Preliminary Discussion For Upcoming 2016-2017 Fall and Winter Season

[GDR]

[Tom]

Updated CFSv2 monthlies...little by little, its trending colder and more widespread with the negative anomalies...Jan-Mar could be ridiculously cold.

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/imagesInd3/glbz700SeaInd3.gif

 

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/imagesInd3/glbz700SeaInd4.gif

 

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/imagesInd3/glbz700SeaInd5.gif

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/imagesInd3/glbz700SeaInd6.gif

 

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/imagesInd3/usT2mSeaInd3.gif

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/imagesInd3/usT2mSeaInd4.gif

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/imagesInd3/usT2mSeaInd5.gif

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/imagesInd3/usT2mSeaInd6.gif

 

 

January...

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/imagesInd3/usT2mMonInd5.gif

 

February...

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/imagesInd3/usT2mMonInd6.gif

[james1976]

Love the trends!

[Tom]

JAMSTEC is having problems.  Check out it's latest updated August run below...

 

SST's in the N PAC don't even have the cold pocket in the Autumn months, but is seeing it in the Winter/Spring months...however, the waters in the central Pacific are a tad colder from it's previous run.  

 

http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/d1/iod/2007/forecast/ssta.nino3.4.fcst.1aug2016.gif

 

 

http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/d1/iod/2007/forecast/ssta.glob.SON2016.1aug2016.gif

http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/d1/iod/2007/forecast/ssta.glob.DJF2017.1aug2016.gif

 

 

It's now flipping to a very warm run which is highly suspect....

 

http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/d1/iod/2007/forecast/temp2.glob.SON2016.1aug2016.gif

 

http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/d1/iod/2007/forecast/temp2.glob.DJF2017.1aug2016.gif

[OKwx2k4]

Yeah. Saw the JAMSTEC yesterday. It's in left field now. It will probably come back to reality next time.

[jaster220]

I haven't looked for it on the internet yet but today on the radio they mentioned the Old Farmer's Almanac just came out with their Winter Forecast and it apparently has the Midwest with below normal temps/above normal snowfall.

I'm hearing the farmers almanac and the CFSv2 is a cold wet dream

 

Go Here and enjoy! 

 

http://farmersalmanac.com/weather-outlook/2017-winter-forecast/

[OKwx2k4]

I like how AccuWeather's fall forecast is only 6 days old and it already looks like it's a joke. Lol.

[Tom]

Starting this week, the pattern setting up south of the Bearing Sea is catching my eye for several reasons.  1) It is beginning the cooling process of the waters just south of the Aleutians and NW of Hawaii  2) It may be a sign of some of the early clues for the new LRC which happen way up north first  3) The waters along the western N.A. coastline/NE PAC will in turn warm  4) The SST's in the N PAC should begin lining up towards where the CFSv2 is seeing it along with various other global models.

 

Here is the latest SST anomaly and you can see a little blip of cooler waters south of the Bearing Sea...will it begin to expand south towards that tongue of colder waters as we head into September??  It would be the most likely scenario.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/ocean/cdas-sflux_ssta_global_1.png

 

 

Over the next 4 weeks, the CFSv2 isn't shifting this pattern much in the N PAC and seemingly will keep firing up the NW NAMER ridge as we head into the first part of early Autumn.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/cfs-avg/2016081706/cfs-avg_T2maMean_namer_2.png

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/cfs-avg/2016081706/cfs-avg_T2maMean_namer_3.png

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/cfs-avg/2016081706/cfs-avg_T2maMean_namer_4.png

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/cfs-avg/2016081706/cfs-avg_T2maMean_namer_5.png

[Niko]

Go Here and enjoy! 

 

http://farmersalmanac.com/weather-outlook/2017-winter-forecast/

Bring it on baby!!!! Let mother nature provide a repeat of winter 2013-14. Man, I am not going forget that winter. We had a snowstorm every 3 to 4 days here in SEMI.

[Tom]

CPC updated their seasonal outlooks.  September looks like it is trending to be a very warm west and near normal eastern 2/3rd's of the nation with pockets of above normal, esp in the SE where a drought is taking place.

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/t14.2c.gif

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/p14.2c.gif

 

 

Overall, Autumn looks to be above normal temp wise and near normal precip for the lower 48, except for the northern Rockies.  I think this is where the La Nina pattern may start to make an impact driving a storm track into the northern Rockies.

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/t01.2c.gif

 

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/p01.2c.gif

 

 

For Winter...

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/t04.2c.gif

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/p04.2c.gif

 

 

Winter/Spring months...

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/t05.2c.gif

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/p05.2c.gif

 

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/t06.2c.gif

 

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/p06.2c.gif

[OKwx2k4]

I like laughing at the CPC maps. I'm pretty sure they're clueless. It's rained 20+ inches in parts of the southeast with the tropics forecast to come alive and a pretty much permanent trough forecast over the central US for the next month and that's what they come up with. Lol. I'm glad at least we're watching the weather because they're not apparently.

[Tom]

TWC's updated their Fall Outlook...

 

https://weather.com/forecast/national/news/fall-temperature-forecast-september-november

[jaster220]

GRR's disco Thursday pm was written by their #1 winter enthusiast - ha! can you tell? 

 

Interesting what he says about this weekend's system too. Signs of things to come? Anyone remember autumn of '89. At least around the S. Lakes there were repeated strong systems producing synoptic snow by the 3rd week of October. Not sure we need that early of a start, but the repeated strong systems were really cool

 

 

 

 

 

[jaster220]

TWC's updated their Fall Outlook...

 

https://weather.com/forecast/national/news/fall-temperature-forecast-september-november

 

Also of interest..it's getting closer!

 

https://weather.com/storms/winter/news/record-earliest-measurable-snow-united-states

[jaster220]

I like laughing at the CPC maps. I'm pretty sure they're clueless. It's rained 20+ inches in parts of the southeast with the tropics forecast to come alive and a pretty much permanent trough forecast over the central US for the next month and that's what they come up with. Lol. I'm glad at least we're watching the weather because they're not apparently.

 

 And I thought they were banned from using the color blue on any long-range forecast since nothings ever below normal, is it?

[jaster220]

Bring it on baby!!!! Let mother nature provide a repeat of winter 2013-14. Man, I am not going forget that winter. We had a snowstorm every 3 to 4 days here in SEMI.

 

You want more of this???

 

 

 

and this??

 

 

 

 

[Tom]

CFS/CFSv2 still holding onto the idea of a colder looking Sept-Nov period, esp the later.  I think as the jet starts to really crank in November, we could see a taste of Winter.  Even this far out, I've been reading that most mets/forecasters think that the north/central states will see some snow early snows.  

 

The CFS/CFSv2 has been advertising some strong troughs mid/late October over the central CONUS.  I haven't seen it back away from that idea ever since I've started watching it almost daily.  It certainly makes me wonder if this trend will continue because it brings back memories of the 2013-2014 season on how that model saw the quick start to Winter in November.  I remember Muskey fishing with my friend in October/November '13 and how cold some mornings were.  The month of October started off warmer than normal in October '13, but by the 13th, it stayed below normal.

 

 

I'm seeing some similarities as we move into November also...

 

 

 

I'm not going to get ahead of myself, but the SST's in the N PAC and a weak La Nina signal are starting to get exciting this time of year!

[OKwx2k4]

And I thought they were banned from using the color blue on any long-range forecast since nothings ever below normal, is it?

I bet they used all their blue pixels up for the year on those maps. Lol

[james1976]

I like all the talk of a potential 13-14 repeat. That was an epic winter. Hopefully something similar happens.

[clintbeed1993]

I like all the talk of a potential 13-14 repeat. That was an epic winter. Hopefully something similar happens.

 

God no.  Please don't do that to us Nebraska peeps.  That winter was a total dud for us.

[OKwx2k4]

God no. Please don't do that to us Nebraska peeps. That winter was a total dud for us.

I bet it did kinda suck for you guys. I got lucky with Southwesterly flow all winter long with weak lows riding over the southeast edge of the cold dome. Feels like an eternity since I've had a real wrapped up southern track low dump snow down here. El Niño is known for that but last year it failed me miserably.

[OKwx2k4]

The CFS is still saying it's going to be like late fall in early October. If that's the case, it's going to get to changing rapidly over the next 45 days.

[OKwx2k4]

For what it's worth, the 46 day Euro agrees for the most part. AO is forecast to go into a dipole pattern soon also. Fall is coming fast.

[OKwx2k4]

Last thing I'll add. Had anyone noticed that 78-79 is kinda a possible analog, being a cold neutral that never quite made -.5 with a +PDO. Just strange noting the types of years we just came out of. Couple it with 1983-84 and you have some cool choices for a type of winter. If our enso spikes right towards positive over the coming 30 days, it will be very telling as to what kind of winter we should see.

[Tom]

I mentioned in an earlier post that the CFS and overall pattern in Siberia may spawn some early season snows.  After reading Dr. Cohen's blog today, he has also opined on this development.  Sign of things to come???  A hint that Ol' Man Winter will be brewing up some good stuff in that part of the world.

 

 

 

But there are signs that the season is finally transitioning from summer to fall as temperatures are predicted to plunge across Siberia.  A very deep area of low geopotential heights near the North Pole will pinwheel its way towards Siberia this week.  Unseasonably cold temperatures and even snowfall will accompany the rapidly falling geopotential heights across Siberia.  The predicted turn to freezing temperatures and snowfall is the first sign this summer that winter is indeed coming.

 

 

Here is the link to his article: http://www.aer.com/science-research/climate-weather/arctic-oscillation

[GDR]

[james1976]

Good stuff everyone. Looking forward to see what kinda changes occur in the next 45 days.

[Tom]

Signs Winter is coming...first snows of the season in the Rockies just west of Denver, CO...

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=327kRhFpACk

[Jaycee]

Enters forum like:

 

 

 

"Yeah, looks like we're expecting a winter season that rivals that of 2013-2014!"

 

[Tom]

Enters forum like:

 

 

 

"Yeah, looks like we're expecting a winter season that rivals that of 2013-2014!"

 

LOL, got a kick outta this!  We have to see how this year's LRC sets up before coming to any conclusion.  The amount of cold air that may infiltrate the lower 48 could rival 2013-14, but in terms of where the storm track lines up, that is the question.  Even if half the amount of cold air that rivaled 2013-14 were to hit, it still would be an awesome Winter if we have the snow fall come with it to.

[Tom]

Not sure what implications this will have on the wx pattern heading into Autumn, but I've noticed both 10mb/30mb warming has begun in the past few days over the Arctic regions.  Could this signal blocking???

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/intraseasonal/temp10anim.gif

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/intraseasonal/temp30anim.gif

[OKwx2k4]

I'm not really sure Tom. My thoughts are that it could be up to 45-60 days before we really know or have an idea. The stratospheric stuff is pretty difficult to figure out sometimes. The more I learn, the less I realize that I know about how it works.

[Tom]

In today's Weather2020 blog, Gary Lezak briefly touched on the rising heights near the Archipeligo region which are developing this weekend and near Alaska.  He says this may be some hints to the new LRC pattern which are prob beginning to show up that way as the seasons begin to change up there.  Might the early stratospheric warming having anything to do with it???  The ridge that is currently holding strong in the NE PAC is def something that strikes my attention as it is certainly effecting the flow way up north but not necessarily so much down this way just yet..

[Jaycee]

LOL, got a kick outta this!  We have to see how this year's LRC sets up before coming to any conclusion.  The amount of cold air that may infiltrate the lower 48 could rival 2013-14, but in terms of where the storm track lines up, that is the question.  Even if half the amount of cold air that rivaled 2013-14 were to hit, it still would be an awesome Winter if we have the snow fall come with it to.

 

 That was the WORST year of snow I've ever had. You guys' were getting absolutely hammered while we got blowing dust advisories. Hope to see something along the lines of 09-'10 but it's not plausible right now. Oh well, I'm graduated now, so maybe I'll just move back to the Chi

[jaster220]

 That was the WORST year of snow I've ever had. You guys' were getting absolutely hammered while we got blowing dust advisories. Hope to see something along the lines of 09-'10 but it's not plausible right now. Oh well, I'm graduated now, so maybe I'll just move back to the Chi

 

I will say this about the early talk of a 2013-14 scenario. I can remember some "tell tale signs" already showing up that September when my daughter got frozen in the marching band at an afternoon JV football game - 45º with wind driven squalls is NOT typical September afternoon wx in Marshall. Then we had our first coating (1/2") of SN on the 23rd of October. This year maybe is more favorably compared to 2007? Warm autumn >> becomes snowy winter..

[Tom]

I will say this about the early talk of a 2013-14 scenario. I can remember some "tell tale signs" already showing up that September when my daughter got frozen in the marching band at an afternoon JV football game - 45º with wind driven squalls is NOT typical September afternoon wx in Marshall. Then we had our first coating (1/2") of SN on the 23rd of October. This year maybe is more favorably compared to 2007? Warm autumn >> becomes snowy winter..

Both '09/'10 & '07/'08 would be great winters to experience for most of the sub form, except for maybe the deep southern Plains.  I wouldn't mind if it would be a touch colder also.  I hope we can see a storm track from the PAC NW, down to the central/southern Rockies and up towards the OV.  Seems like a SE ridge will be a player from time to time.  Most modeling is picking up on it and the waters near Bermuda and along the EC are torching.

[Tom]

As noted earlier, the pattern up near Siberia is turning colder and the first snows of the season have fallen.  Here is the latest snow cover map showing the recent snows.  It will melt away, but signs Winter is forthcoming in that part of the world.

 

http://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims/ims_gif/DATA/cursnow_alaska.gif

 

 

I'm curious to see what Dr. Cohen's Snow Advance Index will portray this year over Siberia/Russia.

[jaster220]

Both '09/'10 & '07/'08 would be great winters to experience for most of the sub form, except for maybe the deep southern Plains.  I wouldn't mind if it would be a touch colder also.  I hope we can see a storm track from the PAC NW, down to the central/southern Rockies and up towards the OV.  Seems like a SE ridge will be a player from time to time.  Most modeling is picking up on it and the waters near Bermuda and along the EC are torching.

 

Tbh, I was not really paying too close of attention 3 yrs ago at this time. Due to the bad winters the 2 prior seasons (and SCMI was in a synoptic storm drought from GHD-1 until it broke finally in Dec of '13) my expectations were held in check (still feeling the burn of 11-12 lol). It wasn't until all those last minute winter forecasts started rolling in with the same snowy-n-cold scenario for S. Lakes that I got caught up in the possibilities. Ofc, I'd never in a zillion years thought Marshall could experience the equivalent of an eastern UP winter. The ongoing deep snow cover, winds, and frequent bitter cold outbreaks were surreal  

[UnionWX]

Enters forum like:

 

 

 

"Yeah, looks like we're expecting a winter season that rivals that of 2013-2014!"

 

 

[Tom]

It's been a couple weeks since I posted maps the CFS model was showing in terms of where the model believes the snow cover will begin to build.  I remember, back in early August, the model saw the Archipelago region and parts of the Yukon having snows already sticking towards the first part of September.  Let's dive in and see what it's showing now.

 

By mid September, here is today's run (btw, its been pretty consistent) where the snow cover should start building.

 

http://expert-images.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/cfs/2016/08/29/basis00/namk/weas/16091500_2900.gif

 

 

Both GEFS/EPS show a drastic cooling in this part of northern Canada/Yukon Territories.  In fact, the GFS is showing these snows...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016082912/gfs_asnow_namer_41.png

 

 

By October 1st...

 

http://expert-images.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/cfs/2016/08/29/basis00/namk/weas/16100100_2900.gif

 

November 1st...

 

http://expert-images.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/cfs/2016/08/29/basis00/namk/weas/16110100_2900.gif

 

 

November 22nd...(this will most definitely change, but signing a common tune over the past few weeks)...

 

http://expert-images.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/cfs/2016/08/29/basis00/namk/weas/16112200_2900.gif