Jump to content

Summer 2016 Monthly Anomaly Forecast Contest


Jesse

Recommended Posts

PDX:


 


June: +2.6


 


July: +1.2


 


August: -.0.5


 


September +0.9


 


SEA:


 


June: +2.8


 


July: +1.4


 


August: -0.7


 


September: +0.9


 


EUG: 


 


June +2.2


 


July: +1.7


 


August: -0.4


 


September: +1.7


 


OLM:


 


June: +2.4


 


July: +0.9


 


August: -1.1


 


September: +0.2


 


DCA:


 


June: +0.7


 


July: +4.5


 


August: +4.8


 


September: +4.2


**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Tweaked June a bit, after seeing the GEFS/GEFSBC cave and the CMC ensembles trend towards the ECMWF/EPS.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Sure, I'll give.

 

 

 

PDX:

June: +2.5

July: 0

August: -.8

September: -1

 

SEA:

June: +2.2

July: -0.5

August: -1.2

September: -1.2

 

EUG:

June: +2.3

July: -0.2

August: -1.0

September: -1.3

 

OLM:

June: +2.1

July: 0.1

August: -1.1

September: -1.4

 

DCA:

June: +1.0

July: +3.5

August: +3.9

September +4.3

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • 3 weeks later...

About to enter the home stretch for June. Looking like a lot of us will be in the ballpark overall, though probably too warm for a couple stations and too cool for at least one.

The last week of June is a big question mark. There'll be an MJO/propagatory wave traversing the Pacific, increasing WAFs under the antecedent anticyclone and leading to a period of western ridging (rise in the AAM/PNA).

 

How fast the wave degrades/orbits back into a the IO/MT (constructive interference w/ developing Niña) will determine how soon troughing returns in July, in my opinion,

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The last week of June is a big question mark. There'll be an MJO/propagatory wave traversing the Pacific, increasing WAFs under the antecedent anticyclone and leading to a period of western ridging (rise in the AAM/PNA).

 

How fast the wave degrades/orbits back into a the IO/MT (constructive interference w/ developing Niña) will determine how soon troughing returns in July, in my opinion,

I guess another question is how do you define western ridging? The 4 corners high has become well established in the past week, with plenty of heat throughout the Southwest...but not so for the PNW.

A forum for the end of the world.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I guess another question is how do you define western ridging? The 4 corners high has become well established in the past week, with plenty of heat throughout the Southwest...but not so for the PNW.

In this case, there should be a period of NW-North American ridging. Won't be long lived, though.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Virtually no shot at a top 5 warm month for OLM. Decent shot for EUG, pretty good chance for SEA, and PDX (though the -4 they put up today and continued cool weather tomorrow won't help). Will come down to how warm it gets the last couple days of the month.

A forum for the end of the world.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Heading into the final week.

 

PDX: +2.3

SEA: +2.5

EUG: +2.9

OLM: +1.1

DCA: +1.6

 

 

I am doing great assuming the temps are held in check for the next 5 days.   Eugene is lost on the warm side.

 

PDX

June: +2.8

 

SEA 

June: +2.9

 

EUG 

June: +2.2

 

OLM

June: +2.0

 

DCA

June: +1.5

 

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I am doing great assuming the temps are held in check for the next 5 days. Eugene is lost on the warm side.

PDX

June: +2.8

 

SEA

June: +2.9

 

EUG

June: +2.2

 

OLM

June: +2.0

DCA

June: +1.5

You updated those numbers at the deadline.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Trying to rewrite history again? This was your final update. ;)

 

PDX:

June: +2.6

July: +1.2

August: -.0.5

September +0.9

SEA:

June: +2.8

July: +1.4

August: -0.7

September: +0.9

EUG:

June +2.2

July: +1.7

August: -0.4

September: +1.7

OLM:

June: +2.4

July: +0.9

August: -1.1

September: +0.2

DCA:

June: +0.7

July: +4.5

August: +4.8

September: +4.2

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Ahhhh... 5/31 at 11:08 p.m. and slightly lower.

 

Now I need even less warmth this week. :)

Peer pressure? ;)

 

I suspect I slightly overcorrected on June. Probably should have gone cooler for September and July, warmer for August, in hindsight.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I am doing great assuming the temps are held in check for the next 5 days.   Eugene is lost on the warm side.

 

PDX

June: +2.8

 

SEA 

June: +2.9

 

EUG 

June: +2.2

 

OLM

June: +2.0

 

DCA

June: +1.5

 

 

Yes, you will likely be very close on all but EUG. Probably a bit too warm for OLM, but very close on SEA and PDX.

 

Those who had little difference between OLM and SEA are going to be hurting as this contest goes on.

A forum for the end of the world.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

OLM is still just +1.1 on the month as of yesterday. Might be lots of busts there going forward.http://w2.weather.gov/climate/getclimate.php?wfo=sew

 

Ironically, my biggest miss for June might be DCA. Low humidity messing with nighttime lows.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Alluding to what Flatiron noted, I'm glad I put some distance between OLM and SEA. Unlikely they end up anywhere close to eachother when all is said and done.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Alluding to what Flatiron noted, I'm glad I put some distance between OLM and SEA. Unlikely they end up anywhere close to eachother when all is said and done.

 

Though if the increasing troughiness forecast plays out, maybe a bit closer to each other than last summer's massive spread.

A forum for the end of the world.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Renting a cabin at Clear Lake, Oregon the next two nights. I will be out of reception and thus unable to score month one of the contest until Saturday night.

 

Should be a great time. Weather is looking perfect.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Despite overlapping constructive interference between intraseasonal waves in the EPAC, if it propagates eastward before ~7/20 (as would be climatologically expected) there might be a lot of warm busts in July.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Looks like Shawnigan Lake will come in close to +2.5F for June.  Maybe there is something wrong with the OLM sensor. 

 

 

Ha!    :lol:

 

Maybe.  

 

That would be hilarious.  

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Unfortunately, your content contains terms that we do not allow. Please edit your content to remove the highlighted words below.
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...

×
×
  • Create New...