Jump to content

Summer 2016 Monthly Anomaly Forecast Contest


Jesse

Recommended Posts

NWS is going with mid/upper 80s later in the week. 850s certainly cool from recent.

 

I doubt DCA ends the month near +5.

Well, those mid/upper 80s never verified. :(

 

Still think we finish below +5?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Well, those mid/upper 80s never verified. :(

 

Still think we finish below +5?

 

 

81 with a dewpoint of 61 at DCA at noon.  Downright pleasant.  

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

Link to comment
Share on other sites

81 with a dewpoint of 61 at DCA at noon. Downright pleasant.

Next three days look absolutely heavenly. Wish I was home to experience it.

 

Right back into the humid blast furnace pattern later this week, though. I'll be home on 8/28 to resume classes, so expect the next heatwave to begin or already be underway by then. :lol:

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Eh, several days right around 90. And yes.

Watch those "right around 90" days turn into "right around 95" days, with dewpoints in the mid/upper 70s.

 

West/Southwest flow always verifies warmer than guidance depicts.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Guidance depicted you cooling down, and that has happened.

If by "cooling down", you mean 2-3 days in the mid/upper 80s, followed by another string of 10+ consecutive days in the low/mid 90s w/ high humidity, then yeah we've cooled down. :lol:

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Hottest August on record @ DCA is now in play, as another seemingly endless stretch of low/mid 90s upcoming starting today. Could flirt with +5, will make at least +4.5.

 

Anything over +4.7 will secure the record.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

After today's 94/72 (+7) spread, I think a monthly record is more likely than not at DCA. The next two days should manage low/mid 90s quite easily.

 

Tomorrow will also (probably) mark 50 days at/above 90F this summer. Only 5 of them occurred in June, so I think September may once again deliver more 90+ days than June.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Barring any intrahour spikes, today's 91/73 spread @ DCA is one measly degree short of breaking the record for all-time hottest August on record, set in 1980's.

 

Final monthly anomaly should read +4.7.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Barring any intrahour spikes, today's 91/73 spread @ DCA is one measly degree short of breaking the record for all-time hottest August on record, set in 1980's.

 

Final monthly anomaly should read +4.7.

 

 

Definitely got warmer as the summer progressed there like you were thinking.  

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Definitely got warmer as the summer progressed there like you were thinking.

It's been hell. Since 7/13, I've only recorded 7 days below 90F, only 8 such days @ DCA.

 

Also amazes me how a climate that's so humid can be so dry..was blowing leaves today and literally started a dust storm.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Haha, ECMWF gets DC back into the 100s. F**k me bloody.

 

September is no longer a fall month here. December has morphed into a fall month, and March/April have morphed into a continuation of January/February. I'm so moving outta here when I graduate.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Haha, ECMWF gets DC back into the 100s. F**k me bloody.

September is no longer a fall month here. December has morphed into a fall month, and March/April have morphed into a continuation of January/February. I'm so moving outta here when I graduate.

that has seem to have been the over all pattern the last few years 2014-2015 at least.It makes you wonder what weather patterns will be like once we get deeper into this solar minimum as we get to the end of cycle 24 and cycle 25 in a few years down the road.more importantly the real million dollar question is exactly how cycles 25 and 26 behave.
Link to comment
Share on other sites

that has seem to have been the over all pattern the last few years 2014-2015 at least.It makes you wonder what weather patterns will be like once we get deeper into this solar minimum as we get to the end of cycle 24 and cycle 25 in a few years down the road.more importantly the real million dollar question is exactly how cycles 25 and 26 behave.

Have to wonder if September has permanently morphed into a summer month. This is the 4th consecutive September to blowtorch into oblivion.

 

Feels like f**king July outside, currently 94/72, H/I 101. Screw this useless piece of crap month.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Have to wonder if September has permanently morphed into a summer month. This is the 4th consecutive September to blowtorch into oblivion.

 

Feels like f**king July outside, currently 94/72, H/I 101. Screw this useless piece of crap month.

I think the September thermometer is just broken.

My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

agree this is just terrible hot for September

Yup, words cannot describe my growing hatred for this climate.

 

DCA just jumped 10*F in the last hour, 8*F in 20 minutes. Was 82/75 @ 10:05AM, 90/72 @ 10:25AM, now at least 92/70 as of 10:45AM. Will probably reach 97-98*F before 2pm. At least with the longer nights now, we're not hitting 90*F by 9AM anymore..that's a win, right? :lol:

 

I think J/A/S is our new "peak" of summer, while J/F/M/A is our new winter. Oh, and Spring has been forever cancelled..we just jump right into summer after three weeks of drizzle and marine air. Heck, April has been more of a winter month than November/December combined in recent years. Both last year and the year before, we've observed more snowfall in April than November/December combined. Terrible.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

High was 98*F, only 6*F short of the all time September record high of 104*F set back in 1881.

 

Currently 85/76, H/I 94.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Yes. Join me, you know you want to. ;)

 

 

Why?  Lovely weather here.    I believe this year I have really complained once... about 3 days of rain in June because the models were wrong and we had plans.   And I am still hearing about it.   

 

And don't tell me about the regime for the last 2 years.    Its been a very wet regime this decade here.    It has to get better... meaning drier... for a few years.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Why? Lovely weather here. I believe this year I have really complained once... about 3 days of rain in June because the models were wrong and we had plans. And I am still hearing about it.

 

You have complained more in this thread than I have complained in a long time!

I think you'd be throwing a temper tantrum if you were experiencing this weather. :)

 

There's so much condensation on our bedroom window right now that water is beginning to puddle on/under the window-sill. We had to put a towel there..smh

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I think you'd be throwing a temper tantrum if you were experiencing this weather. :)

 

There's so much condensation on our bedroom window right now that water is beginning to puddle on/under the window-sill. We had to put a towel there..smh

 

 

Yeah... I will take our weather for now.   I might be jealous of your weather again soon enough though.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Yeah... I will take our weather for now. I might be jealous of your weather again soon enough though.

You're probably in a better spot for troughing than I am this winter.

 

We'll see, though!

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Failure continues..reached 90 degrees by 952AM, hit 97 degrees by 1108AM. Now we're stalled at 98 degrees, probably to fall short of the record.

 

DCA is 94/69, after hitting 97 @ 1145.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Haha, rack up another 95+ afternoon @ DCA. September has just catapulted into the crapper, especially since the mid/late 2000s..at least it feels relatively comfortable outside given very low humidity today.

 

Record warm month incoming? A bunch of 90+ days upcoming over the next 10+ days on modeling.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • 3 weeks later...

I ended being too cold with my prediction for the JJAS period for SEA.

 

My prediction was:

+2.8

+1.4

-0.7

+0.9

 

Actual was:

+2.6

+1.1

+2.6

-0.1

 

 

My prediction was for +1.1 overall for the 4-month period and the actual result at SEA was +1.6

 

My cold bias strikes again!  

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I ended being too cold with my prediction for the JJAS period for SEA.

 

My prediction was:

+2.8

+1.4

-0.7

+0.9

 

Actual was:

+2.6

+1.1

+2.6

-0.1

 

 

My prediction was for +1.1 overall for the 4-month period and the actual result at SEA was +1.6

 

My cold bias strikes again!  

 

Of course, you were too warm for 3/4 months...

A forum for the end of the world.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Of course, you were too warm for 3/4 months...

And too warm at every other station.

 

Just joshing, Tim. ;)

Link to comment
Share on other sites

And too warm at every other station.

 

Just joshing, Tim. ;)

 

 

I only really care (and know) about SEA of course.

 

Not sure how far I was at other stations.    But I was too cold for this area.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Of course, you were too warm for 3/4 months...

 

 

Yes... I should have been able to nail down 2.8 vs 2.6 and 1.4 vs 1.1.   How can I be off by such a huge margin??    

 

I sure blew August though. 

 

You were too warm by .5 for OLM for JJAS.   I was too cold by .5 for SEA for JJAS.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Unfortunately, your content contains terms that we do not allow. Please edit your content to remove the highlighted words below.
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...

×
×
  • Create New...