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July 2016 Observation and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest


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With the QBO appearing to have skipped over it's negative phase, we should have a +QBO this winter, which now favors much more in the way of NPAC based blocking. So I'd actually agree with this, as of now.

 

Great news about the QBO.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Thanks!  Looks like upwelling has commenced along the West Coast.  Inevitable with the huge positive pressure anoms over the GOA.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Out of stubbornness meaning you think it could be weaker?

Possibly somewhat weaker, though nothing substantial enough to matter quantitatively, in my opinion. We're talking fractions of a degree in a localized area of the Pacific. :)

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Great news about the QBO.

The QBO is doing something unprecedented in our period of record. Timing of progressive shear stress maxes is all wrong. No one knows what it means yet, but our theory regarding the workings of the QBO is in jeopardy right now.

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With the QBO appearing to have skipped over it's negative phase, we should have a +QBO this winter, which now favors much more in the way of NPAC based blocking. So I'd actually agree with this, as of now.

 

Don't you think it's a little early to determine this, though?

A forum for the end of the world.

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The QBO is doing something unprecedented in our period of record. Timing of progressive shear stress maxes is all wrong. No one knows what it means yet, but our theory regarding the workings of the QBO is in jeopardy right now.

 

Nice to hear that.  In the case of the NW we need a big atmospheric shakeup and that appears to be happening.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Don't you think it's a little early to determine this, though?

I think it's almost set in stone. It usually takes 4+ months for a coherent downwelling wave to reach 50mb from 30mb, and westerlies are strengthening and dominating from 30mb all the way to the stratopause (1mb). Expect to see 50mb go westerly again either in the June update or July update.

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Nice to hear that. In the case of the NW we need a big atmospheric shakeup and that appears to be happening.

If this isn't a shakeup, I don't know what is. Everyone who studies the QBO is baffled right now.

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The 12z ECMWF has 850mb temperature anomalies easily surpassing -20F over the PNW in the long range. About -13C over OR, almost -30F. Wow.

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Seeing the flip to -NAO on guidance, thought it'd be a good time to bring this up.

 

In July, the NAO has a strong relationship with the NPAC. A -NAO will (usually) constructively feed back with a -PNA due to the nature of wave spacing at this time of year, so a -NAO generally promotes western troughing.

 

Here's a visual of the NAO correlation w/ 850mb temperatures & 500mb height anomalies in July, color bars reversed to highlight negative phase state:

 

image.gifimage.gif

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To elaborate on the above post, one might wonder what would lead to/favor a -NAO in July.

 

In developing La Niña Julys, the degree of dateline forcing, contrasted with the 90E/90W forcing gradient, is a good indicator of NAO behavior in the long run.

 

More dateline subsidence/maturing -WC years and their NAO aggregate:

 

image.jpegimage.jpeg

 

Versus developing La Niña Julys with dateline forcing/opposite 90E/90W gradient:

 

image.pngimage.png

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Moving through July, both model guidance and seasonally applicable analogs favor dateline subsidence propagating out of the far WPAC. This would favor a -NAO for July of 2016, which should constructively feed back with the NPAC wavetrain to raise heights over the NPAC as a whole. This, in the long run, favors a tendency towards western North American troughing, and SE ridging.

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Another great day... mostly sunny now and 73 with a dewpoint of 60 and a few cumulus clouds for decoration.

Partly to mostly sunny here as well and 73. Not too shabby! Time to head to the lake for part two of our long weekend fun!
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Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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Well the Weather sure has turned to crap for 4th... *Sigh* chilly and possibly damp.. Gross!

 

 

Hoping we can hang on to some decent weather in Couer D'Alene.   The MOS guidance is down to 75 now... but dry and mostly sunny.   Probably breezy though and it will feel cooler with dewpoints in the 40s.  

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Was out in the boat this evening and could see the doom and gloom of the thick low clouds coming in from the west. Yuck. Can we order up last summer again!!

Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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Troughing in the July 1-10 period.   Not what I wanted but there was a fairly strong signal for it in our local weather in Nino to Nina years.

 

I would be surprised if it goes much beyond the next week... despite what the models show.    We should transition back to dry, stable, and considerably more sunny pattern by 7/11 or 7/12.   

 

I also think there is a fairly good chance that the second half July averages warmer than the first half.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Troughing in the July 1-10 period. Not what I wanted but there was a fairly strong signal for it in our local weather in Nino to Nina years.

 

I would be surprised if it goes much beyond the next week... despite what the models show. We should transition back to dry, stable, and considerably more sunny pattern by 7/11 or 7/12.

 

I also think there is a fairly good chance that the second half July averages warmer than the first half.

I'm thinking maybe a brief reprieve somewhere in the middle followed by more troughing through the remainder of July. The systematic progression back into the background state has been regularly occurring more quickly than I've anticipated since mid/late May.

 

The idea of a brief reprieve is supported via residual poleward AAM/WAF propagation behind the CCKW/MJO wave in the EPAC. That will have to cycle through.

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I'm thinking maybe a brief reprieve somewhere in the middle followed by more troughing through the remainder of July. The systematic progression back into the background state has been regularly occurring more quickly than I've anticipated since mid/late May.

 

The idea of a brief reprieve is supported via residual poleward AAM/WAF propagation behind the CCKW/MJO wave in the EPAC. That will have to cycle through.

 

 

Want to make a wager that the second half of July averages warmer than the first half of July at SEA?    ;)

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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That said, it seems whenever modeling latches onto the idea of extended ridging in the long range, it ultimately fails to amount to much by the time we get there, or it winds up offshore. I suspect sustained ridging of any kind will be very tough to pull off going forward.

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Want to make a wager that the second half of July averages warmer than the first half of July at SEA? ;)

If the latest modeling is correct, most of the region will have at least a -10F departure by July 10th, with more below average temperatures to come. Even considering the high possibly of another round of heavy troughing later in the month, I'd say no to this one. :)

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That said, it seems whenever modeling latches onto the idea of extended ridging in the long range, it ultimately fails to amount to much by the time we get there, or it winds up offshore. I suspect sustained ridging of any kind will be very tough to pull off going forward.

 

 

I am not saying ridging or a heat wave.   But not the troughing of the next week either.   

 

Remember you just said a few days ago that my call for early July troughing would bust and it would be ridgy until July 10-15.   I said troughing July 1-10 and then turning warmer with a flat ridging or very weak troughing pattern.   No crash after July 15th... going the other way compared to July 1-10.  

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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If the latest modeling is correct, most of the region will have at least a -10F departure by July 10th, with more below average temperatures to come. Even considering the high possibly of another round of heavy troughing later in the month, I'd say no to this one. :)

 

 

SEA and PDX will be nowhere close to -a 10 departure in 8 days.

 

In fact... the WRF shows it being not too far from normal the next 3 days.

 

 

 

Tomorrow is normal...

 

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/wrfrt/data/current_gfs/images_d3/wa_tsfc.24.0000.gif

 

Monday and Tuesday are only a little below normal from Seattle southward... 

 

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/wrfrt/data/current_gfs/images_d3/wa_tsfc.48.0000.gif

 

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/wrfrt/data/current_gfs/images_d3/wa_tsfc.72.0000.gif

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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I am not saying ridging or a heat wave. But not the troughing of the next week either.

 

Remember you just said a few days ago that my call for early July troughing would bust and it would be ridgy until July 10-15. I said troughing July 1-10 and then turning warmer with a flat ridging or very weak troughing pattern. No crash after July 15th... going the other way compared to July 1-10.

Lol, your initial prediction was for a few troughy days in early July (I have the quote). That's not even counting the blowtorch July forecast you made earlier. You're always flip flopping dude, at least I own it when I'm wrong.

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You're using the WRF GFS nest for 2m departures? Interesting choice given it's the most warm-biased at 2m of any suite or extracted nest.

 

I'll stick with the ECMWF/EPS.

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Lol, your initial prediction was for a few troughy days in early July (I have the quote). That's not even counting the blowtorch July forecast you made earlier. You're always flip flopping dude, at least I own it when I'm wrong.

 

 

You cannot back out of this one!  Just within the last week you said my call would bust and it would be ridgy until July 10-15 and then crash.   At least I am adjusting quicker than you.    :lol:

 

I have been saying July 1-10 for quite awhile now.    You have been saying it would crash in mid-July for quite awhile now.  

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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You're using the WRF GFS nest for 2m departures? Interesting choice given it's the most warm-biased at 2m of any suite or extracted nest.

 

I'll stick with the ECMWF/EPS.

 

 

Its not bad at all unless there is a strong inversion.   With an inversion its terrible... which might lead to its warm bias overall.   

 

It will do pretty well in this situation with no inversion.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Stick to your guns... lets wager!

 

You clearly thought the second half of July would be far colder than the first half just a few days ago.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Let's not forget that, as recently as a week ago, this upcoming troughy period looked like a multi-rex block/ridge pattern. Every time models depict an excursion from the background state, it ends up being shorter than expected, or it fails altogether.

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Stick to your guns... lets wager!

 

You clearly thought the second half of July would be far colder than the first half just a few days ago.

Wager what? Take a chill pill.

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Its not bad at all unless there is a strong inversion. With an inversion its terrible... which might lead to its warm bias overall.

 

It will do pretty well in this situation with no inversion.

I'll stick with the ECMWF suite.

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