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July 2016 Observation and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest


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Wager what? Take a chill pill.

 

 

I say that the second half of July will average warmer than the first half of July at SEA.

 

The opposite of what you were saying even last week.  

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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If the latest modeling is correct, most of the region will have at least a -10F departure by July 10th, with more below average temperatures to come. Even considering the high possibly of another round of heavy troughing later in the month, I'd say no to this one. :)

-10f for the first 10 days of the month?

 

Is this -30c Phil making a return appearance?

My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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-10F departures for the first 10 Days of July would be a tall order. Probably a little above average thru 2 days here. You would need 8 days of low to mid 60s / mid 40s type of days.

Not my forecast, just describing the ECMWF/EPS solution(s) verbatim.

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I'll stick with the ECMWF suite.

 

 

Fair enough.    I can just get more detail with the WRF since I don't pay for the ECMWF.    

 

SEA and PDX might not even be below normal at all for July through 7/4.    Going to be hard to go from normal to -10 in 6 days.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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-10f for the first 10 days of the month?

 

Is this -30c Phil making a return appearance?

Did I say I was forecasting -10F departure by 7/10? Nice try. ;)

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-10f for the first 10 days of the month?

 

Is this -30c Phil making a return appearance?

 

 

The -30F Phil made an appearance today.    :)

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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I say that the second half of July will average warmer than the first half of July at SEA.

 

The opposite of what you were saying even last week.

My timing might be slow (yet again), but my monthly temperature forecast will probably be better than yours. :)

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Did I say I was forecasting -10F departure by 7/10? Nice try. ;)

Just asking.

 

Down boy.

 

Seems odd you'd even mention it especially considering 20% of said period has already been at or a little above average. Incredulous.

 

Sometimes common sense is king.

My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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My timing might be slow (yet again), but my monthly temperature forecast will probably be better than yours. :)

 

Yes... that might be true.   Lower overall for the entire month might be better.

 

But you have said there is a big crash coming in mid-July.   This never made sense to me based on our local history.

 

I think you saw hints of what is actually going to happen in the next week and misread the timing.   

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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If I'm "-30F Phil", you're "Blowtorch July" Tim. :)

 

 

I said that once flippantly.    I backed way off when came time to actually forecast the month.    ;)

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Yes... that might be true. Lower overall for the entire month might be better.

 

But you have said there is a big crash coming in mid-July. This never made sense to me based on our local history.

 

I think you saw hints of what is actually going to happen in the next week and misread the timing.

Well, my timing was (mostly) based on a combination of analog tendencies and current forcing progression. However, given the poleward circulations/U-wind belts seem to have flipped into Niña mode already, I guess I underestimated the systematic intertial tendency to return to the aforementioned background state.

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I will say the pattern on the long range modeling looked weird to me, so I suspected something was up/missing. Overall, being a week too slow doesn't bother me much, as long as the pattern resembles what I'd forecasted (which it does, so far).

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Accuweather's super accurate 90-day forecast is on team Tim for a turnaround after July 10th.

 

http://www.accuweather.com/en/us/portland-or/97209/july-weather/350473

That's been terrible here all summer, FWIW.

 

#TurnaroundTim would be a good hashtag here. No wiggling out of this one.

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Just asking.

 

Down boy.

 

Seems odd you'd even mention it especially considering 20% of said period has already been at or a little above average. Incredulous.

 

Sometimes common sense is king.

The GFS is around -7F regionwide through 7/12. What does a few degrees matter in regards to the context of my original post?

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I just found it hilarious they have a forecast for 90 days. With daily highs and lows, does anyone actually buy into that crap?

I'm more curious as to how they formulate it.

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The GFS is around -7F regionwide through 7/12. What does a few degrees matter in regards to the context of my original post?

None of it matters. But -10 by the 10th at any westside locations isn't happening. It's a solidly cool pattern coming up but lows are not going to stray too far from average.

 

Like I said, common sense.

My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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Backing off of something you said you were sticking with huh?

 

 

I think that I adjusted quicker.   

 

Early July troughing certainly happening despite being told I was completely wrong for the last couple weeks and the big crash would happen around 7/15.  

 

The second half July will average warmer than the first half... the opposite of the prediction for a crash by 7/15.     Remember to bring this post up at the end of July.      :)

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Folks saying "summer over" - I don't think August will be the same as July. Just a hunch. We always gotta have one or two waves in our summers.

Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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Folks saying "summer over" - I don't think August will be the same as July. Just a hunch. We always gotta have one or two waves in our summers.

Hope you're right, I think I was the only one in the anomaly contest to go warmer in August than July. (for SEA and PDX) 

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Hope you're right, I think I was the only one in the anomaly contest to go warmer in August than July. (for SEA and PDX) 

 

 

1998 has been the top analog for several runs now.   

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Mostly sunny here this morning.  Looking back at yesterday, YYJ managed a +7F departure, that kind of came out of nowhere.  All in all, the Canada day weekend turned out fairly nice, after those light showers moved thru Friday Morning. 

 

 

Wednesday now looks like another warm day in this troughy period.

 

Although its interesting to note that from Portland south there is not really a cool, cloudy day until maybe Friday.   They seem to get into at least the mid 70s down there each day this week.   Maybe 80 on Wednesday.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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In an apparent 4th of July miracle the drizzle stopped and we now have mostly sunny skies!!

 

 

Models showed this front dissolving quickly this morning and skies clearing for the last several days.  

 

Here is late this afternoon per the WRF:

 

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/wrfrt/data/2016070312/images_d3/intcld.12.0000.gif

 

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/wrfrt/data/2016070312/images_d3/wa_tsfc.12.0000.gif

 

 

 

The WRF does very well unless there is an inversion in place.   And we clearly have scoured out the inversion from earlier this week.  

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Will the rain hold off tomorrow though is the question

 

 

Tomorrow afternoon per the WRF... looks like Seattle southward or east of the Cascades is the place to be.

 

 

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/wrfrt/data/current_gfs/images_d3/intcld.36.0000.gif

 

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/wrfrt/data/current_gfs/images_d3/wa_tsfc.36.0000.gif

 

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/wrfrt/data/current_gfs/images_d3/wa_pcp3.36.0000.gif

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Only -9?

 

 

I think PDX might be close to normal still on 7/7.    Going to be hard to score a -10 for the month just 3 days later!

 

EDIT: They are at +3.5 after the first 2 days of that period.     Could end up a little above normal still at 7/10.   

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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I think PDX might be close to normal still on 7/7.    Going to be hard to score a -10 for the month just 3 days later!

 

EDIT: They are at +3.5 after the first 2 days of that period.     Could end up a little above normal still at 7/10.   

 

PDX is +2.5 through yesterday.

 

The -10F comment was pretty silly, but it definitely looks like a solidly cool period upcoming.

 

Highly unlikely they are sitting above normal for the month by the 10th, unless something changes drastically between now and then.

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Wonderful few days at Clear Lake, Oregon. Highs in the low-mid 70s both days with lows in the low 40s Friday morning and around 50 yesterday morning.

 

Spent most of Friday kayaking all over the lake. There are some incredible scenes in the cold, clear water there.

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