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Summer 2016 Monthly Anomaly Forecast Contest


Jesse

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Time to get everyone's input on what has become quite the hot ( but probably just ends up close to average) debate.

 

Departure from normal ( °F with sig figs to the tenths place ) for the following stations:

 

PDX

SEA

EUG

OLM

DCA

 

For the following months:

 

June

July

August

September

 

To be included in the final ranking, you must provide a guess for each station, for each month.

 

Interested to see what everybody thinks!

 

Deadline for entries is May 31st at 11:59pm

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I need Phil to make his forecast first. :)

If you're worried about DCA, just forecast a blowtorch and you'll be in the ballpark. :lol:

 

I'll have my forecast up sometime before the end of the week.

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If you're worried about DCA, just forecast a blowtorch and you'll be in the ballpark. :lol:

 

I'll have my forecast up sometime before the end of the week.

 

No... I want to see what your actual predictions are for the PNW.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Rough estimates, will narrow it down next update. Want to see how models handle forcing over the next week.

 

PDX

 

June: +3.5

July: 0.0

August: -2.0

September +0.5

 

SEA

 

June: +4.5

July: +1.0

August: -1.5

September: 0.0

 

EUG

 

June: +3.0

July -0.5

August: -1.5

September: +0.0

 

OLM

 

June: +4.0

July: -0.5

August: -1.5

September -0.5

 

DCA

 

June +1.0

July +4.5

August +5.0

September +5.0

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PDX:

 

June: + 2.0

July: + 1.4

August: + 1.0

September: 0.0

October: + 7.0 (kidding!!!!)

 

SEA:

 

June: + 2.2

July: + 1.6

August: + 1.1

September: 0.0

 

EUG:

 

June: + 1.8

July: + 1.4

August: + 1.2

September: + 0.5

 

OLM:

 

June: + 1.8

July: + 1.1

August: + 0.5

September: - 1.0

 

DCA:

 

June: + 1.0

July: + 1.8

August: + 2.5

September: + 2.0

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PDX

June: +2.8
July: +2.5
August: -1.6
September +0.5

SEA 

June: +2.9
July: +2.6
August: -1.2
September: +0.4

EUG 

June: +2.2
July +2.4
August: -1.4
September: +0.3

OLM

June: +2.0
July: +1.9
August: -1.8
September 0.0

 

 

DCA

 

June: +1.5
July: +4.2
August: +4.9
September +3.8

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Hot!

Lol, don't be a wuss.

 

Plus your score won't count if you don't. Time to step out of your comfort zone. ;)

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Lol, don't be a wuss.

 

Plus your score won't count if you don't. Time to step out of your comfort zone. ;)

 

 

Oh crap... I did not notice it was a requirement for DCA to be included.   I thought that was just you throwing it in there.   

 

I will update my previous post.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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The West. Name of forum.

The goal is to avoid the mathematical conundrum we ran into last time.

 

Grow a pair.

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The goal is to avoid the mathematical conundrum we ran into last time.

 

Grow a pair.

 

Absolutely agree with this... we have to play the same game regardless of rules.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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For reference... this was the summer of 2015 at SEA:

 

June: +6.8

July +5.5

August +2.6

September -0.8

 

 

Must have been a developing Nina with an early peak to summer.  Nina forcing clearly took hold as the summer progressed.    ;)

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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DCA is thousands of miles from the other stations. Jesse put it in as a joke, I m treating it as such. Doesn't make sense otherwise.

It's not a joke, I implied it should be included in a comment a few days ago.

 

There's one east-coaster here forecasting in territory unfamiliar to said poster. This levels the playing field somewhat. :)

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Not a joke, I implied it should be included a few days ago.

 

There's one east-coaster here forecasting in territory unfamiliar to said poster. This the playing field somewhat.

 

 

But we could all just copy your forecast for DCA and nullify it as an difference maker.  

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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But we could all just copy your forecast for DCA and nullify it as an difference maker.

True, but I suspect you're better than that.

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PDX

 

June: +2.3

July: +1.7

August: -0.1

September: +1.3

 

SEA

 

June: +2.8

July: +1.5

August: +0.2

September: +1.8

 

EUG:

 

June: +1.9

July: +1.1

August: -0.4

September: +1.0

 

OLM:

 

June: +2.2

July: +1.4

August: -0.1

September: +0.9

 

A tremendously cool summer incoming, by virtue of the fact that there will be no record warm months. August is going to localized cool anomaly party like it's 1995. 

 

DCA will see +14, +13, +69, and +googol, respectively. 

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DCA is thousands of miles from the other stations. Jesse put it in as a joke, I m treating it as such. Doesn't make sense otherwise.

 

It actually wasn't meant to be a joke. More like a sort of tiebreaker.

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I think Phil is going too warm for June. And he will adjust downward before the contest starts.

Yeah, he probably will.

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I'm surprised at how quickly the Walker Cell is transitioning. We're about to leapfrog a bunch of analogs in that regard.

 

I'm definitely adjusting June downward, probably July too. Just not sure by how much yet.

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I'm surprised at how quickly the Walker Cell is transitioning. We're about to leapfrog a bunch of analogs in that regard.

 

I'm definitely adjusting June downward, probably July too. Just not sure by how much yet.

Interesting that you say this, since the models are trending warmer than ever for the first week of the month.

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Interesting that you say this, since the models are trending warmer than ever for the first week of the month.

 

 

Yeah... but maybe a big crash earlier in the month.

 

I am not sure how big of a crash though.   Its hard to find years in our history that were very warm all spring and then had big heat in the first part of June and then just turned colder and wetter than normal.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Yeah... but maybe a big crash earlier in the month.

 

I am not sure how big of a crash though. Its hard to find years in our history that were very warm all spring and then had big heat in the first part of June and then just turned colder and wetter than normal.

Warm all spring? Has Troughzilla already been forgotten?? ;)

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Yeah... but maybe a big crash earlier in the month.

 

I am not sure how big of a crash though. Its hard to find years in our history that were very warm all spring and then had big heat in the first part of June and then just turned colder and wetter than normal.

That's why I was (and still am, somewhat) skeptical of sliding into the Niña/-AAM background before July. Hard to get it done before then, but it's happened before. You have to back to the 1930s, I believe (based on reconstructive analysis), which coincidently was the last time we saw a persistent +IO/+PDO under a developing Niña. Still, I don't like relying on old analogs like that.

 

That said, there's no denying this: http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=global&pkg=chi200&runtime=2016052706&fh=342&xpos=0&ypos=471

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Interesting that you say this, since the models are trending warmer than ever for the first week of the month.

My +4.5 June idea was based on the premise of a blowtorch through ~ June 20th, associated with the PNA/AAM spike. A faster/more aggressive return of IO/MT forcing in early/mid June would cut that blowtorch short by about a week.

 

I'm probably going to have to go with my gut on this one.

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PDX:

 

June: 2.1

 

July: 1.1

 

August: 0.2

 

September 0.1

 

SEA:

 

June: 2.4

 

July: 1.3

 

August: 0.5

 

September: -0.1

 

EUG: 

 

June 1.9

 

July: 0.8

 

August: 0.0

 

September: -0.3

 

OLM:

 

June: 1.8

 

July: 0.9

 

August: -0.1

 

September: -0.7

 

DCA:

 

June: 0.5

 

July: 2.9

 

August: 3.8

 

September: 4.1

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Figures one of the most complicated pattern evolutions possible (from a predictive standpoint) will occur over the next 3-4 weeks. I'll probably wait until last minute..need all the data I can get.

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PDX

 

June: +2.8

July: +1.2

August: +1.5

September: +0.8

 

SEA

 

June: +2.9

July: +1.1

August: +1.6

September: +1.2

 

EUG:

 

June: +2.4

July: +1.0

August: +0.8

September: +0.8

 

OLM:

 

June: +2.1

July: +1.3

August: +1.1

September: +1.0

 

DCA:

 

June: 0.0

July: +1.5

Aug: +3.5

Sept: +3.5

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Update..might tweak these numbers a bit before the deadline.

 

Most uncertain month is July. If I miss my timing by as little as two weeks, it'll be potentially problematic for me.

 

PDX:

 

June: +2.2

July: -0.7

August: -1.5

September: -1.5

 

SEA

 

June: +2.6

July: -0.4

August: -1.1

September: -0.9

 

EUG

 

June: +2.2

July: -0.9

August: -1.9

September: -1.7

 

OLM

 

June: +1.8

July: -1.3

August: -1.9

September: -1.7

 

DCA

 

June: +2.8

July: +3.8

August: +4.3

September +4.7

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