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2016-17 La Nina Watch/Discussion


Tom

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There has been talk of a much anticipated La Nina developing later on this year.  As the current El Nino continues to collapse from its record setting 3.1C earlier this Winter, equatorial waters have cooled dramatically and are forecast to reach La Nada territory by early Summer.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_update/sstaanim.gif

 

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_update/ssta_c.gif

 

 

Based on trends, I'd imagine next month we see those colder sub surface waters make its way to the top.

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ocean/anim/wkxzteq_anm.gif

 

 

 

 

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Cold water are getting pretty close to the top now. About 30 m it looks like.

Was thinking about a la nina watch thread myself, glad you started it Tom.

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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..has to be better than an "strong/record El Nino watch", one of my least favorite wx events. Ranks up there near the 2-month drought accompanied by a heat-wave..

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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The CFSv2 "glitch" fix in the Atlantic has been completed...what a difference in SST's in the central Pacific.  It now shows what all the other modeling was indicating and a La Nada by June and a mod/strong La Nina by December!

 

 

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Now look at the CFSv2's latest ensemble run...

 

It went from this....

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/imagesInd2/nino34Mon.gif

 

 

 

To this...

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/imagesInd3/nino34Mon.gif

 

Notice the last 8 members (which are the blue lines) and how much of a stronger signal they are suggesting.  Wacky!

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The CFSv2 "glitch" fix in the Atlantic has been completed...what a difference in SST's in the central Pacific.  It now shows what all the other modeling was indicating and a La Nada by June and a mod/strong La Nina by December!

 

That's a significant area below -2.

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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That's a significant area below -2.

I read some comparisons being made to the reversal of the SST's in the central Pacific this year compared to 1998 have been much quicker/colder.  If this trend continues, maybe the Scripps model of having a strong La Nina is not that far fetched.  CFSv2 now looking like the Scripps.

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I bet the colder water hits the surface in the next 2 weeks.

 

 

Still have that warm pool off the West Coast.

 

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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How wet are those summers in years like 2007?

If I recall, they were pretty wet. CFSv2 and most climate models are showing an active pattern. I think August will end up being the driest. Should be pretty wet May-July I hope.

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:)  I'd take an '07 repeat - some nice and toasty spells iirc. 

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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CFSv2 correcting even stronger signal for a possible La Nina by the Fall...

 

 

That was a big shift into the negative from the last update.

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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Latest  NMME forecast suggests a full blown La Nina already by July...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nmme/2016040800/nmme_ssta_noice_cpac_3.png

 

 

Strong La Nina by the start of Winter...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nmme/2016040800/nmme_ssta_noice_cpac_7.png

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Latest  NMME forecast suggests a full blown La Nina already by July...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nmme/2016040800/nmme_ssta_noice_cpac_3.png

 

 

Strong La Nina by the start of Winter...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nmme/2016040800/nmme_ssta_noice_cpac_7.png

Could be real fun times ahead later this year if this pans out.

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Latest run of the CFSv2 strengthens the La Nina to possible strong category...

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/imagesInd3/nino34Mon.gif

 

 

Look how recent members want to take it down to -2/-3!  What a flip after the correction in the model.

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Latest run of the CFSv2 strengthens the La Nina to possible strong category...

 

 

 

Look how recent members want to take it down to -2/-3!  What a flip after the correction in the model.

 

It's crashing hard now.

 

Look at all that warmth in near Iceland and Greenland. La Niña plus Greenland block next winter I think.

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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SCRIPPS still advertising a strong La Nina through next Winter...

 

http://meteora.ucsd.edu/~pierce/elnino/fcst_gifs/fcst_made_2016-04_for_2016-09.jpg

 

http://meteora.ucsd.edu/~pierce/elnino/fcst_gifs/fcst_made_2016-04_for_2016-12.jpg

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I should have also posted this model output from SCRIPPS also..

 

AMJ 2016   0.48

MJJ 2016   -0.19

JJA 2016    -0.83

JAS 2016    -1.45

ASO 2016   -2.02

SON 2016   -2.54

OND 2016   -2.95

NDJ 2016/2017   -3.31

DJF 2016/2017   -3.45

 

Record La Nina on the table???  From a record El Nino to a possible record La Nina within a year's time...that is something extraordinary if it happens.

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Im very interested in this. If it were to pan out next winter could be a wild ride around this region.

Would it mean a cooler/rainy summer or what impacts would a La Nina have for us?

Analogs suggest a hotter/drier summer near the Lakes region, a little wetter in the Plains.

 

In our region, I remember the winter of 2000-2001 being a strong La Nina year.  My daughter was born in Dec. of 2000 and it was a very cold and snowy winter.  Could this coming winter be something similar, knowing each event has differences?

December 2000 was epic around here also.  Snowstorm after snowstorm and it stayed cold consistently.

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JAMSTEC's latest April seasonal update...is more or less the weakest out of the bunch...

 

Fall...

 

http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/d1/iod/2007/forecast/ssta.glob.SON2016.1apr2016.gif

 

 

Winter...

 

http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/d1/iod/2007/forecast/ssta.glob.DJF2017.1apr2016.gif

 

Nice mature looking cold pocket of waters south of the Aleutians and warm ring in the NE PAC.  Going to be another key component to next cold season.

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Analogs suggest a hotter/drier summer near the Lakes region, a little wetter in the Plains.

 

December 2000 was epic around here also.  Snowstorm after snowstorm and it stayed cold consistently.

 

Usually the warmth lasts into October before things flip hard.

 

This upcoming winter will be unique, likely strong la Niña, warm west coast waters, low solar. Throw in the warmer water around Greenland and you're setting up one extreme pattern for North America.

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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Loving the epic winter calls at a 7 month lead time

First of all, please tell us who's making epic winter calls? Lol

 

A historic flip in oceanic temps may be on the table from what some models are showing, but that's all I'm seeing.

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