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Summer 2016 Monthly Anomaly Forecast Contest


Jesse

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  • 2 weeks later...

After today, appears there'll only be two more +departure days across the lowlands, as 7/30 & 7/31 look to average cooler than normal. Probably locks in slightly negative departures at PDX and OLM at least, probably not @ EUG, definitely not @ SEA.

 

Also, looks like DCA will be the Achilles Heel again. Even after five consecutive 97+ degree days, the monthly departure is under +3.0. Probably will hit 97-99 degrees tomorrow, but cool close to average w/ mostly low 90s thereafter. Unless cloudcover/humidity keeps lows at 80+ degrees, many will bust high, including myself.

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  • 2 weeks later...

Hey guys, I've compiled the actual anomalies for the stations for June/July and have all of your forecasts on a spreadsheet too.

 

Going to finish up and post an update by tonight. Sorry for the long delay. Summer quarter has been far more time consuming than I anticipated, coupled with lots of traveling.

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Rankings through July (I calculated using average absolute error):

 

New Big Mack: 0.52

 

Flatiron: 0.60

 

Jesse: 0.60

 

Shawnigan: 0.77

 

James Jones: 0.79

 

Justin (No DCA forecast): 0.85

 

Dewey: 0.88

 

Phil: 0.95

 

Tim: 1.20

 

Eujunga: 1.21

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Rankings through July (I calculated using average absolute error):

 

New Big Mack: 0.52

 

Flatiron: 0.60

 

Jesse: 0.60

 

Shawnigan: 0.77

 

James Jones: 0.79

 

Justin (No DCA forecast): 0.85

 

Dewey: 0.88

 

Phil: 0.95

 

Tim: 1.20

 

Eujunga: 1.21

WTF, Phil and Tim at the bottom.  I figured they were neck and neck for first place, with them having their own thread and everything. 

 

Thanks for doing this Jesse. 

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Just for giggles, looking at SEA only, Phil's average error is 0.75, and Tim's is 0.90

 

For PDX, Phil's average error is 0.45 and Tim's is 1.45

 

In other words, Phil is beating Tim pretty handily for the two most talked about stations, as well as the overall contest.

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Ha!  I figured I'd be in last place since I was basically pulling numbers randomly out of my a$$, but I had no idea it'd be so close! :lol:

 

The way this breaks down statistically, a little bit counts for a lot.

 

1.21 is pretty far off in this case (I don't mean any offense by that). 

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SEA is all I know here... June was +2.6 and I had +2.8 and then July was +1.1 and I had +1.4

 

Within a couple tenths of a degree and a warm June and July overall.

 

Phil had June right but he had SEA below normal for July. There is no way he is beating me for SEA.

 

Jesse is just being Jesse again.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Funny, it's actually DCA that's killed me. More error there (for me) than three of the four other stations combined. :lol:

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When DCA hits 90 degrees at 9AM, it typically signals at least an upper 90s high.

 

I've literally lost track of the number of 9AM temperature readings at/above 90 degrees this year. What a hellhole..I'm in coastal GA right now and it feels nicer down here.

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Late August is going to make or break most of these forecasts. All hinges on whether we follow climo under the upcoming regime or we pull a fluke. Retrogression favored in the forcing/pattern analogs.

 

DCA cranking it up again today, 99/75 intra hour high currently..

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DCA is more than +5 for August now. At least we fell short of our fourth consecutive 100+ high...somehow managed a bone chilling 97 degrees :lol:

 

Tomorrow might be the first sub-95 degree day in 8 days. Gonna be close, though.

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DCA is more than +5 for August now. At least we fell short of our fourth consecutive 100+ high...somehow managed a bone chilling 97 degrees :lol:

 

Tomorrow might be the first sub-95 degree day in 8 days. Gonna be close, though.

 

Looks quite a bit cooler going forward, though.

A forum for the end of the world.

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Looks quite a bit cooler going forward, though.

Yeah, as in low/mid 90s instead of upper 90s/low 100s. :lol:

 

Can't have SW flow @ 500mb here and expect cool temperatures. Maybe we get a few cool days intermixed late this week, but that primary trough axis is too far west.

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Yeah, as in low/mid 90s instead of upper 90s/low 100s. :lol:

 

Can't have SW flow @ 500mb here and expect cool temperatures. Naybe we get a few cool days intermixed there but that primary trough axis is too far west.

 

NWS is going with mid/upper 80s later in the week. 850s certainly cool from recent. 

 

I doubt DCA ends the month near +5.

A forum for the end of the world.

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NWS is going with mid/upper 80s later in the week. 850s certainly cool from recent.

 

I doubt DCA ends the month near +5.

This is the type of pattern that will easily produce 90+ temperatures east of the Fall Line, along with warm overnight lows. Probably my least favorite summer pattern (trough to the west, SW flow on the front quadrant).

 

Normals are in the mid-80s now, low-80s in ~ 10 days. Should easily finish the month at least around +4, maybe closer to +4.5.

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Yeah, already 88/72 as of 850AM. Crap climate.

 

Never underestimate downsloping westerly flow, especially with the Potomac River sitting at 93 degrees. #deathbydewpoint

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Like clockwork, 90/70 by 925AM. That's now 19 days that've touched 90 degrees before 930AM.

 

Since 7/13, we've only had 4 days below 90 degrees, and since 7/5, we've only had 1 low below 70 degrees, and that was just barely so. Amazing how we always find a way to blowtorch in July/August, regardless of the pattern.

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Like clockwork, 90/70 by 925AM. That's now 19 days that've touched 90 degrees before 930AM.

 

Since 7/13, we've only had 4 days below 90 degrees, and since 7/5, we've only had 1 low below 70 degrees, and that was just barely so. Amazing how we always find a way to blowtorch in July/August, regardless of the pattern.

Even more amazing is the fact we're three years into an ice age.

My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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Even more amazing is the fact we're three years into an ice age.

Gotta wait until 2017, babes.

 

(Technically, 2016 was probably peak).

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How unusual is that for out there? Haven't seen much media hype about record breaking heat waves in the east. Although I don't pay as much attention to the news anymore.

Nothing record breaking, but it's been a toasty summer. This climate will always suck in the summer, as it has for hundreds of millions of years up to today.

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No, there was one summer 376,434,955 years ago that was nice.

 

Several forum members complained about the how cool and dry it was.

:lol:

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This squall line will probably give DC its daily low @ like 10pm, then it'll warm through the night or something.

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NWS is going with mid/upper 80s later in the week. 850s certainly cool from recent.

 

I doubt DCA ends the month near +5.

Still waiting on those mid/upper 80s. :(

 

90/70 as of 145pm.

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NWS still saying 89 for Sat. Then seasonable next week.

 

Definitely cooling down.

I think we'll have to wait until Monday..hoping for ~3 days in mid/upper 80s from Monday - Wednesday before the pattern turns to utter s**t again later next week.

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I guess I've turned this into my personal venting thread since the eastern forum is a barren wasteland.

 

Reached 90/65 before 1pm, drier air today. So, since 7/13, still only 4 days below 90F, only 8 days w/ heat indices below 100F, and only 1 low below 70F. F**king piece of s**t climate.

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Summer anomalies!!!

As long as they don't become winter anomalies!

 

I doubt you'd maintain your "above the fray" schtick if you were to spend a summer here. ;)

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God, I'm turning into Tim.

 

Sorry guys, lol.

 

 

I have not complained like this for years.   Even through the most persistently wet winter ever last year.

 

If I even make one negative comment about anything its jumped all over by 10 different people.   

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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