May 2016 Observations and Discussion

[Niko]

Thunderstorms are in my forecast this week. Looking forward to some severe ones. Its been awhile. Also, mid 80s and somewhat unstable air to arrive. Hello Summer!

[Tom]

Yup, looking forward to seeing some dingers here Wed/Thu.  Glad to see models drying out over MDW.  Might see a pop up storm here or there, but not a wash out so far.

[Geos]

Could use a little rain this week. But it's nice not to have to mow the lawn right now.

 

Enjoying the dry air while it's around. Not looking forward to the higher dewpoints later on. -

 

It's been peaking in the low 70s for the last 3 days with the onshore wind. Pretty strong breeze today.

[Tom]

Nothing but 80's in my forecast through this week!  Might even carry on through the following work week.  If we can get enough sun on Thursday, some spots may get into the upper 80's to near 90F.

 

Gardens in the region will have a nice drink of water.  Models spitting out 1-2"+ of rain.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016052400/gfs_apcpn_ncus_14.png

[Tom]

This is just crazy, places in India are experiencing record heat and drought, which is melting their road ways...

 

http://gizmodo.com/photos-of-indias-deadly-street-melting-heat-wave-1707186192

 

http://abcnews.go.com/International/indias-deadly-heatwave-melting-roads/story?id=31341298

[jaster220]

KRMY has hit 84*F twice inter-hourly. Wow, did this pattern flip hard from flakes to mid-summer conditions inside of 10 days. Now the hope is for a balanced warm season, not the drought stuff Tom posted about India or what we saw in '88 or back in 1936 around the US.

[Geos]

KRMY has hit 84*F twice inter-hourly. Wow, did this pattern flip hard from flakes to mid-summer conditions inside of 10 days. Now the hope is for a balanced warm season, not the drought stuff Tom posted about India or what we saw in '88 or back in 1936 around the US.

 

Yeah it sure did. So typical of spring wx around here. lol

 

Hit 85° here. Dewpoints stayed lower than predicted which was nice.

[Thunder98]

Summer has arrive in the Midwest.

Wausau, Wisconsin weather forecast.

[Tom]

Hit a high of 86F yesterday, felt great, especially at dinner time when there was a nice breeze and the sun was setting.  Very enjoyable sitting outside as the dew points were in the mid 50's.  Some locals even hit 90F yesterday.  Another hot day is in the forecast on Thursday with the humidity.

 

You can feel the humidity creeping on up today.  Dew point sitting in the low 60's.  Looking forward to some storms later today.

[Tom]

CFSv2/GEFS/EPS might be hinting at a cooler pattern during the first part of June.  Not sure if I buy it just yet, but something that may be on the table.

 

It's one run, but CFSv2 showing much cooler weather in the central CONUS.  Probably a lot of rain along with it.

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/monthly/images/summaryCFSv2.NaT2m.201606.gif

[Geos]

Was warming up outside, but now clouds and an east wind have kicked in. 76.8° currently.

[Geos]

Pneumonia front on the way down the lake. Down into the 50s in Racine.

[Geos]

Flash flood potential is there...

 

[westMJim]

Nice and warm here. With the temperatures in the mid and upper 80’s.  But never fear for any snow lovers out there, Michigan still has a few spots with snow still on the ground!

http://www.mtu.edu/webcams/ripley/motion.html

and

http://www.mtu.edu/webcams/

[Tom]

Storms starting to flare up in the western burbs and heading east.  ETA approx 1-2 hours for the Chicagoland area.

[Tom]

Small hail, gusty winds and torrential rain have accompanied these storms rolling in...

 

 

 

Special Weather StatementSPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
428 PM CDT WED MAY 25 2016

ILZ012-013-020-022-252215-
DUPAGE IL-WILL IL-KANE IL-KENDALL IL-
428 PM CDT WED MAY 25 2016

...SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR NORTHEASTERN KENDALL...SOUTHERN
DUPAGE...NORTHWESTERN WILL AND SOUTHEASTERN KANE COUNTIES UNTIL 515
PM CDT...

AT 427 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR
AURORA...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS OF 50 TO 55 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

 

[Tom]

Severe T-Storm Warning...

 

 

 

evere Thunderstorm WarningSEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
ILC031-043-197-252245-
/O.NEW.KLOT.SV.W.0017.160525T2206Z-160525T2245Z/

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
506 PM CDT WED MAY 25 2016

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CHICAGO HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
EASTERN DUPAGE COUNTY IN NORTHEASTERN ILLINOIS...
NORTH CENTRAL WILL COUNTY IN NORTHEASTERN ILLINOIS...
CENTRAL COOK COUNTY IN NORTHEASTERN ILLINOIS...

* UNTIL 545 PM CDT

* AT 506 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED OVER
BOLINGBROOK...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS AND NICKEL SIZE HAIL.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED.

IMPACT...EXPECT DAMAGE TO ROOFS...SIDING...AND TREES.

[james1976]

Ive only had bout 3 tenths all week so far. Was expecting much more. Nice to have 80s for temps though.

[Geos]

Had a garden variety t-storm here. Cooled it off nicely outside.

[OKwx2k4]

Still lots and lots of rain expected down this way in the coming week. My worries about a drought will be put aside for the summer I guess. The air is so humid you'd think you could cut it though. Lol

[Hawkeye]

The first solid storm in weeks moved through early this morning, dropping 0.85" of needed rain.  The first severe warning of the season was issued due to a  60 mph wind report on the south side of CR, but I don't think we went above 45 mph.

[Tom]

We received some beneficial heavy rains last night.  Numerous training storms with some decent lighting and small hail down towards the southern burbs.  A general 1-3"+ has fallen.

 

@OKwx, here comes more cooling for you Week 2...

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/814temp.new.gif

 

 

 

GFS/EURO advertising a pretty decent cool shot for the following weekend. CFSv2 still showing a very cool month of June for the southern Plains/TX/OK region.  Lot's of rain I assume.

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/monthly/images/CFSv2.NaT2m.20160526.201606.gif

[Tom]

Both the JMA/GEFS are seeing a major trough near the Lakes/Midwest Week 2...

[OKwx2k4]

That's very nice! I'll take another month of spring weather before the heat gets here.

[Geos]

Both the JMA/GEFS are seeing a major trough near the Lakes/Midwest Week 2...

 

Good - this is too early to have this kind of air mass hang around for weeks on end.

 

Allergies are so bad that I can't even wear my contacts. Mold spores must be high.

[Niko]

KRMY has hit 84*F twice inter-hourly. Wow, did this pattern flip hard from flakes to mid-summer conditions inside of 10 days. Now the hope is for a balanced warm season, not the drought stuff Tom posted about India or what we saw in '88 or back in 1936 around the US.

Not sure why, but found it funny. Good stuff!

[Tom]

It'll be interesting if this holds true.  I've been ready more about Karren's Pacific Extreme Pattern and it would make sense given this year's LRC pattern and the way the cold/warm pocket of waters in the N PAC have matured since January.  This year it seems we have seen warm and cold spells that hit and hold for longer periods.  We'll just have to see how it all plays out.

 

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/2016/05/25/cutting-edge-research-suggests-below-normal-risk-of-hot-days-through-mid-july/

 

Blazing heat begins to explode in the west Day 5-10 which will cause the downstream trough to build in our region and cool our weather as we open into June.

 

Actually, the CFSv2 is seeing a very cool pattern in the Plains Day 5-20.  Starts shifting farther east after Day 7 into the Lakes/Midwest.

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/monthly/images/summaryCFSv2.NaT2m.201606.gif

 

 

 

Here is the latest 700mb run from the CFSv2..you can clearly see where the ridge/trough pattern sets up over the lower 48.  There is a clear N PAC SST connection.

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/monthly/images/CFSv2.z700.20160527.201606.gif

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/ocean/cdas-sflux_ssta_global_1.png

 

I wonder how all this plays out as we see summer take over as the jet stream weakens considerably.  Alongside, a developing La Nina.  Will this summer torch like most models have been forecasting???   It's going to be interesting to see how all these elements play out.

[Tom]

Of note also, there has been more consistent blocking since April.  The AO has been primarily negative since April 1st, except the NAO, but recently, the NAO has been trending negative.

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/nao.sprd2.gif

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/ao.sprd2.gif

[Geos]

it would nice to get another stretch of stable air into the region. This pattern sucks for getting anything down outside with rain almost everyday.

 

Cooler today, with a high of 76.

[Money]

Tornado in the city of Brandon today. Sounds like it was on the ground for 3-5 minutes with significant damage. No warning was issued happened about 15 miles west of where I live

[Tom]

Heading up to Wisco tonight and staying at my friends lake house by Castle Rock Lake.  Hope we get enough sunshine in between pop up storms Sat/Sun.  Monday looks like the best day for the lake.  Have a great weekend everyone!

[Hawkeye]

I got a solid 0.65" soaking overnight.  The 1.75" that has fallen this week is very welcome.

[Geos]

Tornado in the city of Brandon today. Sounds like it was on the ground for 3-5 minutes with significant damage. No warning was issued happened about 15 miles west of where I live

 

Didn't even realize there was severe weather in the area yesterday. Just had a bunch of downpours here with only a little thunder.

 

Definitely did some damage.

http://www.weather.gov/mkx/052716-brandon

[Hawkeye]

Got a decent cell last hour, although far from severe.  It produced some heavy rain(0.31") and a bit of wind.  That puts me over two inches for the week.

[Geos]

Severe line bearing down on the Chicago metro. Wind gust to 61 mph in De Kalb already.

[westMJim]

Here in Grand Rapids we now have had a string of 8 nice and warm summer like days. With 6 days now in in a row in the mid to upper 80’s.  This is the longest string of May days in the 80’s since 2010 when Grand Rapids had 9 days in a row in the 80’s with of those days at 90°  

[Geos]

Today fell just short of 80°, 79°. Tomorrow looks like lower 70s with an east wind. So glad the atmosphere dried out today and no rain. Been a wet month with over 4" of rain so far.

[Tom]

I had a very relaxing time up near Castle Rock Lake, WI this past weekend.  Albeit a bit humid/wet and those ferocious mosquito's that seem to attack you from all directions!  There is something about the nature up there along with the lakes, landscape, camp fires that make it very enjoyable.  Our members with summer homes and who live up there know what I'm talking about.

 

Back to reality, back to the humidity and a chance of storms today/tomorrow.  Looking forward to the cooling/drier weather over the next couple weeks.  I'm sure Geo's is excited about it!

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/610temp.new.gif

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/610prcp.new.gif

 

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/814temp.new.gif

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/814prcp.new.gif

 

 

 

We don't have a June Thread yet, so I'll post this here and start one later today.  CFSv2 still advertising a very widespread cooler pattern next month.  That is a lot of blue showing up.

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/monthly/images/summaryCFSv2.NaT2m.201606.gif

 

 

 

 

[Tom]

Lake Michigan starting to warm up quite nicely over the last week with the warmer days/nights...

 

http://www.glerl.noaa.gov/res/glcfs/ncast/mswt-00.gif

[jaster220]

Lake Michigan starting to warm up quite nicely over the last week with the warmer days/nights...

 

http://www.glerl.noaa.gov/res/glcfs/ncast/mswt-00.gif

 

It really helped that ice was limited this spring. Too bad, just as we get the warm-up going, a set-back looms. Have not swam comfortably in Lk. Michigan since 2012 (sighs)