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Preliminary Discussion For Upcoming 2016-2017 Fall and Winter Season


Tom

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Who's ready for some Autumn/Winter weather talk???  As we are about to endure some excessive heat for much of the central CONUS, I think it's a good idea to discuss ideas that are being thrown out there for this year's anticipated La Nina...or...possible La Nada???  It's quite obvious the equatorial pacific has transitioned dramatically out of a historic strong El Nino.  Conversely, colder waters have surfaced along the equator and La Nada conditions are becoming present, but not official just yet.

 

For those who know me, I'm a firm believer in the LRC and find it a very useful tool for long range forecasting.  With that being said, what are the models showing for mid/late Autumn when the LRC beings developing???  The first initial changes start showing up near Alaska and the northern parts of our continent in late Sept.  It's not until October we see a brand new weather pattern cycle develop, of which, could last anywhere from 40-60 days.  Having said that, lets take a look at what the CFSv2 is currently showing for October and November.

 

Meteorological Autumn begins in about 45 days, so I think it's a good idea to dig into the data and see what may be in store.  I'll post some maps in the next post.

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The CFSv2, along with basically every other global climate model, are in firm agreement that a strong trough will develop south of the Aleutians near 50N/150W.  If that's true, this is a txt book trough/ridge alignment that produces a strong NW NAMER ridge.

 

Today's weekly run of the CFSv2 illustrates the idea of this hemispheric pattern.

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/imagesInd3/glbz700SeaInd2.gif

It continues through late Autumn into early Winter...

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/imagesInd3/glbz700SeaInd3.gif

 

 

Temp Anomalies for October and November show a dominant warm ring along the entire west coast of North America.

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/imagesInd3/glbT2mMonInd3.gif

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/imagesInd3/glbT2mMonInd4.gif

 

Check out how cold Siberia and the Arctic regions are getting.  Could a cooler than normal summer be giving it a head start???  How will Dr. Judah Cohen's Snow Advance Index (SAI) look like this year???  Please feel free to comment and divulge your ideas. 

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The CFSv2 continues to shift the cold pool west and south on each run it seems for late Autumn/Winter.  Here is today's weekly update on both the 700mb pattern and ground temps.


 


http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/imagesInd3/glbT2mSeaInd4.gif


http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/imagesInd3/glbT2mSeaInd5.gif


It seemingly wants to show winter hanging on into March...


 


http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/imagesInd3/glbT2mSeaInd6.gif


 


The trough south of the Aleutians begins getting established in October and is trying to go strong in November.  Key indicators of what we may need to pay attention to as the LRC develops.


 


http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/imagesInd3/glbz700MonInd3.gif


http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/imagesInd3/glbz700MonInd4.gif


 


The warm PDO is definitely having an effect on the model as a strong signal for a NW NAMER ridge is showing up, along side a -AO.


 


http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/imagesInd3/glbz700SeaInd4.gif


http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/imagesInd3/glbz700SeaInd5.gif


http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/imagesInd3/glbz700SeaInd6.gif


 


 


Weak La Nina's or even La Nada's tend to have an active storm track near the Midwest/Lakes region.  So when I see it showing these precip anomalies, I am eager to see how this pattern evolves in early Autumn.


 


 


http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/imagesInd3/usPrecSeaInd3.gif


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It doesn't make sense the CFS is forecasting a Ninoish pattern in the Autumn when we have clearly trsnsitioned out of El Nino.  I think if there is an Aleutian low in the autumn it is highly likely that will reverse to Aleutian / GOA ridging during the winter.  A sustained Aleutian / GOA trough is highly unlikely with cold ENSO.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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It doesn't make sense the CFS is forecasting a Ninoish pattern in the Autumn when we have clearly trsnsitioned out of El Nino.  I think if there is an Aleutian low in the autumn it is highly likely that will reverse to Aleutian / GOA ridging during the winter.  A sustained Aleutian / GOA trough is highly unlikely with cold ENSO.

What gives it some credence, is the JAMSTEC model showing a similar result based on SST's during the Autumn period.

 

http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/d1/iod/2007/forecast/ssta.glob.SON2016.1jul2016.gif

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It doesn't make sense the CFS is forecasting a Ninoish pattern in the Autumn when we have clearly trsnsitioned out of El Nino. I think if there is an Aleutian low in the autumn it is highly likely that will reverse to Aleutian / GOA ridging during the winter. A sustained Aleutian / GOA trough is highly unlikely with cold ENSO.

It is, however, more likely with neutral ENSO and +PDO. I'm not really on the extreme Niña team due to being shown evidence recently as to why a La Niña of that magnitude seems very unlikely. Could we dip to -.5 and remain there? Sure, but I believe the extreme Niña required to flip the PDO simply won't occur.

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It is, however, more likely with neutral ENSO and +PDO. I'm not really on the extreme Niña team due to being shown evidence recently as to why a La Niña of that magnitude seems very unlikely. Could we dip to -.5 and remain there? Sure, but I believe the extreme Niña required to flip the PDO simply won't occur.

 

That will be interesting to see.  The latest update shows Nino 3 and 3.4 have dropped to -0.6.  The PDO has dropped due to the recent strong GOA ridge, but it remains to be seen how significant that will be.  I'm from the NW and we are beyond tired of watching the rest of the nation have all of the fun in recent years.  It seems like no combination works for us anymore.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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That will be interesting to see.  The latest update shows Nino 3 and 3.4 have dropped to -0.6.  The PDO has dropped due to the recent strong GOA ridge, but it remains to be seen how significant that will be.  I'm from the NW and we are beyond tired of watching the rest of the nation have all of the fun in recent years.  It seems like no combination works for us anymore.

 

Snow_wiz, I have to sympathize with you on that part right there!   

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Snow_wiz, I have to sympathize with you on that part right there!   

 

There were seriously no notable blizzards in your area from 1918 to 1967?  It is kind of interesting some decades during that run rocked in this region.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Models are depicting a return to very strong GOA ridging by the end of the month after just a brief lowering of heights / surface pressure over the next week.  That feature could be poised to become the default pattern for autumn.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Here's a little update on the latest CFSv2 weekly run for the Autumn period.  Analogs suggest a warmer than normal look for much of the nation.  Having said that, it may be trending that way.  Interestingly, the Arctic and Siberia are very cold.

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/imagesInd3/glbT2mSeaInd2.gif

 

 

As we move into Winter, the hemispheric pattern changes.  In fact, the JFM period is getting colder and more widespread.

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/imagesInd3/glbT2mSeaInd4.gif

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/imagesInd3/glbT2mSeaInd5.gif

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/imagesInd3/glbT2mSeaInd6.gif

 

 

850's...

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/imagesInd3/usT850SeaInd5.gif

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/imagesInd3/usT850SeaInd6.gif

 

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There were seriously no notable blizzards in your area from 1918 to 1967?  It is kind of interesting some decades during that run rocked in this region.

 

Tbh, I've not conducted an exhaustive study for SWMI. I know of a large storm that hit SEMI in March of '47 and there may have been another in Jan '45 (war years, so wx made little headlines keep in mind). Whether either of those were "notable" for SWMI or not, remains unconfirmed. I do know for a fact, that for the most part the period from the 30's til the mid-60's was filled with dud winters as far as snowfall goes. If those storms (or others) happened during that era, they were anomalies in their own right.

 

My parent's recollections went back safely to 1930 and the only Big Dog my father spoke of was the Jan '67 storm. Although he was overseas fighting the war in Jan '45 so that does leave that possibility open. A lot of weather site records are sketchy the further back you go, so you have to search old newspaper articles or weather historical links you may stumble on to try and get to the truth. There were likely run-of-the-mill events (12") and I know of a larger storm or two that fringed SWMI but were Big Dogs just south (in N. Indiana) during that period.  

 

So yeah, it's totally possible that this area went a long time between historic storms. 

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Anyone else notice its getting dark a bit earlier now?? I was driving home at about 8:30 and really noticed it.

I was thinking the same thing today. My automatic timers need adjustment when they turn on in the house. They turn on a bit late now since the sun is setting earlier around 8:15 (ish).

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For those who don't follow the Global Warming thread on this Forum, I will post this over here as well.  This came from a former NOAA met, Mr. David Dilley, who believes in the natural cyclical nature of our climate.  He delivers his idea of the coming 2 Winters ahead.  I will be subscribing to his company as we get closer to Autumn to see what his predictions will be for the U.S.

 

 

 

Onset of Global Cooling - Harsh Winters Coming Back ?                                           Find out in GWO's Predictions

 

                          The global climate pattern is now transitioning from a global warming cycle (2000 through 2013) to a global cooling long-term cycle.  Both the Arctic and Antarctic entered the next global cooling cycle 3 years ago and have been dramatically cooling since 2013.

 

                          Although due to the El Niño, sea ice in the western Arctic near Alaska and Euro-Straights region near Iceland has diminished during late 2015 into 2016, but it will once again begin freezing more solid and grow during late 2016 and 2017, diminish some in 2018 and then grow tremendously thereafter.

 

                          The sea ice extent is at the greatest values in Antarctic since the 1970s, and was likewise at its greatest extent in the Arctic prior to the 2015-16 El Nino.  The Arctic is already cooling rapidly following the ending of the El Nino and will once again see great ice restoration - and thus much colder winters across the Northern Hemisphere.

 

                          In addition;  the sun has entered a cooler phase - hence conditions much like the period from the 1940 through the 1970s will alter the warm temperatures experienced during the past 12 years.

 

                         For example; aside from this year's El Niño, the northern areas of the United States and Europe has experienced much cooler weather during the prior two winters (2014 and 2015) and much colder than the winter temperatures observed from 2000 through 2013.  Thus the transitioning to a colder climate period must be taken into account.

 

 

As discussed in Mr. Dilley's eBook (Earth's Natural Climate Pulse) that can be read free of charge in the Climate Section, the period from about 1997 through 2012 was the second twin peak of warm global temperatures (1930s was the first).  Twin warm temperature peaks are a signature of all global warming cycles (5 in the past 1,000 years).  The cold winters in some regions of the world and the cooling now taking place in both the Arctic and Antarctic signals the ending of the current global warming cycle.  Every global warming cycle comes like clockwork about every 216 years, and also ends like clockwork.  Rapid cooling of the high Arctic in 2013 and 2014 denotes the ending of the global warming cycle.  Next cycle will be in about 120 years.

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2nd one of these sites where I've seen conflicting frequencies. Makes me wonder..

 

 

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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I brought these cycles up at one point prior to last winter also. I didn't show a published work to back it but if one were to look at both the cycle mentioned above and also their state's 100+ year temperature history during winter, they would notice also that there are 30 year temperature swings that accompany this cycle as well. All evidence points to entering the deep negative territory of the smaller 30 year winter temperature cycle in the next 3 to 5 years possibly as soon as 1 to 2 years. Interesting times are ahead for sure. Thanks for sharing this.

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While comparing the arctic summers of 2013 & 2014 to our current trends, I found some similarities to our recent dip in temps almost at the same time in late July in both of those years.  Which, by the way, both are being used as analogs somewhat for this year.

 

Current state...

 

http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/plots/meanTarchive/meanT_2016.png

 

2013...

 

http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/plots/meanTarchive/meanT_2013.png

 

2014...

 

http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/plots/meanTarchive/meanT_2014.png

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What trends in snowfall is the CFS model showing for the month of October in N.A???  Let's dive in.

October 1st...

 

http://expert-images.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/cfs/2016/07/30/basis00/namk/weas/16100100_3000.gif

 

 

October 23rd...(this is far out as it goes)

 

 

http://expert-images.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/cfs/2016/07/30/basis00/namk/weas/16102300_3000.gif

 

Overdone???  Probably, but its quite the opposite of how last year trended at this time.  If this comes close to what it's showing, most of Canada may have a snow cover by the start of November.  Last year, I think it wasn't until sometime in late November/early December when an appreciable amount of central/eastern Canada was snow covered.

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It was maybe even later than that before there was a normal snow advance across Canada. Should've been one of the many cues I ignored that my winter was going to suck last year.

 

If October even comes close to verifying like that, it's going to be a cold autumn even down here.

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Let's take a look and see what the SST's are forecast to look like by Oct/Nov when the new LRC develops in Autumn and then later in the Winter.  First, let's start by paying attention to the central Pacific.  Overall, the model continues to back off on the idea of a moderate La Nina.  I do believe we will see conditions that favor a weak La Nina, but the question is...does it hold???  Lets dive in.

 

In October, it seems to favor almost a La Nada look, but conditions Nov-Dec favor a weak La Nina...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/cfs-mon/2016073018/cfs-mon_01_ssta_global_3.png

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/cfs-mon/2016073018/cfs-mon_01_ssta_global_4.png

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/cfs-mon/2016073018/cfs-mon_01_ssta_global_5.png

 

 

 

If we turn our attention to the N PAC, this is prob going to be the main driving force to the N.A Winter, IMO.  We have a classic +PDO with a cold pocket of water N/NW of Hawaii, indicative of the late 70's winters.  We haven't seen a SST look like this that had a mature cold pocket in the autumn months which I think should correlate into a stormy pattern for the west coast as well as the central CONUS.  If you have a trough develop N of Hawaii, storms systems will "hand off" under a ridge in NW NAMER.  I think this is where the CFSv2 model is heading.  Check out the precip maps below.

 

In October, a hint of above normal precip near the desert SW and especially in the Midwest/southern plains

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/cfs-mon/2016073018/cfs-mon_01_apcpna_month_global_3.png

 

November turns dry...but in December, the west gets pounded...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/cfs-mon/2016073018/cfs-mon_01_apcpna_month_global_4.png

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/cfs-mon/2016073018/cfs-mon_01_apcpna_month_global_5.png

 

Continues into January...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/cfs-mon/2016073018/cfs-mon_01_apcpna_month_global_6.png

 

This type of pattern certainly won't be a boring one.  Should be fun watching the models come in with new info as we get closer to Autumn.

 

In terms of precip in the Autumn months, when you see the JAMSTEC model somewhat agree with the CFSv2, you gotta take this into consideration.  Especially when you see the model's Dec-Feb forecast...that is like heaven for those in the drought stricken Cali region.

 

http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/d1/iod/2007/forecast/tprep.glob.SON2016.1jul2016.gif

 

http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/d1/iod/2007/forecast/tprep.glob.DJF2017.1jul2016.gif

The NASA/CanSIPS model updates later this week and I'll post the maps when they are available.

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Sitting here looking at the PDO setup of 2014-15 vs now and knowing what happened that year. One could have lots of arguments for a repeat only with the core of the main trough anchored in the central US instead of the eastern 3rd/half. Winter 2003 had a similar matching PDO structure as what we could be looking at as well but there was a Niño in play that year. I've got to get my maps from the 60s and late 70s out and analyze them over the next few weeks also and see what really 'drove the bus' in those years as well.

 

It's really stunning to me to see the torch CFS loving the cold this year. Precip wise is showing a Niña ridge type precip pattern (ridge over the SE with troughing and storms slamming in behind to the NW) in the south and that would imply, again, persistent troughing over the central states. Maybe a snowy south Central and great Lakes is in store this year. That's what the maps+PDO/ENSO combo are really implying as early as late november for most of us except for maybe myself. That's about all the analysis I have at the moment but taken at face value, I really like what I see right now.

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Sitting here looking at the PDO setup of 2014-15 vs now and knowing what happened that year. One could have lots of arguments for a repeat only with the core of the main trough anchored in the central US instead of the eastern 3rd/half. Winter 2003 had a similar matching PDO structure as what we could be looking at as well but there was a Niño in play that year. I've got to get my maps from the 60s and late 70s out and analyze them over the next few weeks also and see what really 'drove the bus' in those years as well.

 

It's really stunning to me to see the torch CFS loving the cold this year. Precip wise is showing a Niña ridge type precip pattern (ridge over the SE with troughing and storms slamming in behind to the NW) in the south and that would imply, again, persistent troughing over the central states. Maybe a snowy south Central and great Lakes is in store this year. That's what the maps+PDO/ENSO combo are really implying as early as late november for most of us except for maybe myself. That's about all the analysis I have at the moment but taken at face value, I really like what I see right now.

 

 

Let's take a look and see what the SST's are forecast to look like by Oct/Nov when the new LRC develops in Autumn and then later in the Winter.  First, let's start by paying attention to the central Pacific.  Overall, the model continues to back off on the idea of a moderate La Nina.  I do believe we will see conditions that favor a weak La Nina, but the question is...does it hold???  Lets dive in.

 

In October, it seems to favor almost a La Nada look, but conditions Nov-Dec favor a weak La Nina...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/cfs-mon/2016073018/cfs-mon_01_ssta_global_3.png

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/cfs-mon/2016073018/cfs-mon_01_ssta_global_4.png

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/cfs-mon/2016073018/cfs-mon_01_ssta_global_5.png

 

 

 

If we turn our attention to the N PAC, this is prob going to be the main driving force to the N.A Winter, IMO.  We have a classic +PDO with a cold pocket of water N/NW of Hawaii, indicative of the late 70's winters.  We haven't seen a SST look like this that had a mature cold pocket in the autumn months which I think should correlate into a stormy pattern for the west coast as well as the central CONUS.  If you have a trough develop N of Hawaii, storms systems will "hand off" under a ridge in NW NAMER.  I think this is where the CFSv2 model is heading.  Check out the precip maps below.

 

In October, a hint of above normal precip near the desert SW and especially in the Midwest/southern plains

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/cfs-mon/2016073018/cfs-mon_01_apcpna_month_global_3.png

 

November turns dry...but in December, the west gets pounded...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/cfs-mon/2016073018/cfs-mon_01_apcpna_month_global_4.png

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/cfs-mon/2016073018/cfs-mon_01_apcpna_month_global_5.png

 

Continues into January...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/cfs-mon/2016073018/cfs-mon_01_apcpna_month_global_6.png

 

This type of pattern certainly won't be a boring one.  Should be fun watching the models come in with new info as we get closer to Autumn.

 

In terms of precip in the Autumn months, when you see the JAMSTEC model somewhat agree with the CFSv2, you gotta take this into consideration.  Especially when you see the model's Dec-Feb forecast...that is like heaven for those in the drought stricken Cali region.

 

http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/d1/iod/2007/forecast/tprep.glob.SON2016.1jul2016.gif

 

http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/d1/iod/2007/forecast/tprep.glob.DJF2017.1jul2016.gif

The NASA/CanSIPS model updates later this week and I'll post the maps when they are available.

 

I think the Midwest and plains will see a very cold winter and late fall this year, I think it will be like 2013/2014 season.

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Accuweather updated their Fall Outlook and mention a continuation of summer conditions into early Fall which seems reasonable.  They mention the pattern may start flipping towards winter like conditions for the central/northern states in late November which would be prime time given the start of the holiday season.

 

http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/2016-us-fall-forecast-warmth-in-northeast-drought-wildfires-in-west/59089880

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They lean warm at AccuWeather. They always have. I agree that the east coast and Southeast will be pretty warm for awhile. I think they're correct in SoCal also. I think we're about to see some hints of that type of pattern emerge over the next 2.5 weeks or so. Euro keeps trending slightly cooler day 8 and 9 with each run over most of our region. Last run it pushed the cooldown all the way to me finally. Liking that trend.

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I know some of my post above probably didn't fit here but it was on my mind anyway. Lol.

 

Has anyone noticed how dead neutral the Arctic Oscillation has been lately? I thought it was unusual but maybe it isnt.

Ya, it's been pretty steady this entire summer season.  I don't think it really means anything though, albeit, the arcitc temps have been near normal or slightly below.  Maybe we start seeing it trend negative as we head towards late August when the jet begins to charge up and the possibility of a few more Typhoons re-curving.

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After some researching would say it sets a warm anomaly +1.2-1.5c right square over the center of our regions and decreases going out from there in all directions. Not too sure about it but we'll have to see how it goes. Ssts would disagree with that on a few counts in my opinion.

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New Pioneer model run per D'Aleo (WxBell) indicates a cold DJF centered directly over the lakes region. Stretches back to the Pacific Northwest and south through the central US, and SE US. Above normal into the Desert Southwest and California. I'd say this is a fair assumption at this time. If the waters near the Baja don't cool some I agree there's a decent risk of there being problems getting the cooler air this far south this winter. There's a high likelihood of there being a recurring ridge somewhere this winter. Just hoping it is not over me again this year.

 

Anybody see D'Aleo's recent post over the curious nature of the QBO? I believe it shines a great light on how winter failed for a lot of us last season. Probably more so than El Nino did, IMO. It was another of those things that I studied last year and should have given more weight to. I won't be making that mistake again.

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