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August 2016 Observations and Discussions


Tom

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Here we are, the last month of meteorological summer.  Does this summer feel like it's gone by way to fast???  I thought it'd be nice to recap where we have gone so far this summer and where we may be heading.  The media has been hyping a hot and dry summer for a lot of the lower 48 but, in fact, that hasn't been really true for parts of the Plains/Midwest/Lakes.

 

Over the last 60 days, except for a few pockets of below normal precip in KS/NE and MI, our sub-forum has done fairly well and no long term droughts have been established.  Having the knowledge of the LRC, we were expecting transient weather throughout our summer season.

 

http://www.hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis/nwscr/60dPDeptNWSCR.png

 

 

http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/data/pngs/current/current_usdm.png

 

 

As for temps, they have been very warm overall for much of the country, especially in June, when we kicked off summer much above normal.

 

http://www.hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis/Jun16TDeptUS.png

 

Even after the "heat wave" we just endured, temps in July have been near normal in the Midwest (except for the southern Plains/Lakes).

 

http://www.hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis/30dTDeptUS.png

 

 

 

Looking ahead, I expect a ridge of HP to develop once again next week and usher in another heat wave in the central Plains, but this looks to break down later next week as a NW Flow pattern locks in.

 

Here are the latest trends on the CFSv2 for August...looks like the Monsoon season is going to continue to deliver much needed precip in the 4 corners region/inter mountain west.  The LRC suggests a "wetter" pattern to develop in August as well so this map in general fits the idea of what we may expect in August.

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/monthly/images/CFSv2.NaT2m.20160729.201608.gif

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/monthly/images/CFSv2.NaPrec.20160729.201608.gif

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An interesting pattern is poised to develop over N.A. as we open August.  The CFSv2, along with various global models suggest a trough for the majority of the month to develop in the Arctic and near the Archipelago region of CA.

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/imagesInd3/glbz700MonInd1.gif

 

During the first part of the month, as the jet retreats to its weakest point, we know that this part of the LRC typically produced a cooler pattern for the central CONUS.  Even as we enter the 7th and final cycle of the LRC, we still will be impacted by the cyclical pattern that evolved last October.  Recall, that during this period the PV was very strong and well established for the majority of last winter and I'm seeing signs that it will begin to strengthen as the seasons slowly change way up north, esp later in the month.  It's not until very late in Sept when we will see a different pattern slowly begin.

 

The latest weekly run of the CFSv2 may be a bit overdone on the cooling, but it certainly tries to fit the pattern for this month.

 

http://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/weekly/images1/wk1.wk2_20160729.NAsfcT.gif

http://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/weekly/images1/wk3.wk4_20160729.NAsfcT.gif

 

 

 

Coincidentally, when the pattern cools enough way up north, the GFS has been def hinting at accumulating snowfall in the Archipelago region and Arctic over the next 10 days.  Near Greenland, an up tick in snowfall as the melt season slowly wanes.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016073000/gfs_asnow_namer_41.png

 

 

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Definitely looking forward to getting out of the hot part of the cycle imby as the Euro has displayed all the way through day 10. Looking like the showers and storms the past few days will have erased the D0 and D1 drought down here.

 

I think everything is looking great to close out the last month of summer. Most places in our forum have already crossed over the average temperature peak for the year with the exception of possibly Kansas (this week) and my area (next week).

 

Lots of things to watch this month, as Tom said, and I will definitely be visiting this thread several times a day from here on in.

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Latest CFSv2 trend for August, now it's trending warmer..not sure about that, but it is however, showing a wetter look.

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/monthly/images/CFSv2.NaT2m.20160731.201608.gif

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/monthly/images/CFSv2.NaPrec.20160731.201608.gif

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Hello August!  I can't believe we are already entering the last month of met summer.  This month, I have a lot of planned out door events, including, my nephew/niece Christening party this Sunday after Church.  I've been chosen to be the proud God Father.  I have no kids so it's a proud moment.  Oh, and yes, can't forget about the Air and Water Show on the 20th-22nd.

 

Anyway, back to weather...here' the latest CanSIPS run for August...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/cansips/2016080100/cansips_apcpna_month_us_1.png

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/cansips/2016080100/cansips_T2ma_us_1.png

 

The model had a decent idea on the placement of the cooling and above normal precip last month for July, but over did it in the Plains.  I guess the idea that you can grab out of this is that there doesn't appear to be a region in the central CONUS that will endure extreme heat for extended periods.  I believe there will be plenty of fronts this month with ample chances of precip.

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Here is the latest updated CPC Outlook for August..still maintaining a similar look from it's previous run, but a bit more near normal temps where they have been HOT, esp in the central/southern Plains.

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/lead14/off15_temp.gif

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/lead14/off15_prcp.gif

 

 

In general, we can see a clear trend in the modeling of placing a cooler/wetter look in the central states from what we have endured thus far this summer.  I'm actually kinda hopeful we don't see too many 90's this month.  I miss having temps in the 70's/80's with lower dewpoints.  It's not that enjoyable having a bon fire in the humidity!

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I'd say that agrees with the CanSIPS pretty well. I think the last 10-15 days of August we should really start to see some cooling in the core of the US. Especially if the hurricane season is really going to take off in the next few weeks. There's some looks in the longer ranges of the Euro that argue for more troughing than what is actually shown as well.

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The summer monsoon has been on fire of late.  It seems stories like these are pretty common, but this video clip is amazing!  Check out the amount of baseball sized hail fell in Colorado Springs in July.

 

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/colorado-springs-july-hail-storm_us_579ecf68e4b0e2e15eb63f01?utm_content=buffer091f8&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter.com&utm_campaign=buffer

 

Looks like another beauteous weekend in store near the Lakes as HP will dominate the region.  However, more humid weather and storms are in the forecast.  I love coming out in the morning and see the "morning dew".  Everything is so lush and green out there.

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Took these maps off of Accuweather's Blog and it takes the Euro's weekly long range model output into account.  Basically, the EC is warm and the central CONUS seems to be cooler and wetter, agreeing with the other modeling.

 

http://vortex.accuweather.com/adc2004/pub/includes/columns/miscellaneous/2016/590x363_08021731_aug2a.png

 

 

 

http://vortex.accuweather.com/adc2004/pub/includes/columns/miscellaneous/2016/590x363_08021732_aug2b.png

 

http://vortex.accuweather.com/adc2004/pub/includes/columns/miscellaneous/2016/590x363_08021733_aug2c.png

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LM water temps look quite warm for swimmers...wonder if we hit 80F this summer.

 

Co4WtxIWEAAVtGz.jpg

 

 

 

Both GFS/EURO showing a re-curving Typhoon for the first time this season which may impact our weather in the Week 2 range.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016080306/gfs_pres_wind_fe_24.png

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2016080300/ecmwf_mslp_uv850_fe_7.png

 

 

Could be another clue to a cooler August month.  Wonder how much this will buckle the jet stream come next week near Alaska/Bearing Sea.  

 

 

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-AO/NAO in tandem later next weekend may spell a decidedly cool pattern for the central CONUS.  12z EPS showing a nice trough signal...might be a pretty decent cool down.  Typhoon Rule may also assist in the pattern alignment.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf-ens/2016080312/ecmwf-ens_T850a_namer_11.png

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I mentioned that in the wrong thread. Lol. You beat me to it here. AO is dead in the water right now so definitely will be nice if it restarts its trend in the negative territory going into the Autumn months. Definitely hoping this is the early stages of the pattern that is to rule this fall/winter.

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Taking a look at the latest JMA weeklies, they don't really show much of a consistent warm pattern for a lot of our region.  In fact, blocking over the top seems to be the main theme this month.  During Week 2, it's showing a pretty big trough right over the northern Plains/Lakes/Northeast.  It seems to continue Week 3 & 4 with a western N.A. ridge building.

 

 

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I know the analogs suggest an overall hot August, but I personally don't think that it will.  Overall, when the month closes out, it'll be near normal IMO for places north of the southern Plains.  There is a lot of precip being forecast in the heartland and close to the Lakes this month.  I like the chances for plenty of fronts rolling through, especially later on mid month.

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The western Pacific looks to come on fire.  Both GFS/EURO are showing another re-curving super Typhoon a week later after the first one hits near Japan in 4-5 days.  It'll be interesting to see how this will effect our downstream weather pattern as we head into mid and late August.

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Waters are boiling near Baja/Mexico region...if there is any storm development later this month through October, could spell trouble down the road down there.  Monsoons have been tapping into that energy over the last week or so.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/ocean/cdas-sflux_ssta_epac_1.png

 

 

Edit: Just checked, and remnants of what was Hurricane Earl that hit Belize, tries to redevelop and target the Baja area Mon/Tue.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2016080500/ecmwf_mslp_uv850_namer_5.png

 

 

 

 

Speaking of warm water, LM shoreline hit 80F!

 

 

 

CpC-LlnWEAAICiy.jpg

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Last evening's storms were just what was needed, a nice widespread soaking.  I picked up 1.09".  There were strong to severe wind reports around the area, but I didn't see any of it.  I did get a lightning strike very near my house, the closest strike in years.

 

It appears some of Earl's moisture may eventually work its way up into our region late next week.  Models are pretty active by then.

season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Had kind of a cool event yesterday here in the Omaha metro. It was very hot and humid yesterday 94 with a 78 degree dewpoint and a cold front was moving through. Luckily, there wasn't a lot of shear to produce a lot of severe storms, but we still had 2 tornadoes in the area. Both were classified as landspouts as the storms they formed from weren't true supercells. Shear was running only about 20 knots I believe. However, the 2nd tornado was actually a waterspout as it dropped right on Lake Manawa on the southern side of Council Bluffs, IA. It lasted 15 minutes and was almost completely stationary! I've attached some links to videos and pics.

 

http://www.ketv.com/news/photos-storm-rolls-through-thursday/41057356

http://www.ketv.com/news/closeup-video-of-tornado-over-western-iowa/41058986

http://www.ketv.com/news/waterspout-churns-over-iowa-lake/41066412

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ixu7Ahw5T_4

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gYqa7P6pBW0

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From Accuweather blog...long range outlook into the first part of September...

 

http://vortex.accuweather.com/adc2004/pub/includes/columns/miscellaneous/2016/590x363_08051532_aug5a.png

 

 

 

 

http://vortex.accuweather.com/adc2004/pub/includes/columns/miscellaneous/2016/590x363_08051533_aug5b.png

 

 

http://vortex.accuweather.com/adc2004/pub/includes/columns/miscellaneous/2016/590x363_08051534_aug5c.png

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With HP locked right over the Lakes, I've been waiting for a nice, cool and low dewpoint morning like today...feels refreshing with a breeze coming off the lake.  We are going to be spoiled with yet another Top 5 weekend so far this Summer.  Just epic weather conditions...sunny skies, highs near 80F, low dewpoints and a light breeze off the lake.

 

Get out and enjoy the lake this weekend...shoreline temps all along IL/IN/MI in the mid/upper 70's, Navy-Pier hit 81F!

 

http://www.glerl.noaa.gov/res/glcfs/ncast/mswt-00.gif

 

 

CpHncVeW8AApRgy.jpg

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I saw reports of Funnel clouds over LM yesterday.  Here is a picture of a smaller one...850's were cold enough to produce an unstable environment over the lake.

 

CpNngHqVUAEX8Uj.jpg

 

 

Heat and Humidity build back in again this week for a few days, but the models are bringing yet another HP system over the Lakes next weekend!   Keep it coming Mother Nature.  It's been a common theme this summer.

 

 

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Nice cool shot being advertised on both the Euro/GFS next weekend...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2016080712/ecmwf_T850a_us_7.png

 

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2016080712/ecmwf_T850a_us_8.png

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I keep watching the models in the far east and both the GEFS/EPS show a pretty darn enhanced stormy pattern developing in the western Pacific near Japan.  JMA Weeklies last week showed a troughy pattern developing Week 2-4.  Could this storm pattern be correlating somewhat with the East Asia Theory?  Haven't talked about this theory since last cold season.  I think it will start impacting our weather pattern as we move on this month.

 

Day 10 GEFS/EPS...both models are showing some monster runs in the western Pacific.  I love tracking weather across the world, even though its 1,000's of miles away from here and it can still influence our weather pattern down the road.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2016080718/gfs-ens_z500a_fe_41.png

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf-ens/2016080712/ecmwf-ens_z500a_fe_11.png

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As the Arctic region prepares its slow transition towards Autumn, the sun's angle lowering each day, it's more than likely temps will trend below freezing this week.  More snows will fall over the next 10 days near Greenland and over the Arctic.

 

http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/plots/meanTarchive/meanT_2016.png

 

 

Snows will probably stick where there is ice near the Pole and Greenland....

 

http://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims/ims_gif/DATA/cursnow_alaska.gif

 

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016080712/gfs_asnow_namer_41.png

 

Greenland doing pretty good with the lack of ice melt of late...brief blip in mid July though...

 

http://nsidc.org/greenland-today/images/greenland_melt_area_plot_tmb.png

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EPS/GEFS/CFSv2 all pointing towards an active W PAC near Japan which in turn builds a trough south of the Aleutians and begins the process of building the western CONUS ridge about Day 9-10.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/cfs-avg/2016080800/cfs-avg_z500aMean_namer_3.png

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2016080800/ecmwf_z500a_namer_11.png

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2016080806/gfs-ens_z500a_namer_41.png

 

IMO, this will be driving our weather pattern for the 2nd half of August.  More frequent cold fronts and plenty of chances of rain could be in the forecast if this comes close to fruition.  I actually like where this pattern could be heading.  Looking forward to a cooler pattern TBH.

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An interesting phenomena happened yesterday in the city, near Midway airport.  As the lake breeze converged with the SW flow over the land, a land spout spun up near the SW side.  Here are some pictures...it's been 10 years since the last time something like this happened.

 

CpeTkuKWYAAI4tX.jpg

 

CpeTkuVWcAAjz1U.jpg

 

CpfInTHUkAMFwkp.jpg

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All weeks of the Euro shifting colder in the central US through the opening weeks of September. Could be a cooler than avg close to august for most of us.

The LRC suggests a pretty strong cold front to swing through that could spark severe wx around Labor Day weekend.  Might be our first taste of an early autumn air mass.

 

CFSv2 weeklies are really cool in the central states...

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The LRC suggests a pretty strong cold front to swing through that could spark severe wx around Labor Day weekend. Might be our first taste of an early autumn air mass.

 

CFSv2 weeklies are really cool in the central states...

I hope so. I'm counting the days now til fall. I think my hottest day of the year is past me now. Glad to have it out of the way.

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By mid month, both EPS/GEFS ensembles are indicating a fairly quick seasonal strengthening of the PV over the Pole.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf-ens/2016081000/ecmwf-ens_z500a_nhem_7.png

 

GEFS show it holding strong through Week 2...

 

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2016081000/gfs-ens_z500aNormMean_nhem_12.png

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An interesting phenomena happened yesterday in the city, near Midway airport.  As the lake breeze converged with the SW flow over the land, a land spout spun up near the SW side.  Here are some pictures...it's been 10 years since the last time something like this happened.

 

CpeTkuKWYAAI4tX.jpg

 

CpeTkuVWcAAjz1U.jpg

 

CpfInTHUkAMFwkp.jpg

 

Did that damage anything? What were the wind speeds?

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Here's the official reports from the NWS...no damage reports and it was estimated to be a EF-0

 

With the annual Sept waterspouts, Chicago sure gets a variety of interesting wx throughout a year  ;)

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Here's the official reports from the NWS...no damage reports and it was estimated to be a EF-0

 

With the annual Sept waterspouts, Chicago sure gets a variety of interesting wx throughout a year  ;)

 

I have to agree with you.  The wx around here isn't boring, in fact, we have some various weather phenomina during all 4 seasons.  With LM so warm this year, if we can get a pretty decent cool shot later this month...I'm sure we'll see water spouts.  It's interesting, maybe the East Asian Theory will begin to play a role after the 20th.  Models were looking pretty warm, but have recently turned cooler to finish off the month.

 

12z Euro is advertising a pretty good shot of cooler air into the northern Plains by early next weekend.  This air is coming straight down from the Arctic.  It has eyes for the central Plains for the following weekend as the NW NAMER ridge pops Day 8-10.  We'll have to see how this pattern change may play out.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2016081012/ecmwf_T850a_us_11.png

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2016081012/ecmwf_T850_us_11.png

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12z EPS just came in and I like where its heading Day 8-10.  Boy, the Arctic is going to cool very fast with an intensifying PV.  I can't wait to finally turn off my AC and enjoy some cooler wx with low humidity and be able to crack the window open!

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Typhoon Rule coming into fruition nicely...00z Euro showing a deep trough centered near the Lakes by next weekend.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2016081100/ecmwf_z500a_us_10.png

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2016081100/ecmwf_z500a_us_11.png

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Stepped out to a nice rain shower this morning about 4:45 - left puddles on my driveway so it was a decent shower. Ended what was (I think) a 12 day dry streak.  http://www.uswxforums.com/forum/public/style_emoticons/default/smile.png


 


Also, I see KRMY scored another 90º high Wednesday. But again, just 91º and it was 90 or above only (4) hrs.  Yes I've been running my A/C in the evenings to make for good sleeping (especially with the low of only a humid 72) but I remember a lot worse heat than this summer has brought Marshall. '05, '07 and ofc '12 stick out from recent years.


 


@ Tom - I know the colors aren't "temps", but those maps look "cool" (pun intended  ;) )


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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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