The "Dewey's Second Chance" Post Tax-Day Scorchin' April Nicewave Contest! ~ Part Deux (y)

[Front Ranger]

 

I won like the past 4 of these that I participated in, so out of respect for competitive balance I took a break. But the past contest was just so sad...so I'll play this time around.

PDX:

4/15: 63/44

4/16: 72/44

4/17: 82/48

4/18: 84/52

4/19: 73/48

SEA:

4/15: 60/45

4/16: 68/43

4/17: 77/50

4/18: 82/54

4/19: 72/51

[TT-SEA]

So entries due by midnight tonight?

 

I am waiting to see the 00Z models.

[Deweydog]

So entries due by midnight tonight?

 

I am waiting to see the 00Z models.

Friday I think.

 

You may want to wait. Tuesday is like it could be a bias disaster.

[Deweydog]

Mark's going 72, 83, 85, 76.

 

Set it and forget it.

[TT-SEA]

Friday I think.

 

You may want to wait. Tuesday is like it could be a bias disaster.

 

 

I am going cold on Tuesday unless something changes on the 00Z runs.

 

How can Friday be in the contest but the entries not due until that night?

[Deweydog]

I am going cold on Tuesday unless something changes on the 00Z runs.

 

How can Friday be in the contest but the entries not due until that night?

Friday at midnight. Tomorrow night. Thursday night. Prior to Friday during the day. Three days before Monday, two days before three days from next Wednesday.

[FroYoBro]

I think I'm just too nervous to post my guess. 

[TT-SEA]

00Z GFS says Matt was right to go warmer on Tuesday. 

[Deweydog]

I think I'm just too nervous to post my guess. 

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FfZ8yVcnLPs

[Front Ranger]

00Z GFS says Matt was right to go warmer on Tuesday. 

 

Euro has been leading the way lately.

 

Can't believe I'm saying that in April.

[Phil]

Subject to change, should mesoscale guidance shift.

 

SEA

 

4/15: 61/44

4/16: 68/48

4/17: 77/53

4/18: 83/54

4/19: 74/52

 

PDX

 

4/15: 63/44

4/16: 74/49

4/17: 84/58

4/18: 86/53

4/19: 76/52

[Jesse]

Tuesday is looking like the toughest call at this point. Going to wait for a couple more runs, then will post my forecast by this evening.

[Jesse]

I am going cold on Tuesday unless something changes on the 00Z runs.

 

How can Friday be in the contest but the entries not due until that night?

 

Midnight tonight will be Friday. 

[ShawniganLake]

Midnight tonight will be Friday. 

Maybe you should make it 11:59:59pm on Thursday, just to avoid confusion. 

[Jesse]

Maybe you should make it 11:59:59pm on Thursday, just to avoid confusion. 

 

 

I think it will be fine. No one questions why we celebrate New Year's on midnight the night before New Years Day. 

[Phil]

Tuesday is looking like the toughest call at this point. Going to wait for a couple more runs, then will post my forecast by this evening.

For me personally (an outsider) Sunday/Sunday night at PDX is the most difficult given gradients that favor a gusty east wind. I don't know whether or not they'll decouple overnight as I obviously don't follow that.

[BLI snowman]

I still like my Tuesday numbers. Middle ground is the way to go at this point, but with the abundance of southerly flow and residual warmth, 70s are likely as there doesn't look to be much of a mechanism for full on cloudcover that day (i.e. marine push or debris clouds). 

[Jesse]

For me personally (an outsider) Sunday/Sunday night at PDX is the most difficult given gradients that favor a gusty east wind. I don't know whether or not they'll decouple overnight as I obviously don't follow that.

I would say they decouple. Deep easterly flow isn't too common at this point in the season. 50-55 probably a safe range for lows Sunday night (which, just to avoid confusion, is also Monday morning).

[Deweydog]

For me personally (an outsider) Sunday/Sunday night at PDX is the most difficult given gradients that favor a gusty east wind. I don't know whether or not they'll decouple overnight as I obviously don't follow that.

It's really rare for areas away from the gorge or foothills to hold onto the east wind after 10pm or so during the warm season.

[Phil]

Minor updates based on latest guidance:

 

SEA

 

4/15: 58/44

4/16: 67/47

4/17: 77/53

4/18: 85/53

4/19: 78/52

 

PDX

 

4/15: 60/41

4/16: 72/50

4/17: 81/58

4/18: 87/53

4/19: 76/52

[Phil]

I would say they decouple. Deep easterly flow isn't too common at this point in the season. 50-55 probably a safe range for lows Sunday night (which, just to avoid confusion, is also Monday morning).

It's really rare for areas away from the gorge or foothills to hold onto the east wind after 10pm or so during the warm season.

Thanks. Yeah I presumed the diurnal inversion would win, but I haven't followed the area closely enough to be certain of that.

 

I don't know how reliable the higher resolution guidance is out there, but a lot of solutions have a decent mesoscale gradient, with well-mixed soundings persisting until 1-3am at PDX, at which point the surface decouples. Would be a tough call on the low at PDX if they're legitimate. For all I know it could be a regular mesoscale modeling error or something.

[TT-SEA]

12Z ECMWF says that Tuesday is still warm.

 

Hell... even after the crash and with some precip on Wednesday it still shows highs getting up to around 70.

 

Even warmer on Thursday.

[Jesse]

12Z ECMWF says that Tuesday is still warm.

 

Hell... even after the crash and with some precip on Wednesday it still shows highs getting up to around 70.

 

Even warmer on Thursday.

I could have predicted that. That is how everything goes these days.

[Deweydog]

I could have predicted that. That is how everything goes these days.

Today is considerably cooler than last Thursday.

[TT-SEA]

I could have predicted that. That is how everything goes these days.

 

 

The last warm spell resulted in a stronger and more persistent marine push crash than anticipated.

[Jesse]

The last warm spell resulted in a stronger and more persistent marine push crash than anticipated.

True, that really put avoiding a record cold April in jeopardy.

[Front Ranger]

Cool anomalies today!

[TT-SEA]

Cool anomalies today!

 

 

Not up here!   Thank God.   

 

Cool anomalies are a nightmare.   

[Front Ranger]

Not up here!   Thank God.   

 

Cool anomalies are a nightmare.   

 

They certainly have no place in record warm months. 

 

Some places in your area are indeed putting cool anomalies today, though, so I'm not sure what you mean.

[Deweydog]

It's currently five degrees warmer in Olympia compared to my location.

 

What gives??

[TT-SEA]

They certainly have no place in record warm months. 

 

Some places in your area are indeed putting cool anomalies today, though, so I'm not sure what you mean.

 

 

58/44 so far today at SEA... it will be a little above normal today.     

 

56 here right now.   Guessing this is pretty close to an average mid-April day in King County.

 

That is all.  

[Front Ranger]

58/44 so far today at SEA... it will be a little above normal today.     

 

56 here right now.   Guessing this is pretty close to an average mid-April day in King County.

 

That is all.  

 

Well below the 2014-2016 averages.

[BLI snowman]

Well below the 2014-2016 averages.

 

Small potatoes. Coming after the utterly historic cold of spring 2011 and the chilly December of 2009, anything would feel warm. 

[James Jones]

PDX:

 

4/15: 60/44

4/16: 72/45

4/17: 82/47

4/18: 86/53

4/19: 72/53

 

 

Mark is going really warm with this. 75, 85, 88, 79 for the highs. I'll enter his numbers into this just for fun:

 

4/15: 61/45

4/16: 75/46

4/17: 85/49

4/18: 88/51

4/19: 79/54

[Deweydog]

PDX:

 

61/46

71/43

81/47

85/53

70/52

Couple of minor tweaks, otherwise let it ride...

 

60/45

71/42

82/48

86/53

70/53

[Front Ranger]

PDX:

 

4/15: 60/44

4/16: 72/45

4/17: 82/47

4/18: 86/53

4/19: 72/53

 

 

Mark is going really warm with this. 75, 85, 88, 79 for the highs. I'll enter his numbers into this just for fun:

 

4/15: 61/45

4/16: 75/46

4/17: 85/49

4/18: 88/51

4/19: 79/54

Clearly trolling this contest/Jesse.

[BLI snowman]

PDX

 

 

4/15: 63/43

4/16: 72/44

4/17: 82/51

4/18: 87/57

4/19: 74/56

 

SEA

 

4/15: 61/45

4/16: 67/46

4/17: 75/52

4/18: 81/56

4/19: 70/53

[TT-SEA]

SEA:

4/15: 61/44

4/16: 68/46

4/17: 75/48

4/18: 83/55

4/19: 75/53

 

PDX:

4/15: 62/46

4/16: 74/44

4/17: 84/47

4/18: 87/56

4/19: 74/54

[Deweydog]

Jesse's gonna have a busy few days keeping track of this.

[Phil]

How are we structuring the low temperatures in accordance with the date change? Would a low temperature at 6AM on 4/17, for example, count as the low for 4/17 or overnight on 4/16?