May 2016 Observations and Discussion

[Hawkeye]

That big upper low dropping down and parking over the eastern lakes next week on the euro is pretty ugly.  Even over here on the western periphery, the latest euro has us struggling to reach 60 Wednesday and Thursday after a brief, tepid recovery Mon/Tue.

 

I have a bunch of plants waiting to be planted, but it will be a while longer.  Hopefully, this pattern will finally flip by next weekend.

[Geos]

Thanks for starting this Hawkeye.

 

Yeah it looks like another cool shot coming...

 

NAM trying to mess with Monday's forecast now.

 

 

 

And Tuesday...

 

[Hawkeye]

In their afternoon disco, DVN said they are leaning toward the upper low being a little more progressive.

[westMJim]

Welcome to May! Looking out my window the one thing that really stand out is just how green everything is right now.  With April 2016 now in the record books lets take a look and see how it turned out. April 2016 came in with a mean temperature of 46.0° and that is -2.0° below average and April was the first month here in Grand Rapids that was below average temperature wise since last August. (let’s hope that is not a trend for the summer time) the average high this April was 56.0° and the average low was 36.0° officially there was 3.92” of precipitation (3.35” is average) there was 9.4’ of snow fall (1.8” is average) you would have to go back to 1982 to have seen an April with more snow fall (12.4’ fell that April) the highest temperature this April was a very warm 82° on the 18^th and the coldest was a bone chilling 20° on the 5^th

[westMJim]

Welcome to May! Looking out my window the one thing that really stand out is just how green everything is right now.  With April 2016 now in the record books lets take a look and see how it turned out. April 2016 came in with a mean temperature of 46.0° and that is -2.0° below average and April was the first month here in Grand Rapids that was below average temperature wise since last August. (let’s hope that is not a trend for the summer time) the average high this April was 56.0° and the average low was 36.0° officially there was 3.92” of precipitation (3.35” is average) there was 9.4’ of snow fall (1.8” is average) you would have to go back to 1982 to have seen an April with more snow fall (12.4’ fell that April) the highest temperature this April was a very warm 82° on the 18^th and the coldest was a bone chilling 20° on the 5^th

[Tom]

Latest CFSv2 for May...looks like a normal looking month temp wise unless you get farther north.  Analogs suggest a warmer month, however, the wet trend of late may but a damper on things unless the pattern changes and the trough sets up farther west near the 4 corners/SW region.  It has been a cooler than normal month out here in AZ as these troughs keep pushing through.  It actually snowed again in Flagstaff yesterday and today we are supposed to pick up another 1-2".  Prob not the last snows as another powerful trough rolls through next weekend.  

 

This should be the last storm in a series of "wet" storms according to the LRC cycle.  So the Midwest/Lakes region may get a break come May 8th and beyond.

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/imagesInd3/glbT2mMonInd1.gif

 

 

GEFS/EPS show the ridging setting up around the 8th and holding for a decent period into Week 2.  Let's see if this can hold for a while so farmers/gardeners can start preparing for planting season.

[Tom]

Here is the updated Canadian (CanSIPS) thinking...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/cansips/2016050100/cansips_z500a_namer_1.png

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/cansips/2016050100/cansips_T2ma_us_1.png

 

 

Pretty similar to the CFSv2...dryness near the Lakes and continued wet in the central/southern Plains.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/cansips/2016050100/cansips_apcpna_month_us_1.png

[Geos]

Anything in the 50s are higher sounds delightful. 7th day of 40s now. 

 

Looks like a lot of back and forth with temps on the GFS.

[Tom]

 

Anything in the 50s are higher sounds delightful. 7th day of 40s now.

 

Looks like a lot of back and forth with temps on the GFS.[/quot

 

12z Euro brings back blocking near Greenland and Alaska and cooler wx Day 8-10. Gosh, I sure hope this isn't the theme going forward. I plan on coming back to Chicago sometime in and around the 15th so it better feel like Spring!

[Tom]

CPC looks promising...

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/610temp.new.gif

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/814temp.new.gif

 

 

Not nearly as wet as well...

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/610prcp.new.gif

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/814prcp.new.gif

[Tom]

And finally...CPC's updated May Outlook...

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/lead14/off15_temp.gif

 

 

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/lead14/off15_prcp.gif

 

Dryness near the Midwest/Lakes region has been a top analog of Spring '07.

[Geos]

 

Anything in the 50s are higher sounds delightful. 7th day of 40s now.

 

Looks like a lot of back and forth with temps on the GFS.[/quot

 

12z Euro brings back blocking near Greenland and Alaska and cooler wx Day 8-10. Gosh, I sure hope this isn't the theme going forward. I plan on coming back to Chicago sometime in and around the 15th so it better feel like Spring!

 

More blocking! Darn.

Already running 2 weeks behind on the tree green up.

 

Tomorrow is looking similar to today, with maybe a little sun. Tuesday is looking like the best day for awhile. Crazy that myself and other people are wearing light winter coats still.

 

Mid lake buoy has been pretty much at 40° for the last week.

 

[Tom]

Hope this pans out by mid month...

 

http://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/weekly/images1/wk3.wk4_20160501.NAsfcT.gif

[Geos]

Hope this pans out by mid month...

 

 

Maybe I can get some leaves on the trees by then!

[Tom]

The central Plains are certainly going to enjoy a nice stretch of warm/dry weather this week into the weekend.  Farmer's will have their chance to get out and plant.  Vegetation will certainly start growing quickly in these conditions.  Another Omega Block pattern setting up with both coasts of the U.S. seeing unsettled weather while the central states take advantage.

[jaster220]

Don't count out a warm summer, even if May's another bust around the Lakes:   http://www.mlive.com/weather/index.ssf/2016/04/another_reason_why_michigans_s.html#incart_river_index

[Hawkeye]

Today's upper 50s felt pretty decent after a week of cold.  I hope this weekend we can turn the corner for good.

[Geos]

57° here today. Was pretty nice out! Tomorrow will be the warmest of the week for sure in the 60s.

[jaster220]

57° here today. Was pretty nice out! Tomorrow will be the warmest of the week for sure in the 60s.

 

?? I have 74*F in my local 5-day for Saturday - can't. not. wait!

[westMJim]

It’s nice to have the sunshine that I am getting here today and with everything looking so green it sure looks nice outside. Too bad we still have some more wet cool weather coming yet this week. Here is the snow fall for the season as of May 2^nd 2016 (I hope this is the final total for the season)

 

Snow Recap: 2015-2016

Muskegon: 61.8 inches (31.9 below normal)

Grand Rapids: 61.1 inches (13.8 below normal)

Lansing: 50.0 inches (1.1 below normal)

 

Grand Rapids and Lansing were more often harder-hit by area-wide snow storms. Muskegon made up the difference with enough lake-effect snow in January and February to stay ahead of Grand Rapids. Despite snow totals being below normal, total meltwater precipitation was above normal due to several significant weather systems producing sleet, freezing rain, or rain.

[Geos]

?? I have 74*F in my local 5-day for Saturday - can't. not. wait!

 

GFS has been showing a backdoor cold front Saturday morning. Friday could tie today's high.

 

 

Well maybe Friday will be warmer, clouding up here.

 

Edited May 3, 2016 by Geos

[jaster220]

GFS has been showing a backdoor cold front Saturday morning. Friday could tie today's high.

 

 

Well maybe Friday will be warmer, clouding up here.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016050312/gfs_T2m_ncus_18.png

 

Yep, lol, my 74 has been trimmed back to a 68 for Sat making Friday's 70*F and clear skies the new rage!

[Geos]

Yep, lol, my 74 has been trimmed back to a 68 for Sat making Friday's 70*F and clear skies the new rage!

 

That's still really nice for early May.

 

Today back in the 40s. 

 

 

You should check out these horrible wildfires that forced 70k people to evacuate Fort McMurray, Alberta.

 

http://www.cbc.ca/news/trending/live-blog-fort-mcmurray-wildfire-1.3565398

[westMJim]

It’s been one cold raw miserable May day here today. With a stiff north wind and a temperature of only 41° it feels more like March then May. I am now up to 0.93” of rain on the day.

[jaster220]

It’s been one cold raw miserable May day here today. With a stiff north wind and a temperature of only 41° it feels more like March then May. I am now up to 0.93” of rain on the day.

 

Rumors that flakes were flying west of you towards South Haven yesterday pm.  Did you hear/see anything about that? I drove into K'zoo around 5:30 and my car thermo dropped from 45 to 39 deg's in that 35 miles. I joked that we'd prolly see snow before the day was over. Joke was on me if that rumor was based on fact. Ugly, ugly wx - thankfully ending none too soon!

[westMJim]

Rumors that flakes were flying west of you towards South Haven yesterday pm.  Did you hear/see anything about that? I drove into K'zoo around 5:30 and my car thermo dropped from 45 to 39 deg's in that 35 miles. I joked that we'd prolly see snow before the day was over. Joke was on me if that rumor was based on fact. Ugly, ugly wx - thankfully ending none too soon!

Did not see any reports of snow but I did see/feel some ice mixed in with the rain walking in from a local Meijer store.  The outside temperature in the car read 42.  Would not surprise me at all if there was a few flakes of snow.

[Tom]

Doesn't look likely that we see any sustained ridging over the next 2 weeks in the Plains/Midwest/Lakes region.  Latest JMA Weeklies indicating a stubborn blocking pattern and more troughiness and cooler than normal weather.  GEFS/EPS are in the same camp.

[Geos]

Rumors that flakes were flying west of you towards South Haven yesterday pm.  Did you hear/see anything about that? I drove into K'zoo around 5:30 and my car thermo dropped from 45 to 39 deg's in that 35 miles. I joked that we'd prolly see snow before the day was over. Joke was on me if that rumor was based on fact. Ugly, ugly wx - thankfully ending none too soon!

 

That was true! South Haven reported snow for awhile. Too warm for accumulation though.

 

50s today, then summer tomorrow, then back to typical spring weather.

 

Some more crappy weather on the EURO again days 5-10.

[Hawkeye]

The upper low ended up being a bit more progressive than what the euro showed a few days ago, so we actually had a pretty good week.  We managed to reach the mid 60s yesterday and upper 60s today.  The light wind made today particularly pleasant.  Friday may be our warmest day of the year.  DVN has me hitting 84.

[Tom]

It's interesting to see how far south the smoke from the Canadian fires travel...all the way down to the Gulf Coast.

 

 

Can anyone smell it in the air???

[james1976]

I havent noticed the smoke from the wildfires.
Its 88 right now. Summer!

[Geos]

It's interesting to see how far south the smoke from the Canadian fires travel...all the way down to the Gulf Coast.

 

 

Can anyone smell it in the air???

 

I can see the smoke aloft, but can't smell it.

 

Maybe tonight when the winds calm down and the air sinks.

[Tom]

Can't believe Duluth, MN hit 92F yesterday.  That is the earliest high temp to reach that high so early in the season.  It's conceivable that by next weekend, they may have near freezing temps as some real chilly air targets the region.

[Hawkeye]

The smoke moved in here last hour.  It smells like I'm back at boy scout camp.

[Tom]

The smoke from all of the fires we have seen in Alaska/Canada have been a common theme over the last couple summers.  I think that warm ring in the NE PAC has a lot to do with it.  It'll be interesting to see how much of Canada dries out this summer.  Most climate models torch it with not much precip all summer long.

[Tom]

GEFS starting to show signs of firing up a central CONUS ridge sometime towards Day 10-15...Nice...perfect timing for me to get back home and start doing some yard work and plan summer projects.

 

Hawkeye, have you completed your garden yet???

[Hawkeye]

Hawkeye, have you completed your garden yet???

 

I have barely started on my garden.  I need to get my pots done today and at least half my in-ground plants tomorrow before next week's rain soaks the soil.

[Tom]

I have barely started on my garden.  I need to get my pots done today and at least half my in-ground plants tomorrow before next week's rain soaks the soil.

Yup, hopefully you can catch a break later next week or the following weekend and finish most of your planting.

[Niko]

This present storm track would be an ideal track for winter in SEMI. Excellent for snowevents indeed.

Now, hopefully, these rains that I am getting diminish here. I got summer projects to do on my home and need a dry soil. I checked my outlook and it looks pretty decent.

[CentralNebWeather]

Wind has changed to out of the north with storms around and the smoke is very prevalent in the air. Blue Angels air show in Lincoln called off due to low visibility and unhealthy air quality