July 2016 Observations and Discussions

[Tom]

As we flip the calendar into July and move towards the celebration of our country's Independence, 4th of July, let's discuss below what the models are predicting.

 

There's a lot of talk that the Midwest/Lakes region should be experiencing a hotter mid/end of Summer.  However, there is conflicting modeling indicating this longer term forecast.

 

Last month's run of the CanSIPS showing a cooler look for the mid section of the nation...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/cansips/2016060100/cansips_T2ma_us_2.png

 

 

Here is the CFSv2's take...use it with a grain of salt b/c of how bad the model busted in the Plains for the month of June.

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/monthly/images/summaryCFSv2.NaT2m.201607.gif

 

 

I think this month will average slightly above normal near the Lakes, but I expect the Plains to bake in the heat.  We will be entering the "wet" part of the LRC this month and probably expect plenty of cold fronts that will swing on through.

 

Here is the CPC's take...

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/lead14/off14_temp.gif

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/lead14/off14_prcp.gif

 

 

If the West continues to bake, you can probably expect the Plains to feel the "heat".  On occasion in the Midwest/Lakes, like we will be experiencing during the mid/later parts of next week, we will see doses of heat/humidity but I don't think it will hit and hold around these parts.

[jaster220]

If I was looking for any silver lining on June's drought over here, the fact that humidity has really not been felt for more than a day at a time would be it. Not sure I want to cheer on elevated dew points but I'll take what we've had in the way of temps and add moisture for July. Not run the A/C yet at home. Let's see which way July wants to go. My money is on the CFSv2 busting again with it's below normal outlook..

[Tom]

CPC just updated their July outlook...

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/lead14/off15_temp.gif

 

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/lead14/off15_prcp.gif

[Tom]

After a brief pop in temps post holiday weekend, both EPS/GEFS are hinting at another trough rolling through the following weekend.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf-ens/2016063012/ecmwf-ens_T850a_us_10.png

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf-ens/2016063012/ecmwf-ens_T850a_us_11.png

 

 

 

I'll take a transient weather pattern any day during the summer.  Keeps things active enough and allows for refreshing days/nights mixed in.

[Geos]

I really hope it rains tonight. Everything is burning up now. Nice dry weather the past three days, but it really needs to rain now.

[Tom]

Here is where we stand thus far since April...MI remains dry along with the southern Midwest, however, they should be getting a big soaker this holiday weekend.  I know some folks heading to the Lake of the Ozarks this weekend and the wx doesn't look promising as Flood Watches have been hoisted.  The Northwoods in WI have been quite active and wet of late.

 

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016070100/gfs_apcpn_ncus_20.png

 

 

[westMJim]

I will throw this in for July observations as the rain fell after midnight and thus fell in July. I had 0.38” of rain here at my house this morning (after midnight), At the airport they had 0.29” this morning.

 Here in Grand Rapids the official rain fall for June was 1.15” and that is good for the least amount of in June rain since 1988 when only 0.25” fell.  To the east in Lansing they only recorded 0.59” of rain and for that location that is also the least amount since 1988 when 0.20” fell. 

[OKwx2k4]

Everything definitely points to above average temperatures for my area. If precip falls in the quantities that are expected over the next few days could be wetter than average for the central part of the country also. Should make for a pretty humid and harsh July in my opinion.

[Tom]

CanSIPS updated July outlook...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/cansips/2016070100/cansips_T2ma_us_1.png

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/cansips/2016070100/cansips_apcpna_month_us_1.png

 

 

Looks similar to the CFSv2

[Geos]

Here is where we stand thus far since April...MI remains dry along with the southern Midwest, however, they should be getting a big soaker this holiday weekend.  I know some folks heading to the Lake of the Ozarks this weekend and the wx doesn't look promising as Flood Watches have been hoisted.  The Northwoods in WI have been quite active and wet of late.

 

 

 

That will keep any organized heat dome from organizing. Pattern looks transient for awhile.

 

Dew point down near 50° with the dry soils today. I remember the summer of 2012 had some usually low dew points in the middle of summer due to the dry ground and stunted crops.

[Hawkeye]

 

This map says I am about 1 inch below avg from Aprl through June, but that is way off.  I am actually nearly 4 inches ABOVE avg.  The entire Cedar River valley from Mason City through Waterloo to Cedar Rapids has been much wetter than what this map shows(primarily because of June).

[Geos]

This map says I am about 1 inch below avg from Aprl through June, but that is way off.  I am actually nearly 4 inches ABOVE avg.  The entire Cedar River valley from Mason City through Waterloo to Cedar Rapids has been much wetter than what this map shows(primarily because of June).

 

This map better?

 

 

http://www.hprcc.unl.edu/maps.php?map=ACISClimateMaps

[Geos]

Here's Nebraska.

 

[gabel23]

Here's Nebraska.

 

http://www.hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis/hprcc/ne/90dPNormHPRCC-NE.png

Right at normal for my area, lot of areas are above. 

[Hawkeye]

This map better?

 

It's not quite wet enough, but it's certainly better at showing the wetter corridor from Mason City to Cedar Rapids

[CentralNebWeather]

Thanks for the map. I am at 150% and hoping for several inches tonight and Saturday

[Geos]

Can't beat the low 70s forecast the whole weekend. Down to 53° now.

[OKwx2k4]

I'm on Dauphin Island, Alabama at the moment but looked like areas back home improved in the rainfall department over the last couple of days. Saw Facebook posts of over 2.75 inches falling near my home. Certainly a blessing going into the 4th to have nice moist ground there again. I'll be heading back home late tonight or early Sunday morning.

[Tom]

It's not quite wet enough, but it's certainly better at showing the wetter corridor from Mason City to Cedar Rapids

I think this map is a bit more accurate...

 

 

 

Farmer's are going to get a nice soaking in IL/IN...

[Tom]

It was a fairly cool night last night...had the smell of wood burning when I woke up and had to close the window bc it got kinda chilly in my room.  Thick overcast ATM, but looks to clear just in time for a perfect boating day today on the Chain!  

 

Enjoy the 4th of July weekend everyone...#Fireworks #Freedom...'Merica!!!!

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Hawkeye]

It really should be a very pleasant weekend.  We won't see rain, but the cloud shield will keep us cool.

[OKwx2k4]

I hope everyone has a great 4th tomorrow! Don't know how many more times I'll be checking in between now and Tuesday. Be safe and have fun everyone!

[Hawkeye]

The signal is definitely there for multiple storm clusters mid to late week around here, all late at night as always.  There can't be a place on Earth that gets more of their winter snow and summer storms at night than eastern Iowa.

[Tom]

Happy 4th of July!!!  It's a rather cloudy start to the day with a thick overcast.  Hope the clouds thin out later in the day but it doesn't look promising.  Say good bye to the tranquil weather pattern and the cooler, drier air mass we have been enjoying.  

 

A summery and stormy "Ring of Fire" pattern is set to target many of us on here beginning in the Plains tomorrow.  We need the rain and it will be welcomed.

 

Enjoy the Fireworks tonight!  

[Tom]

GFS and Euro not on board where the heaviest rains shall fall this week.  Below is the 00z Euro map...much farther south than where the GFS is painting the heaviest band of precip.

 

http://weather2020.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/07/6-2-640x445.png

 

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016070412/gfs_apcpn_ncus_17.png

[Thunder98]

Chippewa Falls, WI has the perfect summer weather forecast!

 

 

 

 

[Geos]

Hope everyone had a great 4th of July weekend. It was great weather this weekend. Cloudy today, but that was fine. Better than a scorching day. Had a few really light showers this evening, which was odd, but welcome.

 

High temp for tomorrow knocked down to 79° from 85°.

[Tom]

Chippewa Falls, WI has the perfect summer weather forecast!

 

image.png

 

image.png

Home of Leinenkugel's Summer Shandy beer...gosh I love the Grapefruit one...ahh, so refreshing on a warm summer night..

[OKwx2k4]

Home of Leinenkugel's Summer Shandy beer...gosh I love the Grapefruit one...ahh, so refreshing on a warm summer night..

Heard those were good. May need to investigate them. Lol

[Geos]

Looking forward to this MCS later tonight. 

 

[Thunder98]

Severe thunderstorms and heavy rain are in this MCS.

 

Eau Claire, WI so far has gotten 1.32" of rain in just 1 hour!

[Tom]

Looks like Madison is going to get rocked tonight...James area in N IA got a good storm out of this MCS...hoping it holds together so we can get some beneficial rains overnight.

[Geos]

Looks like Madison is going to get rocked tonight...James area in N IA got a good storm out of this MCS...hoping it holds together so we can get some beneficial rains overnight.

 

looks like ETA will be between 2-3am for us. Instead of after 4am like the HRRR was showing.

 

[Hawkeye]

We got a real nice storm early this morning.  The far north side received over 2 inches of rain and the airport, south of the city, had a 60 mph wind gust.  In between, I got 50+ mph wind and a lot of lightning.  Maybe we can do this again on Thursday..

 

Update: I picked up 0.98" of rain.

[Tom]

It was quite the electric storm last night.  Plenty of boomers and heavy rains accompanied these storms (general 1-2") along with some strong winds that knocked out power in the S/SW burbs (max 60mph).  It actually rained for 3-4 hours straight which helped it soak into the soil much better than a 30 min torrential rainfall.

 

Some cool lighting strikes...

 

Trump Tower...

 

Sears Tower...

 

 

 

 

At the peak, almost 3,000 lightning strikes were recorded in 15 minutes!

 

[Tom]

Here is a very neat loop of Super Typhoon Nepartak churning in the Pacific heading towards Taiwan...

 

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/loop.asp?data_folder=loop_of_the_day/20160706000000&number_of_images_to_display=100&loop_speed_ms=100

[OKwx2k4]

Here is a very neat loop of Super Typhoon Nepartak churning in the Pacific heading towards Taiwan...

 

 

 

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/loop.asp?data_folder=loop_of_the_day/20160706000000&number_of_images_to_display=100&loop_speed_ms=100

That's really cool!

[Geos]

Picked up 0.46" of rain this morning. Not a great amount like areas south got, but it will do some good for the plants.

 

4km NAM showing more storms later.

 

[Geos]

Nasty line heading towards the Mississippi River Valley downstate.

 

[chances14]

meanwhile here in drought island Michigan....

 

 

http://i.imgur.com/5Kf4tEQ.gif

 

http://i.imgur.com/zLBOJ2F.png