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April 2016 Observation and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest


Tyler Mode

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Pretty odd to see a warm spell ended by a marine pus this time of year.  Looks to happen again after the near heatwave later next week.  Some freakish warmth isn't unheard of in the spring during the collapse of a mega Nino.  In 1983 the foothills near Seattle topped 100 in late May.  I just happened to be driving through North Bend on that day and the air felt like a blast furnace.  According to the Landsburg records it hit 102 on that day.  After that the mid 1980s went on to be an exceptionally cold period for the NW and decently cold globally.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Pretty odd to see a warm spell ended by a marine pus this time of year.  Looks to happen again after the near heatwave later next week.  Some freakish warmth isn't unheard of in the spring during the collapse of a mega Nino.  In 1983 the foothills near Seattle topped 100 in late May.  I just happened to be driving through North Bend on that day and the air felt like a blast furnace.  According to the Landsburg records it hit 102 on that day.  After that the mid 1980s went on to be an exceptionally cold period for the NW and decently cold globally.

 

 

Thanks to volcanic influence back then.

 

Not going to be like 1983 this year.  

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Some freakish warmth isn't unheard of in the spring during the collapse of a mega Nino

 

I think it's the fact that this is still "early Spring" that makes this a potential record breaking wave. Sure, in my years I've seen many mid-May or late May waves with temps in the 90's even approaching 100. But in my years I've never seen a 80+ degrees in the first week of April, especially not in Klamath Falls over 4000 feet high. This is still graupel/snow season for another couple weeks here. I should be having highs in the low 50's and upper 40's well until late month. ;)

 

Even my neighbors who've lived in K-Falls for 30-40 years could have a surprise waiting for them on 04/07. They'll tell me "isn't it too early for this kind of weather??"

Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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Probably will end up warmer than I was thinking. It'll be tough to make up for the first 10 days.

 

Nice to be on the good side of wrong, I suppose.

 

If the other 3 weeks of April turn out to be significantly cooler than normal, it could all average out to normal. Too early to say anything.

Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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If the other 3 weeks of April turn out to be significantly cooler than normal, it could all average out to normal. Too early to say anything.

 

I don't see a significantly cool period being very likely, at least one that would last for a significant period of time.  

My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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Randy and I appreciate the same kind of weather. :)

Indeed! And my lawn is much too wet to mow right now with the heavy drizzle we had earlier. No drizzle now, and starting to brighten up as well so there is hope to salvage a sunny afternoon!

Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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Indeed! And my lawn is much too wet to mow right now with the heavy drizzle we had earlier. No drizzle now, and starting to brighten up as well so there is hope to salvage a sunny afternoon!

 

 

Sort of an odd place for a large patch of low clouds to be stuck.  Normally it gets stuck out here like that.   Weak onshore flow this morning and I believe southerly flow starting up now which pushed it into a pile right over you.  

 

http://s29.postimg.org/w5n19cbhz/VIS1_SEA_1.gif

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Thanks to volcanic influence back then.

 

Not going to be like 1983 this year.

It's going to be like 1983 this year.

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It's going to be like 1983 this year.

 

Not here in our backyards. It will be warmer and drier than that year. Guarantee it.

 

And 1983, 1988, and 1995 were all very different summers here. It can't be exactly like all 3 of them. :)

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Not here in our backyards. It will be warmer and drier than that year. Guarantee it.

 

And 1983, 1988, and 1995 were all very different summers here. It can't be exactly like all 3 of them. :)

This summer won't emulate any analog to an exact degree. Analogs should only be used as guides, in my opinion. It's also important to look at the physics of the present situation.

 

What I'm seeing is an early start/early finish to "summer", in terms of regional temperatures *relative to average*. I believe April/May/June will finish well above average, temperate wise, on aggregate. Meanwhile, I believe July/August/September will finish below average, temperature wise, on aggregate.

 

Talking specifically, I believe, as the forcings stand now, we'll lose the antecedent niño component (W-CPAC forcing/+AAMI) sometime in June or July, with IO/MT forcing (antecedent niña) taking over from there. So, I anticipate a midsummer flip/response in the underlying essential circulations, which will manifest in form a -PNA/+EPO, in this particular case.

 

I guess mother nature will decide who's right, eventually. She can be quite the fickle b*tch. :)

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This summer won't emulate any analog to an exact degree. Analogs should only be used as guides, in my opinion. It's also important to look at the physics of the present situation.

 

What I'm seeing is an early start/early finish to "summer", in terms of regional temperatures *relative to average*. I believe April/May/June will finish well above average, temperate wise, on aggregate. Meanwhile, I believe July/August/September will finish below average, temperature wise, on aggregate.

 

Talking specifically, I believe, as the forcings stand now, we'll lose the antecedent niño component (W-CPAC forcing/+AAMI) sometime in June or July, with IO/MT forcing (antecedent niña) taking over from there. So, I anticipate a midsummer flip/response in the underlying essential circulations, which will manifest in form a -PNA/+EPO, in this particular case.

 

I guess mother nature will decide who's right, eventually. She can be quite the fickle b*tch. :)

You gave us 3 analog years. 2 of them clearly had a later peak to summer in the July - September period. Essentially all 3 did because June of 1983 was really wet and cool here. Then it warmed up and dried out in July and August but was still below normal.

 

You might be right on the large scale... but you are going to be wrong locally on the ground here.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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You gave us 3 analog years. 2 of them clearly had a later peak to summer in the July - September period. Essentially all 3 did because June of 1983 was really wet and cool here. Then it warmed up and dried out in July and August but was still below normal.

Are there any recent analogs you're looking at? I just have a hard time taking those early 20th century ones too seriously. It's kind of like if Jim used 1889-90 as a winter analog for this year, which I know you'd immediately shoot down.

 

And for the record (not that anybody really cares), my guess is this summer ends up a bit warmer than the 1981-2010 averages, but nothing crazy. 

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Are there any recent analogs you're looking at? I just have a hard time taking those early 20th century ones too seriously. It's kind of like if Jim used 1889-90 as a winter analog for this year, which I know you'd immediately shoot down.

 

And for the record (not that anybody really cares), my guess is this summer ends up a bit warmer than the 1981-2010 averages, but nothing crazy.

1988 and 1995 could work out. Could end up like 1998 locally as well.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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You gave us 3 analog years. 2 of them clearly had a later peak to summer in the July - September period. Essentially all 3 did because June of 1983 was really wet and cool here. Then it warmed up and dried out in July and August but was still below normal.

They did not have a late peak. Do I need to post the temperature anomalies for each year again? June generally featured higher 500mb height, and warmer temperatures relative to average than the July/August aggregates.

 

You might be right on the large scale... but you are going to be wrong locally on the ground here.

Well, if the patterns progress as I anticipate they well, I might be right locally, also!

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Just in time for the East Coast to see heights that would be brutal in January, but perfectly timed for early April.

Haha, it's relatively rare for temperatures below the mid 80s in July. We're almost three times as likely to observe a high in the mid 90s.

 

If you thought yesterday felt "soupy", you're in big trouble. :)

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They did not have a late peak. Do I need to post the temperature anomalies for each year again? June generally featured higher 500mb height, and warmer temperatures relative to average than the July/August aggregates.

 

 

Well, if the patterns progress as I anticipate they well, I might be right locally, also!

 

 

You maps are meaningless locally.

 

Take 1988 for example:  

 

Rained on 20+ days in May... many days in the 50s and 60s and just a couple warm days.     A crappy May for sure.

 

The first week of June it rained every day and was cold.   Then a warmer period and then cool and damp from 6/22 through 7/5,    Not a great month.   

 

Then after July 5th... it was sunny and warm for the rest of July and August.   Many days in the 80s and low 90s with hardly any rain at all.   Very hot in early September.   Hottest weather of the year.   A little rain in September but still almost 80 degrees in early October.

 

 

Tell me how 1988 was a early peak to summer here locally??    I don't care what your maps show.   That is actually what happened here.   Summer did not even really start here until early July  (sort of normal).   Definitely not an early peak.  

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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In 1988... May and June were a little colder and wetter than normal at SEA.   July and August were a little warmer and drier than normal.     

 

In 1995... July and September were much warmer than normal at SEA.    That was a pretty warm summer overall from May - September.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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You maps are meaningless locally.

 

Take 1988 for example:

 

Rained on 20+ days in May... many days in the 50s and 60s and just a couple warm days. A crappy May for sure.

 

The first week of June it rained every day and was cold. Then a warmer period and then cool and damp from 6/22 through 7/5, Not a great month.

 

Then after July 5th... it was sunny and warm for the rest of July and August. Many days in the 80s and low 90s with hardly any rain at all. Very hot in early September. Hottest weather of the year. A little rain in September but still almost 80 degrees in early October.

 

 

Tell me how 1988 was a early peak to summer here locally?? I don't care what your maps show. That is actually what happened here. Summer did not even really start here until early July (sort of normal). Definitely not an early peak.

The ESRL data averages the surface temperatures, so it doesn't account for highs and lows unless you isolate it that way which I did not do. I also care about 850mb temperatures more, so that's the level where my analysis is based.

 

Again, I'm not just relying on analogs, but also am observing the current progressions. I think, based on the aforementioned, an early start/early peak is the most probable outcome at this point. We'll see what happens, but I'm done arguing with you about this.

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The ESRL data averages the surface temperatures, so it doesn't account for highs and lows unless you isolate it that way which I did not do. I also care about 850mb temperatures more, so that's the level where my analysis is based.

 

Again, I'm not just relying on analogs, but also am observing the current progressions. I think, based on the aforementioned, an early start/early peak is the most probable outcome at this point. We'll see what happens, but I'm done arguing with you about this.

Not arguing. Just 100% fact that 1988 and 1995 peaked in every way from July-September here. Regardless of the 850mb temp.

 

Used the example of 1988 to illustrate... really crappy until July and then became beautiful and warm. You are speaking a different language and at a different level than our tangible weather.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Not arguing. Just 100% fact that 1988 and 1995 peaked in every way from July-September here. Regardless of the 850mb temp.

 

Used the example of 1988 to illustrate... really crappy until July and then became beautiful and warm. You are speaking a different language and at a different level than our tangible weather.

The data on NCDC/ESRL says otherwise.

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The data on NCDC/ESRL says otherwise.

 

Perfect.

 

So what actually happens on the ground here does not matter?    :lol:

 

50s and 60s and raining for much of May and June... sunny and in the 80s to low 90s from July into September.    And your map says the summer of 1988 peaked in May and June?  

 

Great... summer will "peak" in June when its 65 and raining here and then be over by July when its 85 and sunny for 2 months straight!   I will take it.   Because that is basically what happened in 1988 and 1995.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Perfect.

 

So what actually happens on the ground here does not matter? :lol:

 

50s and 60s and raining for much of May and June... sunny and in the 80s to low 90s from July into September. And your map says the summer of 1988 peaked in May and June?

 

Great... summer will "peak" in June when its 65 and raining here and then be over by July when its 85 and sunny for 2 months straight! I will take it. Because that is basically what happened in 1988 and 1995.

Yes, 850mb temperatures and geopotential heights were both higher relative to average in June than in July/August in the analog aggregate of 1983, 1988, and 1995.

 

Precipitation-wise, it's a mixed bag, though June tends to be drier than July/August, again, relative to average.

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Here is the Snoqulamie Falls data... downloaded years ago and color coded it.    Shows high temp, low temp, total precip for the day.

 

 

 

http://s23.postimg.org/cgx1odbaz/5_88_2.png

 

 

http://s23.postimg.org/x16h0lgfv/6_88.png

 

http://s13.postimg.org/6w531b0zr/7_88_3.png

 

http://s13.postimg.org/y8i928ibr/7_88.png

 

 

http://s28.postimg.org/5o3axitxp/7_88_5.png

 

 

 

July, August, and September was the peak of summer.   Getting past your peak is when it finally turns warm and sunny here. 

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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So much energy being expended on the hopes and dreams of summer 2016.

 

Tim, you're coming across as a bit desperate here. 2013-15 was an exceptional stretch for warm PNW summers, and you know it. I think you see the end coming and are fighting it with all your might.

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A forum for the end of the world.

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So much energy being expended on the hopes and dreams of summer 2016.

 

Tim, you're coming across as a bit desperate here. 2013-15 was an exceptional stretch for warm PNW summers, and you know it. I think you see the end coming and are fighting it with all your might.

Not at all... just wrong information. Tell me the peak of summer in 1988 from that data. 1995 is basically the same with an even better September. Pretty much every summer has been nice here since we moved im 2003 except 2010 and the first part of 2011.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Not at all... just wrong information. Tell me the peak of summer in 1988 from that data. Pretty much every summer has been nice here since we moved im 2003 except 2010 and the first part of 2011.

Yup, PNW summers are dry/sunny in general. That's why I don't understand why you seem so concerned about the details of different analogs or whatever.

 

Winters are more variable, really.

A forum for the end of the world.

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Yup, PNW summers are dry/sunny in general. That's why I don't understand why you seem so concerned about the details.

His macro level does not match up to the actual weather here... that is all.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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In terms of relative to average, 1983 had an early peak. And no, that wasn't due to a volcano.

 

Not that it really matters.

 

 

Well... it rained here on 21 days in June of 1983.    And then very little from mid-July into October.    Not really an early peak.    

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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It's looking like you'll have a really "nice" April. Those are more rare than "nice" Augusts or September. Hang your hat on that. Live in the moment.

 

 

I would just like Phil to reconcile the actual data from 1988 with what he is saying... so he can see where I am coming from here.    I could have used 1983 or 1995 as well.   

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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In terms of relative to average, 1983 had an early peak. And no, that wasn't due to a volcano.

 

Not that it really matters.

In terms of anomalies in SEA, June was -1 compared to 1981-2010 averages, July was -2.3, August was -.5, and September was -3. At PDX June was -.8, July was -2.7, August was -.4, and September was -3.4. So even in terms of anomalies, that Summer peaked in August. May was warm but I don't think anybody considers that a Summer month around here.

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In terms of anomalies in SEA, June was -1 compared to 1981-2010 averages, July was -2.3, August was -.5, and September was -3. At PDX June was -.8, July was -2.7, August was -.4, and September was -3.4. So even in terms of anomalies, that Summer peaked in August. May was warm but I don't think anybody considers that a Summer month around here.

 

 

And May of 1983 was really skewed by 2 very hot days towards the end.   It rained almost daily and was chilly for the first half of the month.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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SEA average temp:

 

May - 55

June - 60

July - 65

August - 65

September - 60

 

 

May could be +3 and July and August could be -3 and even in that example summer still peaks in July and August in terms of warmth.  

 

I think the problem with Phil's terminology is that he is looking at a macro level and he does not understand how much cooler and wetter that May and June are here on average.   Maybe an east coast bias.   Its almost impossible for summer to peak here in May and June and for July and August to be colder and wetter.   July and August are almost always warmer and drier than May and June... and July and August are almost always tangibly the peak of summer here.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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