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Summer 2016 Monthly Anomaly Forecast Contest

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#51
Phil

Posted 21 June 2016 - 11:53 AM

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I guess another question is how do you define western ridging? The 4 corners high has become well established in the past week, with plenty of heat throughout the Southwest...but not so for the PNW.


In this case, there should be a period of NW-North American ridging. Won't be long lived, though.
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Warm season 2017:
Thunderstorm days: 4
Severe days: 3
Hail: 1 (pea sized)
Wind: 2 (62mph, 58mph)
Rain total: 4.54"

#52
Phil

Posted 21 June 2016 - 11:55 AM

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I posted a forecast on May 25 ;)


I'll get started on my obituary, then.
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Warm season 2017:
Thunderstorm days: 4
Severe days: 3
Hail: 1 (pea sized)
Wind: 2 (62mph, 58mph)
Rain total: 4.54"

#53
Jesse

Posted 21 June 2016 - 02:29 PM

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Through the 20th.

PDX: +2.9

EUG: +3.7

SEA: +3.0

OLM: +1.2

#54
Front Ranger

Posted 23 June 2016 - 08:47 PM

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Virtually no shot at a top 5 warm month for OLM. Decent shot for EUG, pretty good chance for SEA, and PDX (though the -4 they put up today and continued cool weather tomorrow won't help). Will come down to how warm it gets the last couple days of the month.


Cool anomalies soothe the soul.


#55
Front Ranger

Posted 25 June 2016 - 02:52 PM

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Heading into the final week.

 

PDX: +2.3
SEA: +2.5

EUG: +2.9
OLM: +1.1

DCA: +1.6


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Cool anomalies soothe the soul.


#56
TT-SEA

Posted 25 June 2016 - 03:39 PM

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Heading into the final week.

 

PDX: +2.3
SEA: +2.5

EUG: +2.9
OLM: +1.1

DCA: +1.6

 

 

I am doing great assuming the temps are held in check for the next 5 days.   Eugene is lost on the warm side.

 

PDX
June: +2.8

SEA 
June: +2.9

EUG 
June: +2.2

OLM
June: +2.0

 

DCA

June: +1.5
 



#57
Phil

Posted 25 June 2016 - 04:41 PM

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I am doing great assuming the temps are held in check for the next 5 days. Eugene is lost on the warm side.

PDX
June: +2.8

SEA
June: +2.9

EUG
June: +2.2

OLM
June: +2.0


DCA

June: +1.5


You updated those numbers at the deadline.
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Warm season 2017:
Thunderstorm days: 4
Severe days: 3
Hail: 1 (pea sized)
Wind: 2 (62mph, 58mph)
Rain total: 4.54"

#58
TT-SEA

Posted 25 June 2016 - 04:42 PM

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You updated those numbers on June 1st.

 

 

I last updated my numbers on the evening of 5/31.



#59
Phil

Posted 25 June 2016 - 04:43 PM

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Trying to rewrite history again? This was your final update. ;)


PDX:


June: +2.6


July: +1.2


August: -.0.5


September +0.9


SEA:


June: +2.8


July: +1.4


August: -0.7


September: +0.9


EUG:


June +2.2


July: +1.7


August: -0.4


September: +1.7


OLM:


June: +2.4


July: +0.9


August: -1.1


September: +0.2


DCA:


June: +0.7


July: +4.5


August: +4.8


September: +4.2


Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Warm season 2017:
Thunderstorm days: 4
Severe days: 3
Hail: 1 (pea sized)
Wind: 2 (62mph, 58mph)
Rain total: 4.54"

#60
TT-SEA

Posted 25 June 2016 - 04:46 PM

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Ahhhh... 5/31 at 11:08 p.m. and slightly lower.

Now I need even less warmth this week. :)

#61
Phil

Posted 25 June 2016 - 05:08 PM

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Ahhhh... 5/31 at 11:08 p.m. and slightly lower.

Now I need even less warmth this week. :)


Peer pressure? ;)

I suspect I slightly overcorrected on June. Probably should have gone cooler for September and July, warmer for August, in hindsight.
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Warm season 2017:
Thunderstorm days: 4
Severe days: 3
Hail: 1 (pea sized)
Wind: 2 (62mph, 58mph)
Rain total: 4.54"

#62
Front Ranger

Posted 25 June 2016 - 08:35 PM

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I am doing great assuming the temps are held in check for the next 5 days.   Eugene is lost on the warm side.

 

PDX
June: +2.8

SEA 
June: +2.9

EUG 
June: +2.2

OLM
June: +2.0

 

DCA

June: +1.5
 

 

Yes, you will likely be very close on all but EUG. Probably a bit too warm for OLM, but very close on SEA and PDX.

 

Those who had little difference between OLM and SEA are going to be hurting as this contest goes on.


Cool anomalies soothe the soul.


#63
Phil

Posted 27 June 2016 - 05:59 AM

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OLM is still just +1.1 on the month as of yesterday. Might be lots of busts there going forward.http://w2.weather.go...ate.php?wfo=sew

Ironically, my biggest miss for June might be DCA. Low humidity messing with nighttime lows.
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Warm season 2017:
Thunderstorm days: 4
Severe days: 3
Hail: 1 (pea sized)
Wind: 2 (62mph, 58mph)
Rain total: 4.54"

#64
Jesse

Posted 29 June 2016 - 07:41 AM

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Where is the best place to look up monthly anoms for DCA?

#65
TT-SEA

Posted 29 June 2016 - 08:31 AM

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Where is the best place to look up monthly anoms for DCA?

 

http://w2.weather.gov/climate/?wfo=lwx

 

They are at +1.3 through yesterday.   



#66
TT-SEA

Posted 29 June 2016 - 08:33 AM

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I am perfectly right on target for both SEA and PDX right now.   :)

 

SEA  +2.8

PDX  +2.6



#67
Phil

Posted 29 June 2016 - 09:35 AM

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Alluding to what Flatiron noted, I'm glad I put some distance between OLM and SEA. Unlikely they end up anywhere close to eachother when all is said and done.
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Warm season 2017:
Thunderstorm days: 4
Severe days: 3
Hail: 1 (pea sized)
Wind: 2 (62mph, 58mph)
Rain total: 4.54"

#68
Front Ranger

Posted 29 June 2016 - 11:20 AM

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Alluding to what Flatiron noted, I'm glad I put some distance between OLM and SEA. Unlikely they end up anywhere close to eachother when all is said and done.

 

Though if the increasing troughiness forecast plays out, maybe a bit closer to each other than last summer's massive spread.


Cool anomalies soothe the soul.


#69
Jesse

Posted 30 June 2016 - 08:33 AM

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Renting a cabin at Clear Lake, Oregon the next two nights. I will be out of reception and thus unable to score month one of the contest until Saturday night.

Should be a great time. Weather is looking perfect.
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#70
Phil

Posted 30 June 2016 - 09:10 AM

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Despite overlapping constructive interference between intraseasonal waves in the EPAC, if it propagates eastward before ~7/20 (as would be climatologically expected) there might be a lot of warm busts in July.
  • Jesse likes this
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Warm season 2017:
Thunderstorm days: 4
Severe days: 3
Hail: 1 (pea sized)
Wind: 2 (62mph, 58mph)
Rain total: 4.54"

#71
BLI snowman

Posted 30 June 2016 - 10:42 AM

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Yeah, I'm thinking it might be safe to change those July numbers now.



#72
TT-SEA

Posted 01 July 2016 - 05:22 AM

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Final for June:

 

SEA  +2.6

OLM  +1.,2

PDX  +2.5

EUG  +3.2

DCA   +1.0



#73
BLI snowman

Posted 01 July 2016 - 05:27 AM

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Final for June:

 

SEA  +2.6

OLM  +1.,2

PDX  +2.5

EUG  +3.2

DCA   +1.0

 

EUG's Californication continues. 



#74
ShawniganLake

Posted 01 July 2016 - 07:29 AM

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Final for June:

 

SEA  +2.6

OLM  +1.,2

PDX  +2.5

EUG  +3.2

DCA   +1.0

Looks like Shawnigan Lake will come in close to +2.5F for June.  Maybe there is something wrong with the OLM sensor. 



#75
TT-SEA

Posted 01 July 2016 - 07:35 AM

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Looks like Shawnigan Lake will come in close to +2.5F for June.  Maybe there is something wrong with the OLM sensor. 

 

 

Ha!    :lol:

 

Maybe.  

 

That would be hilarious.  


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#76
Abbotsford_wx

Posted 01 July 2016 - 09:33 AM

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Looks like Shawnigan Lake will come in close to +2.5F for June.  Maybe there is something wrong with the OLM sensor. 

 

Abbotsford is only +1.2, same as OLM.

 

My personal station is +2.1, which seems more in line with the others.



#77
Front Ranger

Posted 01 July 2016 - 04:55 PM

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Abbotsford is only +1.2, same as OLM.

 

My personal station is +2.1, which seems more in line with the others.

 

I'm sure your period of record is in line with the others as well.  ;)


Cool anomalies soothe the soul.


#78
Front Ranger

Posted 01 July 2016 - 05:14 PM

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Attached File  Last1mTDeptWRCC-NW.png   18KB   0 downloads


Cool anomalies soothe the soul.


#79
TT-SEA

Posted 01 July 2016 - 08:47 PM

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Small area of below normal temps very close to OLM... in a sea of above normal temps.  :)



#80
Front Ranger

Posted 01 July 2016 - 10:26 PM

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Small area of below normal temps very close to OLM... in a sea of above normal temps.   :)

 

Most of western WA was in the 0 to +2 range, which OLM was. Though I wouldn't put a ton of stock into those exact shapes.


Cool anomalies soothe the soul.


#81
Front Ranger

Posted 07 July 2016 - 05:24 AM

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Who's winning?

Cool anomalies soothe the soul.


#82
Jesse

Posted 07 July 2016 - 06:52 AM

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Who's winning?

 

I need to add things up. My bad.

 

Been a busy week, going straight from being out of reception at a cabin back to work/school.



#83
Front Ranger

Posted 21 July 2016 - 03:57 PM

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We'll at least get a halfway-there update after July, right? The world watches and waits...


Cool anomalies soothe the soul.


#84
Phil

Posted 27 July 2016 - 02:38 PM

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After today, appears there'll only be two more +departure days across the lowlands, as 7/30 & 7/31 look to average cooler than normal. Probably locks in slightly negative departures at PDX and OLM at least, probably not @ EUG, definitely not @ SEA.

Also, looks like DCA will be the Achilles Heel again. Even after five consecutive 97+ degree days, the monthly departure is under +3.0. Probably will hit 97-99 degrees tomorrow, but cool close to average w/ mostly low 90s thereafter. Unless cloudcover/humidity keeps lows at 80+ degrees, many will bust high, including myself.
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Warm season 2017:
Thunderstorm days: 4
Severe days: 3
Hail: 1 (pea sized)
Wind: 2 (62mph, 58mph)
Rain total: 4.54"

#85
Jesse

Posted 06 August 2016 - 11:38 AM

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Hey guys, I've compiled the actual anomalies for the stations for June/July and have all of your forecasts on a spreadsheet too.

Going to finish up and post an update by tonight. Sorry for the long delay. Summer quarter has been far more time consuming than I anticipated, coupled with lots of traveling.
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#86
Jesse

Posted 07 August 2016 - 10:48 AM

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Here is a list of monthly anomalies so far:

 

June

 

PDX: 2.5

SEA: 2.6

OLM: 1.2

EUG: 3.2

DCA: 1.0

 

July

 

PDX: -0.1

SEA: 1.1

OLM: 0.3

EUG: 0.3

DCA: 2.9


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#87
Jesse

Posted 07 August 2016 - 10:53 AM

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Rankings through July (I calculated using average absolute error):

 

New Big Mack: 0.52

 

Flatiron: 0.60

 

Jesse: 0.60

 

Shawnigan: 0.77

 

James Jones: 0.79

 

Justin (No DCA forecast): 0.85

 

Dewey: 0.88

 

Phil: 0.95

 

Tim: 1.20

 

Eujunga: 1.21


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#88
ShawniganLake

Posted 07 August 2016 - 11:00 AM

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Rankings through July (I calculated using average absolute error):

 

New Big Mack: 0.52

 

Flatiron: 0.60

 

Jesse: 0.60

 

Shawnigan: 0.77

 

James Jones: 0.79

 

Justin (No DCA forecast): 0.85

 

Dewey: 0.88

 

Phil: 0.95

 

Tim: 1.20

 

Eujunga: 1.21

WTF, Phil and Tim at the bottom.  I figured they were neck and neck for first place, with them having their own thread and everything. 

 

Thanks for doing this Jesse. 


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#89
Jesse

Posted 07 August 2016 - 11:07 AM

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Just for giggles, looking at SEA only, Phil's average error is 0.75, and Tim's is 0.90

For PDX, Phil's average error is 0.45 and Tim's is 1.45

In other words, Phil is beating Tim pretty handily for the two most talked about stations, as well as the overall contest.
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#90
Eujunga

Posted 07 August 2016 - 11:26 AM

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Ha!  I figured I'd be in last place since I was basically pulling numbers randomly out of my a$$, but I had no idea it'd be so close! :lol:


Tujunga, CA (15 miles N of Downtown L.A.) - Elev. 1,860 ft.

 

Eugene, OR (5 miles SSW) - Elev. 850 ft.


#91
Jesse

Posted 07 August 2016 - 11:28 AM

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Ha!  I figured I'd be in last place since I was basically pulling numbers randomly out of my a$$, but I had no idea it'd be so close! :lol:

 

The way this breaks down statistically, a little bit counts for a lot.

 

1.21 is pretty far off in this case (I don't mean any offense by that). 



#92
Eujunga

Posted 07 August 2016 - 01:08 PM

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The way this breaks down statistically, a little bit counts for a lot.

 

1.21 is pretty far off in this case (I don't mean any offense by that). 

 

No offense taken -- I appreciate the correction.

 

I'm glad my prediction of a hot summer everywhere isn't coming true, since I'm one of those who prefers cool weather.  Sometimes it's lovely to be wrong!


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Tujunga, CA (15 miles N of Downtown L.A.) - Elev. 1,860 ft.

 

Eugene, OR (5 miles SSW) - Elev. 850 ft.


#93
TT-SEA

Posted 07 August 2016 - 07:51 PM

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SEA is all I know here... June was +2.6 and I had +2.8 and then July was +1.1 and I had +1.4

Within a couple tenths of a degree and a warm June and July overall.

Phil had June right but he had SEA below normal for July. There is no way he is beating me for SEA.

Jesse is just being Jesse again.

#94
Phil

Posted 10 August 2016 - 07:36 AM

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Funny, it's actually DCA that's killed me. More error there (for me) than three of the four other stations combined. :lol:
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Warm season 2017:
Thunderstorm days: 4
Severe days: 3
Hail: 1 (pea sized)
Wind: 2 (62mph, 58mph)
Rain total: 4.54"

#95
Phil

Posted 11 August 2016 - 06:21 AM

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When DCA hits 90 degrees at 9AM, it typically signals at least an upper 90s high.

I've literally lost track of the number of 9AM temperature readings at/above 90 degrees this year. What a hellhole..I'm in coastal GA right now and it feels nicer down here.
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Warm season 2017:
Thunderstorm days: 4
Severe days: 3
Hail: 1 (pea sized)
Wind: 2 (62mph, 58mph)
Rain total: 4.54"

#96
Phil

Posted 12 August 2016 - 11:16 AM

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Late August is going to make or break most of these forecasts. All hinges on whether we follow climo under the upcoming regime or we pull a fluke. Retrogression favored in the forcing/pattern analogs.

DCA cranking it up again today, 99/75 intra hour high currently..
  • Jesse likes this
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Warm season 2017:
Thunderstorm days: 4
Severe days: 3
Hail: 1 (pea sized)
Wind: 2 (62mph, 58mph)
Rain total: 4.54"

#97
Phil

Posted 14 August 2016 - 07:05 AM

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DCA up to 97 degrees by 1045AM. Piece of s**t climate.
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Warm season 2017:
Thunderstorm days: 4
Severe days: 3
Hail: 1 (pea sized)
Wind: 2 (62mph, 58mph)
Rain total: 4.54"

#98
Phil

Posted 16 August 2016 - 03:58 PM

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DCA is more than +5 for August now. At least we fell short of our fourth consecutive 100+ high...somehow managed a bone chilling 97 degrees :lol:

Tomorrow might be the first sub-95 degree day in 8 days. Gonna be close, though.
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Warm season 2017:
Thunderstorm days: 4
Severe days: 3
Hail: 1 (pea sized)
Wind: 2 (62mph, 58mph)
Rain total: 4.54"

#99
weatherfan2012

Posted 16 August 2016 - 07:05 PM

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Yeah plus tommore the front is likey to be draped across our location so depending where the boundary sets up there could be more clouds and storms chances keeping temperatures in the low 90s instead of the upper 90s to near 100.
  • Phil likes this

#100
Front Ranger

Posted 16 August 2016 - 07:52 PM

Front Ranger

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DCA is more than +5 for August now. At least we fell short of our fourth consecutive 100+ high...somehow managed a bone chilling 97 degrees :lol:

Tomorrow might be the first sub-95 degree day in 8 days. Gonna be close, though.

 

Looks quite a bit cooler going forward, though.


Cool anomalies soothe the soul.