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Summer 2016 Monthly Anomaly Forecast Contest

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#101
Phil

Posted 16 August 2016 - 08:26 PM

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Looks quite a bit cooler going forward, though.


Yeah, as in low/mid 90s instead of upper 90s/low 100s. :lol:

Can't have SW flow @ 500mb here and expect cool temperatures. Maybe we get a few cool days intermixed late this week, but that primary trough axis is too far west.
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Warm season 2017
Thunderstorm days: 10
Severe days: 5
Rain total: 11.58"
Highs at/above 90*F: 16
Warmest high: 99.4*F
Warmest low: 79.7*F

#102
Front Ranger

Posted 16 August 2016 - 08:47 PM

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Yeah, as in low/mid 90s instead of upper 90s/low 100s. :lol:

Can't have SW flow @ 500mb here and expect cool temperatures. Naybe we get a few cool days intermixed there but that primary trough axis is too far west.

 

NWS is going with mid/upper 80s later in the week. 850s certainly cool from recent. 

 

I doubt DCA ends the month near +5.


Cool anomalies soothe the soul.


#103
Phil

Posted 16 August 2016 - 08:57 PM

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NWS is going with mid/upper 80s later in the week. 850s certainly cool from recent.

I doubt DCA ends the month near +5.


This is the type of pattern that will easily produce 90+ temperatures east of the Fall Line, along with warm overnight lows. Probably my least favorite summer pattern (trough to the west, SW flow on the front quadrant).

Normals are in the mid-80s now, low-80s in ~ 10 days. Should easily finish the month at least around +4, maybe closer to +4.5.
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Warm season 2017
Thunderstorm days: 10
Severe days: 5
Rain total: 11.58"
Highs at/above 90*F: 16
Warmest high: 99.4*F
Warmest low: 79.7*F

#104
Phil

Posted 17 August 2016 - 05:13 AM

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Yeah, already 88/72 as of 850AM. Crap climate.

Never underestimate downsloping westerly flow, especially with the Potomac River sitting at 93 degrees. #deathbydewpoint
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Warm season 2017
Thunderstorm days: 10
Severe days: 5
Rain total: 11.58"
Highs at/above 90*F: 16
Warmest high: 99.4*F
Warmest low: 79.7*F

#105
Phil

Posted 17 August 2016 - 06:29 AM

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Like clockwork, 90/70 by 925AM. That's now 19 days that've touched 90 degrees before 930AM.

Since 7/13, we've only had 4 days below 90 degrees, and since 7/5, we've only had 1 low below 70 degrees, and that was just barely so. Amazing how we always find a way to blowtorch in July/August, regardless of the pattern.
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Warm season 2017
Thunderstorm days: 10
Severe days: 5
Rain total: 11.58"
Highs at/above 90*F: 16
Warmest high: 99.4*F
Warmest low: 79.7*F

#106
Deweydog

Posted 17 August 2016 - 06:32 AM

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Like clockwork, 90/70 by 925AM. That's now 19 days that've touched 90 degrees before 930AM.

Since 7/13, we've only had 4 days below 90 degrees, and since 7/5, we've only had 1 low below 70 degrees, and that was just barely so. Amazing how we always find a way to blowtorch in July/August, regardless of the pattern.


Even more amazing is the fact we're three years into an ice age.

All roads lead to Walgreens.  


#107
Phil

Posted 17 August 2016 - 06:34 AM

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Even more amazing is the fact we're three years into an ice age.


Gotta wait until 2017, babes.

(Technically, 2016 was probably peak).
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Warm season 2017
Thunderstorm days: 10
Severe days: 5
Rain total: 11.58"
Highs at/above 90*F: 16
Warmest high: 99.4*F
Warmest low: 79.7*F

#108
Deweydog

Posted 17 August 2016 - 06:40 AM

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Gotta wait until 2017, babes.

(Technically, 2016 was probably peak).


Free fallin'!!!
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All roads lead to Walgreens.  


#109
Phil

Posted 17 August 2016 - 01:14 PM

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Tomorrow might be the first sub-95 degree day in 8 days. Gonna be close, though.


What on earth was I smoking? Today officially marks the 8th consecutive 95+ high @ DCA, while 31 of the last 36 days have been 90+. The rest of the week & weekend look like low 90s on guidance, so maybe we break the 95+ streak at 8!

If the stars align, we might be able to pull off a 2-3 day stretch in the mid-80s early next week before the 90s return. 😱
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Warm season 2017
Thunderstorm days: 10
Severe days: 5
Rain total: 11.58"
Highs at/above 90*F: 16
Warmest high: 99.4*F
Warmest low: 79.7*F

#110
ShawniganLake

Posted 17 August 2016 - 02:51 PM

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What on earth was I smoking? Today officially marks the 8th consecutive 95+ high @ DCA, while 31 of the last 36 days have been 90+. The rest of the week & weekend look like low 90s on guidance, so maybe we break the 95+ streak at 8!

If the stars align, we might be able to pull off a 2-3 day stretch in the mid-80s early next week before the 90s return. 😱

How unusual is that for out there? Haven't seen much media hype about record breaking heat waves in the east. Although I don't pay as much attention to the news anymore.

#111
Phil

Posted 17 August 2016 - 02:55 PM

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How unusual is that for out there? Haven't seen much media hype about record breaking heat waves in the east. Although I don't pay as much attention to the news anymore.


Nothing record breaking, but it's been a toasty summer. This climate will always suck in the summer, as it has for hundreds of millions of years up to today.
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Warm season 2017
Thunderstorm days: 10
Severe days: 5
Rain total: 11.58"
Highs at/above 90*F: 16
Warmest high: 99.4*F
Warmest low: 79.7*F

#112
Eujunga

Posted 17 August 2016 - 03:49 PM

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Nothing record breaking, but it's been a toasty summer. This climate will always suck in the summer, as it has for hundreds of millions of years up to today.

 

No, there was one summer 376,434,955 years ago that was nice.

 

Several forum members complained about the how cool and dry it was.


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Tujunga, CA (15 miles N of Downtown L.A.) - Elev. 1,860 ft.

 

Eugene, OR (5 miles SSW) - Elev. 850 ft.


#113
Phil

Posted 17 August 2016 - 04:48 PM

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No, there was one summer 376,434,955 years ago that was nice.

Several forum members complained about the how cool and dry it was.


:lol:
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Warm season 2017
Thunderstorm days: 10
Severe days: 5
Rain total: 11.58"
Highs at/above 90*F: 16
Warmest high: 99.4*F
Warmest low: 79.7*F

#114
Phil

Posted 17 August 2016 - 04:59 PM

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This squall line will probably give DC its daily low @ like 10pm, then it'll warm through the night or something.
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Warm season 2017
Thunderstorm days: 10
Severe days: 5
Rain total: 11.58"
Highs at/above 90*F: 16
Warmest high: 99.4*F
Warmest low: 79.7*F

#115
Phil

Posted 18 August 2016 - 10:05 AM

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NWS is going with mid/upper 80s later in the week. 850s certainly cool from recent.

I doubt DCA ends the month near +5.


Still waiting on those mid/upper 80s. :(

90/70 as of 145pm.
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Warm season 2017
Thunderstorm days: 10
Severe days: 5
Rain total: 11.58"
Highs at/above 90*F: 16
Warmest high: 99.4*F
Warmest low: 79.7*F

#116
Front Ranger

Posted 18 August 2016 - 10:29 AM

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Still waiting on those mid/upper 80s. :(

90/70 as of 145pm.


NWS still saying 89 for Sat. Then seasonable next week.

 

Definitely cooling down.


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Cool anomalies soothe the soul.


#117
Phil

Posted 18 August 2016 - 11:36 AM

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NWS still saying 89 for Sat. Then seasonable next week.

Definitely cooling down.


I think we'll have to wait until Monday..hoping for ~3 days in mid/upper 80s from Monday - Wednesday before the pattern turns to utter s**t again later next week.
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Warm season 2017
Thunderstorm days: 10
Severe days: 5
Rain total: 11.58"
Highs at/above 90*F: 16
Warmest high: 99.4*F
Warmest low: 79.7*F

#118
Phil

Posted 19 August 2016 - 10:09 AM

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I guess I've turned this into my personal venting thread since the eastern forum is a barren wasteland.

Reached 90/65 before 1pm, drier air today. So, since 7/13, still only 4 days below 90F, only 8 days w/ heat indices below 100F, and only 1 low below 70F. F**king piece of s**t climate.
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Warm season 2017
Thunderstorm days: 10
Severe days: 5
Rain total: 11.58"
Highs at/above 90*F: 16
Warmest high: 99.4*F
Warmest low: 79.7*F

#119
Phil

Posted 20 August 2016 - 08:23 AM

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NWS still saying 89 for Sat. Then seasonable next week.

Definitely cooling down.


Well, only took until 1040AM to reach 91 degrees. Hope you're enjoying your near record-low temperatures. 😒 (I've gotta move to Denver).

Looks like we get three days in the mid/upper 80s from Monday through Wednesday, then right back to hell again. Screw it.
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Warm season 2017
Thunderstorm days: 10
Severe days: 5
Rain total: 11.58"
Highs at/above 90*F: 16
Warmest high: 99.4*F
Warmest low: 79.7*F

#120
Deweydog

Posted 20 August 2016 - 08:34 AM

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Summer anomalies!!!
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All roads lead to Walgreens.  


#121
Phil

Posted 20 August 2016 - 08:38 AM

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Summer anomalies!!!


As long as they don't become winter anomalies!

I doubt you'd maintain your "above the fray" schtick if you were to spend a summer here. ;)
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Warm season 2017
Thunderstorm days: 10
Severe days: 5
Rain total: 11.58"
Highs at/above 90*F: 16
Warmest high: 99.4*F
Warmest low: 79.7*F

#122
Phil

Posted 20 August 2016 - 08:43 AM

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God, I'm turning into Tim.

Sorry guys, lol.
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Warm season 2017
Thunderstorm days: 10
Severe days: 5
Rain total: 11.58"
Highs at/above 90*F: 16
Warmest high: 99.4*F
Warmest low: 79.7*F

#123
TT-SEA

Posted 20 August 2016 - 10:31 AM

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God, I'm turning into Tim.

Sorry guys, lol.

 

 

I have not complained like this for years.   Even through the most persistently wet winter ever last year.

 

If I even make one negative comment about anything its jumped all over by 10 different people.   


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#124
Deweydog

Posted 20 August 2016 - 01:12 PM

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God, I'm turning into Tim.

Sorry guys, lol.


You got to it before I could.

And you know, humidity is considerably lower above the fray.

All roads lead to Walgreens.  


#125
Phil

Posted 22 August 2016 - 08:47 AM

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NWS is going with mid/upper 80s later in the week. 850s certainly cool from recent.

I doubt DCA ends the month near +5.


Well, those mid/upper 80s never verified. :(

Still think we finish below +5?
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Warm season 2017
Thunderstorm days: 10
Severe days: 5
Rain total: 11.58"
Highs at/above 90*F: 16
Warmest high: 99.4*F
Warmest low: 79.7*F

#126
TT-SEA

Posted 22 August 2016 - 08:49 AM

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Well, those mid/upper 80s never verified. :(

Still think we finish below +5?

 

 

81 with a dewpoint of 61 at DCA at noon.  Downright pleasant.  



#127
Phil

Posted 22 August 2016 - 08:51 AM

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81 with a dewpoint of 61 at DCA at noon. Downright pleasant.


Next three days look absolutely heavenly. Wish I was home to experience it.

Right back into the humid blast furnace pattern later this week, though. I'll be home on 8/28 to resume classes, so expect the next heatwave to begin or already be underway by then. :lol:
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Warm season 2017
Thunderstorm days: 10
Severe days: 5
Rain total: 11.58"
Highs at/above 90*F: 16
Warmest high: 99.4*F
Warmest low: 79.7*F

#128
Front Ranger

Posted 22 August 2016 - 09:52 AM

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Well, those mid/upper 80s never verified. :(

Still think we finish below +5?


Eh, several days right around 90. And yes.

Cool anomalies soothe the soul.


#129
Phil

Posted 22 August 2016 - 10:04 AM

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Eh, several days right around 90. And yes.


Watch those "right around 90" days turn into "right around 95" days, with dewpoints in the mid/upper 70s.

West/Southwest flow always verifies warmer than guidance depicts.
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Warm season 2017
Thunderstorm days: 10
Severe days: 5
Rain total: 11.58"
Highs at/above 90*F: 16
Warmest high: 99.4*F
Warmest low: 79.7*F

#130
Front Ranger

Posted 22 August 2016 - 11:20 AM

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Watch those "right around 90" days turn into "right around 95" days, with dewpoints in the mid/upper 70s.

West/Southwest flow always verifies warmer than guidance depicts.

 

Guidance depicted you cooling down, and that has happened.


Cool anomalies soothe the soul.


#131
Phil

Posted 22 August 2016 - 12:27 PM

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Guidance depicted you cooling down, and that has happened.


If by "cooling down", you mean 2-3 days in the mid/upper 80s, followed by another string of 10+ consecutive days in the low/mid 90s w/ high humidity, then yeah we've cooled down. :lol:
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Warm season 2017
Thunderstorm days: 10
Severe days: 5
Rain total: 11.58"
Highs at/above 90*F: 16
Warmest high: 99.4*F
Warmest low: 79.7*F

#132
Phil

Posted 25 August 2016 - 10:13 AM

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Hottest August on record @ DCA is now in play, as another seemingly endless stretch of low/mid 90s upcoming starting today. Could flirt with +5, will make at least +4.5.

Anything over +4.7 will secure the record.
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Warm season 2017
Thunderstorm days: 10
Severe days: 5
Rain total: 11.58"
Highs at/above 90*F: 16
Warmest high: 99.4*F
Warmest low: 79.7*F

#133
Phil

Posted 29 August 2016 - 09:34 PM

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After today's 94/72 (+7) spread, I think a monthly record is more likely than not at DCA. The next two days should manage low/mid 90s quite easily.

Tomorrow will also (probably) mark 50 days at/above 90F this summer. Only 5 of them occurred in June, so I think September may once again deliver more 90+ days than June.
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Warm season 2017
Thunderstorm days: 10
Severe days: 5
Rain total: 11.58"
Highs at/above 90*F: 16
Warmest high: 99.4*F
Warmest low: 79.7*F

#134
Phil

Posted 31 August 2016 - 03:40 PM

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Barring any intrahour spikes, today's 91/73 spread @ DCA is one measly degree short of breaking the record for all-time hottest August on record, set in 1980's.

Final monthly anomaly should read +4.7.
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Warm season 2017
Thunderstorm days: 10
Severe days: 5
Rain total: 11.58"
Highs at/above 90*F: 16
Warmest high: 99.4*F
Warmest low: 79.7*F

#135
TT-SEA

Posted 31 August 2016 - 03:45 PM

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Barring any intrahour spikes, today's 91/73 spread @ DCA is one measly degree short of breaking the record for all-time hottest August on record, set in 1980's.

Final monthly anomaly should read +4.7.

 

 

Definitely got warmer as the summer progressed there like you were thinking.  


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#136
Phil

Posted 31 August 2016 - 11:52 PM

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Definitely got warmer as the summer progressed there like you were thinking.


It's been hell. Since 7/13, I've only recorded 7 days below 90F, only 8 such days @ DCA.

Also amazes me how a climate that's so humid can be so dry..was blowing leaves today and literally started a dust storm.
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Warm season 2017
Thunderstorm days: 10
Severe days: 5
Rain total: 11.58"
Highs at/above 90*F: 16
Warmest high: 99.4*F
Warmest low: 79.7*F

#137
Phil

Posted 01 September 2016 - 11:40 AM

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Haha, ECMWF gets DC back into the 100s. F**k me bloody.

September is no longer a fall month here. December has morphed into a fall month, and March/April have morphed into a continuation of January/February. I'm so moving outta here when I graduate.
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Warm season 2017
Thunderstorm days: 10
Severe days: 5
Rain total: 11.58"
Highs at/above 90*F: 16
Warmest high: 99.4*F
Warmest low: 79.7*F

#138
weatherfan2012

Posted 01 September 2016 - 12:03 PM

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Haha, ECMWF gets DC back into the 100s. F**k me bloody.
September is no longer a fall month here. December has morphed into a fall month, and March/April have morphed into a continuation of January/February. I'm so moving outta here when I graduate.

that has seem to have been the over all pattern the last few years 2014-2015 at least.It makes you wonder what weather patterns will be like once we get deeper into this solar minimum as we get to the end of cycle 24 and cycle 25 in a few years down the road.more importantly the real million dollar question is exactly how cycles 25 and 26 behave.

#139
Phil

Posted 07 September 2016 - 11:41 AM

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that has seem to have been the over all pattern the last few years 2014-2015 at least.It makes you wonder what weather patterns will be like once we get deeper into this solar minimum as we get to the end of cycle 24 and cycle 25 in a few years down the road.more importantly the real million dollar question is exactly how cycles 25 and 26 behave.


Have to wonder if September has permanently morphed into a summer month. This is the 4th consecutive September to blowtorch into oblivion.

Feels like f**king July outside, currently 94/72, H/I 101. Screw this useless piece of crap month.
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Warm season 2017
Thunderstorm days: 10
Severe days: 5
Rain total: 11.58"
Highs at/above 90*F: 16
Warmest high: 99.4*F
Warmest low: 79.7*F

#140
Deweydog

Posted 07 September 2016 - 11:48 AM

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Have to wonder if September has permanently morphed into a summer month. This is the 4th consecutive September to blowtorch into oblivion.

Feels like f**king July outside, currently 94/72, H/I 101. Screw this useless piece of crap month.


I think the September thermometer is just broken.

All roads lead to Walgreens.  


#141
weatherfan2012

Posted 07 September 2016 - 01:04 PM

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Have to wonder if September has permanently morphed into a summer month. This is the 4th consecutive September to blowtorch into oblivion.
Feels like f**king July outside, currently 94/72, H/I 101. Screw this useless piece of crap month.

agree this is just terrible hot for September

#142
Phil

Posted 08 September 2016 - 07:22 AM

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agree this is just terrible hot for September


Yup, words cannot describe my growing hatred for this climate.

DCA just jumped 10*F in the last hour, 8*F in 20 minutes. Was 82/75 @ 10:05AM, 90/72 @ 10:25AM, now at least 92/70 as of 10:45AM. Will probably reach 97-98*F before 2pm. At least with the longer nights now, we're not hitting 90*F by 9AM anymore..that's a win, right? :lol:

I think J/A/S is our new "peak" of summer, while J/F/M/A is our new winter. Oh, and Spring has been forever cancelled..we just jump right into summer after three weeks of drizzle and marine air. Heck, April has been more of a winter month than November/December combined in recent years. Both last year and the year before, we've observed more snowfall in April than November/December combined. Terrible.
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Warm season 2017
Thunderstorm days: 10
Severe days: 5
Rain total: 11.58"
Highs at/above 90*F: 16
Warmest high: 99.4*F
Warmest low: 79.7*F

#143
Phil

Posted 08 September 2016 - 05:04 PM

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High was 98*F, only 6*F short of the all time September record high of 104*F set back in 1881.

Currently 85/76, H/I 94.
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Warm season 2017
Thunderstorm days: 10
Severe days: 5
Rain total: 11.58"
Highs at/above 90*F: 16
Warmest high: 99.4*F
Warmest low: 79.7*F

#144
Phil

Posted 08 September 2016 - 07:04 PM

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So, that's now 20 days @ 95F+ this summer, tied for 10th place all time. Tomorrow and Saturday will also be 95+.

To make matters worse, the 12z ECMWF has 97F forecasted next Wednesday, then another ridge about to develop. 😭🤒
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Warm season 2017
Thunderstorm days: 10
Severe days: 5
Rain total: 11.58"
Highs at/above 90*F: 16
Warmest high: 99.4*F
Warmest low: 79.7*F

#145
TT-SEA

Posted 08 September 2016 - 07:20 PM

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So this is the Phil complaining thread??   


  • GHweatherChris and Front Ranger like this

#146
GHweatherChris

Posted 08 September 2016 - 08:19 PM

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So this is the Phil complaining thread??


Apparently.

#147
Phil

Posted 08 September 2016 - 08:47 PM

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So this is the Phil complaining thread??


Yes. Join me, you know you want to. ;)
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Warm season 2017
Thunderstorm days: 10
Severe days: 5
Rain total: 11.58"
Highs at/above 90*F: 16
Warmest high: 99.4*F
Warmest low: 79.7*F

#148
TT-SEA

Posted 08 September 2016 - 08:57 PM

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Yes. Join me, you know you want to. ;)

 

 

Why?  Lovely weather here.    I believe this year I have really complained once... about 3 days of rain in June because the models were wrong and we had plans.   And I am still hearing about it.   

 

And don't tell me about the regime for the last 2 years.    Its been a very wet regime this decade here.    It has to get better... meaning drier... for a few years.



#149
Phil

Posted 08 September 2016 - 09:04 PM

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Why? Lovely weather here. I believe this year I have really complained once... about 3 days of rain in June because the models were wrong and we had plans. And I am still hearing about it.

You have complained more in this thread than I have complained in a long time!


I think you'd be throwing a temper tantrum if you were experiencing this weather. :)

There's so much condensation on our bedroom window right now that water is beginning to puddle on/under the window-sill. We had to put a towel there..smh
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Warm season 2017
Thunderstorm days: 10
Severe days: 5
Rain total: 11.58"
Highs at/above 90*F: 16
Warmest high: 99.4*F
Warmest low: 79.7*F

#150
TT-SEA

Posted 08 September 2016 - 09:11 PM

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I think you'd be throwing a temper tantrum if you were experiencing this weather. :)

There's so much condensation on our bedroom window right now that water is beginning to puddle on/under the window-sill. We had to put a towel there..smh

 

 

Yeah... I will take our weather for now.   I might be jealous of your weather again soon enough though.