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April 2016 Observation and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest


Tyler Mode

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More on the summer analogs. Here's a basic visual of the QBO, easy to see which years are better matches.

 

Not many good (recent) ENSO analogs here, except 1983 and 1988, and possibly 1995.

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More on the summer analogs. Here's a basic visual of the QBO, easy to see which years are better matches.

 

Not many good (recent) ENSO analogs here, except 1983 and 1988.

The heat peaking early here (April and May) would make 1983 a decent fit.

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The heat peaking early here (April and May) would make 1983 a decent fit.

Good luck with 1983 without the volcanic influence of that year.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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More on the summer analogs. Here's a basic visual of the QBO, easy to see which years are better matches.

 

Not many good (recent) ENSO analogs here, except 1983 and 1988, and possibly 1995.

 

 

Too small of a population sample to make any solid conclusions.

 

I am confident in another warm summer locally if the PDO stays positive until late summer and there is warm water off our coast which is the case now.  

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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The heat peaking early here (April and May) would make 1983 a decent fit.

Yeah, that's my idea as of now. Early start, early finish looking increasingly likely with a midsummer flip to a cooler background state, as forcing regression is now occurring to a demonstrable extent in the tropics. As of now, ENSO/QBO cycling at the expected rate.

 

Currently, we still have the antecedent niño forcing/inertia running the low frequency (background) circulations, so I like the idea of overall warmth dominating in the April - June trimonthly. However, we'll lose the underlying niño forcing component sometime in June or July, at which point there will be a large scale transition in the essential global circulations.

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Yeah, that's my idea as of now. Early start, early finish looking increasingly likely with a midsummer flip to a cooler background state, as forcing regression is now occurring to a demonstrable extent in the tropics. As of now, ENSO/QBO cycling at the expected rate.

 

Currently, we still have the antecedent niño forcing/inertia running the low frequency (background) circulations, so I like the idea of overall warmth dominating in the April - June trimonthly. However, we'll lose the underlying niño forcing component sometime in June or July, at which point there will be a large scale transition in the essential global circulations.

 

 

I don't see early finishes to summer locally in any of your analogs.

 

Summer definitely peaked later in years like 1988 and 1995.   And of course 1998.

 

May of 1988 was wet and cool here... but July through the middle of September was incredible.   Dry and warm.

 

May of 1995 was warm... but September was also spectacular that year with warmth and sunshine almost the entire month.    That was a late end to summer.

 

September of 1998 was also very warm.  

 

This supposed heat peak early in 1983 was just a 2-day warm spell.  Mid-July into September was the most consistently warm and dry part of that summer.   And that year is probably irrelevant anyways with volcanic influence.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Too small of a population sample to make any solid conclusions.

 

I am confident in another warm summer locally if the PDO stays positive until late summer and there is warm water off our coast which is the case now.

 

Your summer temperatures are governed by the same circulatory/streamflow dynamics that govern the nature of those SSTAs. Those "warm waters" are in the 40s/50s through the entirety of spring/summer.

 

I'm not as worried about SO^2 forcing in 1983 given the nature of the ENSO/BDC beforehand. Having the super-niño strengthen/add H^2O into the BDC-B somewhat nullified (statistically) the effects of the SO^2-induced O^3->O^2 photodissociation process. If anything, I'd argue the El Chichón eruption prevented a stronger Niña/-PDO thereafter.

 

As for the "sample size", it's plenty if you include other niño-to-Niña transitions. The fact that the best QBO matches all feature similar pattern progressions, when accounting for other factors, is highly suggestive of either direct or indirect physical linkage/causation in relation to NPAC circulation.

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Those "warm waters" are in the 40s/50s through the entirety of spring/summer. Your summer temperatures are governed by the same circulatory/streamflow dynamics that govern the nature of those SSTAs.

 

I'm not as worried about SO^2 forcing in 1983 given the nature of the ENSO/BDC beforehand. Having the super-niño strengthen/add H^2O into the BDC-B somewhat nullified (statistically) the effects of the SO^2-induced O^3->O^2 photodissociation process. If anything, I'd argue the El Chichón eruption prevented a stronger Niña/-PDO thereafter.

 

As for the "sample size", it's plenty if you include other niño-to-Niña transitions.

Yeah... like all those Nino to Nina years in the low solar period of the late 1800s and early 1900s.

 

I am very confident that you are setting up Jesse and Jim for major disappointment later in the summer. You are not really forecasting locally but on a much larger scale.

 

Maybe next summer will be cool. But the summer of 2016 has the earmarkings of another warm summer here. Although there will likely be an extended cool and wet period sometime in May or June.

 

All this talk and dismissing my forecast but like the last 3 years... I will probably end up correct again. The signs are all there. I am guessing my forecast will be different one year from now.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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A volcanic eruption in Mexico in March 1982 didn't create the 500mb weather patterns of July 1983 ;)

A volcanic eruption in the Phillipines in June of 1991 was still effecting the entire globe in 1993.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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And that didn't drive the 500mb weather patterns either. The summer of 1993 would have been cool in the NW regardless of whether or not a major volcano had erupted.

Disagree. But whatever. Read up on it.

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I don't see early finishes to summer locally in any of your analogs.

 

Summer definitely peaked later in years like 1988 and 1995.  

The data I'm looking at suggests otherwise. Temperature anomalies were colder regionwide in July/August than they were in June during the aforementioned years.

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The data I'm looking at suggests otherwise. Temperature anomalies were colder regionwide in July/August than they were in June during the aforementioned years.

And that is probably the issue. That's fine... you are looking at the big picture and you do great at that.

 

I am looking at daily data. It was incredible here later in the summer in years like 1988 and 1995. Definitely the peak of summer without question. You are speaking a different language. That is OK. I am talking about our actual local weather here.

 

I also think the second half of summer will be quite humid by our standards.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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You disagree that a volcanic eruption that happened two years earlier and at most contributed ~1 degree celsius cooling to the Earth would have changed this pattern from a cool one to a warm one?

 

attachicon.gif6IeddU75jW.png

It would have been warmer and drier. Pointless discussion. Wait until 10/1 and once again you will likely say that I got lucky for the 4th year in a row. :)

 

All the signs are there. No way to prove anything until it's over. Said the same thing the last 3 years. This year is looking warm again.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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A volcanic eruption in Mexico in March 1982 didn't create the 500mb weather patterns of July 1983   ;)

Obviously, El Chichón didn't "create" any weather patterns. However, these tropical volcanoes affect global weather/climate via injection of SO^2 into the stratosphere, where it photochemically interacts with O^3 and other tri-atomic gases for years thereafter, significantly changing the chemistry of this crucial layer of the atmosphere, altering thermal winds, gradients, and large scale circulatory processes. So, yes, volcanic forcing actually takes a while to affect the nature of Earth's climate, and these effects can last for years, perhaps even decades.

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It would have been warmer and drier. Pointless discussion. Wait until 10/1 and once again you will likely say that I got lucky for the 4th year in a row. :)

 

All the signs are there. No way to prove anything until it's over. Said the same thing the last 3 years.

 

I don't much care one way or the other what the weather does this summer. Either way it will be sunnier and warmer than this past winter. Spring too.

 

What I am questioning is your simplistic logic and understanding of how climatology works. Erupting volcanoes be damned, some upper level patterns make us chilly and some don't. 

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Yeah... like all those Nino to Nina years in the low solar period of the late 1800s and early 1900s.

I am very confident that you are setting up Jesse and Jim for major disappointment later in the summer. You are not really forecasting locally but on a much larger scale.

Maybe next summer will be cool. But the summer of 2016 has the earmarkings of another warm summer here. Although there will likely be an extended cool and wet period sometime in May or June.

All this talk and dismissing my forecast but like the last 3 years... I will probably end up correct again. The signs are all there. I am guessing my forecast will be different one year from now.

No offense, but I'm getting the vibe that your disdain for cold/rainy weather is clouding your judgment here. The fact that you're looking back over 100 years for analogs is kind of revealing. :)

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I don't much care one way or the other what the weather does this summer. Either way it will be sunnier and warmer than this past winter. Spring too.

 

What I am questioning is your simplistic logic and understanding of how climatology works. Erupting volcanoes be damned, some upper level patterns make us chilly and some don't. 

 

Of course it can be cool without volcanic activity.   

 

And I also think summers like 1884, 1983, 1993, and going farther back to 1816 were much cooler than they would have been without volcanic influence.

 

Most recently, the 1991 explosion of Mount Pinatubo, a stratovolcano in the Philippines, cooled global temperatures for about 2–3 years.[2]

In 1883, the explosion of Krakatoa (Krakatau) created volcanic winter-like conditions. The four years following the explosion were unusually cold, and the winter of 1887-1888 included powerful blizzards.[3] Record snowfalls were recorded worldwide.

The 1815 eruption of Mount Tambora, a stratovolcano in Indonesia, occasioned mid-summer frosts in New York State and June snowfalls in New England and Newfoundland and Labrador in what came to be known as the "Year Without a Summer" of 1816.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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No offense, but I'm getting the vibe that your disdain for cold/rainy weather is clouding your judgment here. The fact that you're looking back over 100 years for analogs is kind of revealing. :)

 

1988, 1995, and 1998 are great analogs for this summer.     That is only going back 28 years.   :)

 

All had the peak of summer in the July-September time frame locally.   No question.

 

I mention the earlier years for more data on Nino to Nina transitions... particularly in a low solar period.   Most of those were warm summers as well.    You just don't have good data on them so you can't use them as well.    They did exist and most featured really warm summers here in a Nino to Nina transition.    Its hard to find any that peaked in June and then turned cool and wet here.   Not even 1983.   

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Obviously, El Chichón didn't "create" any weather patterns. However, these tropical volcanoes affect global weather/climate via injection of SO^2 into the stratosphere, where it photochemically interacts with O^3 and other tri-atomic gases for years thereafter, significantly changing the chemistry of this crucial layer of the atmosphere, altering thermal winds, gradients, and large scale circulatory processes. So, yes, volcanic forcing actually takes a while to affect the nature of Earth's climate, and these effects can last for years, perhaps even decades.

 

Yes, that eruption along with the post-Nino collapse into a moderate Nina helped contribute to a rather cold globe in the mid 1983 to mid 1985 period. February 1985 was actually the last month that the globe was cold relative to the 1880-present average.

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Of course it can be cool without volcanic activity.   

 

And I also think summers like 1884, 1983, 1993, and going farther back to 1816 were much cooler than they would have been without volcanic influence.

 

Most recently, the 1991 explosion of Mount Pinatubo, a stratovolcano in the Philippines, cooled global temperatures for about 2–3 years.[2]

In 1883, the explosion of Krakatoa (Krakatau) created volcanic winter-like conditions. The four years following the explosion were unusually cold, and the winter of 1887-1888 included powerful blizzards.[3] Record snowfalls were recorded worldwide.

The 1815 eruption of Mount Tambora, a stratovolcano in Indonesia, occasioned mid-summer frosts in New York State and June snowfalls in New England and Newfoundland and Labrador in what came to be known as the "Year Without a Summer" of 1816.

 

Thanks, I know about volcanic cooling and it's extremely far from being a direct influence of what our weather is going to do. It's almost like the climate system is rather complex. 

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1988, 1995, and 1998 are great analogs for this summer. That is only going back 28 years. :)

 

All had the peak of summer in the July-September time frame locally. No question.

 

I mention the earlier years for more data on Nino to Nina transitions... particularly in a low solar period.

Actually, 1998 isn't a very good analog. We already had a maturing -QBO by A/M/J. That lead to an equatorward anticyclone over the NPAC, despite raising the equatorial tropopause and accelerating the regression into the Niña, in a backwards sense, after the "mega-slosh" of 1997-98.

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Yes, that eruption along with the post-Nino collapse into a moderate Nina helped contribute to a rather cold globe in the mid 1983 to mid 1985 period. February 1985 was actually the last month that the globe was cold relative to the 1880-present average.

 

 

And that is one reason the summer of 1983 is probably not a good analog for this year.   But even that year was decent from mid-July to mid-September.   A worst... this would be a warmer version of that year.

 

Sounds like we need a volcano to erupt to get some good winters here.   It will happen eventually.  Probably sooner than later.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Yes, that eruption along with the post-Nino collapse into a moderate Nina helped contribute to a rather cold globe in the mid 1983 to mid 1985 period. February 1985 was actually the last month that the globe was cold relative to the 1880-present average.

Yeah, once that SO^2 gets into the stratosphere it takes awhile to remove it.

 

The most recent research has found that the volcanic effect on global circulation lasts longer than the statistical effect on global temperatures, through the aforementioned conduits.

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Tim is just cherry picking years.   Heard it before.    Certainly heard it in 2013, 2014, and 2015.   But the years I used back then were a good guide.

 

I am quite confident in a warm summer forecast for 2016 as well.    And summer will likely peak in terms of warmth and dryness in the July-September period.   I think September will be warm.  

 

When evidence points otherwise then my forecast will not be for a warm summer.

 

For the record... I would be very happy with summers like 1988 and 1995.  I should "cherry pick" those years but Phil already did it for me.   :)  Unless there is a major volcanic eruption in the next few weeks... 1983 is probably not as useful.    But certain people will cherry pick that year for their own purposes.   

 

Check back in early October.   By that point no one will care to rehash the warm summer of 2016 and will be looking forward to winter.   1983 will be forgotten.    ;)

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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And that is one reason the summer of 1983 is probably not a good analog for this year.   But even that year was decent from mid-July to mid-September.   A worst... this would be a warmer version of that year.

 

Sounds like we need a volcano to erupt to get some good winters here.   It will happen eventually.  Probably sooner than later.

 

No, we just need weather patterns that aren't historically awful for cold here. Record warm ENSO, record warm global SSTs, and perpetual  +PNA/+PDO isn't likely to do the trick, as evidenced by the past couple years.

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No, we just need weather patterns that aren't historically awful for cold here. Record warm ENSO, record warm global SSTs, and perpetual  +PNA/+PDO isn't likely to do the trick, as evidenced by the past couple years.

 

 

That will change this coming fall.   A major volcano would help it along though.  

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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12Z ECMWF is very nice.

 

Warm frontal rain is out of here by Tuesday morning... previous runs had it lingering through Wednesday.   Then very warm for awhile... fading back to just regular warm.    

 

Very little rain other than Sunday night and Monday.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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I think Tim is confusing discussion of anomalies with discussion of observed weather. It is possible for there to be an early "peak" of the summer anomaly wise, even if July/August run warmer than April/May/June. You would be pretty hard pressed to see a July or August cooler than just about any given June.

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12Z ECMWF is very nice.

 

Warm frontal rain is out of here by Tuesday morning... previous runs had it lingering through Wednesday. Then very warm for awhile... fading back to just regular warm.

 

Very little rain other than Sunday night and Monday.

Nice to see us starting to burn through our yearly allotment of warm and sunny a little early.

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Nice to see us starting to burn through our yearly allotment of warm and sunny a little early.

 

:lol:

 

Definitely worked in 2015!

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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First marine push of the year last night. 

 

http://s15.postimg.org/4fpuqzovf/VIS1_SEA.gif

 

66 and sunny here... 51 with fog/mist in Hoquiam.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Can someone do me up a simulated post-Yellowstone Caldera eruption forecast for Independence Day?

 

Still nice... that would take awhile to get here.   

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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