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The Tim and Phil thread


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It's been warm almost the entire second half of July in the Puget Sound region. You can pick any period and it will show warm.

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Both 7/22 and 7/23 were cooler than average everywhere, even @ SEA. We were discussing the cooldown Wednesday through Saturday, 7/21-7/23. :lol:

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So, that was most certainly not a warm pattern for the majority of the WA/OR lowlands.

 

From 7/21 through 7/23, PDX, SEA, & OLM were cooler than average on 2/3 days.

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That convo had nothing to do with the 7/25 to 7/29 warm-up. :lol:

 

You almost got me. You failed, but it was a solid attempt.

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Both 7/22 and 7/23 were cooler than average everywhere, even @ SEA. We were discussing the cooldown Wednesday through Saturday, 7/21-7/23. :lol:

 

 

When?  

 

We were looking at the warm spell dummy.     You said model runs showed cool and marine layer through 7/28 on that day in the middle of this discussion.   Presumably just to be a d*ck since it was clearly going to be warm and both Matt and I knew it.   

 

You are so tangled up its best to just throw the line away.   

 

You are running in circles now.   I am just going to let you wear yourself out until you go to bed.   :)

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That convo had nothing to do with the 7/25 to 7/29 warm-up. :lol:

 

You almost got me. You failed, but it was a solid attempt.

 

Ha!

 

Thank God huh?

 

But it was about this past week and the warm spell.   You just missed it then and now.   Oh well.  

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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When?

 

We were looking at the warm spell dummy. You said model runs showed cool and marine layer through 7/28 on that day in the middle of this discussion. Presumably just to be a d*ck since it was clearly going to be warm and both Matt and I knew it.

 

You are so tangled up its best to just throw the line away.

 

You are running in circles now. I am just going to let you wear yourself out and go to bed. :)

That argument had nothing to do with the warm spell.

 

Should I post more timestamps from your images? :lol:

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That argument had nothing to do with the warm spell.

 

Should I post more timestamps from your images? :lol:

 

Sure Phil... that will keep you busy for awhile.   

 

Go play.

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But it was about this past week and the warm spell. You just missed it then and now. Oh well.

Trust me, don't do this. I'm about to blow you out of the water.

 

That entire argument was focused on the 7/21-7/23 period, seven model images in that chain, with all of them having timestamps before 7/25. :lol:

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Trust me, don't do this. I'm about to blow you out of the water.

That entire argument was focused on the 7/21-7/23 period, seven model images in that chain, with all of them having timestamps before 7/25. :lol:

OK Phil... go play!

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Timing just a bit off here. ;)

 

Still have not looked at August... but now it seems like a troughy period will be possible between maybe the 5th -15th and then another round of ridging to some extent.

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Timing just a bit off here. ;)

 

 

Aug 2 or 5... whatever.

 

Just a couple ULLs this week with some warm days mixed in.   

 

 

Sounds great.

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More like a week off. Troughing resumed today and should continue for the foreseeable future.

 

Nah.

 

Tomorrow and Monday are almost a weak ridge.

 

Wednesday as well.  

 

Plenty of warm days on the 00Z GFS for the Puget Sound region. 

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Nah.

 

Tomorrow and Monday are almost a weak ridge.

 

Wednesday as well.

 

Plenty of warm days on the 00Z GFS for the Puget Sound region.

Weak ridge? What are you smoking?

 

image.png

image.png

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Whatever you're smoking, I want some of it. Would like to take a break from reality myself. :lol:

 

 

Here we go again.  

 

From the SEA NWS tonight:

 

An upper level trough presently over the region will slowly move

east and is expected to be over the northern Great Basin early

Sunday evening. A short wave ridge will follow on its heels.

 

Weak upper level ridging will bring dry and slightly warmer

weather on Wednesday. 

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Do you know what a shortwave is? :lol:

 

A shortwave ridge imbedded within a longwave trough is still a trough if you're under it, doofus. Your 500mb heights and temperatures will both be below average under the longwave trough.

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Do you know what a shortwave is? :lol:

 

A shortwave ridge imbedded within a longwave trough is still a trough, doofus.

 

What frickin ever.  

 

Who cares.  

 

More above normal troughing in August then.  Because there are numerous days that will above normal in the Puget Sound region in the next 2 weeks.   

 

You can call it whatever the hell you want.  

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What is your forecast for August?

 

I'm thinking cooler than July, below average almost everywhere.

 

Based on local history... and given that we had our normal cool, damp periods in June and the first part of July... the general theme should be nice weather in August.

 

Not sure what that means at the upper levels or for the entire PNW.   

 

But I am guessing the Puget Sound region is as warm in August as July.     All depends on whether we have a genuine rainy period which can happen later in the month.   That would be a likely way the month ends cooler than July or even cooler than normal.   

 

We will see.

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Airportcentricity reigns supreme!

 

 

This had nothing to do with that period anyways.

 

Conversation was on Sunday 7/17 for the mid and long range... which was the following week.   

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FWIW... the WRF shows sunshine most of the day on Saturday with highs still getting close to 80 in Seattle and then full marine push on Sunday morning with clouds clearing in the afternoon and then sunny most of Monday.

 

That is/was a good forecast. Hearing clouds until 3pm today.

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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That is/was a good forecast. Hearing clouds until 3pm today.

 

 

SEA was a little cooler than I thought.   It was 78/79 in Issaquah late yesterday though.

 

Full marine push was timed perfectly as well as the clearing (which does not always happen after a push).

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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  • 2 weeks later...

They'll flip cool for late August IMO. Hifreq WAF props into lowfreq Niña waveguide by the 3rd week of August should result in NPAC height rises during the 4th week of the month, and downstream western troughing from then into at least the first week of September.

Great. Thanks for the update to tell us troughing will eventually return. :)

 

August might be playing out a little less troughy than you indicated earlier.

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Great. Thanks for the update to tell us troughing will eventually return. :)

 

August might be playing out a little less troughy than you indicated earlier.

Uh, I said mid-August ridging, late-August troughing a few days ago, and you agreed with me. :lol:

 

What's wrong with you, dude?

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Uh, I said mid-August ridging, late-August troughing a few days ago, and you agreed with me. :lol:

 

What's wrong with you, dude?

Don't argue with Phil! I remember hearing August would be very troughy at one point from you. Can't remember all your updates. Glad too see it looks nicer now.

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Don't argue with Phil! I remember hearing August would be very troughy at one point from you. Can't remember all your updates. Glad too see it looks nicer now.

This is gonna be hilarious. Soon the models will start trending cool for late August as that ridge start retrograding offshore, and you'll throw yet another temper tantrum.

 

I bet we have three or four "Tim" threads by August 20th. :lol:

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This is gonna be hilarious. Soon the models will start trending cool for late August as that ridge start retrograding offshore, and you'll throw yet another temper tantrum.

 

I bet we have three or four "Tim" threads by August 20th. :lol:

I have not thrown any temper tantrums the entire summer. :)

 

Is this your default response? I have pretty much praised this summer. And said it was unfortunate that SeaFair Sunday was cool. Of course we were not there anyways. Otherwise it's been a great summer overall.

 

I think you just make this stuff up because you don't know what else to say.

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You said no support for sustained ridging in August. What would constitute sustained ridging?

He does not even talk facts... just turns it personal immediately.

 

And he defines everything as troughing here unless it 95-100 degrees.

 

Call it whatever you want. Looks nice.

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He does not even talk facts... just turns it personal immediately.

 

And he defines everything as troughing here unless it 95-100 degrees.

 

Call it whatever you want. Looks nice.

Spin spin spin! Cha cha slide!

 

It's almost like you're allergic to facts. :lol:

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Spin spin spin! It's almost like you're allergic to facts. :lol:

I have said nothing today.

 

I was expecting August to be very troughy based on your comments alone back in July. Not looking that way now. Looks nicer.

 

And in general we have loved this summer. My wife's favorite summer in our 12 years in the Seattle area.

 

Call it what you want... attack me for saying nothing at all. Reflects bad on you.

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I have not thrown any temper tantrums the entire summer. :)

 

Is this your default response? I have pretty much praised this summer. And said it was unfortunate that SeaFair Sunday was cool. Of course we were not there anyways. Otherwise it's been a great summer overall.

 

I think you just make this stuff up because you don't know what else to say.

No to be pompous, but I've pretty much nailed the overall summer pattern. Almost to a tee.

 

You've been flailing in the wind since April, minus one solid call on timing during July.

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No to be pompous, but I've pretty much nailed the overall summer pattern. Almost to a tee.

 

You've been flailing in the wind since April, minus one solid call on timing during July.

Wow. You are just itching to fight. We have been over this a million times.

 

Fight with yourself.

 

Or maybe just roll with it.

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I have said nothing today.

 

I was expecting August to be very troughy based on your comments alone back in July. Not looking that way now. Looks nicer.

 

And in general we have loved this summer. My wife's favorite summer in our 12 years in the Seattle area.

 

Call it what you want... attack me for saying nothing at all. Reflects bad on you.

You started it all (again) with an attempted backhanded jab at my forecast. You never learn, dude.

 

It's August 9th, and you're making baseless claims beyond even clown range GFS territory. You're transparent as f**k. At least try to be somewhat stealthy with your trolling.

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Again, it's August 9th, and after a very cool first 1/4th of the Month you say:

 

August might be playing out a little less troughy than you indicated earlier.

Which makes no sense because I argued for mid-month ridging and late month troughing (for a troughy month overall), and late-August is still largely out of range. :lol:

 

Again, obvious troll attempt.

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You started it all (again) with an attempted backhanded jab at my forecast. You never learn, dude.

 

It's August 9th, and you're making baseless claims beyond even clown range GFS territory. You're transparent as f**k. At least try to be somewhat stealthy with your trolling.

I learned you call most everything troughing and its still nice.

 

And don't really care.

 

August is looking nice as well now.

 

No point to this discussion as usual.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Again, it's August 9th, and after a very cool first 1/4th of the Month you say:

 

 

Which makes no sense because I argued for mid-month ridging and late month troughing (for a troughy month overall), and late-August is still largely out of range. :lol:

 

Again, obvious troll attempt.

Whatever. So bored with this.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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