April 2016 Observations and Discussion

[Geos]

The second month of meteorological spring is almost upon us. It's looking for like the beginning of March right now though. 

 

GFS 500mb pattern for the 2nd.

 

[Tom]

The second month of meteorological spring is almost upon us. It's looking for like the beginning of March right now though. 

 

GFS 500mb pattern for the 2nd.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016032512/gfs_z500a_namer_34.png

More like average highs in early February!

[Geos]

More like average highs in early February!

 

Yeah that's more like it.

 

 

The end of the EURO had highs in the 40s for northern GA! Freezing conditions all the way down to the border of OK.

[Tom]

00z Euro runs of daytime highs for the 2nd/3rd...

[Tony]

Let's just get on with Spring as this really sucks. Enough cold already and no more flakes!

[Tom]

12z Euro has -20C 850's near GoSaints area Day 9....LOL

[gosaints]

12z Euro has -20C 850's near GoSaints area Day 9....LOL

Will live through it... +8 for march brrrr..

 

Wont last long..

[Tom]

Will live through it... +8 for march brrrr..

 

Wont last long..

That's not the point...lol...phenomenal to see this type of pattern during a muted PV...especially in early April~!

[Tom]

+8 is phenomenal as well... Different strokes for different fokes.

Wonder if April does a complete reversal before the Midwest/Lakes pop back into a real Spring like pattern.

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/monthly/images/summaryCFSv2.NaT2m.201604.gif

[gosaints]

 

 

Anytime there has been sustained cold this year the pattern overall has been terrible for any sensible weather

[Geos]

I suspect this coming cool down will hold these lake temps pretty much where they are now.

 

[Geos]

I think the 18z was even colder. 0z almost out.

 

[Money]

12z on Sunday, April 3rd:

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/models/gfshires/20160326/00Z/f204/sfctconus.png

[Geos]

12z on Sunday, April 3rd:

 

 

Trough is coming trending towards the front range.

 

40s into northern FL!

[Money]

You don't see to many highs in the 15-20 degree range with hardly any snowcover in April:

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/models/gfshires/20160326/00Z/f216/sfctconus.png

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/models/gfshires/20160326/00Z/f216/sfctcfsranomconus.png

[Geos]

0z is flipping cold.

 

 

Some snow in the upper Midwest as well.

 

[hlcater]

0z is flipping cold.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016032600/gfs_T850_ncus_35.png

 

Some snow in the upper Midwest as well.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016032600/gfs_asnow_ncus_41.png

Heck, thats almost record breaking in january

 

Edit: I lied, I was looking at the anomaly map and thought that was actual temps. I should really quit this. Don't ask how or why I thought those were actual temps lol. That takes a special kind of stupid which I apparently possess. 

[gosaints]

2 days max on the euro

[Geos]

12z is more or less the same.

 

 

Question is, is that the end of the troughs. Looking at the last few frames that Aleutian trough seems parked there and is pumping the west coast ridge.

 

 

[gosaints]

Backing off has begun. Ensemble spread huge

[Geos]

-16°- -20° 850mb air makes it into southern WI still pretty cold for early April. High in the 20s here forecasted for next Sunday on the EURO. Nice snowstorm for the upper Midwest around Day 9 and then another trough behind it.

 

[gosaints]

Slowly but.surely drifting further and further east

[Niko]

So, the cold coming late next week is certainly not welcome by me. Not when we will be in early April by then. My highs are expected to be near freezing or lower and lows in the teens with snowsqualls.

[gosaints]

Gfs now.one day in low 30s here then.back to the forties

[bud2380]

A little off topic here but this is too cool to not share. How many of you remember the classic weather channel local forecast? I loved the extended forecast graphics. Well a website called weatherdaddy has exact replicas of the old twc local forecasts. Below is a screenshot of what it looks like. I chose billings, MT because they have snow in the forecast and I wanted to see the old school "snow" graphic/forecast.

[Tom]

A little off topic here but this is too cool to not share. How many of you remember the classic weather channel local forecast? I loved the extended forecast graphics. Well a website called weatherdaddy has exact replicas of the old twc local forecasts. Below is a screenshot of what it looks like. I chose billings, MT because they have snow in the forecast and I wanted to see the old school "snow" graphic/forecast. image.png

I just had a flash back of when I was a kid watching the TWC! Those were the days...I remember waking up in the morning and getting butterflies in my stomach hoping to see Snow in the forecast. Nothing beats those long write ups and big snowflakes in your local forecast indicating heavy snow and wind! Thanks for sharing! Thought I'd never see those graphics again.

[NEJeremy]

Yeah where it just says "snow" in the last part of the graphic showing the extended forecast always made me get excited when I saw that, thinking there was a big snowstorm coming!

[FV-Mike]

I just had a flash back of when I was a kid watching the TWC! Those were the days...I remember waking up in the morning and getting butterflies in my stomach hoping to see Snow in the forecast. Nothing beats those long write ups and big snowflakes in your local forecast indicating heavy snow and wind! Thanks for sharing! Thought I'd never see those graphics again.

Loved the "wintry mix" icon

[Geos]

Little bit of snow showing up in the next 10 days.

 

 

GEFS has the trough directed a bit more south.

 

[Geos]

Yeah where it just says "snow" in the last part of the graphic showing the extended forecast always made me get excited when I saw that, thinking there was a big snowstorm coming!

 

Same here. 

 

I miss the days when there was heavy snow warnings!

[gosaints]

The much anticipated artic outbreak has died

[Madtown]

Nothing below 40 here for the next 10 days

[jaster220]

Yeah where it just says "snow" in the last part of the graphic showing the extended forecast always made me get excited when I saw that, thinking there was a big snowstorm coming!

 

I remember watching their "extended forecast" segment circa winter of '85/86 and they were showing out in the 5-8? day range. They were pretty accurate back then (in a general synoptic wx sense) and if you saw the "heavy snow" white shaded area overhead, it usually verified in the form of a storm of some sort. That's the graphic I got most excited to see. As I recall in those days, there weren't many options for looking that far ahead for clues about when the next chance for significant snow would come. NWS's forecasts (and even Skillling's) at that range never indicated more than a "chance of snow" moniker.  

 

Somebody on Amwx forums a few yrs back had posted saved TV screen caps from their local TWC broadcast during the March '93 Storm of the Century while their town in the Carolinas was under a Bliz Warning. This was somewhere far south where that NEVER happens, and here it was March already. Crazy cool text output with a totally red screen like "this is the end of the world as you know it" graphics   (wish I had a link) 

[jaster220]

The much anticipated artic outbreak has died

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

(j/k)

[Tom]

Signals pointing towards an impressive ridge popping by mid month and holding after the coming cool down to open the month.

[bud2380]

I remember watching their "extended forecast" segment circa winter of '85/86 and they were showing out in the 5-8? day range. They were pretty accurate back then (in a general synoptic wx sense) and if you saw the "heavy snow" white shaded area overhead, it usually verified in the form of a storm of some sort. That's the graphic I got most excited to see. As I recall in those days, there weren't many options for looking that far ahead for clues about when the next chance for significant snow would come. NWS's forecasts (and even Skillling's) at that range never indicated more than a "chance of snow" moniker.  

 

Somebody on Amwx forums a few yrs back had posted saved TV screen caps from their local TWC broadcast during the March '93 Storm of the Century while their town in the Carolinas was under a Bliz Warning. This was somewhere far south where that NEVER happens, and here it was March already. Crazy cool text output with a totally red screen like "this is the end of the world as you know it" graphics   (wish I had a link)

 

Here is the red screen you mentioned. Weatherdaddy has that too.

[gosaints]

Geos is sweating looking at his historic cold fizzle

[Geos]

Still looking like a pretty cold weekend on tap. Ok, it's not historic but close to 15° below normal here.

 

 

Except for 4 days out of the 0z run it stays in the 30s and 40s around here.

[jaster220]

Still looking like a pretty cold weekend on tap. Ok, it's not historic but close to 15° below normal here.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016032900/gfs_T2ma_namer_23.png

 

Except for 4 days out of the 0z run it stays in the 30s and 40s around here.

 

Ok, but why exactly would anyone have any use for that at this time of year when it's spring? I sure don't

[Tom]

CFSv2 flipping back and forth this month trying to figure out what to do in April.  Maybe this time it's right.  Looks warm but rather dry overall.

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/monthly/images/summaryCFSv2.NaT2m.201604.gif

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/monthly/images/summaryCFSv2.NaPrec.201604.gif