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July 2016 Observation and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest


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I think July / August will go down as below normal when looking at the big picture.  The relative warmth over the Western lowlands has been the result of no days managing to hang onto low clouds all day.  The onshore flow has been too strong in a lot of cases.

 

I was being a little sarcastic. It is entertaining to imagine those who are selling the warm spots pretty hard suddenly flipping sides when that way of looking at it is presented.

 

I think the dearth of a stable heat low east of the Cascades to draw in marine air has had a lot to do with it up there. I also think that this pattern has equalized temperatures in the Portland and Seattle area a bit more than usual for the summer, for whatever reason. That shakes out to slight positive anomalies for you guys and slight negative anomalies for us.

 

Cooler 850s on the whole, especially up there, have also mixed out the marine layer more than usual during onshore flow episodes. 850 temps being a bit warmer down here has perhaps helped us have a thicker marine layer at times. Thick marine layer days are dependent on some degree of inversion.

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+3.6F

 

Absolutely bizarre.  Not many places that can manage that kind of warmth with an anomalously cool air mass dominating during the period. :lol:

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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I think the lack of heat east of the cascades drawing in marine air has had a lot to do with it up there. I also think that this pattern has equalized temperatures in the Portland and Seattle area a bit more than usual for the summer, for whatever reason. That shakes out to slight positive anomalies for you guys and slight negative anomalies for us.

 

Cooler 850s on the whole, especially up there, has also mixed out the marine layer more than usual during onshore flow episodes. 850 temps being warmer down here has perhaps helped us have a thicker marine layer at times.

 

 

Yes to all.   Everything here is what I have been saying.  It makes sense.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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I was being a little sarcastic. It is interesting to imagine those who are selling the warm spots pretty hard suddenly flipping sides when that way of looking at it is entertained.

 

I think the lack of a stable heat low east of the Cascades to draw in marine air has had a lot to do with it up there. I also think that this pattern has equalized temperatures in the Portland and Seattle area a bit more than usual for the summer, for whatever reason. That shakes out to slight positive anomalies for you guys and slight negative anomalies for us.

 

Cooler 850s on the whole, especially up there, has also mixed out the marine layer more than usual during onshore flow episodes. 850 temps being warmer down here has perhaps helped us have a thicker marine layer at times.

 

It really illustrates how low level conditions profoundly effect our temps during the summer.  We just haven't been able to hold onto any kind of an inversion this summer.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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It really illustrates how low level conditions profoundly effect our temps during the summer.  We just haven't been able to hold onto any kind of an inversion this summer.

 

 

You should be happy.   We have been close to normal without gloomy and damp.    

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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This graphic clearly shows how strange the positive temperature anoms are for the Western lowlands this summer.  Here is the 850mb temperature anomaly composite for summer (June 20 to present).

 

 

post-222-0-55746300-1469513116_thumb.gif

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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It really illustrates how low level conditions profoundly effect our temps during the summer.  We just haven't been able to hold onto any kind of an inversion this summer.

 

It has been a perfect storm of 850mb temps being sufficiently cool for lots more mixing/ less marine inversions than usual, but still mild enough to keep us from cashing in on big time cool anomalies like you would find in a classically cool summer pattern (2011, 1993, et al.)

 

The east side sure has done well though. Down here too, to a lesser extent. It seems we have actually been as cloudy if not cloudier than you guys, which is no doubt unusual for July.

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This graphic clearly shows how strange the positive temperature anoms are for the Western lowlands this summer.  Here is the 850mb temperature anomaly composite for summer (June 20 to present).

 

Phil has done a good job with the overall pattern this month/summer so far. Those who went kneejerk warm for certain locations essentially got lucky thanks to some microscale quirks he probably didn't foresee.

 

There is still August....

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This graphic clearly shows how strange the positive temperature anoms are for the Western lowlands this summer.  Here is the 850mb temperature anomaly composite for summer (June 20 to present).

 

 

Its not strange... we just explained it.

 

Something Phil has not quite figured out since he thinks cooler than normal 850mb temps automatically correlates to below normal temperatures in the Puget Sound area and the opposite has been true on many days.   Its the source of our endless disconnect.    

 

And why using local history in our analog years with similar patterns as a guide actually worked well without even knowing why at the start.   I also think warm SSTAs offshore have helped to keep the nights a little warmer.   I did assume that would keep averages up.   

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00Z ECMWF is strange... looks like marine layer gets all the way inland well to the north of Seattle and to the Cascades but then still shows temps between 75-80 by early afternoon with the marine layer still in place.   

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Phil has done a good job with the overall pattern this month/summer so far. Those who went kneejerk warm for certain locations essentially got lucky thanks to some microscale quirks he probably didn't foresee.

 

There is still August....

Thanks. Unfortunately the mesoscale stuff is basically impossible to forecast at-range.

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Thanks. Unfortunately the mesoscale stuff is basically impossible to forecast at-range.

 

 

Just a quirk of our maritime climate.

 

But it not one station either.   

 

The models have now compromised for Saturday.   00Z ECMWF is cooler.   Should be in the upper 70s in Seattle.   Another day that is a little above normal here and cooler than normal at PDX.

 

Interestingly... Sunday is now warmer than the 12Z run.  Both days might end up a little above normal in Seattle.

 

And when I say warmer... its in relation to the previous run.    It can be warmer and still be below normal at the 850mb level.   Make sense?

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Troughs are not digging all the way into the PNW on the 00Z ECMWF early next week.

 

Monday looks pretty warm again near 80... and totally sunny.   

 

http://stream.ecmwf.int/data/atls09/data/data01/scratch/ps2png-atls09-95e2cf679cd58ee9b4db4dd119a05a8d-iDitfb.png

 

Basically agrees with the GFS at 240 hours... sort of troughy and yet sort of warm.

 

http://stream.ecmwf.int/data/atls20/data/data01/scratch/ps2png-atls20-95e2cf679cd58ee9b4db4dd119a05a8d-R24UZK.png

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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The ECMWF is pretty insane for next week.  Basically a pattern that would deliver very cold temps in the winter.  As it is the pattern being shown could bring some interesting low temps to some areas.  As has been the case for much of the summer the surface high complex off the coast is forecast to be off the charts anomalously positive.  Looks to me like cold ENSO has the pattern by the balls.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Phil has done a good job with the overall pattern this month/summer so far. Those who went kneejerk warm for certain locations essentially got lucky thanks to some microscale quirks he probably didn't foresee.

 

There is still August....

 

It appears the trough position will be slightly different in August.  Shorter days and lower sun angle could change up the equation also.  This is after all the summer equivalent of February. :lol:

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Marine layer spreading inland quickly this morning... exactly as shown by the ECMWF.  

 

The WRF was too weak with the push.   

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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GFS has trended a little weaker and warmer with the weekend trough over the last 4 runs.   I opened 4 tabs and ran through each one at the 500mb and 850mb level.   

850mb temps go from about 19C on Thursday to 14C by Saturday... so we don't really have a heat wave and big crash but rather warm and then less warm.   

 

14C is probably a touch below normal so Phil's maps will be show red crashing to blue... but the reality is more muted than that for sure.    The weekend 850mb temps have gone 10C to 14C over the last few runs.   All of which is blue on 850mb anomaly maps so its probably hard to see that its warmed up.    Just trying to bridge the gap between the different views.

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GFS has trended a little weaker and warmer with the weekend trough over the last 4 runs. I opened 4 tabs and ran through each one at the 500mb and 850mb level.

850mb temps go from about 19C on Thursday to 14C by Saturday... so we don't really have a heat wave and big crash but rather warm and then less warm.

 

14C is probably a touch below normal so Phil's maps will be show red crashing to blue... but the reality is more muted than that for sure. The weekend 850mb temps have gone 10C to 14C over the last few runs. All of which is blue on 850mb anomaly maps so its probably hard to see that its warmed up. Just trying to bridge the gap between the different views.

I don't see anything close to 14C at 850mbs for Saturday or Sunday afternoon. More like 10c dropping to 8c, at least on the 6z GFS.
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I don't see anything close to 14C at 850mbs for Saturday or Sunday afternoon. More like 10c dropping to 8c, at least on the 6z GFS.

My error on Sunday. Did not refresh. 14C down here Saturday though.

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Models still figuring out the depth of this trough... 

 

Sunday afternoon per 00Z run:

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/00/namer/500_vort_ht/gfs_namer_144_500_vort_ht.gif

 

 

And per 12Z run:

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/12/namer/500_vort_ht/gfs_namer_132_500_vort_ht.gif

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Phil has done a good job with the overall pattern this month/summer so far. Those who went kneejerk warm for certain locations essentially got lucky thanks to some microscale quirks he probably didn't foresee.

 

There is still August....

 

Agreed. His tendency is to go a little overboard, and he over-emphasized the troughing/cool weather in July, but for most the month it actually was cooler than normal for most the region. Micro-scale differences aside, he mostly had the big picture right.

 

People have to remember, when it's all said and done, even the monthly 850 anomalies won't be that much cooler than normal, and it will end up as an essentially "normal" month overall for the region at the surface. Earlier in the month, when the 850s were legitimately cool for awhile, it was below normal most places.

 

That being said, Phil was a bit off for the general pattern progression for the month, and Tim was closer there. Credit where it's due. Not that it's anywhere near as important as either of them think.  :rolleyes:

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A forum for the end of the world.

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Agreed. His tendency is to go a little overboard, and he over-emphasized the troughing/cool weather in July, but for most the month it actually was cooler than normal for most the region. Micro-scale differences aside, he mostly had the big picture right. People have to remember, when it's all said and done, even the monthly 850 anomalies won't be that much cooler than normal, and it will end up as an essentially "normal" month overall for the region at the surface.

 

That being said, Phil was a bit off for the general pattern progression for the month, and Tim was closer there. Credit where it's due. Not that it's anywhere near as important as either of them think. :rolleyes:

I agree with this take on it.

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On phone all day... ECMWF has status quo perfect for Seattle next week. Lots of sun and mid to upper 70s. Goldilocks summer.

 

Would prefer a rainy second week of August since we will be in MN and not able to water.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Skies cleared up in a hurry. Clouds were nice this morning to get some things done around the yard. 

 

Low 57°, now at 73°.

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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Well how about that, the ECMWF busted warm @ SEA today. Actually, it busted warm everywhere. Had PDX at 86, EUG at 89, SEA at 80, and OLM at 82.

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Well how about that, the ECMWF busted warm @ SEA today. Actually, it busted warm everywhere. Had PDX at 86, EUG at 89, SEA at 80, and OLM at 82.

Marine layer this morning. Same thing happened on 7/16. The one exception to the rule at SEA. And it still got to at least 77 there.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Marine layer this morning. Same thing happened on 7/16. The one exception to the rule at SEA. And it still got to at least 77 there.

All of its busts have involved overestimating or underestimating the marine layer, see the frequent warm busts @ PDX. There is no "rule" or inherent cold bias involved.

 

SEA will probably come in at 78/57 today.

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