Money Posted February 14, 2014 Report Share Posted February 14, 2014 Trends are pointing towards a pretty potent cutter with most models getting the low down in the 990-999 range. Discuss the storm here. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted February 14, 2014 Report Share Posted February 14, 2014 I posted this in the Feb thread, didn't see this one. Here is Euro for Monday in Madison. They seem to be in a good spot Monday. Here is the Euro for Madison Monday; FYI for those interested.MON 18Z 17-FEB -4.3 -0.4 1005 85 99 0.11 546 542 TUE 00Z 18-FEB -3.2 -7.6 998 93 97 0.35 531 532 TUE 06Z 18-FEB -4.3 -5.4 1005 84 80 0.04 533 529 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WildWisconsinWeather Posted February 14, 2014 Report Share Posted February 14, 2014 I posted this in the Feb thread, didn't see this one. Here is Euro for Monday in Madison. They seem to be in a good spot Monday. Here is the Euro for Madison Monday; FYI for those interested.MON 18Z 17-FEB -4.3 -0.4 1005 85 99 0.11 546 542 TUE 00Z 18-FEB -3.2 -7.6 998 93 97 0.35 531 532 TUE 06Z 18-FEB -4.3 -5.4 1005 84 80 0.04 533 529 Do you have MKE's text? I'm surprised at how safe from mixing Madison looks to be. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
abhidupage Posted February 14, 2014 Report Share Posted February 14, 2014 Nam 12z is quite snowy and colder for Chicago 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DominicR Posted February 14, 2014 Report Share Posted February 14, 2014 Nam 12z is quite snowy and colder for Chicago Big difference as southern stream vort does not get cut-off thus you have a more solid system furthur south. It's a big outlier so north camp way to go right now. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted February 14, 2014 Author Report Share Posted February 14, 2014 SREF Plumes: MKE: (QPF/SN) 0.5/5.9 LSE: 0.59/7.5 OSH: 0.58/7.5 GRB: 0.58/8.0 ORD: 0.44/4.0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted February 14, 2014 Report Share Posted February 14, 2014 NAM Cobb data gave me 6.1" for this system. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted February 14, 2014 Author Report Share Posted February 14, 2014 SREF plume has about 4.24 for DBQ or so Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 14, 2014 Report Share Posted February 14, 2014 In my personal opinion keep it north where the warmer air won't reach as far next week. On another note it will be interesting to track. 12z GFS is a world of difference. Keeps the low up near Lake Superior/boundary waters area. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted February 14, 2014 Author Report Share Posted February 14, 2014 It has a low in the OK area than it just fizzles out. 2-4 here or so. NAM and GFS difference is insane for being 78 hours out. i know for the east coast system, the GFS was downright awful. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted February 14, 2014 Author Report Share Posted February 14, 2014 GGEM still south/weaker than 0z. Still a good hit for MKE/CHI http://weather.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/233_100.gif Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 14, 2014 Report Share Posted February 14, 2014 GFS always playing catch up in the medium range, then finally latches on 48 hours or so out. It's amazing how bad that model can be with feedback issue only a few days away. NAM would be nice for a majority of us and spreads the wealth a bit. I'd rather have snow then sleet/freezing rain/rain any day. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted February 14, 2014 Report Share Posted February 14, 2014 12z ggem looking like the NAM. These two models have been a good combo this winter. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted February 14, 2014 Author Report Share Posted February 14, 2014 Yup. GGEM looks good from about GB to south of Chicago Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 14, 2014 Report Share Posted February 14, 2014 If this does pan out to be snow for Chicago, it'll be wetter snow that sticks to the trees. I know some of you on here enjoy those type of snow events. I wouldn't mind seeing a winter wonderland over ice. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted February 14, 2014 Author Report Share Posted February 14, 2014 ukmet hr 96: 1004 L in SW MI. Hard to tell where it tracks since you only see 24 hr panels. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 14, 2014 Report Share Posted February 14, 2014 12z GGEM... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
indianajohn Posted February 14, 2014 Report Share Posted February 14, 2014 HAHAHA.......gotta love this winter. We went from 40's on Mon with rain and now models showing 8"+ of snow. Met's are sure earning their money this winter Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
indianajohn Posted February 14, 2014 Report Share Posted February 14, 2014 Mike Caplan ABC7 2 hours ago This morning's run of the NAM (computer forecast model) is alarming for Monday. On top of the 1" or so of snow likely to fall tomorrow, the NAM delivers a much colder solution for Monday including several inches of snow, as indicated by this map. At this point, I am sticking with my earlier prediction of a mix to rain, along with concerns for icing due to very cold ground regardless of how warm Monday gets. However, should further guidance come in with this colder solution for Monday, we may have to gird ourselves for a rockier road to the warmup than currently expected. ......... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sciascia Posted February 14, 2014 Report Share Posted February 14, 2014 I could be seeing it wrong, but the pressure maps on the Euro look more like the NAM than the GFS at 72hrs. The low is stronger than the NAM, though. Which may mean a track thru S WI. Quote ...The Artist Formerly Known as RJSnowLover... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted February 14, 2014 Author Report Share Posted February 14, 2014 12z ECMWF: HR 72: 1002 E KSHR 96: 1000 E of Detroit Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 14, 2014 Report Share Posted February 14, 2014 12z Euro coming in colder and farther south with SLP. 850's never go above 0C for N IL when precip starts. Looks like model consensus is starting to indicate a snow event for N IL. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted February 14, 2014 Author Report Share Posted February 14, 2014 Looks like a general 4-6 or so for S. WI. Nothing big, but should be a nice storm.. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 14, 2014 Report Share Posted February 14, 2014 Now we need to start seeing late next week's system push farther SE. I would say that we have a good shot of that happening. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted February 14, 2014 Author Report Share Posted February 14, 2014 Won't be this run on the euro. Another strong low that cuts through W and N WI Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted February 14, 2014 Author Report Share Posted February 14, 2014 GB going with 3-5 but mentions heavier totals if stronger solutions verify SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE QUICKLY MOVING EASTOF THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AS HEIGHT FALLS OCCUR OF THE PACIFICSHORTWAVES ACROSS THE PLAINS. THETAE ADVECTION WILL INCREASE ACROSSTHE REGION AFTER MIDNIGHT DUE TO STRENGTHENING RETURN FLOW. LOWLEVEL DRY AIR WILL BE INITIALLY FIGHTING OFF THE PRECIP...BUT THINKLIGHT SNOW WILL BE INTO AT LEAST CENTRAL AND NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSINAFTER MIDNIGHT. NOT AS CONFIDENT ACROSS THE EAST...AND HOPE TO HAVETHIS IRONED OUT AS DETAILS BECOME MORE CLEAR. THE MAIN BRUNT OF THESTORM WILL MOVE THROUGH ON MONDAY. GOOD QG FORCING AND MID-LEVELFGEN COMBINED WITH PWATS AROUND 0.5 INCHES SHOULD LEAD TO A SOLIDBAND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. THEINHERITED FORECAST SHOWS 3-5 INCHES OF SNOW...AND THIS LOOKS ABOUTRIGHT FOR NOW. SOME POTENTIAL FOR HIGHER SNOW AMOUNTS AND BLOWINGAND DRIFTING IF THE STRONGER SOLUTIONS WORK OUT. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 14, 2014 Report Share Posted February 14, 2014 18z NAM for this system only. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted February 14, 2014 Author Report Share Posted February 14, 2014 MKE going with 3-5 but mentions heavier amounts if stronger solutions occur. Also mentions lesser amounts if the GFS is correct. FOR SUN NT...AN AMPLIFYING SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS SET TO TRACK FROMTHE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE TROUGH WILLINDUCE CYCLOGENESIS WITHIN THE LEE TROUGH THAT IS ALREADY PRESENT.THE LOW WILL DEEPEN AS IT TRACKS FROM MO TO NRN IN WITH THESTENGTHENING SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRACKING FROM CENTRAL IL TO NEARLAKE ERIE. THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS PHASED WITH ANOTHER MOVING EWDACROSS THE NRN PLAINS AND NRN GRTLKS DURING THIS PERIOD.IMPRESSIVE WARM ADVECTION INCLUDING AT THE JET LEVEL IS EXPECTEDOVER THE REGION WHILE THE MOST FOCUSED FRONTOGENESIS AND HIGHERQPF REMAINS JUST SOUTH OF WI. MOSTLY SNOW IS ANTICIPATED WITH ACHANCE OF SLEET IN FAR SRN WI. GENERAL SNOW ACCUMS AT THIS TIMERANGE FROM 3-5 INCHES. IF GREATER DEEPENING OF THE SFC LOW CANOCCUR...THEN HIGHER SNOW AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE. CONVERSELY...IF THEGFS IS MORE CORRECT ON KEEPING THE SHORTWAVE MORE NWD AND MOREPROGRESSIVE...THEN LESS SNOW WOULD OCCUR. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 14, 2014 Report Share Posted February 14, 2014 Interesting AFD's, wondering what LOT is going to write up... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 14, 2014 Report Share Posted February 14, 2014 LOT going with several inches north and freezing rain south but not much specifics in their write-up... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 14, 2014 Report Share Posted February 14, 2014 I'm thinking snow to freezing rain/sleet then rain with Monday's system as WAA powers its way in. 2-3" snow max here. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 14, 2014 Report Share Posted February 14, 2014 Recent model runs showing better phasing with this system and a track farther south. This could also become an overachiever for N IL/N IN/S MI. I'd like to see what tomorrow's runs show before jumping in on snow totals. There is a good chance this could become all snow instead of mixing as SLP deepens. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted February 14, 2014 Report Share Posted February 14, 2014 DMX siding with nam, euro and ggem solutions and pretty much disregarding gfs. This is awesome as it would mean a slower and colder system, and more snow than mix. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 14, 2014 Report Share Posted February 14, 2014 Brant Miller's model showed 5-7" of snow area wide for this system.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clintbeed1993 Posted February 14, 2014 Report Share Posted February 14, 2014 Too bad Nebraska will continue to miss out on the snow. We just can't buy a single storm this year. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott26 Posted February 15, 2014 Report Share Posted February 15, 2014 This is definitely going to be a interesting storm to track. Should be a heavy axis of snow somewhere. My guess is from the northern burbs of Illinois up to Green Bay will be in the heaviest axis of snow. There will likely be some serious icing issues with this system further to the west. There should be enough cold air where all of us will see at least mixed precipitation. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FV-Mike Posted February 15, 2014 Report Share Posted February 15, 2014 Skilling just posted on FB. Potential for substantive snow mon night into tues Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 15, 2014 Report Share Posted February 15, 2014 Bill Bellis just showed the NAM model and it painted widespread 5-7" totals over N IL. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WildWisconsinWeather Posted February 15, 2014 Report Share Posted February 15, 2014 Bill Bellis just showed the NAM model and it painted widespread 5-7" totals over N IL. Much of that is iffy. Right now I'd say 3-5" in N Illinois, maybe isolated 6" with some sleet and freezing rain mixed in, not quite as pessimistic as Geos. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DominicR Posted February 15, 2014 Report Share Posted February 15, 2014 Yeah same here. Not getting to excited yet. A lot of will be demolished by end of next weekend anyways but will see where this takes us this weekend. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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