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The "Dewey's Second Chance" Post Tax-Day Scorchin' April Nicewave Contest! ~ Part Deux (y)


Jesse

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How are we structuring the low temperatures in accordance with the date change? Would a low temperature at 6AM on 4/17, for example, count as the low for 4/17 or overnight on 4/16?

Whatever the high and low is within the calendar day. Just like how the NWS does it.

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How are we structuring the low temperatures in accordance with the date change? Would a low temperature at 6AM on 4/17, for example, count as the low for 4/17 or overnight on 4/16?

 

 

I think we compare to official CF6 data... midnight to midnight I believe.  Makes it more difficult of course.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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PDX:

 

62/46

 

74/44

 

83/47

 

86/51

 

74/53

 

 

Really?

 

We are exactly the same for the first 2 days.   And 1 degree different on Sunday.

 

All comes down to the low temp on Monday morning between us!   Go east wind.   :)

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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PDX


 


4/15: 62/45


4/16: 71/44


4/17: 82/52


4/18: 87/57


4/19: 73/56


 


SEA


 


4/15: 60/44


4/16: 67/46


4/17: 75/50


4/18: 81/54


4/19: 71/53

Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation)

Snow since February 2019: 91"

2023-24: 6"

2022-23: 17.5"

2021-22: 17.75"

2020-21: 14.5”

2019-20: 10.5"

2018-19: 24.75"

 

 

 

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Really?

 

We are exactly the same for the first 2 days. And 1 degree different on Sunday.

 

All comes down to the low temp on Monday morning between us! Go east wind. :)

I guess we are. I didn't look at anyone else's forecast before posting mine from my phone earlier. Great minds I suppose. B)

 

Although now that I'm home I might make a couple last minute tweaks after browsing the models.

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SEA:

4/15: 61/44

4/16: 68/46

4/17: 75/48

4/18: 83/55

4/19: 75/53

 

PDX:

4/15: 62/46

4/16: 74/44

4/17: 84/47

4/18: 87/56

4/19: 74/54

 

 

Update... based on what is occurring now and for the 00Z ECMWF.   Lock it in at 11:50 p.m.   :)

 

SEA:

4/15: 61/44

4/16: 68/46

4/17: 75/48

4/18: 82/50

4/19: 77/53

 

PDX:

4/15: 62/43

4/16: 74/44

4/17: 84/47

4/18: 87/54

4/19: 76/54

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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PDX

 

4/15: 62/45

4/16: 71/44

4/17: 82/52

4/18: 87/57

4/19: 73/56

 

SEA

 

4/15: 60/44

4/16: 67/46

4/17: 75/50

4/18: 81/54

4/19: 71/53

 

Slight adjustment since it's already 45 at PDX.

 

PDX

 

4/15: 62/42

4/16: 71/44

4/17: 82/52

4/18: 87/57

4/19: 73/56

 

SEA

 

4/15: 60/44

4/16: 67/46

4/17: 75/50

4/18: 81/54

4/19: 71/53

Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation)

Snow since February 2019: 91"

2023-24: 6"

2022-23: 17.5"

2021-22: 17.75"

2020-21: 14.5”

2019-20: 10.5"

2018-19: 24.75"

 

 

 

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Minor updates based on latest guidance:

 

SEA

 

4/15: 58/44

4/16: 67/47

4/17: 77/53

4/18: 85/53

4/19: 78/52

 

PDX

 

4/15: 60/41

4/16: 72/50

4/17: 81/58

4/18: 87/53

4/19: 76/52

 

 

No real changes from me. Reformatted lows to correct dates.

 

SEA

 

4/15: 58/44

4/16: 67/44

4/17: 74/47

4/18: 84/54

4/19: 78/52

 

PDX

 

4/15: 61/41

4/16: 72/43

4/17: 81/50

4/18: 86/56

4/19: 80/52

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I'm pleasantly surprised with the turnout for this one. Part of me thought it might just be me and Matt again. :lol:

You should have a fun time scoring this one.

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Funny...

 

PDX clouded up immediately after everyone had the last minute freak out. Good times.

IR-satellite is your friend. :)

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Trying to figure out a mathematically fair way to score the people who did Seattle and Portland forecasts vs people who did only one or the other.

 

I was thinking maybe take an average of their "departures" for high and low for each city for each day.

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Trying to figure out a mathematically fair way to score the people who did Seattle and Portland forecasts vs people who did only one or the other.

 

I was thinking maybe take an average of their "departures" for high and low for each city for each day.

Maybe do seperate scores for PDX and SEA?

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Morning lows:

 

PDX: 42

 

SEA: 47

Are you sure about these?

 

I see PDX @ 44 & SEA @ 46 (including intra-hr) on the NWS site, WU, and WxBug.

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Maybe do seperate scores for PDX and SEA?

Yeah, but then things won't be numerically equivalent. If we are basing who wins off of sheer number of points gained (or lack thereof) based off how far they are off on individual highs and lows, then that would give people who made a forecast for only one station an unfair advantage.

 

I think finding the average amount people were off on highs and low for PDX and SEA in the same time frame, then applying that as a single sum to their point count, is more fair. Puts everyone on a level playing field. Otherwise, we would need two separate contests.

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Are you sure about these?

 

I see PDX @ 44 & SEA @ 46 (including intra-hr) on the NWS site, WU, and WxBug.

 

http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mesowest/getobext.php?wfo=pqr&sid=SEA&num=60&raw=0&banner=off

 

http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mesowest/getobext.php?wfo=pqr&sid=pdx&num=60&raw=0&banner=off

 

Probably best to stay away from Wunderground and WeatherBug for this sort of thing.

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Yeah, but then things won't be numerically equivalent. If we are basing who wins off of sheer number of points gained (or lack thereof) based off how far they are off on individual highs and lows, then that would give people who made a forecast for only one station an unfair advantage.

 

I think finding the average amount people were off on highs and low for PDX and SEA in the same time frame, then applying that as a single sum to their point count, is more fair.

Yeah, I guess that makes more sense numerically. Reduces the luck factor a bit.

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Thanks. I didn't know we were including intra-hour observations because they're not officially counted as highs/lows for the day. I guess it doesn't matter for what we're doing, though.

 

These were the hourly observations I was looking at.

 

http://w1.weather.gov/obhistory/KSEA.html

 

http://w1.weather.gov/obhistory/KPDX.html

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Really? They don't count them here unless they persist for a certain degree of time.

 

That is the case here sometimes too. But if they appear on the six hour summary, that means they made the grade.

 

That's why I waited until 11am PST to post official numbers. That is when the 6-hour MIN/MAX is reported.

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