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2-17 Lower Lakes Winter Storm


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Euro maps are 10:1 and the reason why I post precip maps is because some systems will have higher snow ratios.  You can do the math yourself to get a general idea of snow fall totals.  Here is the Euro snowfall map.  I think Accuweather Pro has Euro snowfall maps.  Maybe Bud can post them.

 

 

 

 

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Euro maps are 10:1 and the reason why I post precip maps is because some systems will have higher snow ratios. You can do the math yourself to get a general idea of snow fall totals. Here is the Euro snowfall map. I think Accuweather Pro has Euro snowfall maps. Maybe Bud can post them.

How much of that needs to be taken off with today's system in Iowa. Having trouble loading it on wxbell that's easily low end warning snow

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Euro last 3 runs for ORD

12Z: 0.50 QPF (yesterday)

0Z: 0.36 QPF

12Z: 0.43 QPF

 

It has definitely been trending colder as well. I'm thinking this will be a solid low end warning type snow 4-6 inches widespread. Like Tony said the Euro may even be underestimating the amount of moisture with this system. We will see, but it's going to be a solid storm no matter what.

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This storm has potential to rapidly deepen as it heads into S IL/IN into NW OH and therefore produce a lot of moisture with a wide open Gulf.  Not to mention the jet stream is in an ideal position to produce maximum lift and deep DGZ growth zone and forcing.

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BTW, this is off topic but did anyone catch the USA vs Russia Olympic hockey game???  What an amazing game.

Yup, one of the best Olympic hockey games I have ever seen. I luckily woke up early enough to see the last period, overtime and the shootout. Kaner had a couple of good chances to end the game in OT. I'm not the biggest fan of the shootout in hockey, but I kind of like the rule where instead of alternating shooters the teams can keep the same shooter after the first three.

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MKE really cut back on the high temps that were forecasted a few days ago.

 

Now a high of 23 on Monday. Should be that fluffy snow again,

 

Snow. High near 23. Southeast wind 5 to 15 mph becoming southwest in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of 2 to 4 inches possible.

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Nice, glad to see there are some hockey fans on this board.  Scott, I know you like hockey and I also didn't know they can keep alternating the same players in a shootout.  I DVR'd the game so I'll probably start watching the entire game after the Latvia/Sweden game going on now.  Oduya and Hammer are playing from the Hawks!  I just saw the highlights...I'm sure all the drunk Ruzki's are belligerent in Mother Russia right about now...Hahahah!

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Your probably right, but the snow will be coming down hard and during the evening commute.  Even if it turns out being a 4-6" with locally more, that still would constitute a WSW IMO.  It's looking better organized and moisture laden so it could trend wetter also.

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Dragged myself out of bed to catch the whole USAvsRUS game. Spectacular game, as others have said. Funny how Oshie took 6 of the 8 shots, as international rules allow for.

 

GFS would not be my model of choice at the moment. Probably a 3-5" conservative call from me, just in case GFS is sniffing something out. Would readily bump up to 4-7" if GFS caves to wetter ideas.

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Huge hockey fan here UW season ticket holder. Got up for the whole game and I have to say I almost hope they don't play each other again, as I don't know if that can be matched again how it all played out. Anyways amazing how this was a rain mix situation and now getting missed to the south. The pattern continues

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Huge hockey fan here UW season ticket holder. Got up for the whole game and I have to say I almost hope they don't play each other again, as I don't know if that can be matched again how it all played out. Anyways amazing how this was a rain mix situation and now getting missed to the south. The pattern continues

 

What?

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BTW, this is off topic but did anyone catch the USA vs Russia Olympic hockey game???  What an amazing game.

 

Yes it was! As good as you could hope (ask) for and come out on the short end of the stick.. (no pun intended) :(

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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LSE AFD: Considered a WSW but decided to hold off based on agreement between the other neighbors 

 

TIGHTENING MODEL CONSENSUS AND 15.15Z SREF MEAN CONTINUE
TO PRODUCE A BROAD AREA OF 3 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS THE FCST
AREA FROM LATE SUN NIGHT INTO MON AFTERNOON. MOST OF IT FALLING IN
THE 12-18Z PERIOD MON MORNING AND IMPACTING THE MORNING COMMUTE.
POTENTIAL FOR VSBYS BELOW 1/2 MILE AND SNOW RATES OF 1 INCH/HR...
MUCH LIKE THE SYSTEM PASSING TODAY. CONSIDERED A WINTER STORM WATCH
FOR PORTIONS OF THE FCST AREA BUT WILL HOLD OFF FOR NOW GIVEN
AGREEMENT AMONG NEIGHBORING OFFICES.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY APPEARS
QUITE LIKELY BUT A BIT EARLY FOR THAT AND WILL PASS OFF TO NIGHT
CREW ONCE THE CURRENT SYSTEM IS OUT OF THE AREA. WILL HIT HARD IN
THE HWO AND OTHER PRODUCTS FOR NOW. DID RAISE -SN CHANCES TO 70-90
PERCENT FOR MUCH OF THE FCST AREA LATE SUN NIGHT THEN TO 90-100
PERCENT MON MORNING...TRENDING DOWN/OUT TO THE EAST MON AFTERNOON.

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LOT AFD (some good thoughts)

 

FOLLOWING THIS SYSTEM...THE NEXT MAJOR CONCERN IS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY AS ANOTHER POSSIBLY SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM TAKES AIM ON
THE AREA. THIS PARTICULAR SYSTEM IS PROVING TO BE MORE CHALLENGING
THAN AVERAGE AS THIS SYSTEM WILL BE EJECTING OUT OF THE EASTERN
PACIFIC ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER LOW ACROSS
SOUTHWESTERN ALASKA TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. AS THIS DISTURBANCE
CRASHES ONSHORE ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ON SUNDAY...THE ENERGY
IS EXPECTED TO BECOME SPLIT...WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM POSSIBLY
MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA AND THE NORTHERN CONUS...AND THE
SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY POSSIBLY TRACKING ACROSS OUR AREA ON MONDAY.
BECAUSE OF THIS...THE MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN HAVING ISSUES WITH THE
EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM AS IT TRAVERS THE CENTRAL CONUS. THE 12 UTC
ECMWF...GEM AND UKMET ARE IN THE SAME BOAT...SUGGESTING THAT THIS
MID LEVEL SYSTEM WILL EVOLVE INTO A NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH AND BE
A SLOWER MOVER ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY. HOWEVER...BOTH THE 12 UTC
NAM AND GFS SUGGEST A QUICKER MORE PROGRESSIVE SOLUTION. CURRENT
THINKING IS TO TREND TOWARDS A SLOWER SOLUTION CLOSER TO THE ECMWF
AND GEM AS IT APPEARS MORE LIKELY THAT THE SYSTEM MOVING UP THE EAST
COAST WILL SLOW THE PROGRESS OF THE WESTERN SYSTEM...HENCE MAKING IT
MORE LIKELY FOR IT TO TAKE ON A NEGATIVE TILT. CONFIDENCE WITH THIS
SYSTEM IS STILL BELOW AVERAGE...HOWEVER.


OVERALL...THIS SLOWER AND STRONGER SOLUTION COULD FAVOR MORE OF A
SNOW EVENT FOR MUCH OF MY AREA RATHER THAN ICE. I CONTINUED THE
TREND OF MENTIONING ONLY SNOW FAR NORTH AND CONTINUED THE WINTER MIX
FOR MY SOUTHERN AREAS. THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE SNOW
AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF 6 INCHES GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG DYNAMIC
FORCING AND VERY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES.
THE THREAT FOR ICE
ACCUMULATIONS IS NOT ZERO...BUT IT APPEARS TO BE
DECREASING...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE AREA...WHERE IT APPEARS THE COLUMN MAY REMAIN COLD ENOUGH FOR
MAINLY SNOW. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY STILL IN PLACE WITH THIS
SYSTEM...I HAVE CHOSEN NOT TO ISSUE A WATCH AT THIS TIME.

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MKE with a pretty weak AFD and not a lot of thoughts on the system.

 

AN AMPLIFYING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL TRACK FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES
TO THE MID MO RIVER VALLEY BY 12Z MON AND THEN CONTINUE ACROSS IL
ON MON. THE MODELS DIFFERS ON THE EVOLUTION AND TRACK OF
CYCLOGENESIS BUT EITHER WAY WE WILL SEE AN IMPRESSIVE ROUND OF
DEEP WARM..MOIST ADVECTION AND PVA MON AM. THE FAST SPEED OF THE SYSTEM
SHOULD KEEP SNOW ACCUMS IN THE 3-5 INCH RANGE...AND BELOW WINTER
STORM WARNING CRITERIA EVEN IF THE CYCLOGENESIS BECOMES MORE
FAVORABLE IN ENHANCING THE LIFT. A WINTER WX ADVISORY WILL LIKELY
BE NEEDED FOR MONDAY.
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Nice write up from LOT...from looking at the 18z NAM 500mb map, it does look like the system wants to go neg tilt.  Trends are only getting stronger and better phased so we may in fact see higher results from this system...especially when better data comes in tomorrow from the balloon network.

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