The Tim and Phil thread

[TT-SEA]

Quick trend may continue, so could move up to Friday.

 

Probably ~ 2 days off, when no other model/ensemble (except the CMC) even hinted at it. So, decent run relatively speaking.

No way. It did not even show the warm spell at that time. That was not a crash... that was just status quo. We were debating whether that pattern would be cooler than average for this current week.

 

Way off.

 

In fact at the same time you were also saying below normal until the 26th or 27th. So those maps might have been BEFORE the impending warm spell.   That is really bad.

[TT-SEA]

84 at SEA... ECMWF is at least 4 degrees too cold already on day 1.  

 

So far SEA is at +5 for the day.

[Phil]

No way. It did not even show the warm spell at that time. That was not a crash... that was just status quo. We were debating whether that pattern would be cooler than average for this current week.

 

Way off.

 

In fact at the same time you were also saying below normal until the 26th or 27th. So those maps might have been BEFORE the impending warm spell. That is really bad.

This is complete nonsense. Look at the run archive, it had the warm-up loud and clear.

 

Stop talking out of your a**.

[Phil]

Tim has probably set the internet forum world-record for misinformation. Unbelievable.

[TT-SEA]

18Z stalls the trough... leaving a warm Saturday.    Warmer than the 12Z run by 2-3C at the 850mb level.  

[Phil]

18Z stalls the trough... leaving a warm Saturday. Warmer than the 12Z run by 2-3C at the 850mb level.

Lol, no it doesn't. It's faster/colder than 12z.

[Phil]

Only one person is "spinning". Cool air already well inland by 11AM Saturday:

 

[TT-SEA]

Lol, no it doesn't. It's faster/colder than 12z.

 

12Z run at 850mb level at 5 p.m. Saturday:

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/12/namer/850_temp_ht/gfs_namer_132_850_temp_ht.gif

 

18Z run at 850mb level at 5 p.m. Saturday:

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/18/namer/850_temp_ht/gfs_namer_126_850_temp_ht.gif

 

 

The 18Z run is warmer.   Its also daytime and its sunny in Seattle, WA at this moment.   Care to debate?

[Deweydog]

Lol, no it doesn't. It's faster/colder than 12z.

Not that it matters, but yeah, the 18z is a bit warmer for Saturday.

[Jesse]

When are we giving them their own thread?

 

That is a legitimately good idea.

[Phil]

Resolution is too low on those maps. The 850mb temperatures fall below average before 12z Saturday.

 

Here's 12z, 18z, 00z:

 

 

 

[Phil]

When are we giving them their own thread?

That is a legitimately good idea.

I'm just tired of the misinformation, wishcasting, and spin/attacks since this Spring.

 

Shouldn't be a big deal to me, but after dealing with it for months on end, I just have no patience anymore, especially knowing it's only going to get worse as August rolls on.

[Phil]

So simple.

 

Learn to read a f**king sounding, you gargantuan nitwit.

 

Jeeze-o-flip you're just a nightmare.

[Jesse]

I'm just tired of the misinformation, wishcasting, and spin/attacks since this Spring.

 

Shouldn't be a big deal to me, but after dealing with it for months on end, I just have no patience anymore, especially knowing it's only going to get worse as August rolls on.

No doubt he is by far the worst of the two of you. You need to stop letting yourself get drug into it though.

 

It's like a bratty kid who wants a ton of attention. Sometimes the best thing to do is ignore him. He thrives off of this stuff. As long as you keep responding it will literally go on forever.

[Phil]

Yeah, I'm out for awhile. Might give myself an aneurism at this rate.

[Jesse]

Yeah, I'm out. Going to give myself an aneurism at this rate.

Ignore is a wonderful feature.

 

My only complaint is that it doesn't hide quoted posts. So some of the douchery still makes it through.

[TT-SEA]

Learn to read a f**king sounding, you gargantuan nitwit.

 

Jeeze-o-flip you're just a nightmare.

 

 

 

Not a wishcast.... not misinformation.

 

The 18Z run is a little warmer at the 850mb level on Saturday afternoon.   That is a FACT.  

 

 

 

Not that it matters, but yeah, the 18z is a bit warmer for Saturday.

 

[TT-SEA]

Bookmarked and screenshot, just in case you decide to delete this post later.

 

Warmth the last week of July? Is this another "gut feeling"? That method of reasoning hasn't exactly benefited you to this point.

 

 

 

Just a reminder.     

[Phil]

 

Just a reminder.

"Quick trough around the 4th of July". "Rain will be scarce".

 

"1998 redux at PDX". "Ridging from late July through August".

 

Must I go on, Dr. Flip Flop?

[Deweydog]

Jesse is completely and totally biased in every way against me. He would side with you even if you were a convicted murderer. No joke.

 

I have been perfectly honest about everything this year. Admitted when I was wrong and have been right way more than you give me credit.

 

And you are wrong about the 18Z run and name calling does not help.

 

Not a wishcast.... not misinformation.

 

The 18Z run is a little warmer at the 850mb level on Saturday afternoon. That is a FACT.

Yeah, Jesse isn't gonna see the whole field.

 

You're both out of your minds. Whatever righteous message of forecasting goodness you both had at one point has been lost.

 

Both comlicit and both unable to stop your own momentum.

 

Sad.

[Jesse]

Yeah, Jesse isn't gonna see the whole field.

 

You're both out of your minds. Whatever righteous message of forecasting goodness you both had at one point has been lost.

 

Both comlicit and both unable to stop your own momentum.

 

Sad.

They are both bad. Tim is worse. Do you disagree?

[TT-SEA]

"Quick trough around the 4th of July". "Rain will be scarce".

 

"1998 redux at PDX". "Ridging from late July through August".

 

Must I go on, Dr. Flip Flop?

 

 

Is it warm this week?    You argued with me and I never back down.   Even Dewey told me to be prepared for crippling disappointment.   But its warm this week.  

 

You are a kid in his early 20s just dead-set on attacking everything I say even when I am totally accurate.   Its gotten ridiculous.    I don't attack you for accurate statements ever.  

 

At least I live in the area being discussed so it directly effects me.  I don't know why you have taken it upon yourself to take this so personally.

[James Jones]

When are we giving them their own thread?

 

That is a legitimately good idea.

We could do a monthly Tim/Phil thread for August, and an August 2016 PNW discussion thread as usual, and then have a "forecast contest" for which thread gets more posts.

[Deweydog]

They are both bad. Tim is worse. Do you disagree?

I think the differences are fairly small overall. Tim seems more desperate to hold on to the recent past, a past which has left you pretty scarred, so it makes sense you'd lean Phil's way. But I can't wrap my head around why someone who lives 3,000 miles from here would care so much as to lose his mind so frequently over the musings of one North Bend yuppie.

[TT-SEA]

We could do a monthly Tim/Phil thread for August, and an August 2016 PNW discussion thread as usual, and then have a "forecast contest" for which thread gets more posts.

 

 

A separate thread is probably a good idea.

[Deweydog]

Is it warm this week? You argued with me and I never back down. Even Dewey told me to be prepared for crippling disappointment. But its warm this week.

 

You are a kid in his early 20s just dead-set on attacking everything I say even when I am totally accurate. Its gotten ridiculous. I don't attack you for accurate statements ever.

 

At least I live in the area being discussed so it directly effects me. I don't know why you have taken it upon yourself to take this so personally.

It was a good call. I thought we'd stay relatively unsettled well into August but we caught a nice little break.

[Phil]

Is it warm this week? You argued with me and I never back down. Even Dewey told me to be prepared for crippling disappointment. But its warm this week.

Bullcrap. I didn't argue against the idea (I said it was within the realm of possibility). I called you out for wishcasting, which what you were/are doing. Pulling "forecasts" out of your a** solely based on your personal desires.

 

You are a kid in his early 20s just dead-set on attacking everything I say even when I am totally accurate. Its gotten ridiculous. I don't attack you for accurate statements ever.

I'm a student and academic of Atmospheric Science, actually. You're a middle-aged hillbilly who twists words and wishcasts 24/7. Sorry.

 

At least I live in the area being discussed so it directly effects me.

Oh, it affects you alright. A bit too much if you ask me.

[Phil]

Wow, just took a look at the models today and it keeps trending cooler and cooler. I have not seen models trend this cold ever in the summer especially during late July and early August when it's peak heating season here!

Careful, you'll give Tim a panic attack.

[TT-SEA]

Bullcrap. I didn't argue against the idea (I said it was within the realm of possibility). I called you out for wishcasting, which what you were/are doing. Pulling "forecasts" out of your a** solely based on your personal desires.

 

 

I'm a student and academic of Atmospheric Science, actually. You're a middle-aged hillbilly who twists words and wishcasts 24/7. Sorry.

 

 

Oh, it affects you alright. A bit too much if you ask me.

 

 

You were directly mocking me for saying it would be warm this week.   

 

And now I am hillbilly?    A yuppie hillbilly?   

 

You are an angry person Phil.   And I am your target.     For years you attacked me for questioning where you live.   Years.   And now you are attacking me for everything I say about the pattern and the models even when I am right.    You are just angry.   

 

I wishcasted the first part of July being cool and wet?    I did that even when you were forecasting ridging!   Think about that.   

[TT-SEA]

By the way... the 18Z GFS was warmer at the 850mb level for Saturday afternoon compared to the 12Z run.

 

That is a fact and was the only point made.

 

Of course that has to be challenged and turns into lots of name-calling from a kid 3,000 miles away.   Unbelievable.

 

And its still true.  

[Deweydog]

By the way... the 18Z GFS was warmer at the 850mb level for Saturday afternoon compared to the 12Z run.

 

That is a fact and was the only point made.

 

Of course that has to be challenged and turns into lots of name-calling from a kid 3,000 miles away. Unbelievable.

Didn't help his case.

 

But I'm sure at some point over the next 12 hours or so you'll do something to damage yours.

 

The beat goes on...

[Phil]

You were directly mocking me for saying it would be warm this week.

 

And now I am hillbilly?

 

A yuppie hillbilly?

 

You are an angry person Phil. And I am your target. For years you attacked me for questioning where you live. Years. And now you are attacking me for everything I say about the pattern and the models even when I am right. You are just angry.

 

I wishcasted the first part of July being cool and wet? I did that even when you were forecasting ridging! Think about that.

Still trying to spin it, huh? No, I'm not an angry person at all, quite the opposite actually. Ask anyone who knows me. I'm generally a happy guy.

 

For months, you've been hyperventilating at me. Spinning my words, moving goalposts, and/or simply making s**t up, only to "concede" on the big picture, then start your panicky routine again with new goalposts set up.

 

I dealt with it nicely and calmly for awhile. Now, my patience has run out. Just, stop. Are you going to waste the entirety of your summer fighting with me over a summer forecast? Are you that desperate to "win"? What good are you doing yourself?

 

Just...stop.

[TT-SEA]

Still trying to spin it, huh? No, I'm not an angry person at all, quite the opposite actually. Ask anyone who knows me. I'm generally a happy guy.

 

For months, you've been hyperventilating at me. Spinning my words, moving goalposts, and/or simply making s**t up, only to "concede" on the big picture, then start your panicky routine again with new goalposts set up.

 

I dealt with it nicely and calmly for awhile. Now, my patience has run out. Just, stop. Are you going to waste the entirety of your summer fighting with me over a summer forecast? Are you that desperate to "win"? What good are you doing yourself?

 

Just...stop.

 

 

Wrong.   This goes back years Phil.   Its the same person arguing with me about living in McHenry and calling me every name in the book for questioning it.   You did not deal with anything calmly.     I have dealt with you calmly and take your name-calling in stride.  When challenged its like flipping a switch.   You become a different person.    Nothing has changed.   

[Phil]

I don't do that. Angry kid living at home looking for a fight. Smart kid... and very angry.

Yeah, you do. You just did right here.

 

I'm not angry person, and I don't live at home either. Swing and a miss again.

[Front Ranger]

By the way... the 18Z GFS was warmer at the 850mb level for Saturday afternoon compared to the 12Z run.

 

Regardless, you've still been doing all sorts of cherry-picking and spinning with the models lately. You always do, but it's been worse recently as you've been trying way too hard to prove silly points.

[TT-SEA]

Regardless, you've still been doing all sorts of cherry-picking and spinning with the models lately. You always do, but it's been worse recently as you've been trying way too hard to prove silly points.

 

Last week was warm here... this week is warm here.   

 

What silly points?   

 

We were discussing Saturday.   I said it could speed up.   That is a possibility.

 

Then reported the 18Z run was warmer at the 850mb level compared to the 12Z run.    Its the only run to discuss right now.   And that point is true.

[TT-SEA]

Yeah, you do. You just did right here.

 

I'm not angry person, and I don't live at home either. Swing and a miss again.

 

 

OK Phil.   

[Phil]

Wrong. This goes back years Phil. Its the same person arguing with me about living in McHenry and calling me every name in the book for questioning it. You did not deal with anything calmly. I have dealt with you calmly and take your name-calling in stride. When challenged its like flipping a switch. You become a different person. Nothing has changed.

What does a story I came up with as a teenager have anything to do with this? I've been 100% transparent since then.

 

You're the spinmaster now. See above. You go insane here for months, constantly barraging me & the forum with ridiculous claims, ad hominem attacks, and flat out bulls**t, then have the nerve to call me an "angry person" when I become fed up?

 

I'm legitimately worried about you.

[Phil]

Example: "Last week was warm". That's the kind of spin I'm talking about. I'm not the only one calling you out on this.

 

Last week was cooler than average over 95% of the region. The 850mb temperatures were cooler than average. The 500mb height were below average. Contrary to your forecast. Your little "hotspot" is an anomaly, so stop trying to pretend it somehow represents the pattern. It doesn't, okay?

[TT-SEA]

Example: "Last week was warm". That's the kind of spin I'm talking about. I'm not the only one calling you out on this.

 

Last week was cooler than average over 95% of the region. The 850mb temperatures were cooler than average. The 500mb height were below average. Contrary to your forecast. Your little "hotspot" is an anomaly, so stop trying to pretend it somehow represents the pattern. It doesn't, okay?

 

 

Last week was solidly above normal in Seattle and in the 80s on 3 days (counting the 80 at WFO SEA when were playing in the water in front of their building).   It was a warm week overall that ended cooler.   No spin at all.   I have to consider Idaho and Oregon when saying it was a warm week?   

 

Sunday - Thursday:

 

+3

0

+3

+4

+5

 

Too warm for yardwork on a few days.    Boat was a good place to be.