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May 2016 Observation and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest


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Hello everyone, I hope you all enjoyed April! I'll go ahead and start the next thread.. I just put together some quick stats from Klamath Falls and April turned out to be very good. Mean was a bit behind record but the average high made second!

 

April 2016 in Klamath Falls, OR

 

Avg High: 63.5
Avg Low: 32.7
Mean: 48.1

 

Ties 2nd warmest average high of 63.5 in April 1951. 1987 holds the record at 66.4 degrees.
Just below 5th highest Mean of 48.2 in April 1989. 1990 holds the record Mean of 49.7 degrees.

 

Also noteworthy are the number of days thunderstorms occurred in Klamath Falls.

 

04/03, 04/09, 04/10, 04/11, 04/12

 

Some days I ALMOST had a t'storm (active storms within 15-25 miles of downtown)

 

04/08, 04/20, 04/22, 04/27

 

April averages 0.7 thunderstorm days at KLMT (1980-2015 average). Some years storms don't occur in April, sometimes 1 here and there. 5 T'storms occurred, and almost had 4 more. That potentially could have been 9 this month. In the entire 1980's only 4 t'storm days occurred at KLMT, and none from 1980-1985.

 

April 3rd was a nocturnal thunderstorm. These are uncommon east of the cascades earlier than July and later than September. My earliest before this one was 06/09/2015, and previous earliest was 08/07/2013. Latest being 09/17/2013. None in 2014, which should give an idea of how rare night time and early morning storms are in Klamath Falls.

Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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Very nice morning.

 

Hoping for a mix of warm days, cool showers, a hot spell or two and maybe some warm core thunderstorms this month. 

 

Totally forgot to mention the nature of my t'storms last month. Quite a few were warm core and I am just now exiting cold core season. ;)

 

The last time I recall an April warm core event was 04/23/2012. I actually didn't have a storm that day but there were cells in almost every direction around me. Big ones in Lake County and over the cascades. The high was about 80.

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Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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And the 12Z ECMWF is still the most troughy for later next weekend and beyond.

 

12z Euro isn't very troughy. Pretty warm and ridgy run overall.

 

If that is too troughy for you then you have way too high of standards for May. Or maybe too low in our new climate. Lol!

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12z Euro isn't very troughy. Pretty warm and ridgy run overall.

 

If that is too troughy for you then you have way too high of standards for May. Or maybe too low in our new climate. Lol!

Did not say 'too' troughy... said 'most' troughy.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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12Z ECMWF ensembles are much less troughy for next weekend than the operational run.

 

Looks like convection possible Tuesday - Thursday.

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No sign of that trough next weekend on the 00Z GFS.

 

In fact... it shows some warm 850mb temps between 18-21C.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Wow.. Just had a great time taking a 2+ hour walk around town from 7pm to a bit past 9pm. Extremely slow cooling this evening. The entire time I was out it literally felt like the same temperature, now beginning to decline now that I'm inside. 

 

For MAY FIRST I rate today 20 out of 10. Tonight acted like a late June or early July evening. (just without the 90+ degree heat).

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Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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HRRR shows convection over Portland this evening...

 

http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/HRRR/for_web/hrrr_ncep_jet/2016050213/t1/1ref_t1sfc_f15.png

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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00Z ECMWF was still more troughy for this weekend... and the 12Z GFS has trended that way as well.   The 12Z Canadian hangs onto ridging though.

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Here comes the IO/MT forcing that Phil has been referencing

 

http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/ventrice/real_time/twc_globe_mjo_vp200.png

Question is, are we seeing the beginning(s) of a true shift in the background forcing? Or is this an MJO/propagatory wave? Hard to tell, but I suspect convection will be reluctant to leave the IO, (aka, the furnace). As of now, the depicted eastward VP200 propagation looks a bit slow for a classic MJO wave to me, though it's borderline and could go either way verbatim.

 

Either way, it'll constructively interfere with/enhance the developing Niña as long as it doesn't poropagate into the Pacific, and even if it does, one trade wind/-AAM surge might be enough to get the dominoes rolling, if they aren't already. ;)

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If this is a legitimate transition in the background forcing, and we avoid any significant EPAC/W-HEM component, it would be a relatively early transition, relative to years like 1998/2005, which maintained a W-HEM forcing component into the summer, and would better emulate years like 1983, 1988, and even 2010 to an extent.

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I assume this is sarcasm? Lol.

 

 

Not at all... alto-cumulus making an appearance.

 

There is clearly diffluence aloft now.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Surprised at how fast we're losing the +QBO/W-anoms through 50mb, not to mention the manner in which it's occurring. We might transition into the -QBO faster than I originally thought.

 

There's an E-anom belt sandwiched between W-anoms, above which easterlies are descending. A very weird way to lose a +QBO, if this were to continue.

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Not at all... alto-cumulus making an appearance.

 

There is clearly diffluence aloft now.

That looks like a stable and/or capped lower boundary layer to me. Altocumulus doesn't necessarily imply boundary layer instability. By that measure, every cloud in the sky indicates instability of some sort. :)

 

I'd associate uncapped instability with cumulus congestus.

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That looks like a stable and/or capped lower boundary layer to me.

 

Altocumulus doesn't necessarily imply boundary layer instability. By that measure, every cloud in the sky indicates instability of some sort. :)

 

 

Something is going to pop this afternoon... these are clouds are a sign of diffluent flow.   I can tell that from the satellite loop and the models.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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If this is a legitimate transition in the background forcing, and we avoid any significant EPAC/W-HEM component, it would be a relatively early transition, relative to years like 1998/2005, which maintained a W-HEM forcing component into the summer, and would better emulate years like 1983, 1988, and even 2010 to an extent.

What kind of changes would we expect going forward if the background forcing were indeed finally shifting?

 

Definitely like the sounds of 1983, 1988 and 2010.

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Something is going to pop this afternoon... these are clouds are a sign of diffluent flow. I can tell that from the satellite loop and the models.

That's fine. I'm just saying altocumulus doesn't imply the eroding of that boundary layer cap, assuming your surface profile is unstable to begin with.

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What kind of changes would we expect going forward if the background forcing were indeed finally shifting?

 

Definitely like the sounds of 1983, 1988 and 2010.

We'd develop the Niña/SSTAs more quickly/efficiently, will move into a background -AAM/-PNA regime more quickly, and will probably wind up with a stronger Niña overall.

 

We're also losing the +QBO faster than I initially thought, so far at least. If this continues, the tropical convective aggregate will be focused equatorward relative to the mean, which can boost the intraseasonal/propagatory forcing component in some circumstances, both enhancing and destructively interfering with the background state over time.

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We'd develop the Niña/SSTAs more quickly/efficiently, will move into a background -AAM/-PNA regime more quickly, and will probably wind up with a stronger Niña overall.

 

We're also losing the +QBO faster than I initially thought, so far at least. If this continues, the tropical convective aggregate will be focused equatorward relative to the mean, which can boost the intraseasonal/propagatory forcing component in some circumstances, both enhancing and destructively interfering with the background state over time.

 

 

May 3, 2010

 

http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/2010/anomnight.5.3.2010.gif

 

 

Today...

 

http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/2016/anomnight.5.2.2016.gif

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Niña looks better developed in the second one (i.e. now).

 

 

This spring has been the complete opposite of 2010 so far.   

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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