TT-SEA Posted July 31, 2016 Author Report Share Posted July 31, 2016 It's been warm almost the entire second half of July in the Puget Sound region. You can pick any period and it will show warm. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted July 31, 2016 Report Share Posted July 31, 2016 Both 7/22 and 7/23 were cooler than average everywhere, even @ SEA. We were discussing the cooldown Wednesday through Saturday, 7/21-7/23. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted July 31, 2016 Report Share Posted July 31, 2016 So, that was most certainly not a warm pattern for the majority of the WA/OR lowlands. From 7/21 through 7/23, PDX, SEA, & OLM were cooler than average on 2/3 days. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted July 31, 2016 Report Share Posted July 31, 2016 That convo had nothing to do with the 7/25 to 7/29 warm-up. You almost got me. You failed, but it was a solid attempt. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted July 31, 2016 Author Report Share Posted July 31, 2016 Both 7/22 and 7/23 were cooler than average everywhere, even @ SEA. We were discussing the cooldown Wednesday through Saturday, 7/21-7/23. When? We were looking at the warm spell dummy. You said model runs showed cool and marine layer through 7/28 on that day in the middle of this discussion. Presumably just to be a d*ck since it was clearly going to be warm and both Matt and I knew it. You are so tangled up its best to just throw the line away. You are running in circles now. I am just going to let you wear yourself out until you go to bed. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted July 31, 2016 Author Report Share Posted July 31, 2016 That convo had nothing to do with the 7/25 to 7/29 warm-up. You almost got me. You failed, but it was a solid attempt. Ha! Thank God huh? But it was about this past week and the warm spell. You just missed it then and now. Oh well. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted July 31, 2016 Report Share Posted July 31, 2016 When? We were looking at the warm spell dummy. You said model runs showed cool and marine layer through 7/28 on that day in the middle of this discussion. Presumably just to be a d*ck since it was clearly going to be warm and both Matt and I knew it. You are so tangled up its best to just throw the line away. You are running in circles now. I am just going to let you wear yourself out and go to bed. That argument had nothing to do with the warm spell. Should I post more timestamps from your images? Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted July 31, 2016 Author Report Share Posted July 31, 2016 That argument had nothing to do with the warm spell. Should I post more timestamps from your images? Sure Phil... that will keep you busy for awhile. Go play. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted July 31, 2016 Report Share Posted July 31, 2016 But it was about this past week and the warm spell. You just missed it then and now. Oh well.Trust me, don't do this. I'm about to blow you out of the water. That entire argument was focused on the 7/21-7/23 period, seven model images in that chain, with all of them having timestamps before 7/25. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted July 31, 2016 Author Report Share Posted July 31, 2016 Trust me, don't do this. I'm about to blow you out of the water.That entire argument was focused on the 7/21-7/23 period, seven model images in that chain, with all of them having timestamps before 7/25. OK Phil... go play! Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted July 31, 2016 Report Share Posted July 31, 2016 Timing just a bit off here. Still have not looked at August... but now it seems like a troughy period will be possible between maybe the 5th -15th and then another round of ridging to some extent. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted July 31, 2016 Author Report Share Posted July 31, 2016 Timing just a bit off here. Aug 2 or 5... whatever. Just a couple ULLs this week with some warm days mixed in. Sounds great. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted July 31, 2016 Report Share Posted July 31, 2016 More like a week off. Troughing resumed today and should continue for the foreseeable future. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted July 31, 2016 Author Report Share Posted July 31, 2016 More like a week off. Troughing resumed today and should continue for the foreseeable future. Nah. Tomorrow and Monday are almost a weak ridge. Wednesday as well. Plenty of warm days on the 00Z GFS for the Puget Sound region. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted July 31, 2016 Report Share Posted July 31, 2016 Nah. Tomorrow and Monday are almost a weak ridge. Wednesday as well. Plenty of warm days on the 00Z GFS for the Puget Sound region.Weak ridge? What are you smoking? Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted July 31, 2016 Report Share Posted July 31, 2016 Whatever you're smoking, I want some of it. Would like to take a break from reality myself. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted July 31, 2016 Author Report Share Posted July 31, 2016 Whatever you're smoking, I want some of it. Would like to take a break from reality myself. Here we go again. From the SEA NWS tonight: An upper level trough presently over the region will slowly moveeast and is expected to be over the northern Great Basin earlySunday evening. A short wave ridge will follow on its heels. Weak upper level ridging will bring dry and slightly warmerweather on Wednesday. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted July 31, 2016 Report Share Posted July 31, 2016 Do you know what a shortwave is? A shortwave ridge imbedded within a longwave trough is still a trough if you're under it, doofus. Your 500mb heights and temperatures will both be below average under the longwave trough. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted July 31, 2016 Author Report Share Posted July 31, 2016 Do you know what a shortwave is? A shortwave ridge imbedded within a longwave trough is still a trough, doofus. What frickin ever. Who cares. More above normal troughing in August then. Because there are numerous days that will above normal in the Puget Sound region in the next 2 weeks. You can call it whatever the hell you want. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted July 31, 2016 Report Share Posted July 31, 2016 What is your forecast for August? I'm thinking cooler than July, below average almost everywhere. 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted July 31, 2016 Author Report Share Posted July 31, 2016 What is your forecast for August? I'm thinking cooler than July, below average almost everywhere. Based on local history... and given that we had our normal cool, damp periods in June and the first part of July... the general theme should be nice weather in August. Not sure what that means at the upper levels or for the entire PNW. But I am guessing the Puget Sound region is as warm in August as July. All depends on whether we have a genuine rainy period which can happen later in the month. That would be a likely way the month ends cooler than July or even cooler than normal. We will see. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted July 31, 2016 Report Share Posted July 31, 2016 I'm thinking similar to July. Seasonably coolish to start. Warmer for the second half, relative to average. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted July 31, 2016 Report Share Posted July 31, 2016 But the 7/15 to 7/25 period was not warm at PDX...Airportcentricity reigns supreme! Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted July 31, 2016 Author Report Share Posted July 31, 2016 Airportcentricity reigns supreme! This had nothing to do with that period anyways. Conversation was on Sunday 7/17 for the mid and long range... which was the following week. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted July 31, 2016 Report Share Posted July 31, 2016 FWIW... the WRF shows sunshine most of the day on Saturday with highs still getting close to 80 in Seattle and then full marine push on Sunday morning with clouds clearing in the afternoon and then sunny most of Monday. That is/was a good forecast. Hearing clouds until 3pm today. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted July 31, 2016 Author Report Share Posted July 31, 2016 That is/was a good forecast. Hearing clouds until 3pm today. SEA was a little cooler than I thought. It was 78/79 in Issaquah late yesterday though. Full marine push was timed perfectly as well as the clearing (which does not always happen after a push). Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted August 9, 2016 Author Report Share Posted August 9, 2016 They'll flip cool for late August IMO. Hifreq WAF props into lowfreq Niña waveguide by the 3rd week of August should result in NPAC height rises during the 4th week of the month, and downstream western troughing from then into at least the first week of September.Great. Thanks for the update to tell us troughing will eventually return. August might be playing out a little less troughy than you indicated earlier. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted August 9, 2016 Report Share Posted August 9, 2016 Great. Thanks for the update to tell us troughing will eventually return. August might be playing out a little less troughy than you indicated earlier.Uh, I said mid-August ridging, late-August troughing a few days ago, and you agreed with me. What's wrong with you, dude? Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted August 9, 2016 Author Report Share Posted August 9, 2016 Uh, I said mid-August ridging, late-August troughing a few days ago, and you agreed with me. What's wrong with you, dude?Don't argue with Phil! I remember hearing August would be very troughy at one point from you. Can't remember all your updates. Glad too see it looks nicer now. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted August 9, 2016 Report Share Posted August 9, 2016 Don't argue with Phil! I remember hearing August would be very troughy at one point from you. Can't remember all your updates. Glad too see it looks nicer now.This is gonna be hilarious. Soon the models will start trending cool for late August as that ridge start retrograding offshore, and you'll throw yet another temper tantrum. I bet we have three or four "Tim" threads by August 20th. 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted August 9, 2016 Author Report Share Posted August 9, 2016 This is gonna be hilarious. Soon the models will start trending cool for late August as that ridge start retrograding offshore, and you'll throw yet another temper tantrum. I bet we have three or four "Tim" threads by August 20th. I have not thrown any temper tantrums the entire summer. Is this your default response? I have pretty much praised this summer. And said it was unfortunate that SeaFair Sunday was cool. Of course we were not there anyways. Otherwise it's been a great summer overall. I think you just make this stuff up because you don't know what else to say. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted August 9, 2016 Author Report Share Posted August 9, 2016 You said no support for sustained ridging in August. What would constitute sustained ridging?He does not even talk facts... just turns it personal immediately. And he defines everything as troughing here unless it 95-100 degrees. Call it whatever you want. Looks nice. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted August 9, 2016 Report Share Posted August 9, 2016 He does not even talk facts... just turns it personal immediately. And he defines everything as troughing here unless it 95-100 degrees. Call it whatever you want. Looks nice.Spin spin spin! Cha cha slide! It's almost like you're allergic to facts. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted August 9, 2016 Author Report Share Posted August 9, 2016 Spin spin spin! It's almost like you're allergic to facts. I have said nothing today. I was expecting August to be very troughy based on your comments alone back in July. Not looking that way now. Looks nicer. And in general we have loved this summer. My wife's favorite summer in our 12 years in the Seattle area. Call it what you want... attack me for saying nothing at all. Reflects bad on you. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted August 9, 2016 Report Share Posted August 9, 2016 I have not thrown any temper tantrums the entire summer. Is this your default response? I have pretty much praised this summer. And said it was unfortunate that SeaFair Sunday was cool. Of course we were not there anyways. Otherwise it's been a great summer overall. I think you just make this stuff up because you don't know what else to say.No to be pompous, but I've pretty much nailed the overall summer pattern. Almost to a tee. You've been flailing in the wind since April, minus one solid call on timing during July. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted August 9, 2016 Author Report Share Posted August 9, 2016 No to be pompous, but I've pretty much nailed the overall summer pattern. Almost to a tee. You've been flailing in the wind since April, minus one solid call on timing during July.Wow. You are just itching to fight. We have been over this a million times. Fight with yourself. Or maybe just roll with it. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted August 9, 2016 Report Share Posted August 9, 2016 I have said nothing today. I was expecting August to be very troughy based on your comments alone back in July. Not looking that way now. Looks nicer. And in general we have loved this summer. My wife's favorite summer in our 12 years in the Seattle area. Call it what you want... attack me for saying nothing at all. Reflects bad on you.You started it all (again) with an attempted backhanded jab at my forecast. You never learn, dude. It's August 9th, and you're making baseless claims beyond even clown range GFS territory. You're transparent as f**k. At least try to be somewhat stealthy with your trolling. 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted August 9, 2016 Report Share Posted August 9, 2016 Again, it's August 9th, and after a very cool first 1/4th of the Month you say: August might be playing out a little less troughy than you indicated earlier.Which makes no sense because I argued for mid-month ridging and late month troughing (for a troughy month overall), and late-August is still largely out of range. Again, obvious troll attempt. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted August 9, 2016 Author Report Share Posted August 9, 2016 You started it all (again) with an attempted backhanded jab at my forecast. You never learn, dude. It's August 9th, and you're making baseless claims beyond even clown range GFS territory. You're transparent as f**k. At least try to be somewhat stealthy with your trolling.I learned you call most everything troughing and its still nice. And don't really care. August is looking nice as well now. No point to this discussion as usual. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted August 9, 2016 Author Report Share Posted August 9, 2016 Again, it's August 9th, and after a very cool first 1/4th of the Month you say: Which makes no sense because I argued for mid-month ridging and late month troughing (for a troughy month overall), and late-August is still largely out of range. Again, obvious troll attempt.Whatever. So bored with this. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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