2-19/2-21 Great Lakes Winter Storm...Heavy Rain/Flooding and Snow

[Money]

NAM looks like an ice/snow event here looking at the precip types

[Tom]

00z NAM keeps temps in low 30's when the rain comes and briefly bumps up into low 40's before they tank...a lot of rain though....

 

[WildWisconsinWeather]

NAM looks like an ice/snow event here looking at the precip types

 

Your front end 2-3" for MKE is all mix it looks like.  The 0C line near the surface is all the way into N Wisconsin even on Wednesday evening.

[East Dubzz]

Is that a closed off, negative tilt storm at HR 69?

[Tom]

Accumulating snow is pretty far NW this run...

[Money]

21z SREF

 

DBQ: 

 

QPF

 

Mean: 0.67

Highest: 1.89

Lowest: 0.16

 

Snow:

 

Mean: 2.26

Highest: 4.32

Lowest: 0.19

 

MSN:

 

QPF:

 

Mean: 0.69

Highest: 1.73

Lowest: 0.29

 

Snow:

 

Mean: 2.61

Highest: 6.70

Lowest: 0.79

 

MKE:

 

QPF:

 

Mean: 0.65

Highest: 1.24

Lowest: 0.35

 

Snow:

 

Mean: 2.27

Highest: 6.09

Lowest: 0.00

 

ORD:

 

QPF

 

Mean: 0.80

Highest: 1.56

Lowest: 0.31

 

Snow

 

Mean: 1.38

Highest: 3.41

Lowest: 0.00

 

OSH:

 

QPF

 

Mean: 0.65

Highest: 1.59

Lowest: 0.24

 

Snow

 

Mean: 3.60

Highest: 8.88

Lowest: 1.09

[East Dubzz]

So is the SREF further SE or NW?

[Money]

Your front end 2-3" for MKE is all mix it looks like.  The 0C line near the surface is all the way into N Wisconsin even on Wednesday evening.

 

instant weathermaps has it as all snow. Bufkit should update soon which should tell you the answer.

[Money]

So is the SREF further SE or NW?

 

Has a 996 L over C/S parts of Lake Michigan. Seems like its a split though because a frame before that it's at 1002 mb which seems pretty weak. Not really in the SREF/NAM range yet as this is 72 hours out yet. 

[DominicR]

Really?  Are you saying you think almost no precip in the cold sector, or are you thinking it's coming SE?

 

I think we are rain and it be stronger. I am a bit surprised how weak cold sector precip is. I think it become more earnest.

[DominicR]

I havent really looked into it but based on 500mb energy this prob gonna be a pretty organized snowstorm in northwest part of Lakes. I think it's mainly rain though for us.

[Geos]

Yeah NAM is really wet in these parts. Big problems would ensue. 

 

Sounding for MKE at 63 hours would point to sleet/frz rain more than snow.

 

[East Dubzz]

I think we are rain and it be stronger. I am a bit surprised how weak cold sector precip is. I think it become more earnest.

The cold sector seems to become a little better once this thing for negative tilt and gets more precip and colder air mixed in.

[Money]

A more organized/negative tilt system should pull in colder air on the nw side of it fyi

[Iowawx]

I havent really looked into it but based on 500mb energy this prob gonna be a pretty organized snowstorm in northwest part of Lakes. I think it's mainly rain though for us.

How do you think we will do in East Central Iowa? 

[East Dubzz]

A more organized/negative tilt system should pull in colder air on the nw side of it fyi

But here's the problem with that. If it go negative tilt earlier, then it will probably go further NW, and if it's slower, then it'll be a weaker and probably warmer. I don't see this working out too good for most of us.

[WildWisconsinWeather]

A more organized/negative tilt system should pull in colder air on the nw side of it fyi

 

A low to Green Bay will be hard pressed historically to give us snow, or even much frozen precip at all unless we're talking about a January 1999 system with cold air entrenched ahead of the system, which will not be the case.  A snowpack makes rain less likely, but unfortunately it doesn't make a difference in terms of sleet/freezing rain vs snow.

[East Dubzz]

How do you think we will do in East Central Iowa?

Gonna be a close call, will probably be mostly rain and then maybe some snow on the backside.

[Money]

A low to Green Bay will be hard pressed historically to give us snow, or even much frozen precip at all unless we're talking about a January 1999 system with cold air entrenched ahead of the system, which will not be the case.  A snowpack makes rain less likely, but unfortunately it doesn't make a difference in terms of sleet/freezing rain vs snow.

 

Yeah, I see FZR/Sleet more likely than snow here. SREF/NAM hardly have rain here and it stays all frozen precip. It's going to be tough for you though considering the front will be to your west.

[Money]

Your front end 2-3" for MKE is all mix it looks like.  The 0C line near the surface is all the way into N Wisconsin even on Wednesday evening.

 

Bufkit

 

140220/1000Z 58 15010KT 29.7F FZRA 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.01|| 0.008 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.01|| 0.01 0| 0|100

140220/1100Z 59 13011KT 31.4F SNOW 13:1| 1.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.128 13:1| 1.7|| 0.00|| 0.01|| 0.14 100| 0| 0

140220/1200Z 60 11013KT 32.4F RASN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.061 13:1| 1.7|| 0.00|| 0.01|| 0.20 54| 0| 46

----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---

140220/1300Z 61 10016KT 32.1F SNOW 13:1| 1.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.119 13:1| 3.2|| 0.00|| 0.01|| 0.32 100| 0| 0

140220/1400Z 62 09018KT 31.4F SNPL 1:1| 0.3|| 0.31|| 0.00|| 0.201 8:1| 3.5|| 0.31|| 0.01|| 0.52 23| 77| 0

140220/1500Z 63 09018KT 31.7F FZRA 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.12|| 0.119 8:1| 3.5|| 0.31|| 0.13|| 0.64 0| 0|100

140220/1600Z 64 10018KT 32.1F FZRA 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.019 8:1| 3.5|| 0.31|| 0.13|| 0.65 0| 0|100

140220/1700Z 65 11014KT 32.1F FZRA 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.020 8:1| 3.5|| 0.31|| 0.13|| 0.67 0| 0|100

140220/1800Z 66 12011KT 32.3F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.030 8:1| 3.5|| 0.31|| 0.13|| 0.70 0| 0|100

----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---

140220/1900Z 67 13010KT 32.4F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.007 8:1| 3.5|| 0.31|| 0.13|| 0.71 0| 0|100

140220/2000Z 68 15009KT 33.0F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.004 8:1| 3.5|| 0.31|| 0.13|| 0.71 0| 0|100

140220/2100Z 69 19010KT 34.4F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.014 8:1| 3.5|| 0.31|| 0.13|| 0.73 0| 0|100

140220/2200Z 70 22016KT 36.6F DZ 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.012 8:1| 3.5|| 0.31|| 0.13|| 0.74 0| 0|100

140220/2300Z 71 24021KT 34.1F DZ 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.005 8:1| 3.5|| 0.31|| 0.13|| 0.75 0| 0|100

140221/0000Z 72 25024KT 33.2F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 8:1| 3.5|| 0.31|| 0.13|| 0.75 0| 0| 0

 

 

3.5 SN

0.13 FZR

0.31 SL

[Iowawx]

00Z GFS is running now. Any thoughts on what it will show?

[East Dubzz]

I'm gonna guess the SLP is very similar to the NAM, passing right around or just a little to the east or west of Dubuque.

[Tom]

I think the eventual track will be right over Chicago and there will be snow in NW IL/E IA/S WI (except for SE WI)...same thing that happened in Cycle 2...

[Money]

GFS gonna be NW of 18z.

[East Dubzz]

Actually, doesn't look all that different.

[Money]

Stronger, similar track. 

[Geos]

Ouch...

 

 

Low track from south of KC to MKE it looks like on the GFS.

[East Dubzz]

Yup, almost identical track, but a tad stronger. Money, how do the thermal profiles look compared to the NAM? Colder? Warmer?

[Iowawx]

This run gives me some snow!!!! Maybe its on to something........

[DominicR]

Ouch...

 

http://www.americanwx.com/bb/uploads/monthly_02_2014/post-7389-0-09909700-1392695485.png

 

Low track from south of KC to MKE it looks like on the GFS.

:o

[East Dubzz]

Precip really not too impressive in the cold sector until it gets further into Wisconsin.

[Money]

Yup, almost identical track, but a tad stronger. Money, how do the thermal profiles look compared to the NAM? Colder? Warmer?

 

Hard to tell tbh.

 

3-6 from DBQ up to GRB and NW from there according to the GFS.

[Snowshoe]

Right over Kenosha.

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller/data/gfs/00/gfs_namer_072_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif

[Money]

Just literally need a 30-40 mile shift SE here.

[East Dubzz]

Hard to tell tbh.

 

3-6 from DBQ up to GRB and NW from there according to the GFS.

I don't think DBQ is quite in that 3-6" range, but the GFS does seem a tad cooler than the NAM.

[Snowshoe]

Goes straight up the lake to Sault St.Marie.

[Money]

GGEM

 

HR 72: 987 just E of DBQ

[East Dubzz]

Crazy how good consistent models have been with bigger scale storms like this. But, when a clipper comes through, it can't even figure out the track when the storm is actually hitting the area.

[bud2380]

Ggem runs the low just east of Dubuque. Lots of moisture and cold air on the backside

[East Dubzz]

Hey guys, I'm just east of Dubuque, lol