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Summer 2016 Monthly Anomaly Forecast Contest

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#1
Jesse

Posted 24 May 2016 - 12:22 PM

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Time to get everyone's input on what has become quite the hot ( but probably just ends up close to average) debate.

 

Departure from normal ( °F with sig figs to the tenths place ) for the following stations:

 

PDX

SEA

EUG

OLM

DCA

 

For the following months:

 

June

July

August

September

 

To be included in the final ranking, you must provide a guess for each station, for each month.

 

Interested to see what everybody thinks!

 

Deadline for entries is May 31st at 11:59pm


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#2
Phil

Posted 24 May 2016 - 12:47 PM

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This'll be a fun one.
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Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Cold season 2017/18:
Snowfall: 0"
Largest snowfall: 0"
Number of winter events: 0
Coldest High 67*F
Coldest low: 44*F
Highest sustained wind: 17mph
Highest wind gust: 26mph

#3
TT-SEA

Posted 24 May 2016 - 06:26 PM

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I need Phil to make his forecast first.  :)



#4
Phil

Posted 24 May 2016 - 06:46 PM

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I need Phil to make his forecast first. :)


If you're worried about DCA, just forecast a blowtorch and you'll be in the ballpark. :lol:

I'll have my forecast up sometime before the end of the week.
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Cold season 2017/18:
Snowfall: 0"
Largest snowfall: 0"
Number of winter events: 0
Coldest High 67*F
Coldest low: 44*F
Highest sustained wind: 17mph
Highest wind gust: 26mph

#5
Front Ranger

Posted 24 May 2016 - 07:35 PM

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PDX

June: +2.1

July: +.8

Aug: -1.0

Sep: +.4

 

SEA

June: +2.4

July: +1.2

Aug: -.4

Sep: +.2

 

EUG

June: +1.3

July: +.2

Aug: -1.3

Sep: 0.0

 

OLM

June: +1.5

July: +.3

Aug: -1.2

Sep: -.7

 

DCA

June: +.4

July: +1.4

Aug: +3.3

Sep: +2.8


Cool anomalies soothe the soul.


#6
TT-SEA

Posted 24 May 2016 - 07:45 PM

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If you're worried about DCA, just forecast a blowtorch and you'll be in the ballpark. :lol:

I'll have my forecast up sometime before the end of the week.

 

No... I want to see what your actual predictions are for the PNW.


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#7
Phil

Posted 24 May 2016 - 07:59 PM

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Rough estimates, will narrow it down next update. Want to see how models handle forcing over the next week.

PDX

June: +3.5
July: 0.0
August: -2.0
September +0.5

SEA

June: +4.5
July: +1.0
August: -1.5
September: 0.0

EUG

June: +3.0
July -0.5
August: -1.5
September: +0.0

OLM

June: +4.0
July: -0.5
August: -1.5
September -0.5

DCA

June +1.0
July +4.5
August +5.0
September +5.0
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Cold season 2017/18:
Snowfall: 0"
Largest snowfall: 0"
Number of winter events: 0
Coldest High 67*F
Coldest low: 44*F
Highest sustained wind: 17mph
Highest wind gust: 26mph

#8
James Jones

Posted 24 May 2016 - 08:35 PM

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PDX:

 

June: + 2.0

July: + 1.4

August: + 1.0

September: 0.0

October: + 7.0 (kidding!!!!)

 

SEA:

 

June: + 2.2

July: + 1.6

August: + 1.1

September: 0.0

 

EUG:

 

June: + 1.8

July: + 1.4

August: + 1.2

September: + 0.5

 

OLM:

 

June: + 1.8

July: + 1.1

August: + 0.5

September: - 1.0

 

DCA:

 

June: + 1.0

July: + 1.8

August: + 2.5

September: + 2.0



#9
TT-SEA

Posted 24 May 2016 - 09:42 PM

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PDX

June: +2.8
July: +2.5
August: -1.6
September +0.5

SEA 

June: +2.9
July: +2.6
August: -1.2
September: +0.4

EUG 

June: +2.2
July +2.4
August: -1.4
September: +0.3

OLM

June: +2.0
July: +1.9
August: -1.8
September 0.0

 

 

DCA

 

June: +1.5
July: +4.2
August: +4.9
September +3.8



#10
Phil

Posted 24 May 2016 - 09:46 PM

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No love for DCA? Show a little backbone.
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Cold season 2017/18:
Snowfall: 0"
Largest snowfall: 0"
Number of winter events: 0
Coldest High 67*F
Coldest low: 44*F
Highest sustained wind: 17mph
Highest wind gust: 26mph

#11
TT-SEA

Posted 24 May 2016 - 10:10 PM

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No love for DCA? Show a little backbone.

 

 

Hot!  


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#12
Phil

Posted 24 May 2016 - 10:14 PM

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Hot!


Lol, don't be a wuss.

Plus your score won't count if you don't. Time to step out of your comfort zone. ;)
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Cold season 2017/18:
Snowfall: 0"
Largest snowfall: 0"
Number of winter events: 0
Coldest High 67*F
Coldest low: 44*F
Highest sustained wind: 17mph
Highest wind gust: 26mph

#13
Front Ranger

Posted 24 May 2016 - 10:15 PM

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Lol, don't be a wuss.

Plus your score won't count if you don't. Time to step out of your comfort zone. ;)


The West. Name of forum.

Cool anomalies soothe the soul.


#14
TT-SEA

Posted 24 May 2016 - 10:15 PM

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Lol, don't be a wuss.

Plus your score won't count if you don't. Time to step out of your comfort zone. ;)

 

 

Oh crap... I did not notice it was a requirement for DCA to be included.   I thought that was just you throwing it in there.   

 

I will update my previous post.


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#15
Phil

Posted 24 May 2016 - 10:30 PM

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The West. Name of forum.


The goal is to avoid the mathematical conundrum we ran into last time.

Grow a pair.
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Cold season 2017/18:
Snowfall: 0"
Largest snowfall: 0"
Number of winter events: 0
Coldest High 67*F
Coldest low: 44*F
Highest sustained wind: 17mph
Highest wind gust: 26mph

#16
TT-SEA

Posted 24 May 2016 - 10:33 PM

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The goal is to avoid the mathematical conundrum we ran into last time.

Grow a pair.

 

Absolutely agree with this... we have to play the same game regardless of rules.


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#17
Deweydog

Posted 24 May 2016 - 10:34 PM

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PDX

2.2
1.7
.7
.8

SEA

2.5
1.5
.5
.9

EUG

2.6
1.2
-.1
.7

OLM

2.1
1
0
.4

DCA

2.5
4.5
7
2

***subject to change pending tomorrow's NAM runs***

All roads lead to Walgreens.  


#18
TT-SEA

Posted 24 May 2016 - 10:38 PM

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For reference... this was the summer of 2015 at SEA:

 

June: +6.8

July +5.5

August +2.6

September -0.8

 

 

Must have been a developing Nina with an early peak to summer.  Nina forcing clearly took hold as the summer progressed.    ;)



#19
Front Ranger

Posted 24 May 2016 - 10:55 PM

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Absolutely agree with this... we have to play the same game regardless of rules.


DCA is thousands of miles from the other stations. Jesse put it in as a joke, I m treating it as such. Doesn't make sense otherwise.

Cool anomalies soothe the soul.


#20
Phil

Posted 24 May 2016 - 11:01 PM

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DCA is thousands of miles from the other stations. Jesse put it in as a joke, I m treating it as such. Doesn't make sense otherwise.


It's not a joke, I implied it should be included in a comment a few days ago.

There's one east-coaster here forecasting in territory unfamiliar to said poster. This levels the playing field somewhat. :)
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Cold season 2017/18:
Snowfall: 0"
Largest snowfall: 0"
Number of winter events: 0
Coldest High 67*F
Coldest low: 44*F
Highest sustained wind: 17mph
Highest wind gust: 26mph

#21
TT-SEA

Posted 24 May 2016 - 11:03 PM

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Not a joke, I implied it should be included a few days ago.

There's one east-coaster here forecasting in territory unfamiliar to said poster. This the playing field somewhat.

 

 

But we could all just copy your forecast for DCA and nullify it as an difference maker.  



#22
Phil

Posted 24 May 2016 - 11:04 PM

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But we could all just copy your forecast for DCA and nullify it as an difference maker.


True, but I suspect you're better than that.
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Cold season 2017/18:
Snowfall: 0"
Largest snowfall: 0"
Number of winter events: 0
Coldest High 67*F
Coldest low: 44*F
Highest sustained wind: 17mph
Highest wind gust: 26mph

#23
BLI snowman

Posted 25 May 2016 - 12:11 AM

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PDX

 

June: +2.3

July: +1.7

August: -0.1

September: +1.3

 

SEA

 

June: +2.8

July: +1.5

August: +0.2

September: +1.8

 

EUG:

 

June: +1.9

July: +1.1

August: -0.4

September: +1.0

 

OLM:

 

June: +2.2

July: +1.4

August: -0.1

September: +0.9

 

A tremendously cool summer incoming, by virtue of the fact that there will be no record warm months. August is going to localized cool anomaly party like it's 1995. 

 

DCA will see +14, +13, +69, and +googol, respectively. 



#24
Jesse

Posted 26 May 2016 - 09:52 PM

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DCA is thousands of miles from the other stations. Jesse put it in as a joke, I m treating it as such. Doesn't make sense otherwise.

 

It actually wasn't meant to be a joke. More like a sort of tiebreaker.


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#25
TT-SEA

Posted 26 May 2016 - 11:24 PM

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I think Phil is going too warm for June.    And he will adjust downward before the contest starts.



#26
Phil

Posted 26 May 2016 - 11:26 PM

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I think Phil is going too warm for June. And he will adjust downward before the contest starts.


Yeah, he probably will.
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Cold season 2017/18:
Snowfall: 0"
Largest snowfall: 0"
Number of winter events: 0
Coldest High 67*F
Coldest low: 44*F
Highest sustained wind: 17mph
Highest wind gust: 26mph

#27
Phil

Posted 26 May 2016 - 11:43 PM

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I'm surprised at how quickly the Walker Cell is transitioning. We're about to leapfrog a bunch of analogs in that regard.

I'm definitely adjusting June downward, probably July too. Just not sure by how much yet.
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Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Cold season 2017/18:
Snowfall: 0"
Largest snowfall: 0"
Number of winter events: 0
Coldest High 67*F
Coldest low: 44*F
Highest sustained wind: 17mph
Highest wind gust: 26mph

#28
Jesse

Posted 27 May 2016 - 05:08 AM

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I'm surprised at how quickly the Walker Cell is transitioning. We're about to leapfrog a bunch of analogs in that regard.

I'm definitely adjusting June downward, probably July too. Just not sure by how much yet.


Interesting that you say this, since the models are trending warmer than ever for the first week of the month.

#29
TT-SEA

Posted 27 May 2016 - 05:28 AM

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Interesting that you say this, since the models are trending warmer than ever for the first week of the month.

 

 

Yeah... but maybe a big crash earlier in the month.

 

I am not sure how big of a crash though.   Its hard to find years in our history that were very warm all spring and then had big heat in the first part of June and then just turned colder and wetter than normal.



#30
Jesse

Posted 27 May 2016 - 06:37 AM

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Yeah... but maybe a big crash earlier in the month.

I am not sure how big of a crash though. Its hard to find years in our history that were very warm all spring and then had big heat in the first part of June and then just turned colder and wetter than normal.


Warm all spring? Has Troughzilla already been forgotten?? ;)

#31
TT-SEA

Posted 27 May 2016 - 06:52 AM

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Warm all spring? Has Troughzilla already been forgotten?? ;)


Most of spring.

#32
Phil

Posted 27 May 2016 - 08:20 AM

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Yeah... but maybe a big crash earlier in the month.

I am not sure how big of a crash though. Its hard to find years in our history that were very warm all spring and then had big heat in the first part of June and then just turned colder and wetter than normal.


That's why I was (and still am, somewhat) skeptical of sliding into the Niña/-AAM background before July. Hard to get it done before then, but it's happened before. You have to back to the 1930s, I believe (based on reconstructive analysis), which coincidently was the last time we saw a persistent +IO/+PDO under a developing Niña. Still, I don't like relying on old analogs like that.

That said, there's no denying this: http://www.tropicalt...xpos=0&ypos=471
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Cold season 2017/18:
Snowfall: 0"
Largest snowfall: 0"
Number of winter events: 0
Coldest High 67*F
Coldest low: 44*F
Highest sustained wind: 17mph
Highest wind gust: 26mph

#33
Phil

Posted 27 May 2016 - 09:08 AM

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Interesting that you say this, since the models are trending warmer than ever for the first week of the month.


My +4.5 June idea was based on the premise of a blowtorch through ~ June 20th, associated with the PNA/AAM spike. A faster/more aggressive return of IO/MT forcing in early/mid June would cut that blowtorch short by about a week.

I'm probably going to have to go with my gut on this one.
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Cold season 2017/18:
Snowfall: 0"
Largest snowfall: 0"
Number of winter events: 0
Coldest High 67*F
Coldest low: 44*F
Highest sustained wind: 17mph
Highest wind gust: 26mph

#34
Jesse

Posted 29 May 2016 - 11:25 AM

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PDX:

 

June: 2.1

 

July: 1.1

 

August: 0.2

 

September 0.1

 

SEA:

 

June: 2.4

 

July: 1.3

 

August: 0.5

 

September: -0.1

 

EUG: 

 

June 1.9

 

July: 0.8

 

August: 0.0

 

September: -0.3

 

OLM:

 

June: 1.8

 

July: 0.9

 

August: -0.1

 

September: -0.7

 

DCA:

 

June: 0.5

 

July: 2.9

 

August: 3.8

 

September: 4.1



#35
Jesse

Posted 29 May 2016 - 11:35 AM

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Just two more days to go! Let's get those predictions in/tweak existing ones.



#36
Phil

Posted 29 May 2016 - 11:39 AM

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Figures one of the most complicated pattern evolutions possible (from a predictive standpoint) will occur over the next 3-4 weeks. I'll probably wait until last minute..need all the data I can get.
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Cold season 2017/18:
Snowfall: 0"
Largest snowfall: 0"
Number of winter events: 0
Coldest High 67*F
Coldest low: 44*F
Highest sustained wind: 17mph
Highest wind gust: 26mph

#37
TT-SEA

Posted 29 May 2016 - 04:16 PM

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I like Jesse's forecast... very much what I am thinking as well.


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#38
ShawniganLake

Posted 30 May 2016 - 08:39 AM

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PDX

 

June: +2.8

July: +1.2

August: +1.5

September: +0.8

 

SEA

 

June: +2.9

July: +1.1

August: +1.6

September: +1.2

 

EUG:

 

June: +2.4

July: +1.0

August: +0.8

September: +0.8

 

OLM:

 

June: +2.1

July: +1.3

August: +1.1

September: +1.0

 

DCA:

 

June: 0.0

July: +1.5

Aug: +3.5

Sept: +3.5



#39
Eujunga

Posted 31 May 2016 - 06:16 PM

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Going with the AGW special.  Today only!  No negative departures!  Hurry while supplies last!

 

PDX:

 

Jun:  3.0

Jul:  2.6

Aug:  1.6

Sep:  1.4

 

SEA:

 

Jun:  3.0

Jul:  2.7

Aug:  1.7

Sep:  1.3

 

EUG:

 

Jun:  2.7

Jul:  2.5

Aug:  1.0

Sep:  1.1

 

OLM:

 

Jun:  1.7

Jul:  2.0

Aug:  1.2

Sep:  2.1

 

DCA:

 

Jun:  2.0

Jul:  1.9

Aug:  2.4

Sep:  1.9


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Tujunga, CA (15 miles N of Downtown L.A.) - Elev. 1,860 ft.

 

Eugene, OR (5 miles SSW) - Elev. 850 ft.


#40
Phil

Posted 31 May 2016 - 06:30 PM

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Update..might tweak these numbers a bit before the deadline.

Most uncertain month is July. If I miss my timing by as little as two weeks, it'll be potentially problematic for me.

PDX:

June: +2.2
July: -0.7
August: -1.5
September: -1.5

SEA

June: +2.6
July: -0.4
August: -1.1
September: -0.9

EUG

June: +2.2
July: -0.9
August: -1.9
September: -1.7

OLM

June: +1.8
July: -1.3
August: -1.9
September: -1.7

DCA

June: +2.8
July: +3.8
August: +4.3
September +4.7
  • Jesse likes this
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Cold season 2017/18:
Snowfall: 0"
Largest snowfall: 0"
Number of winter events: 0
Coldest High 67*F
Coldest low: 44*F
Highest sustained wind: 17mph
Highest wind gust: 26mph

#41
Jesse

Posted 31 May 2016 - 06:35 PM

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A couple ballsy calls to close things out!

#42
Front Ranger

Posted 31 May 2016 - 07:54 PM

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Tweaked. And added DCA.


Cool anomalies soothe the soul.


#43
TT-SEA

Posted 31 May 2016 - 10:08 PM

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PDX:

 

June: +2.6

 

July: +1.2

 

August: -.0.5

 

September +0.9

 

SEA:

 

June: +2.8

 

July: +1.4

 

August: -0.7

 

September: +0.9

 

EUG: 

 

June +2.2

 

July: +1.7

 

August: -0.4

 

September: +1.7

 

OLM:

 

June: +2.4

 

July: +0.9

 

August: -1.1

 

September: +0.2

 

DCA:

 

June: +0.7

 

July: +4.5

 

August: +4.8

 

September: +4.2



#44
Phil

Posted 31 May 2016 - 10:15 PM

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Tweaked June a bit, after seeing the GEFS/GEFSBC cave and the CMC ensembles trend towards the ECMWF/EPS.
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Cold season 2017/18:
Snowfall: 0"
Largest snowfall: 0"
Number of winter events: 0
Coldest High 67*F
Coldest low: 44*F
Highest sustained wind: 17mph
Highest wind gust: 26mph

#45
Bryant

Posted 31 May 2016 - 10:52 PM

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Sure, I'll give.



PDX:
June: +2.5
July: 0
August: -.8
September: -1

SEA:
June: +2.2
July: -0.5
August: -1.2
September: -1.2

EUG:
June: +2.3
July: -0.2
August: -1.0
September: -1.3

OLM:
June: +2.1
July: 0.1
August: -1.1
September: -1.4

DCA:
June: +1.0
July: +3.5
August: +3.9
September +4.3
  • Phil likes this

#46
Phil

Posted 01 June 2016 - 08:16 AM

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Looks like Justin didn't wanna play.
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Cold season 2017/18:
Snowfall: 0"
Largest snowfall: 0"
Number of winter events: 0
Coldest High 67*F
Coldest low: 44*F
Highest sustained wind: 17mph
Highest wind gust: 26mph

#47
Front Ranger

Posted 20 June 2016 - 02:16 PM

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About to enter the home stretch for June. Looking like a lot of us will be in the ballpark overall, though probably too warm for a couple stations and too cool for at least one.


Cool anomalies soothe the soul.


#48
Phil

Posted 20 June 2016 - 02:48 PM

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About to enter the home stretch for June. Looking like a lot of us will be in the ballpark overall, though probably too warm for a couple stations and too cool for at least one.


The last week of June is a big question mark. There'll be an MJO/propagatory wave traversing the Pacific, increasing WAFs under the antecedent anticyclone and leading to a period of western ridging (rise in the AAM/PNA).

How fast the wave degrades/orbits back into a the IO/MT (constructive interference w/ developing Niña) will determine how soon troughing returns in July, in my opinion,
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Cold season 2017/18:
Snowfall: 0"
Largest snowfall: 0"
Number of winter events: 0
Coldest High 67*F
Coldest low: 44*F
Highest sustained wind: 17mph
Highest wind gust: 26mph

#49
Front Ranger

Posted 21 June 2016 - 10:38 AM

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The last week of June is a big question mark. There'll be an MJO/propagatory wave traversing the Pacific, increasing WAFs under the antecedent anticyclone and leading to a period of western ridging (rise in the AAM/PNA).

How fast the wave degrades/orbits back into a the IO/MT (constructive interference w/ developing Niña) will determine how soon troughing returns in July, in my opinion,


I guess another question is how do you define western ridging? The 4 corners high has become well established in the past week, with plenty of heat throughout the Southwest...but not so for the PNW.

Cool anomalies soothe the soul.


#50
BLI snowman

Posted 21 June 2016 - 10:40 AM

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Looks like Justin didn't wanna play.

 

I posted a forecast on May 25  ;)