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June 2016 Observations and Discussions


Tom

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Like salt in open wounds man. Lol.

 

Sorry...  :lol:

 

Little warmer today. About 73° right now. Go 20 miles inland though and it's into the 80s.

 

When do you usually get the first push of autumn like air? Early September?

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Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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Both 12z GFS/EURO suggest and active pattern right around the Summer Solstice near the Midwest/Lakes.  A transient pattern as we flip the calendar into official Summer.  I certainly don't mind that near the Lakes.  Keeps things active enough.

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Formidable line approaching La Crosse. Posters in central WI should get in on the action tonight.

 

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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Flood Watch hoisted for N IL...

 

 

 

Flash Flood WatchFLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
854 PM CDT TUE JUN 14 2016

ILZ003>006-008-010>014-019>023-032-INZ001-151000-
/O.NEW.KLOT.FF.A.0001.160615T0154Z-160615T1100Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
WINNEBAGO-BOONE-MCHENRY-LAKE IL-OGLE-LEE-DE KALB-KANE-DUPAGE-COOK-
LA SALLE-KENDALL-GRUNDY-WILL-KANKAKEE-LIVINGSTON-LAKE IN-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ROCKFORD...BELVIDERE...WOODSTOCK...
WAUKEGAN...OREGON...DIXON...DEKALB...AURORA...ELGIN...WHEATON...
CHICAGO...OTTAWA...OSWEGO...MORRIS...JOLIET...KANKAKEE...
PONTIAC...GARY
854 PM CDT TUE JUN 14 2016

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM CDT WEDNESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CHICAGO HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF ILLINOIS AND NORTHWEST
INDIANA...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING AREAS...IN ILLINOIS...
BOONE...COOK...DE KALB...DUPAGE...GRUNDY...KANE...KANKAKEE...
KENDALL...LA SALLE...LAKE IL...LEE...LIVINGSTON...MCHENRY...
OGLE...WILL AND WINNEBAGO. IN NORTHWEST INDIANA...LAKE IN.

* UNTIL 6 AM CDT WEDNESDAY.

* THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TONIGHT, AND GIVEN THE VERY MOIST AIR
MASS, SOME OF THE STORMS COULD PRODUCE TORRENTIAL RAINFALL RATES
OF UP TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR STORMS TO
REPEATEDLY DEVELOP AND MOVE OVER THE SAME AREAS WHICH COULD LEAD
TO LOCALIZED RAINFALL TOTALS IN EXCESS OF 4 INCHES BY MORNING
IN A FEW LOCATIONS.
 
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Sorry... :lol:

 

Little warmer today. About 73° right now. Go 20 miles inland though and it's into the 80s.

 

When do you usually get the first push of autumn like air? Early September?

Yeah. That's about the normal time for the first good lingering rains and cooldowns to start after the August heat breaks down. It varies of course. I've seen it run 100s to September 5th and 90s til the 20th or so before also. I hate those years.

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Had some thundery rains late last night that dumped local 1-3" rain totals...nice soaking...now comes the heat and humidity!  Should easily make it into the lower 90's today.  Looking forward towards a nice stretch of dry weather through the weekend.

 

Looking out over the next 2 weeks, temps are likely to average near normal around the Lakes while the Plains will continue to Torch.  I'm sure we'll see several cold fronts swing through to keep things active.

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It's actually getting a little dry around here in Omaha. Grass is turning brown in spots. We've only had a 1/3" of rain since the last couple of days of May and we missed the rain yesterday when the forecast started out with a 70% of rain.

Now highs in the 90s are forecast through next Monday before next chance of rain comes in.

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Hot and dry in central Nebraska. Thank god for our rainy April and May. This hot weather feels like summers from my childhood. I would bet irrigation season starts soon. Haven't hit 100 in the central Nebraska tri cities area since July of 2014. Good chance this weekend. Looks like a long hot summer around here is starting early.

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0.77" of rain overnight. T-storms were the strongest of the year so far. And really loud!  :lol:

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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CPC now showing below normal temps and wetter near the Lakes next week and keeps the torch out west.

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/610temp.new.gif

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/610prcp.new.gif

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/814temp.new.gif

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^They don't need a hot dry pattern out there... especially SW.

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Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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^They don't need a hot dry pattern out there... especially SW.

I heard that the Euro Weeklies are showing increased chances of a wetter pattern as the Monsoon may show up by Week 3.  If that happens, we may get in on some ridging that hits and holds sometime in July.  We'll see if that pans out.  They need the rain out west bad like you mentioned.

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I heard that the Euro Weeklies are showing increased chances of a wetter pattern as the Monsoon may show up by Week 3.  If that happens, we may get in on some ridging that hits and holds sometime in July.  We'll see if that pans out.  They need the rain out west bad like you mentioned.

 

That would be a little early I think. Usually that kicks in mid July. Earlier the better.

I remember last year the Front Range was dry enough that leaves were falling when I was visiting with family on the last week of July.

 

 

Looks like tomorrow will a really nice day with winds out of the north and then cooler yet on Friday with NE winds.

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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That would be a little early I think. Usually that kicks in mid July. Earlier the better.

I remember last year the Front Range was dry enough that leaves were falling when I was visiting with family on the last week of July.

 

 

Looks like tomorrow will a really nice day with winds out of the north and then cooler yet on Friday with NE winds.

Technically, Monsoon season began yesterday believe it or not.

 

http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/psr/pns/2016/June/MonsoonAwarenessWeek.php

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Speaking of Monsoon, the latest JMA Monthlies are also suggesting above normal precip in the desert SW/Inter mountain West.  Meanwhile, near normal temps/precip are being forecast near the Lakes/Southern Midwest.

 

Something of note, the model is also seeing near average temps up in the Arctic.

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NOT a complete shut-out over here in SCMI :)

 

I don't do a rain gauge in mby, but our little airport ASOS is reporting .56" over the last two days. Thunder rumbles actually woke me twice last night - a rarity of late. Couple years ago we constantly got every T-storm between 12-5am right during my down time - lol

 

As posted by Chances, we've been left out of the good rains y'all have gotten to the west of Lk. Michigan.

 

This little bit will go a long way to stave off true drought conditions. The wild grassy areas and shaded places are fine, just the cut grasses out in the full sun were getting quite brown. Pretty sandy loam around here doesn't hold water well.

 

@ NE posters. In SMI, we haven't had to worry about anything close to a heat-wave since the drought ended in late July of 2012. And now Tom's maps are back-tracking away from the torchy look as well. Endless 80-85 and sunny, I can tolerate ;)

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Interesting JMA Weeklies run, showing the warming next week into the Plains but overall cooling to near normal as the ridge ends up retrograding farther west towards the west coast and inter mountain west.  It's also showing a troughy pattern in the eastern Canada which I believe will more than likely keep it active around these parts.

 

 

 

 

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Speaking of Monsoon, the latest JMA Monthlies are also suggesting above normal precip in the desert SW/Inter mountain West.  Meanwhile, near normal temps/precip are being forecast near the Lakes/Southern Midwest.

 

Something of note, the model is also seeing near average temps up in the Arctic.

 

Sure would be nice if the SWUS can get some decent moisture! We get 1 to 2 month droughts, but nothing like they get out there. Here's to hoping..

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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An early autumn "feel" in the air as a heavy overcast has taken over with a 70F temp and a NNW breeze.  Feels nice to take a step back from the heat and humidity.  Might be a common theme around these parts for the rest of summer with no sustained heat waves and a more transient pattern.

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Technically, Monsoon season began yesterday believe it or not.

 

http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/psr/pns/2016/June/MonsoonAwarenessWeek.php

 

Learned something new!

 

Those are incredible pictures above. Don't see many pictures where the lightning hits open water.

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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Looks like falling temps today. Already in the low 60s along Cook County's lake front. Winds predicted to back more NE as the day goes on.

 

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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An early autumn "feel" in the air as a heavy overcast has taken over with a 70F temp and a NNW breeze.  Feels nice to take a step back from the heat and humidity.  Might be a common theme around these parts for the rest of summer with no sustained heat waves and a more transient pattern.

 

My exact thoughts as I was out for lunch. 68*F hvy o-cast and traditional MI drizzle. Felt just like early Autumn. Actually a good thing for the bit of moisture we got to have a chance to be absorbed into the ground before the evaporation gets back into high gear starting Friday

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Mby in Calhoun County had NADA for the week running up to yesterday morning's paltry showers. Watching radar this pm has been renewed frustrations as a nice line of showers that passed over us here at the office in Lansing headed south, only to lose the portion that should've went through Marshall. I swear, like it hit a brick wall at the county line - lol

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Some 115° heat indexes down here today. Rough evenings at work in this stuff. When I'm wealthy one day, I'm buying a second home up north somewhere. Haha.

 

Tell me you don't work outside like on roads n stuff??  :o   Hopefully, my winter avatar pic offers some mental relief at least :lol:

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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CPC's July outlook...hot off the Press...

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/lead14/off14_temp.gif

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/lead14/off14_prcp.gif

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Tell me you don't work outside like on roads n stuff?? :o Hopefully, my winter avatar pic offers some mental relief at least :lol:

No. Thank goodness! I work in a machine shop without AC and a bunch of machines blasting heat out the top. You can pretty much stand in here and drip sweat.

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Don't know where this should go, but Jim flowers from kmtv in Omaha is stepping down from his weather position on July 1. You can read more on his Facebook page. I know I looked at his video posts and singing the last couple of winters. He will be missed. Loved reporting the weather. Little cooky but I don't think that is a bad thing.

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No. Thank goodness! I work in a machine shop without AC and a bunch of machines blasting heat out the top. You can pretty much stand in here and drip sweat.

 

No a/c in OK??  That's crazy nuts!  I worked in a factory back in '07 here in SMI where we had to wrench on equipment by hand in a certain room that had interior walls only and no a/c. My office had a/c, but I had to spend some days in that room for my project and that summer we had a few triple digit days and that room would heat up to like 120*F in the pm on those days. Also in the heat-wave of '88 I had no a/c at home work or in my (cheap old) car so I've lived it but man, it'd be brutal to go back there again now!  Pizza kitchen's no place to work in a hot summer either. Nice in the dead of a NMI winter, but I don't want to be them folks in the summer - no way.

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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A very dry pattern is being forecast over the next 10 days.  Here is the latest 10-day Euro precip...Hope we are able to get some storms Monday night as a cold front swings through.  Next week looks fantastic with cool nights and day time temps in the 70's by Wed.

 

 ClF9AqDWYAEboYM.jpg

 

 

Hail postponed a UEFA Euro Cup Game this past week...

 

ClFqbrnUsAE72lW.jpg

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If you watch jb video on weather bell this morning he talks about the forecasted cool June in the plains and what has actually happened. Totally wrong forecast, we are well above normal temps with more in the forecast.

 

Just curious if he mentions why things have gone opposite out there?

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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