Jump to content

2-17 Lower Lakes Winter Storm


Money

Recommended Posts

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0110
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1130 AM CST MON FEB 17 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHERN WI/NORTHERN IL TO WEST-CENTRAL/NORTHERN
   INDIANA AND SOUTHERN LOWER MI

   CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW

   VALID 171730Z - 172230Z

   SUMMARY...MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
   EASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF WI...MUCH OF
   NORTHERN/PARTS OF CENTRAL IL INCLUDING THE CHICAGO METRO AREA...INTO
   NORTHERN/WEST-CENTRAL INDIANA AND SOUTHWEST LOWER MI. WITH THE
   HEAVIEST SNOW...RATES WILL EXCEED 1+ IN/HR FOR A COUPLE HOUR
   DURATION. ADDITIONALLY...SOME THUNDERSTORMS AND MIXED WINTER
   PRECIPITATION INCLUDING SOME SLEET/FREEZING RAIN AND SNOW WILL BE
   POSSIBLE PARTICULARLY ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL/EAST-CENTRAL IL INTO
   NORTHWEST INDIANA.

   DISCUSSION...A PROGRESSIVE/MODESTLY AMPLIFYING SHORTWAVE TROUGH
   CENTERED OVER THE LOWER MO RIVER VALLEY LATE THIS MORNING WILL
   CONTINUE STEADILY EASTWARD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. PROGRESSION OF
   THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED DPVA/WARM ADVECTION AND UPPER
   JET EXIT REGION INDUCED DIVERGENCE WILL LEAD TO A GENERAL EASTWARD
   SPREAD OF RELATIVELY STRONG UVV ACROSS THE REGION THIS
   AFTERNOON...PARTICULARLY ACROSS SOUTHERN WI/LOWER MI AND THE
   NORTHERN HALVES OF IL/INDIANA. SIMILAR TO 12Z OBSERVED
   SOUNDINGS...REGIONAL FORECAST SOUNDINGS GENERALLY REFLECT AMPLE UVV
   COINCIDENT WITH A SATURATED MID-LEVEL DENDRITIC LAYER SUPPORTIVE OF
   MODERATE/LOCALLY HEAVIER SNOW FOR A MULTI-HOUR
   DURATION...PARTICULARLY GIVEN INFLUENCES OF WEAK ELEVATED
   INSTABILITY ESPECIALLY ACROSS PARTS OF IL/INDIANA.

   THE 12Z OBSERVED SOUNDING FROM LINCOLN IL SAMPLED AROUND 60 J/KG OF
   MUCAPE BASED ABOVE 700 MB...WITH NEARLY 700 J/KG OF MUCAPE PER 12Z
   SPRINGFIELD MO. ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE PROXIMITY OF THE UPPER DRY SLOT
   AS PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...AVAILABLE INSTABILITY WILL CONTINUE TO
   SUPPORT THUNDERSNOW AND/OR MIXED PRECIPITATION IN ASSOCIATION WITH
   THUNDERSTORMS SUCH HAS BEEN REPORTED RECENTLY AT CHAMPAIGN IL /KCMI/
   AND IS OTHERWISE EVIDENT IN RADAR/LIGHTNING NETWORK DATA ACROSS
   CENTRAL/PARTS OF NORTHEAST IL THIS MORNING.
 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

DVN cutting totals by 25% in some areas over here. Forecast was 5-7" here, will probably have maybe 3"... Glad it took them to the end of the storm to realize we weren't getting 5-7"...

 

Still got to see some nice snowfall at times, though, so the storm wasn't a completely failure.

 

Storm moved too fast for you guys. IL/S. WI still look good for 4-6 with maybe an isolated spot or two higher than that. Radar starting to fill in a bit.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

This system is in a hurry. 4" looks ok, but I think 3-4" will be the general rule in this area. Especially with the wind compacting the snow down.

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I really dont care anymore.

 

+1.

 

Just the sight of the snow and wind is enough this time around.

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I am over 4" here, when it came down it was the hardest of the year I have seen. If it snows at a moderate rate I can see clearing 5"....depends when it ends for me.

Dubuque 2007-2008 Winter


 


78.1"  Total snowfall


February Snowfall 32.5"


City salt usage  : 12,211 tons


Days of measurable snow  : 40

Link to comment
Share on other sites

0.8 inches as of noon at ORD.

 

Wow, that's it!

 

Probably close to an inch here.

 

...A lot of lightning and t-snow reports coming out central IL north of the mix zone.

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Unfortunately, your content contains terms that we do not allow. Please edit your content to remove the highlighted words below.
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...

×
×
  • Create New...