Tom Posted March 28, 2016 Report Share Posted March 28, 2016 There has been talk of a much anticipated La Nina developing later on this year. As the current El Nino continues to collapse from its record setting 3.1C earlier this Winter, equatorial waters have cooled dramatically and are forecast to reach La Nada territory by early Summer.http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_update/sstaanim.gif http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_update/ssta_c.gif Based on trends, I'd imagine next month we see those colder sub surface waters make its way to the top. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ocean/anim/wkxzteq_anm.gif Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted March 29, 2016 Report Share Posted March 29, 2016 Cold water are getting pretty close to the top now. About 30 m it looks like.Was thinking about a la nina watch thread myself, glad you started it Tom. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted March 29, 2016 Report Share Posted March 29, 2016 ..has to be better than an "strong/record El Nino watch", one of my least favorite wx events. Ranks up there near the 2-month drought accompanied by a heat-wave.. Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted March 30, 2016 Author Report Share Posted March 30, 2016 The CFSv2 "glitch" fix in the Atlantic has been completed...what a difference in SST's in the central Pacific. It now shows what all the other modeling was indicating and a La Nada by June and a mod/strong La Nina by December! 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted March 31, 2016 Report Share Posted March 31, 2016 Impressive changes!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted March 31, 2016 Author Report Share Posted March 31, 2016 Now look at the CFSv2's latest ensemble run... It went from this.... http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/imagesInd2/nino34Mon.gif To this... http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/imagesInd3/nino34Mon.gif Notice the last 8 members (which are the blue lines) and how much of a stronger signal they are suggesting. Wacky! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted March 31, 2016 Report Share Posted March 31, 2016 The CFSv2 "glitch" fix in the Atlantic has been completed...what a difference in SST's in the central Pacific. It now shows what all the other modeling was indicating and a La Nada by June and a mod/strong La Nina by December! That's a significant area below -2. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted March 31, 2016 Author Report Share Posted March 31, 2016 That's a significant area below -2.I read some comparisons being made to the reversal of the SST's in the central Pacific this year compared to 1998 have been much quicker/colder. If this trend continues, maybe the Scripps model of having a strong La Nina is not that far fetched. CFSv2 now looking like the Scripps. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted April 2, 2016 Report Share Posted April 2, 2016 I bet the colder water hits the surface in the next 2 weeks. Still have that warm pool off the West Coast. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted April 5, 2016 Author Report Share Posted April 5, 2016 Cold waters ever so close to making its way to the surface... http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ocean/anim/wkxzteq_anm.gif Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder98 Posted April 5, 2016 Report Share Posted April 5, 2016 What does a developing La Nina impacts for the Midwest in Summer? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted April 5, 2016 Author Report Share Posted April 5, 2016 What does a developing La Nina impacts for the Midwest in Summer?Typically, they produce warmer summers and one of the better analogs is 2007. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder98 Posted April 5, 2016 Report Share Posted April 5, 2016 Typically, they produce warmer summers and one of the better analogs is 2007. How wet are those summers in years like 2007? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted April 5, 2016 Author Report Share Posted April 5, 2016 How wet are those summers in years like 2007?If I recall, they were pretty wet. CFSv2 and most climate models are showing an active pattern. I think August will end up being the driest. Should be pretty wet May-July I hope. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted April 5, 2016 Report Share Posted April 5, 2016 Nothing too noteworthy in my neighborhood from 2007. Little wetter than usual here too but not much stands out from that year. Add: almost dead average for temps here. Fine by me. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted April 5, 2016 Report Share Posted April 5, 2016 My 2007 summer was fairly wet... 19 inches June through August. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted April 5, 2016 Report Share Posted April 5, 2016 I'd take an '07 repeat - some nice and toasty spells iirc. 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted April 5, 2016 Author Report Share Posted April 5, 2016 CFSv2 correcting even stronger signal for a possible La Nina by the Fall... http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/imagesInd3/nino34Mon.gif Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted April 5, 2016 Report Share Posted April 5, 2016 CFSv2 correcting even stronger signal for a possible La Nina by the Fall... That was a big shift into the negative from the last update. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted April 6, 2016 Report Share Posted April 6, 2016 I hope these models handle the la nina better than el nino. remeber when the crash was going to happen in late november?? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted April 7, 2016 Report Share Posted April 7, 2016 I hope these models handle the la nina better than el nino. remeber when the crash was going to happen in late november??Yeah or when we were supposed to be in El nino 3 years ago, then 2 years ago. Lol. They don't really have a clue. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted April 7, 2016 Report Share Posted April 7, 2016 Yeah or when we were supposed to be in El nino 3 years ago, then 2 years ago. Lol. They don't really have a clue.Agree Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted April 8, 2016 Author Report Share Posted April 8, 2016 Latest NMME forecast suggests a full blown La Nina already by July... http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nmme/2016040800/nmme_ssta_noice_cpac_3.png Strong La Nina by the start of Winter... http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nmme/2016040800/nmme_ssta_noice_cpac_7.png 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted April 11, 2016 Report Share Posted April 11, 2016 Latest NMME forecast suggests a full blown La Nina already by July... http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nmme/2016040800/nmme_ssta_noice_cpac_3.png Strong La Nina by the start of Winter... http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nmme/2016040800/nmme_ssta_noice_cpac_7.pngCould be real fun times ahead later this year if this pans out. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted April 13, 2016 Author Report Share Posted April 13, 2016 Latest run of the CFSv2 strengthens the La Nina to possible strong category... http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/imagesInd3/nino34Mon.gif Look how recent members want to take it down to -2/-3! What a flip after the correction in the model. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted April 13, 2016 Author Report Share Posted April 13, 2016 Basin-wide moderate to borderline strong La Nina by early Fall... http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/imagesInd3/glbSSTMonInd6.gif 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted April 13, 2016 Report Share Posted April 13, 2016 These models couldnt get stuff right beyond a week from november through january. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted April 14, 2016 Report Share Posted April 14, 2016 Latest run of the CFSv2 strengthens the La Nina to possible strong category... Look how recent members want to take it down to -2/-3! What a flip after the correction in the model. It's crashing hard now. Look at all that warmth in near Iceland and Greenland. La Niña plus Greenland block next winter I think. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder98 Posted April 14, 2016 Report Share Posted April 14, 2016 Get ready for a hot summer! The Great Plains and the Great Lakes will likely have above average to well above average temperatures! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted April 14, 2016 Author Report Share Posted April 14, 2016 SCRIPPS still advertising a strong La Nina through next Winter... http://meteora.ucsd.edu/~pierce/elnino/fcst_gifs/fcst_made_2016-04_for_2016-09.jpg http://meteora.ucsd.edu/~pierce/elnino/fcst_gifs/fcst_made_2016-04_for_2016-12.jpg 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted April 14, 2016 Report Share Posted April 14, 2016 Region 1.2 is crashing and just went negative for the first time. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted April 14, 2016 Author Report Share Posted April 14, 2016 Region 1.2 is crashing and just went negative for the first time.Wow, pretty impressive upwelling of colder waters... http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/cdas-sflux_ssta7diff_global_1.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted April 14, 2016 Report Share Posted April 14, 2016 Im very interested in this. If it were to pan out next winter could be a wild ride around this region.Would it mean a cooler/rainy summer or what impacts would a La Nina have for us? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted April 14, 2016 Report Share Posted April 14, 2016 In our region, I remember the winter of 2000-2001 being a strong La Nina year. My daughter was born in Dec. of 2000 and it was a very cold and snowy winter. Could this coming winter be something similar, knowing each event has differences? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted April 14, 2016 Author Report Share Posted April 14, 2016 I should have also posted this model output from SCRIPPS also.. AMJ 2016 0.48MJJ 2016 -0.19JJA 2016 -0.83JAS 2016 -1.45ASO 2016 -2.02SON 2016 -2.54OND 2016 -2.95NDJ 2016/2017 -3.31DJF 2016/2017 -3.45 Record La Nina on the table??? From a record El Nino to a possible record La Nina within a year's time...that is something extraordinary if it happens. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted April 14, 2016 Author Report Share Posted April 14, 2016 Im very interested in this. If it were to pan out next winter could be a wild ride around this region.Would it mean a cooler/rainy summer or what impacts would a La Nina have for us?Analogs suggest a hotter/drier summer near the Lakes region, a little wetter in the Plains. In our region, I remember the winter of 2000-2001 being a strong La Nina year. My daughter was born in Dec. of 2000 and it was a very cold and snowy winter. Could this coming winter be something similar, knowing each event has differences?December 2000 was epic around here also. Snowstorm after snowstorm and it stayed cold consistently. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted April 15, 2016 Author Report Share Posted April 15, 2016 JAMSTEC's latest April seasonal update...is more or less the weakest out of the bunch... Fall... http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/d1/iod/2007/forecast/ssta.glob.SON2016.1apr2016.gif Winter... http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/d1/iod/2007/forecast/ssta.glob.DJF2017.1apr2016.gif Nice mature looking cold pocket of waters south of the Aleutians and warm ring in the NE PAC. Going to be another key component to next cold season. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted April 15, 2016 Report Share Posted April 15, 2016 Analogs suggest a hotter/drier summer near the Lakes region, a little wetter in the Plains. December 2000 was epic around here also. Snowstorm after snowstorm and it stayed cold consistently. Usually the warmth lasts into October before things flip hard. This upcoming winter will be unique, likely strong la Niña, warm west coast waters, low solar. Throw in the warmer water around Greenland and you're setting up one extreme pattern for North America. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted April 15, 2016 Report Share Posted April 15, 2016 Loving the epic winter calls at a 7 month lead time 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted April 15, 2016 Author Report Share Posted April 15, 2016 Loving the epic winter calls at a 7 month lead timeFirst of all, please tell us who's making epic winter calls? Lol A historic flip in oceanic temps may be on the table from what some models are showing, but that's all I'm seeing. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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