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2016-17 La Nina Watch/Discussion

Tom

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Tom
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I found this article rather interesting.  Take a look at the comparison of the El Nino in 1997/98 vs 2015/16 and you can see the various ENSO region trends.  Of note, pay attention to ENSO 1.2 and ENS

bud2380
bud2380

Tom, thanks for posting this, it is absolutely fascinating.  I have always been highly skeptical of global warming/climate change/insert liberal buzz word being a man made phenomenon.  The fact of the

Tom
Tom

The CFSv2 "glitch" fix in the Atlantic has been completed...what a difference in SST's in the central Pacific.  It now shows what all the other modeling was indicating and a La Nada by June and a mod/

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OKwx2k4 Mentor

OKwx2k4

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We're almost playing with a stacked deck for cold all winter if the N PAC sst profiles continue to evolve through October in the way that they have over the last few weeks. After some further reading and investigating, 1978 is my leading analog year. I'm afraid to say that too boldly at this time but it looks pretty legit. Simply put, the Blob is back.

 

Also, my post above from several days ago was supposed to be -.5 in case anyone noticed.

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Tom Grand Master

Tom

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We're almost playing with a stacked deck for cold all winter if the N PAC sst profiles continue to evolve through October in the way that they have over the last few weeks. After some further reading and investigating, 1978 is my leading analog year. I'm afraid to say that too boldly at this time but it looks pretty legit. Simply put, the Blob is back.

 

Also, my post above from several days ago was supposed to be -.5 in case anyone noticed.

Every long range model is suggesting the NE PAC ridge to build in and hold throughout the month of September.  The anomalies are on fire with +5C waters bubbling up in the NE PAC.  The Blob is back, and its showing some serious strength.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/ocean/cdas-sflux_ssta_global_1.png

 

 

Meanwhile, Nina-like conditions are holding together with a favorable SOI and trades, looks to me like the modiki Nina is not going away.  All ENSO regions are cooling off and expected to continue.  I wonder if we hit -1C for the 3.4/3 regions next month.

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Tom Grand Master

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The latest CPC weekly ENSO update...cooler waters continue to shift west...no major changes, it appears the continuation of a La Nina still on schedule.  The coolest of subsurface waters still remain in the central Pacific.  

 

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ocean/anim/wkxzteq_anm.gif

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_update/sstaanim.gif'

 

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_update/ssta_c.gif

 

 

The CFSv2 showing the central Pacific warming during the month of September.  I'm not sure what to think of that ATM.

 

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/cfs-mon/2016082818/cfs-mon_01_ssta_cpac_1.png

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Tom Grand Master

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Not much change in the ENSO conditions.  Holding pretty steady.

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ocean/anim/wkxzteq_anm.gif'

 

 

 

Central Pacific waters are the coolest and focusing near 150W...

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_update/sstaanim.gif

 

 

 

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_update/ssta_c.gif''

 

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_update/ssta-week.gif

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Tom Grand Master

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SST Anomalies in ENSO regions 3.4/3/4 have been oscillating back and forth in a clear range.  Wonder if it breaks lower as we head into Autumn.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/ocean/nino34.png

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/ocean/nino3.png

 

 

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/ocean/nino4.png

 

 

Edit: The central pacific La Nina is clearly depicted below.  Interestingly, it's placed directly south of the Blob in the N PAC. 

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/ocean/cdas-sflux_ssta_global_1.png

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jaster220 Grand Master

jaster220

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Latest NMME forecast...signing the same tune...

 

CryCGBhXEAEZH3R.jpg

 

Wow Tom. If the cold shows up as indicated, that should be GOLD for the S. Lakes & OHV track. This feels like "that 70's show" in the winter wx dept.  ;)

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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jaster220 Grand Master

jaster220

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Man o man if we start pouring cold air masses over these warm GL's somebody's going to get buried! 

 

https://www.theweathernetwork.com/us/news/articles/us-weather/soaring-great-lakes-temperatures-could-impact-your-forecast/71163

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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jaster220 Grand Master

jaster220

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Here is the latest SCRIPPS ENSO run for Sept...

 

Fall...

 

http://meteora.ucsd.edu/~pierce/elnino/fcst_gifs/fcst_made_2016-09_for_2016-09.jpg

 

Winter....

 

http://meteora.ucsd.edu/~pierce/elnino/fcst_gifs/fcst_made_2016-09_for_2016-12.jpg

 

It looks like it is back to a "Modiki Nina" then?

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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jaster220 Grand Master

jaster220

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It's always had a La Niña, but it's not as strong as a few months ago. I find the SCRIPPS model runs a bit cold compared to all the other models.

 

So all this talk of La Nada was never in play? 

 

Couple questions:

1) exactly which zone (3.4, etc) determines the actual "enso state"? Because that graph a few posts back shows Neut conditions for 3.4 during Dec to Mar

2) Which region are those colder La Nina anamolies in? I cant tell from the image(s)

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Tom Grand Master

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So all this talk of La Nada was never in play? 

 

Couple questions:

1) exactly which zone (3.4, etc) determines the actual "enso state"? Because that graph a few posts back shows Neut conditions for 3.4 during Dec to Mar

2) Which region are those colder La Nina anamolies in? I cant tell from the image(s)

 

If the SOI continues to stay sky high, the La Nina could very well continue through the Winter months.  I'm not confident enough to say that will happen.

 

ENSO 3.4 region SST anomalies are used to determine the ENSO state.  Here is a map of the various ENSO regions...

 

nino-regions.gif

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jaster220 Grand Master

jaster220

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If the SOI continues to stay sky high, the La Nina could very well continue through the Winter months.  I'm not confident enough to say that will happen.

 

ENSO 3.4 region SST anomalies are used to determine the ENSO state.  Here is a map of the various ENSO regions...

 

nino-regions.gif

 

Those Scripps colderst waters then are forecasted in the 3.4 region?

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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OKwx2k4 Mentor

OKwx2k4

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Scripps has been super cold with the Niña development since the very beginning. I was kinda in agreement in late spring when we saw the subsurface at -5 and -6°c but now in another string of unusual events this year, I'm pretty much in agreement with the cool neutral group. The cool pool has all but disappeared at the subsurface and the lack of a sustainable atmospheric connection beyond the recent SOI pop suggests maybe -.2 to -.4°c as a maximum sustainable average. There's just really no way it can survive in my opinion.

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Tom Grand Master

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The CPC has cancelled the La Nina Watch...they are expecting ENSO neutral conditions after all.

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml

 

http://gizmodo.com/la-nina-might-not-be-coming-after-all-1786512939?utm_content=buffer33e87&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter.com&utm_campaign=buffer

 

Subsurface temps are no where near as cold as they were in the Spring...

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ocean/anim/wkxzteq_anm.gif

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jaster220 Grand Master

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The CPC has cancelled the La Nina Watch...they are expecting ENSO neutral conditions after all.

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml

 

http://gizmodo.com/la-nina-might-not-be-coming-after-all-1786512939?utm_content=buffer33e87&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter.com&utm_campaign=buffer

 

Subsurface temps are no where near as cold as they were in the Spring...

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ocean/anim/wkxzteq_anm.gif

 

:lol: The S PAC "punt fakes" the Fed's. Love it!

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Tom Grand Master

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The JAMSTEC's Sept run also in-line with the rest of the global models and has neutral ENSO conditions persisting through the Autumn/Winter months...

 

http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/d1/iod/2007/forecast/ssta.nino3.4.fcst.2-yr.1sep2016.gif

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jaster220 Grand Master

jaster220

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The POAMA ENSO data suggesting a weak La Nina throughout Winter...

 

CsyyP8vXgAE2Vpj.jpg

 

As far as typical synoptic patterns go, there's probably not a lot of differences resulting from an ENSO state of weak Nina up to a weak Nino (and all the neutral in between), is there? 

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Tom Grand Master

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As far as typical synoptic patterns go, there's probably not a lot of differences resulting from an ENSO state of weak Nina up to a weak Nino (and all the neutral in between), is there? 

I've been reading that there are differences if you are closer to one "weak" ENSO state to the other.  If we do end up -0.4C, or close to a weak La Nina state, I expect more typical Nina conditions to transpire.

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jaster220 Grand Master

jaster220

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I've been reading that there are differences if you are closer to one "weak" ENSO state to the other.  If we do end up -0.4C, or close to a weak La Nina state, I expect more typical Nina conditions to transpire.

 

I guess I'm not clear on the differences tbh. Do you (we) have maps to illustrate the 2 different outcomes? I think Niko posted La Nada somewhere on here?

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Tom Grand Master

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I guess I'm not clear on the differences tbh. Do you (we) have maps to illustrate the 2 different outcomes? I think Niko posted La Nada somewhere on here?

No, I don't have any maps to showcase.  However, here is a typical La Nina wx pattern over N.A....one thing that draws my attn is the blocking HP in the NE PAC.  We are seeing above normal SST's in this area which would suggest an even more pronounced ridge to develop, influencing the wx pattern even farther.

 

 

Edit: I just located this map for a weak Nino...

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Niko Veteran

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No, I don't have any maps to showcase.  However, here is a typical La Nina wx pattern over N.A....one thing that draws my attn is the blocking HP in the NE PAC.  We are seeing above normal SST's in this area which would suggest an even more pronounced ridge to develop, influencing the wx pattern even farther.

 

 

Edit: I just located this map for a weak Nino...

This would technically leave us cold and bone dry, with more like fast moving clippers skirting the area and big storms to be pounding the EC with lots of snows, even as far south into the Carolina's.

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN Insane!

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024: Trace

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Tom Grand Master

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Remarkably, all ENSO regions anomalies have risen to 0C or above.  Nearly a .5C jump in the 3.4/4/3 Regions...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/ocean/nino34.png

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/ocean/nino3.png

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/ocean/nino4.png

 

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/ocean/cdas-sflux_ssta7diff_global_1.png

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jaster220 Grand Master

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"Remarkably, all ENSO regions anomalies have risen to 0C or above.  Nearly a .5C jump in the 3.4/4/3 Regions..."

 

:huh:  Ruh Roh Skippy, better re-post your weak El Nino map and dust off those analogs just in case, eh? Other than the infamous '77-78 season, what others are you (or anyone) aware of?

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Tom Grand Master

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:huh:  Ruh Roh Skippy, better re-post your weak El Nino map and dust off those analogs just in case, eh? Other than the infamous '77-78 season, what others are you (or anyone) aware of?

Nah, we are not going to see a weak El Nino...Trade Winds are expected to promote Nina-like conditions as we head into October...

 

Cs65RBhUMAEnw5L.jpg

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Tom Grand Master

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There have been some wild swings in surface temps in all the ENSO regions.  ENSO 4 region has dropped off significantly of late...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/ocean/nino4.png

 

 ENSO 3.4...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/ocean/nino34.png

 

ENSO 3...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/ocean/nino3.png

 

 

It's not hard to find the central pacific cold pool on the map below...I don't recall seeing the central Pacific swing back and forth so much.  Nearly 1C temp swings.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/ocean/cdas-sflux_ssta_global_1.png

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      April 2024 Weather in the PNW

      The fact that those are the two analogs you remember most readily for that sort of thing says more about the sad state of our climate than it does anything. 2019 actually had a top tier warm and dry May and an averagish June followed by a reasonable if not mild summer. 2022 had a coolish and wettish May followed by an averagish June, after which we descended directly into summer hellfire and didn’t look back until November. They’re getting pretty ancient now, but a couple better examples of a classic cool and wet May/June would be 2010 and 2012.
      Cascadia_Wx in West of the Rockies
    4. 1712

      April 2024 Weather in the PNW

      I really hope May and June are a soaker. That usually keeps things lush into the early Summer. Already starting to see some brown in the backyard. Running out of time to save it before our wet season is used up. Nothing is worse than entering ASO browntown three months ahead of schedule and staying that way. The majority of 2014-18 were tinder dry and sickly colored. Hoping we go the route of 2019, or especially 2022.
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      • Confused
      Meatyorologist in West of the Rockies
    5. 1712

      April 2024 Weather in the PNW

      It was absolutely stellar. Taking out the trash at work was a treat.
      • 2
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      • Excited
      Meatyorologist in West of the Rockies
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