Preliminary Discussion For Upcoming 2016-2017 Fall and Winter Season

[OKwx2k4]

Thanks. :-/

[jaster220]

http://tswails.com/uploads/2016/11/1-cfs1.png

http://tswails.com/uploads/2016/11/1-temps2.png

 

Rumor is, the Euro has also withdrawn the prior "winter begins in December" look it was flashing. I think we just got 2011-12'd. The SSW event seems to have various possible results, including forcing the PV off the pole in the wrong direction! Thus, the other side of the hemi (see 2011-12) gets all the cold & active stuff and we get long stretches of seriously "tween season" boring-a** wx. 

[OKwx2k4]

Rumor is, the Euro has also withdrawn the prior "winter begins in December" look it was flashing. I think we just got 2011-12'd. The SSW event seems to have various possible results, including forcing the PV off the pole in the wrong direction! Thus, the other side of the hemi (see 2011-12) gets all the cold & active stuff and we get long stretches of seriously "tween season" boring-a** wx.

Excellent summary.

[gabel23]

Gary Lezak mentioned on his video this morning that the pattern is not good........the LRC might be against a good winter also. The way it looks to me is it will be an Ohio Valley/East Coast winter. 

[Tom]

Here are the new Euro Monthlies for Jan/Feb...

 

 

 

 

Moreover, here is the latest NASA model run...something is going on...

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/NMME/current/images/th.NASA_ensemble_tmp2m_us_season1.png

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/NMME/current/images/th.NASA_ensemble_tmp2m_us_season2.png

[jaster220]

Gary Lezak mentioned on his video this morning that the pattern is not good........the LRC might be against a good winter also. The way it looks to me is it will be an Ohio Valley/East Coast winter. 

 

IF winter shows at all, it's likely to be (drum roll pls) a back-end deal. Just the kind of rut we seem to be stuck in lately and most are sick of including your's truly. 

 

This is gonna take some time. I think Tom stepped out of the pilot's house when he saw the hand writing on the proverbial wall tbh.

 

 

grace post:

 

For the U.S. what needs to occur is that the walker cell needs to strengthen & the GOA slp retrograde. Until this occurs it doesn't really make a difference what else is going on. Hopefully the MJO wave can help shake things up....if it occurs.

 

I'm not up on the Walker Cell but we've all been talking about the GOA situation needing to change. I'm with Tom. Might as well enjoy extended summer if given the option of this or that (AZ, FL, etc). Could be worse I guess. Cold and dry we did circa '79-80 (no snow for the Olympics = pathetic!).

[jaster220]

Was also noted that 28% of weak Nina's were torch winters. Just our luck, we get one piggie-backed on the Super Nino! 

[Tom]

Was also noted that 28% of weak Nina's were torch winters. Just our luck, we get one piggie-backed on the Super Nino! 

The only model with any saving grace is the NCAR CESM...I read that it nailed the summer forecast and has a colder/snowier look for us.

 

Meanwhile, after reading AER's blog this morning, he touched on an important idea that should happen in the N PAC.  Something I have been paying attention to and how this will influence the jet stream later in December.

 

 

 

Warmer than normal SSTs in the northern North Pacific with colder than normal SSTs across the mid-latitudes could favor a southward shift the in the Jet Stream across the North Pacific this winter.  The cool waters across the mid-latitudes could help strengthen the Aleutians low further south opposite to what might be expected during La Niña.

[jaster220]

The only model with any saving grace is the NCAR CESM...I read that it nailed the summer forecast and has a colder/snowier look for us.

 

Meanwhile, after reading AER's blog this morning, he touched on an important idea that should happen in the N PAC.  Something I have been paying attention to and how this will influence the jet stream later in December.

 

I know you posted that those warmer waters could save our winter...guess we've got a lot more riding on that now. I just want a white holiday season with 4 of last 5 brown. Our long term avg even in SMI is above 50% but this stretch has been 1930's and 40's pathetic. 

[james1976]

Oh well. I guess ill take warm and dry over cold and dry.

[Tom]

I know you posted that those warmer waters could save our winter...guess we've got a lot more riding on that now. I just want a white holiday season with 4 of last 5 brown. Our long term avg even in SMI is above 50% but this stretch has been 1930's and 40's pathetic. 

Same here, a brown holiday season is almost like a waste of a winter season.  Kinda looses the mojo if you know what I mean.

[Tom]

Looks like WxBell updated their Winter forecast....

 

http://www.weatherbell.com/winter-seasonal-forecast-update

[Andrew NE]

Recent trends are not our friends as of late. I have a feeling this ridge is going to show its face all to often this winter.

[jaster220]

Recent trends are not our friends as of late. I have a feeling this ridge is going to show its face all to often this winter.

 

https://twitter.com/crankywxguy

 

(watch vid clip on this current trend)

 

Edit: I think dude was actually ticked in that situation, it wasn't for show   

[jaster220]

 

Boomer had a decent obs:

 

"What's interesting to me is that for the whole month of October and November climate models were predicting Eurasia to be quite warm, and as we know they have been bone chillingly cold. I have started to come up with my own theory that these climate models work better in the summer, when the patterns generally tend to be more benign, with much less strong cyclones and a weaker jet stream. Not sure if this has an relevancy at all, but the climate models seems to really struggle with winter patterns."

[westMJim]

 

 

Boomer had a decent obs:

 

"What's interesting to me is that for the whole month of October and November climate models were predicting Eurasia to be quite warm, and as we know they have been bone chillingly cold. I have started to come up with my own theory that these climate models work better in the summer, when the patterns generally tend to be more benign, with much less strong cyclones and a weaker jet stream. Not sure if this has an relevancy at all, but the climate models seems to really struggle with winter patterns."

 

You know that is very interesting. I am kind of updating my winter snow fall thoughts for west Michigan.  See my next post. 

[westMJim]

Now while the majority of the long-range winter outlooks have hinted towards a cold and snowy winter (and that still may happen) but there are now more and more hints that at least November AND now December may still be very mild and even turn dry. So at this time I think I will revise my winter snow fall amount for west Michigan. My old ideas were from 50” towards Lansing to 105” at the lake shore (78” in metro Grand Rapids) my thinking now is more like 40” to our east and maybe 80” at the lake shore and now around 60” at Grand Rapids. Remember this just my guess and can (and will change)

[jaster220]

Now while the majority of the long-range winter outlooks have hinted towards a cold and snowy winter (and that still may happen) but there are now more and more hints that at least November AND now December may still be very mild and even turn dry. So at this time I think I will revise my winter snow fall amount for west Michigan. My old ideas were from 50” towards Lansing to 105” at the lake shore (78” in metro Grand Rapids) my thinking now is more like 40” to our east and maybe 80” at the lake shore and now around 60” at Grand Rapids. Remember this just my guess and can (and will change)

 

per CrankyWx:

 

Would suggest to put down your euro weeklies, soi, qbo, whatever, and let some evolution take place before writing a new book on Nov-May wx.

 

 

Another looked up the Euro's winter F-cast from both 2013 and 2014. Both showed a flood of warmth (AGW biased???) and we all know how that worked out around here don't we?

[jaster220]

If the Euro doesn't do a sudden flip-flop on it's MJO call, we could see enough cold later in the 30 day period to get some winter action:

 

 

[Niko]

Looks like WxBell updated their Winter forecast....

 

http://www.weatherbell.com/winter-seasonal-forecast-update

I'll take that in a heart beat.

[Niko]

Same here, a brown holiday season is almost like a waste of a winter season.  Kinda looses the mojo if you know what I mean.

Especially, if its warm also. I remember one time, I think it was 1982, if I am correct....it was 75F on Christmas Day under Mostly Sunny skies. It was a record. This was in NYC. Disgusting!

[OKwx2k4]

The para Euro offers me a back edge storm every 7 days all the way through December with cold sitting just on the left of it. Looks like 2010 if I ever saw it. Hard not to imagine seeing some snow.

[Tom]

The para Euro offers me a back edge storm every 7 days all the way through December with cold sitting just on the left of it. Looks like 2010 if I ever saw it. Hard not to imagine seeing some snow.

I think we are on the verge of seeing a southern jet stream coming into play second half of the month.  GEFS are not budging at all .

[OKwx2k4]

I think we are on the verge of seeing a southern jet stream coming into play second half of the month. GEFS are not budging at all .

I like it.

[Tom]

The para Euro offers me a back edge storm every 7 days all the way through December with cold sitting just on the left of it. Looks like 2010 if I ever saw it. Hard not to imagine seeing some snow.

How has the Euro Para been performing thus far since October???  Was it cold or warm bias??  Curious, bc I remember following that model last year and it was much better than the Euro Ens.

[Tom]

We can finally say, Alaska is covered with snow!  Took a while, but looking good to refrigerate that cold air.

 

 

 

7th....

 

 

http://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims/ims_gif/DATA/prvsnow_alaska.gif

 

8th...

 

http://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims/ims_gif/DATA/cursnow_alaska.gif

[jaster220]

 

 

We can finally say, Alaska is covered with snow!  Took a while, but looking good to refrigerate that cold air.

 

Skids are getting greased. If the U.K. gets a cold winter, that usually means we do as well since the jet flow tends to dictate their harsh winters and ours coincide.  

[An italian the loves snow]

Hi to everyone. Is my first message but I follow you everyday. I'm Italian and until next march i will live in Toronto. Sorry for my bad english. I saw the Mjo forecast and it looks that will go in phase 1 during November. I can not attached imagine about 500 mb anomalies with Nada. I hope you can open this link. Is a table made from my Italian weather forum.

 

http://www.meteonetwork.it/models/mjo/11/nada_1_nov_low.png

 

I can't wait to see first snowflakes of the season. Hope the pattern will change quickly. I can't stand anymore this warm and sunny weather.

Greetings

[jaster220]

Hi to everyone. Is my first message but I follow you everyday. I'm Italian and until next march i will live in Toronto. Sorry for my bad english. I saw the Mjo forecast and it looks that will go in phase 1 during November. I can not attached imagine about 500 mb anomalies with Nada. I hope you can open this link. Is a table made from my Italian weather forum.

 

http://www.meteonetwork.it/models/mjo/11/nada_1_nov_low.png

 

I can't wait to see first snowflakes of the season. Hope the pattern will change quickly. I can't stand anymore this warm and sunny weather.

Greetings

 

A big welcome to the forum! Did you get a lot of snow where you were from in Italy? 

 

Here's a cool 3D vid of the PV split in Jan '09:   

[An italian the loves snow]

A big welcome to the forum! Did you get a lot of snow where you were from in Italy? 

 

Here's a cool 3D vid of the PV split in Jan '09:   https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bminxfVGa5w

Thank you for welcoming. In my area, south Italy, in these last years we get mild winters and little snow but the 2012, in February, when in many places, including mine, we beat records of amount. In many town came the army to set free people.

Here I'm in that wonderful month!

[Niko]

Thank you for welcoming. In my area, south Italy, in these last years we get mild winters and little snow but the 2012, in February, when in many places, including mine, we beat records of amount. In many town came the army to set free people.

Here I'm in that wonderful month!

Welcome to the forum. I'm sure you will feature excitement and immense conversation on here. Enjoy!

[An italian the loves snow]

Welcome to the forum. I'm sure you will feature excitement and immense conversation on here. Enjoy!

Thank you Niko. I hope to contribute to discussion.

Meanwhile, i see some slight improvement this morning in the models, especially Gfs and Ens. But even Canadian model is not too bad like past days run.

[An italian the loves snow]

One question: what you mean when you say FWIW?

I don't understand all the weather acronyms.

Thanks

[jaster220]

One question: what you mean when you say FWIW?

I don't understand all the weather acronyms.

Thanks

 

That's not a wx acronym, it's American textese for "For What It's Worth"..

 

 

Folks still hopeful and discussing PV splitting benefits of the recent SSW. Here are some good points:

 

 

[Niko]

One question: what you mean when you say FWIW?

I don't understand all the weather acronyms.

Thanks

Hint: whenever you are not sure of anything, just "Google" it.

[Tom]

Borrowed this map from a met that uses the POAMA model and its showing a snowier trend for the month of December across the Plains/Midwest/Lakes/OV.  SW Flow may not be that far off???  BTW, I saw this map a couple weeks ago and it pounded British Columbia. So to see it backing off in western Canada may mean the model is seeing ridging there now. 

 

 

[Niko]

Thank you Niko. I hope to contribute to discussion.

Meanwhile, i see some slight improvement this morning in the models, especially Gfs and Ens. But even Canadian model is not too bad like past days run.

I am waiting to get snowstorms in December, J, AND F. Although, I wouldn't mind getting one in late November, right after Thanksgiving. One thing is for sure, this winter will be more strident than last year.

 

BTW: where are you located?

[hlcater]

I am waiting to get snowstorms in December, J, AND F. Although, I wouldn't mind getting one in late November, right after Thanksgiving. One thing is for sure, this winter will be more strident than last year.

 

BTW: where are you located?

Anything is more strident than last year

[Andrew NE]

Does the LRC cycle usually end around the 10th of the month or 20th of this month? I have been following Gary pretty consistent the last 4-5 months trying to learn more about this LRC deal, just curious has anyone disproved his theory.  He seems to ride the high horse that he is always correct(and maybe he has been).  I feel like there has not been the influx of winter weather predictions posted in here compared to previous years from outside mets.

[james1976]

Does the LRC cycle usually end around the 10th of the month or 20th of this month? I have been following Gary pretty consistent the last 4-5 months trying to learn more about this LRC deal, just curious has anyone disproved his theory. He seems to ride the high horse that he is always correct(and maybe he has been). I feel like there has not been the influx of winter weather predictions posted in here compared to previous years from outside mets.

Prolly closer to the 20th. And so far its been way above normal and mostly dry.