May 2016 Observation and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[MossMan]

Heavy downpours this morning... woke up to rain pounding on the roof and again right now.  

 

Love heavy rain in the summer.   Just not the 2 weeks of clouds that came with it.  

Dry morning up here, even had sunshine on the drive to work.

[VancouverIslandSouth]

Heavy downpours this morning... woke up to rain pounding on the roof and again right now.  

 

Love heavy rain in the summer.   Just not the 2 weeks of clouds that came with it.  

 

Nothing in Victoria yet, but there is finally hope in sight. Radar returns are showing up to the west/northwest of the city and the forecast rain tonight into tomorrow has increased with ever model run. This region seems to do much better when the low placement is slightly offshore and the low further west has been injecting moisture into the setup.

 

We sure need this heading into the heatwave next week, there's been very little rain here in the past 2 months and soil conditions are looking more like a typical July than late May.

[TT-SEA]

Dry morning up here, even had sunshine on the drive to work.

 

 

I am in Everett for a meeting this morning... drove through crazy heavy rain from home to Bellevue and then turned north onto 405 into sunshine.

[Phil]

Something about this upcoming period is giving the GFS headaches. Last three runs (including the current 12z cycle) all look very different across the hemisphere.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Warm bias Mark

[Bryant]

Something about this upcoming period is giving the GFS headaches. Last three runs (including the current 12z cycle) all look very different across the hemisphere.

GFS going all in on WHem forcing, where as other models keep it pretty weak. Keep in mind this is all RMM data, but still gives a general gist of what the model is thinking

[BLI snowman]

The new 12z GEM and GFS have decided to join the ECMWF in bringing HOT weather to the PNW! Summer has come in with a bang! Both the GEM and GFS show mid to upper 90s next Sunday. http://maps3.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ggem/2016052712/228/sfct.us_nw.png

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2016052712/228/sfct.us_nw.png

 

Then the next day temperatures explode into the 100s for PDX!

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2016052712/252/sfct.us_nw.png

 

Then Seattle gets into the 100s the following day!

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2016052712/276/sfct.us_nw.png

 

Looks legit. 

 

Seattle did hit 100 in June 1955. Cold July followed. 

[Timmy Supercell]

Yesterday I had a low 32 (my 2nd

 

This morning only 36 for a low at KLMT. Even with clear mornings it has been difficult to maintain a normal number of freezing lows.

[Phil]

GFS going all in on WHem forcing, where as other models keep it pretty weak. Keep in mind this is all RMM data, but still gives a general gist of what the model is thinking

True, but even the GFS fires up the IO/MT (E-Hem) and propagates subsidence over the Pacific during the middle of June, which would lead to an AAM/PNA drop. Classic La Niña right there.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=global&pkg=chi200&runtime=2016052712&fh=120&xpos=0&ypos=0

[James Jones]

For the Philadelphia area, there looks to have been some cold temp extremes in February and severe weather throughout the summer. Late summer into autumn saw a few tropical storms run up the coast.

How's the heat and humidity feeling to you? 

[Phil]

How's the heat and humidity feeling to you?

We haven't had much of that yet, but he'll be miserable soon enough.

[Phil]

Euro weeklies have a 1930s style heat ridge setting up over the central US from mid/late June into July. Looks like a -PNA/+EPO pattern with plentiful onshore flow in the PNW. Decently suggestive signal at this stage.

[TT-SEA]

Euro weeklies have a 1930s style heat ridge setting up over the central US from mid/late June into July. Looks like a -PNA/+EPO pattern with plentiful onshore flow in the PNW. Decently suggestive signal at this stage.

 

Yeah... and following Joe Bastardi's twitter the ECMWF also showed an "arctic blast" for the same region for next week a few days ago.   That won't be happening.

 

1930s huh?   A little dramatic?  

[Phil]

Yeah... and following Joe Bastardi's twitter the ECMWF also showed an "arctic blast" for the same region for next week a few days ago. That won't be happening.

 

1930s huh? A little dramatic?

A single 12z GFS run last Tuesday had a Great Plains cold shot during the first few days of June, which has since disappeared. How is that relevant to what the weeklies are depicting in late June?

 

Also, I'm just reporting what they're showing. I never suggested I was forecasting dust bowl 2.0.

[TT-SEA]

A single 12z GFS run last Tuesday had a Great Plains cold shot during the first few days of June, which has since disappeared. How is that relevant to what the weeklies are depicting in late June?

 

Also, I'm just reporting what they're showing. I never suggested I was forecasting dust bowl 2.0.

 

Going to take a couple days for that to develop since its very wet there now    

[Phil]

Going to take a couple days for that to develop since its very wet there now

Preaching to the choir on that one.

 

In other news, the GFS has just been floundering atrociously over the last 20-25 days, both in its verification scores and at-range forecasts. Even the JMA has had a higher verification score since 5/17. Embarrassing, to say the least.

[Tyler Mode]

21 Hours at Mount Rainier:

 

All,

 

I wanted to highlight the fact that even though you may only have a short time somewhere, if you take advantage, you can really see a lot.

 

I was hoping for a dusting of snow (check) at the park, and was thinking I would never see the mountain. It did come out for about 30 seconds and I was able to snap a few photos.

 

However, seeing the bear, and the dance of the clouds along with the pouring snow and sun at the same time is what really made this trip unique. I've been going up multiple times a year since 1999, and they always end up special

 

http://www.naturespixpdx.com/Landscapes/21-Hours-at-Mount-Rainier

 

PS:  I was able to get the snow to dance into my business name...

 

 

[GHweatherChris]

 

 

 

21 Hours at Mount Rainier:

 

 

 

All,

 

 

 

I wanted to highlight the fact that even though you may only have a short time somewhere, if you take advantage, you can really see a lot.

 

 

 

I was hoping for a dusting of snow (check) at the park, and was thinking I would never see the mountain. It did come out for about 30 seconds and I was able to snap a few photos.

 

 

 

However, seeing the bear, and the dance of the clouds along with the pouring snow and sun at the same time is what really made this trip unique. I've been going up multiple times a year since 1999, and they always end up special

 

 

 

http://www.naturespixpdx.com/Landscapes/21-Hours-at-Mount-Rainier

 

PS: I was able to get the snow to dance into my business name...

 

Awesome pics dude!!

[TT-SEA]

Well... the Portland area and south has transitioned out of the wet and cool weather.   Up here we have to wait 2 more day as the ECMWF shows plenty of moisture through late tomorrow.     

 

This will be the 8th cloudy day in a row here.    Can't wait for Monday.  

 

The 00Z GFS went crazy with zonal flow by next weekend.   The 00Z ECMWF showed much less energy in the NE Pacific compared to even its 12Z run for next weekend.   I suspect the GFS is being way too aggressive.   It has been performing surprisingly bad lately.

[Tyler Mode]

Well... the Portland area and south has transitioned out of the wet and cool weather.   Up here we have to wait 2 more day as the ECMWF shows plenty of moisture through late tomorrow.     

 

This will be the 8th cloudy day in a row here.    Can't wait for Monday.  

 

The 00Z GFS went crazy with zonal flow by next weekend.   The 00Z ECMWF showed much less energy in the NE Pacific compared to even its 12Z run for next weekend.   I suspect the GFS is being way too aggressive.   It has been performing surprisingly bad lately.

The sun is out here, not bad at all!

[jcmcgaffey]

It's been very windy and rainy so far this morning in Seattle. Feels like a winter storm. Plan on checking out folklife with the family hopefully the rain calms down a bit.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Got all the way down to 35 here this morning.

[VancouverIslandSouth]

Got all the way down to 35 here this morning.

 

That's pretty cold for it being almost the start of June, did you get any frost? Up here it didn't drop much below 50F with the rain. Sure is nice to see the rain again.

[ShawniganLake]

That's pretty cold for it being almost the start of June, did you get any frost? Up here it didn't drop much below 50F with the rain. Sure is nice to see the rain again.

Been mostly light showers here this morning.  Just 0.15" so far.  The rest of the day looks showery, with the heavier rain focussed to the north and the lower mainland. 

[seattleweatherguy]

Guess the heat is now midweek...

[VancouverIslandSouth]

Been mostly light showers here this morning.  Just 0.15" so far.  The rest of the day looks showery, with the heavier rain focussed to the north and the lower mainland. 

 

It's strange your area didn't pick up more than that; it looks like there was around 5~7mm (0.2~0.27") in most stations around here from a pretty steady band of rain last night. It's much more scattered now, but this system did draw in some subtropical moisture so maybe we'll get some heavier stuff this afternoon as it's drawn ashore.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

That's pretty cold for it being almost the start of June, did you get any frost? Up here it didn't drop much below 50F with the rain. Sure is nice to see the rain again.

 

There was some light frost on the deck. I live in the foothills so my location is quite a bit cooler than the valley. My average last frost is May 20th. On May 18, 2012 I had a low of 28. So this was a chilly morning, but not incredibly unusual. 

[MossMan]

Must be a holiday weekend...currently pouring and 49 degrees! Yay!!

[Tyler Mode]

Must be a holiday weekend...currently pouring and 49 degrees! Yay!!

Partly sunny here.  66.

[TT-SEA]

Partly sunny here. 66.

Tomorrow looks the same up here. We just get Monday.

[Phil]

Well... the Portland area and south has transitioned out of the wet and cool weather. Up here we have to wait 2 more day as the ECMWF shows plenty of moisture through late tomorrow.

 

This will be the 8th cloudy day in a row here. Can't wait for Monday.

 

The 00Z GFS went crazy with zonal flow by next weekend. The 00Z ECMWF showed much less energy in the NE Pacific compared to even its 12Z run for next weekend. I suspect the GFS is being way too aggressive. It has been performing surprisingly bad lately.

Eventually the jet should undercut the ridge. Even the ECMWF/EPS suggest this, as does forcing progression. Timing it is going to be more difficult, though. I'm still thinking mid/late June.

[Phil]

Note the ridge over the NWPAC on the long range EPS mean. That's a classic precursor to western troughing (SW Aleutian ridge) following a jet extension, under climatological June wavelengths:

 

[Phil]

As far as analogs go, years 1983, 1973, 1993, 1999, 2007, and 1989 have shown up most frequently on the CPC superensemble list. Surprised to see 1993 in there, considering it was fairly Niño-ish overall.

[TT-SEA]

As far as analogs go, years 1983, 1973, 1993, 1999, 2007, and 1989 have shown up most frequently on the CPC superensemble list. Surprised to see 1993 in there, considering it was fairly Niño-ish overall.

 

 

I also see  1970, 1986, 2003, 2004, 2005, and 2006 on most of the runs in the last day or so.

[Phil]

Meanwhile, years like 2010, 1998, 1964, and 1959 have seldom held any predictive value or resemblance as analogs, so far at least. I haven't seen 2010 once, and 1998 maybe once or twice, FWIW,

[Deweydog]

Seems like 2016 has shown up on every run for the last five months or so. Thoughts?

[Phil]

I see 1970, 1986, 2003, 2004, 2005, and 2006 on most of the runs in the last day or so.

Eh, maybe on a few D+11 progs, without translation into D+8. Predictive value through translation has been limited to years like 1973 (#1), 1993 (#2), 1983 (#3), 1999 (#4) 1989 (#5) and 2007 (#6).

 

I suspect 1993 will start falling off the table as we transition into more of a Niña background, still weird to see. I guess it is a good PDO/AMO analog, for those who care about that stuff.

[Phil]

Seems like 2016 has shown up on every run for the last five months or so. Thoughts?

Bad analog!!

[Jesse]

Seems like 2016 has shown up on every run for the last five months or so. Thoughts?

I don't know. I was reading something on a couple blogs about a pretty impressive troughy period the tail end of May that year.

 

This year, on the other hand, we only saw a drop to close to average temps for a week or so in a very warm month overall.

 

This is nothing like 2016.

[TT-SEA]

I don't know. I was reading something on a couple blogs about a pretty impressive troughy period the tail end of May that year.

 

This year, on the other hand, we only saw a drop to close to average temps for a week or so in a very warm month overall.

 

This is nothing like 2016.

 

It was a significant period of troughing.   

 

Regardless of that fact that it only got us down to normal.  

 

Its been very wet and cloudy up here for 2 straight weeks now.    Looking forward to seeing sun for more than 5 minutes.