1.3    -8.0    1005      90      85    0.32     541     537    FRI 00Z 25-MAR  -1.7    -8.4    1007      88      95    0.47     540     534    FRI 03Z 25-MAR  -2.4    -8.4    1010      87      98    0.06     540     533    FRI 06Z 25-MAR  -3.4    -6.5    1012      85      97    0.10     541     532 

Now here is where things get stupid.  Check out how much QPF Des Moines gets with temps below 0 at the surface and 850

WED 15Z 23-MAR   4.9     4.9    1008      89     100    0.06     557     551    WED 18Z 23-MAR   3.4     3.8    1008      90      98    0.13     557     551    WED 21Z 23-MAR   2.9     2.3    1009      90      94    0.08     556     549    THU 00Z 24-MAR   1.6     1.2    1010      93      79    0.16     555     547    THU 03Z 24-MAR   1.1     1.8    1011      91     100    0.22     555     547    THU 06Z 24-MAR   0.2     1.5    1009      89      92    0.51     553     546    THU 09Z 24-MAR  -0.3    -0.2    1007      90      60    0.17     550     545    THU 12Z 24-MAR  -0.8    -3.4    1008      90      71    0.26     547     541    THU 15Z 24-MAR  -1.7    -5.2    1008      89      83    0.17     545     539    THU 18Z 24-MAR  -2.5    -7.4    1008      91      97    0.49     542     536    THU 21Z 24-MAR  -2.2    -8.3    1009      92      99    0.54     541     533    FRI 00Z 25-MAR  -1.7    -7.7    1012      89      96    0.73     542     533    FRI 03Z 25-MAR  -1.5    -6.7    1014      82      85    0.06     544     533    FRI 06Z 25-MAR  -4.7    -5.3    1014      83      32    0.06     545     533 

That is 2.31" just from the part of the storm that is entirely below freezing.  Insane. 

[bud2380]

If anyone else wants text output let me know the 3 digit code for your area. 

 

I think I need at least 2 more runs of the Euro before I start believing in any of this.  The deformation band is still 4 days away. 

[Money]

Watching the badger games drinking some beer and waiting for the 0z runs

 

lol

[Geos]

If anyone else wants text output let me know the 3 digit code for your area. 

 

I think I need at least 2 more runs of the Euro before I start believing in any of this.  The deformation band is still 4 days away. 

 

UGN

 

Well if I have to guess now.

 

So what's everyone's guess....

Milwaukee 10"

Madison 15"

La Crosse 11"

Fond du Lac 18"

Dubuque 9" 

[Money]

Bud

 

Kosh

 

Thanks

[gabel23]

If anyone else wants text output let me know the 3 digit code for your area. 

 

I think I need at least 2 more runs of the Euro before I start believing in any of this.  The deformation band is still 4 days away.

 

OLU please, thanks!

[MKEstorm]

The Weather Channel has my forecast for Thursday and Thursday night 8-13 inches of snow with winds gusting over 50 mph at times! LOL! So, it's gotta be right

[Madtown]

MSN please

[Geos]

The Weather Channel has my forecast for Thursday and Thursday night 8-13 inches of snow with winds gusting over 50 mph at times! LOL! So, it's gotta be right

 

O yeah - they jumped on it. lol

https://weather.com/storms/winter/video/more-snow-headed-for-parts-of-midwest-next-week

[bud2380]

UGN

WED 09Z 23-MAR   2.0     4.1    1010      90      99    0.07     555     547    WED 12Z 23-MAR   1.7     3.0    1012      91      98    0.10     556     546    WED 15Z 23-MAR   1.6     0.8    1014      92     100    0.06     557     546    WED 18Z 23-MAR   1.3     0.1    1015      93     100    0.28     557     546    WED 21Z 23-MAR   1.1    -1.5    1015      92     100    0.25     557     545    THU 00Z 24-MAR   0.6    -1.8    1016      92     100    0.40     558     545    THU 03Z 24-MAR  -0.4    -1.6    1017      91      99    0.13     558     544    THU 06Z 24-MAR  -0.9    -1.1    1016      90      95    0.26     556     544    THU 09Z 24-MAR  -1.4    -1.7    1014      88      99    0.14     555     544    THU 12Z 24-MAR  -1.6    -2.6    1013      88      98    0.38     554     543    THU 15Z 24-MAR  -1.0    -2.0    1012      86      91    0.13     553     544    THU 18Z 24-MAR  -0.7    -1.6    1009      89      91    0.34     551     544    THU 21Z 24-MAR  -0.7    -2.2    1004      90     100    0.40     548     545    FRI 00Z 25-MAR  -0.9    -4.3    1003      89      96    0.72     544     541    FRI 03Z 25-MAR  -1.0    -6.3    1003      88      75    0.14     541     539    FRI 06Z 25-MAR  -1.1    -6.7    1003      87      71    0.20     538     536    FRI 09Z 25-MAR  -1.4    -8.9    1004      86      80    0.04     537     534    FRI 12Z 25-MAR  -1.7    -9.6    1006      83      93    0.06     539     533

[MKEstorm]

If anyone else wants text output let me know the 3 digit code for your area. 

 

I think I need at least 2 more runs of the Euro before I start believing in any of this.  The deformation band is still 4 days away. 

 

 

Can I see MKE please. Thanks!

[bud2380]

MSN

WED 12Z 23-MAR   0.1     0.7    1014      79      87    0.01     554     542    WED 15Z 23-MAR   0.7    -0.4    1016      72      90    0.04     555     542    WED 18Z 23-MAR   1.2    -1.6    1016      72      92    0.12     555     542    WED 21Z 23-MAR   0.6    -2.4    1017      75      93    0.14     555     542    THU 00Z 24-MAR  -0.5    -3.1    1017      71      95    0.22     555     541    THU 03Z 24-MAR  -1.5    -2.6    1018      74      98    0.11     556     541    THU 06Z 24-MAR  -1.5    -3.5    1017      83      99    0.23     554     540    THU 09Z 24-MAR  -2.1    -5.2    1016      88      98    0.15     552     539    THU 12Z 24-MAR  -3.3    -4.2    1015      87      97    0.39     551     540    THU 15Z 24-MAR  -2.5    -4.9    1014      83      98    0.07     550     539    THU 18Z 24-MAR  -1.7    -6.1    1011      83      96    0.16     548     540    THU 21Z 24-MAR  -2.0    -6.6    1008      87      99    0.22     545     539    FRI 00Z 25-MAR  -2.6    -8.2    1008      89      99    0.54     542     536    FRI 03Z 25-MAR  -3.3    -8.4    1008      88      97    0.24     540     534    FRI 06Z 25-MAR  -4.0    -9.3    1009      87      97    0.38     539     532    FRI 09Z 25-MAR  -4.2    -8.2    1009      84      94    0.07     538     531    FRI 12Z 25-MAR  -5.1    -5.5    1011      77      74    0.09     540     532 

OSH

THU 00Z 24-MAR   0.0    -5.7    1020      56      55    0.03     553     537    THU 03Z 24-MAR   0.0    -5.9    1021      59      59    0.03     554     537    THU 06Z 24-MAR  -0.5    -6.1    1020      68      73    0.04     552     537    THU 09Z 24-MAR  -1.7    -6.2    1019      74      90    0.03     551     536    THU 12Z 24-MAR  -2.0    -6.1    1018      75      92    0.10     550     536    THU 15Z 24-MAR  -0.9    -7.3    1018      72      97    0.01     550     536    THU 18Z 24-MAR  -0.5    -6.5    1015      74      97    0.04     548     536    THU 21Z 24-MAR  -1.1    -5.5    1012      78      96    0.10     546     536    FRI 00Z 25-MAR  -1.8    -6.2    1011      83      99    0.30     544     535    FRI 03Z 25-MAR  -2.6    -6.4    1011      84      91    0.22     541     533    FRI 06Z 25-MAR  -2.7    -7.8    1010      83      98    0.37     539     532    FRI 09Z 25-MAR  -2.8    -7.5    1010      81      95    0.09     538     530    FRI 12Z 25-MAR  -3.2    -5.7    1011      72      75    0.11     539     531 

[bud2380]

MKE

WED 18Z 23-MAR   0.9    -1.8    1016      87      97    0.16     556     543    WED 21Z 23-MAR   0.4    -3.5    1017      89     100    0.18     556     542    THU 00Z 24-MAR   0.1    -2.7    1018      89     100    0.33     556     542    THU 03Z 24-MAR   0.0    -3.3    1019      93     100    0.15     556     541    THU 06Z 24-MAR  -1.4    -4.0    1018      86      99    0.27     555     541    THU 09Z 24-MAR  -1.6    -4.6    1016      82      98    0.10     553     541    THU 12Z 24-MAR  -2.1    -4.8    1016      86     100    0.30     553     541    THU 15Z 24-MAR  -1.6    -4.0    1014      87      98    0.14     552     541    THU 18Z 24-MAR  -1.4    -3.8    1011      88      98    0.27     550     541    THU 21Z 24-MAR  -1.2    -5.1    1007      89      99    0.30     548     542    FRI 00Z 25-MAR  -1.5    -7.6    1006      90      99    0.71     544     539    FRI 03Z 25-MAR  -1.7    -8.0    1005      90      96    0.33     541     537    FRI 06Z 25-MAR  -1.7    -8.2    1005      87      93    0.45     539     535    FRI 09Z 25-MAR  -2.0    -9.7    1005      86      91    0.06     537     533    FRI 12Z 25-MAR  -2.4   -10.0    1007      85      91    0.10     538     533    FRI 15Z 25-MAR  -1.6    -9.0    1010      78      74    0.02     542     533    FRI 18Z 25-MAR  -0.5    -8.8    1013      71      57    0.02     543     533 

OLU

WED 18Z 23-MAR   3.0    -0.2    1007      91      97    0.06     553     548    WED 21Z 23-MAR   2.0    -2.6    1007      92      91    0.10     552     546    THU 00Z 24-MAR   0.9    -3.8    1010      90      94    0.36     551     543    THU 03Z 24-MAR  -0.4    -5.4    1013      90      98    0.27     550     540    THU 06Z 24-MAR  -1.4    -7.1    1014      88     100    0.41     548     537    THU 09Z 24-MAR  -1.7    -7.5    1014      87      98    0.15     546     535    THU 12Z 24-MAR  -2.3    -5.5    1015      85      94    0.27     545     534    THU 15Z 24-MAR  -2.5    -5.6    1016      79      87    0.05     546     533    THU 18Z 24-MAR  -1.0    -4.5    1016      76      46    0.05     547     534