August 2016 Observations and Discussions

[Tom]

Did anyone notice NCEP's GFS model's hourly increments are now 1 hour increments instead of 3 hr increments?  I think its pretty neat to have hourly increments up the 120hr.  Anyhow, I'm salivating at this forecast, esp the later...

 

 

 

Meanwhile, for a while now the Euro was only really advertising a sharp cold front passage for this Sat/Sun, but recent 00z run is starting to look like the GFS.  Euro spinning up a GL storm by late Saturday...fitting the LRC quite well...

 

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2016081700/ecmwf_mslpa_us_5.png

 

 

By the following weekend, both models are re-energizing another strong cool shot as the patterns seems to want to lock in with an amplified western N.A. ridge.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2016081700/ecmwf_T850a_us_11.png

[Tom]

My general thinking at the moment is for a continuation of cooler conditions through mid-september with a rebound in temperatures relative to average late September and throughout most of October. I know there's no guidance out yet that supports this but just my 2 cents worth. The rest of this month looks AMAZING for August. Especially down here as far as me.

If it warms up late Sept and October for a few weeks, so be it.  At least by then, the humidity will be long gone and we all can enjoy a more dry, autumnal air mass.

[jaster220]

Just curious here, what's considered "zero" on this MSLP map? I'm presuming for the 2m temps it's relative to season norms, but not certain about your pressure map tbh.

 

 

[Tom]

Just curious here, what's considered "zero" on this MSLP map? I'm presuming for the 2m temps it's relative to season norms, but not certain about your pressure map tbh.

 

20160817 ecmwf_mslpa_us_5.png

I'm assuming the "zero" on the map above means normal pressure anomalies for that period relative to the season norms.

[jaster220]

I'm assuming the "zero" on the map above means normal pressure anomalies for that period relative to the season norms.

 

Me too, but what is that in August? 1010 mb? Just wondering since you have the site privileges if you knew? Maybe it says somewhere exactly?

[NEJeremy]

I'm looking forward to Friday as it looks like it could be pretty active around here. NWS already has a 90% chance of storms for Friday evening and it looks like a decent shot of severe weather too. Then Saturday looks like a fall day with a forecast high of only 73 and an overnight low Saturday night of 52

[Niko]

I have noticed leaves already changing colors on some trees. Last time I saw that this time of the year was around summer 2013. We all know what followed that winter. So, I am thinking, that this might be a sign of things to come down the road.

[Tom]

I have noticed leaves already changing colors on some trees. Last time I saw that this time of the year was around summer 2013. We all know what followed that winter. So, I am thinking, that this might be a sign of things to come down the road.

Some of that may be due to the drought conditions going on in the region...early foliage is caused by the trees being under stress.  I like your optimism!

 

http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/data/pngs/current/current_usdm.png

[OKwx2k4]

I have noticed leaves already changing colors on some trees. Last time I saw that this time of the year was around summer 2013. We all know what followed that winter. So, I am thinking, that this might be a sign of things to come down the road.

I don't really know but speaking of autumn colors, I'm going to have an incredibly beautiful foliage season here in the Ozarks this year with all the extra rains I've picked up over the past 3 or 4 weeks. I can't wait. I think the drought map above is a little off for eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas.

[Tom]

I had not 1, but 2 training cells that hit my place early this morning which prompted a Flood Advisory.  Both were electric and had thunderous lighting strikes but the 2nd cell was the strongest in terms of rainfall.  Had about 1.5"- 2.0" of rain in just about an hour's time with began a little after 6:00am.  It's like Mother Nature filled in the gap that was much needed.  I was shafted from the last 2 events and finally got drenched this morning.

 

2.07" Glenview, 1.71" Morton Grove, 1.54" Des Plaines, 1.31" Hillside

[Tom]

NAM high rez spinning up a rather strong GL storm this weekend.  00z run had a sub 990mb storm near Sault Ste. Marie...prob a bit over done but nonetheless, an interesting storm for late August.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/namconus/2016081800/namconus_mslp_wind_ncus_53.png

[Niko]

Some of that may be due to the drought conditions going on in the region...early foliage is caused by the trees being under stress.  I like your optimism!

 

http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/data/pngs/current/current_usdm.png

[Niko]

Its funny how this only happened that year though. (Summer2013) Not sure if that summer was dry, or wet.

[Niko]

I don't really know but speaking of autumn colors, I'm going to have an incredibly beautiful foliage season here in the Ozarks this year with all the extra rains I've picked up over the past 3 or 4 weeks. I can't wait. I think the drought map above is a little off for eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas.

It will look Awesome i bet.

[Tom]

Rare and powerful Summer storm system is going to cut up towards the western lakes this weekend.  NAM is indicating a healthy defo band look to this system on the NW side.  That looks like a pretty storm, only if it were during Winter!  I guess this could be a taste of what nature may be delivering later on this cold season.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/namconus/2016081818/namconus_ref_ncus_40.png

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam4km/2016081818/nam4km_ref_ncus_40.png

[Niko]

Rare and powerful Summer storm system is going to cut up towards the western lakes this weekend.  NAM is indicating a healthy defo band look to this system on the NW side.  That looks like a pretty storm, only if it were during Winter!  I guess this could be a taste of what nature may be delivering later on this cold season.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/namconus/2016081818/namconus_ref_ncus_40.png

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam4km/2016081818/nam4km_ref_ncus_40.png

That type of track would spell rain and wind for my area and heavy snows well north and west. NE Minn. would get clobbered by a ton of snow.

[Tom]

That type of track would spell rain and wind for my area and heavy snows well north and west. NE Minn. would get clobbered by a ton of snow.

I'm not really focused on the track with that comment, just saying if this would have been a wound up storm during the cold season, it would be a nice one to track.

 

Meanwhile, I forgot to post the latest JMA weeklies that came out today.  Basically, nothing has really changed and its agreeing with the CFSv2/GEFS/EPS on where the trough/ridge placement is being set up in the N PAC and over N.A.

[Tom]

Just saw on the news that the F-35 Raptor is going to be flying at the Air & Water Show this weekend!  That jet is sick!  Saturday looks like a wash out and Sunday maybe the only real good day but we may have to deal with low stratus clouds and possible showers.  Doh!  I really hope Sunday will end up being a better day for the show.  Can't make it today for the practice runs which sucks.  Wouldn't matter anyway because a line of weak storms is heading down SE ATM.

 

http://climate.cod.edu/data/nexrad/LOT/N0Q/LOT.N0Q.20160819.1415.gif

[Geos]

Just saw on the news that the F-35 Raptor is going to be flying at the Air & Water Show this weekend!  That jet is sick!  Saturday looks like a wash out and Sunday maybe the only real good day but we may have to deal with low stratus clouds and possible showers.  Doh!  I really hope Sunday will end up being a better day for the show.  Can't make it today for the practice runs which sucks.  Wouldn't matter anyway because a line of weak storms is heading down SE ATM.

 

 

Nice line. My parents told me there was some pretty gusty winds with downpours early this morning.

 

It's cooking out here now. Breaking records the next two days. 

[NEJeremy]

and it looks like we're going to get missed by basically everything here in northwest Omaha. Maybe some light rain a little later tonight. I guess I'll be watering the lawn this weekend <_>

[Tom]

Another round of drenching downpours...when it rains, it pours (no pun intended)!  My water collecting system is over flowing from all the rains the past couple days.  Prob picked up around 0.5" or so.  

 

@ Geo's, there was a cell that went right over your area that dropped 0.5" of rain in 10 minutes!

 

Arctic temps coldest in 10 years at this stage in late August.  In 2006, temps really tanked during second half of August into September.  This year may be something similar.

 

http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/plots/meanTarchive/meanT_2006.png

[Thunder98]

A sign of autumn coming? Temperatures in the 60's today in Eau Claire and Duluth.

 

 

[Hawkeye]

There were some heavy cells around Iowa yesterday, but the evening line crapped out before reaching me.  I only picked up 0.27".  This morning we've been in the upper 60s with a dew falling down through the 60s.

[Geos]

Another round of drenching downpours...when it rains, it pours (no pun intended)!  My water collecting system is over flowing from all the rains the past couple days.  Prob picked up around 0.5" or so.  

 

@ Geo's, there was a cell that went right over your area that dropped 0.5" of rain in 10 minutes!

 

Arctic temps coldest in 10 years at this stage in late August.  In 2006, temps really tanked during second half of August into September.  This year may be something similar.

 

 

My parents mentioned that the pond went from a little low to overflowing within no time. 

Recurving typhoons look to bring troughs into the area soon. 

[Tom]

Its a cool, crisp morning...only 60F!  I had the window cracked open last night and had to close it bc it got to chilly.   Gosh, I've been waiting a long time this summer for a night like this and a day like today.  Looking forward to the Air & Water Show.  I'm heading downtown in a couple hours and hope to enjoy the show.  Hope we don't have too many cumulus clouds that damper the high altitude aerial show.

 

Yesterday's storms spawned several tornado reports near Grand Rapids, MI and South Haven in SW MI.

 

http://www.weather.gov/images/grr/08202016Ionia.jpg

[Tom]

CFSv2 is showing the waters NW of Hawaii cooling rapidly next month as that mean trough gets established.  Been keeping an eye on this idea for a little while now and it looks like it is holding to it.

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/monthly/images/CFSv2.SST.20160821.201609.gif

 

 

Over the last week, waters in the NE PAC have warmed, while just to the west they have cooled substantially...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/ocean/cdas-sflux_ssta7diff_global_1.png

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/ocean/cdas-sflux_ssta_global_1.png

[WBadgersW]

10/10 weather right now. I always love the first signs of fall.

[OKwx2k4]

I'm absolutely loving the GOA low placement in all extended model runs. Still keeping those troughs anchored right over the central CONUS.

[westMJim]

Had a close call here yesterday.  While here at my house there was only rain with no wind and there was no thunder with this storm here either but less than a half mile from me there were a lot of trees down. All in all here in Grand Rapids we were lucky as while there was a lot of tree damage and a lot of power outages there was no major structural damage and no reported injuries it could have been much worse. Here is some video that was taken by Charles Russell of the storm damage near my house.

 https://youtu.be/cJjcFVMPIcU

[Tom]

Had a close call here yesterday.  While here at my house there was only rain with no wind and there was no thunder with this storm here either but less than a half mile from me there were a lot of trees down. All in all here in Grand Rapids we were lucky as while there was a lot of tree damage and a lot of power outages there was no major structural damage and no reported injuries it could have been much worse. Here is some video that was taken by Charles Russell of the storm damage near my house.

 https://youtu.be/cJjcFVMPIcU

Glad your all right!  Those were some nasty cells and I can imagine what kind of impact they had in your neck of the woods.  Enjoy the reprieve from the humidity for the time being.

[Hckyplayer8]

Got my taste of Fall the past two days.

 

45 the low.

 

Gonna get nasty again this week as Southerly flow takes back over.

[Tom]

This graph just goes to show you how long its been so muggy outside...

 

 

Btw, the Air & Water Show was fantastic yesterday.  Here is a link to a photographers site where you can check out some of the photos which are much better than mine!

 

https://www.flickr.com/photos/vexxed82/sets/72157672788669825/with/28528382853/

[jaster220]

Wow, didn't see this coming Friday at all 

 

https://youtu.be/Jjc45RV3x6g

[Tom]

A terrific Tuesday is on tap today!  Yesterday was just down right perfection.  A tad warmer and a smidge more humid later today, but still comfortable.  Tomorrow and tomorrow night, models suggesting training storms.  Some severe storms are possible. 

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam4km/2016082300/nam4km_apcpn_ncus_20.png

 

 

 

[Tom]

Check out this awesome picture of a thunderstorm down draft sparking a Haboob in the PHX area this past Sunday!  I've never seen a shot like this from above.

 

http://weather2020.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/08/9-1-640x382.jpg

[westMJim]

We are now over 2/3rds of the way through August 2016. And at this time the mean temperature at Grand Rapids is 74.0° (+2.6°) the warmest so far this month has been 92° and the coldest so far is 53° While above average temperature wise the bigger news so far has been it has been very wet! So far Grand Rapids has recorded 6.55” of rain and this is the most since 1994 when 7.39” fell and with over a week to go yet we are in play for the wettest August on record here in Grand Rapids as that record is 8.46” set in 1987! So far this summer season (June, July, August) Grand Rapids 12.17” of rain fall.  The average for the summer here in Grand Rapids is just over 11” so we are already above average this summer so much for a dry summer in our area.

[Tom]

If the NAO/AO both go negative as forecast, and the PNA stays positive, we could be highlighting an Autumnal pattern as we open September and very well have a big impact to temps for Labor Day weekend around these parts.

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/nao.sprd2.gif'

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/ao.sprd2.gif

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/pna.sprd2.gif

 

A big area of HP looks to build in the NE PAC over the next 10 days, allowing the pattern to amplify over N.A. The hurricane that is supposed to develop in the Atlantic within the next 5 days will stay out to sea, however, it will help assist in developing a -NAO pattern by re-curving to east of Greenland.

 

The LRC suggests a cooler Labor Day weekend.  Let's see how this all unfolds.

[Hawkeye]

I got a couple nice storms early this morning that dropped 1.43" of rain along with nice lightning/thunder.  Big rain totals were spotty around here, though, while up in far northeast Iowa a line of storms trained for hours and dropped 6-8+ inches.

[NEJeremy]

Had some nice storms last night. Had a couple of smaller cells go over/near Omaha around 630 moving north and northeast. Eventually they merged about 15-20 miles north of town and formed a large supercell. The storm was barely moving at 5-10 mph and dumped 5-8" of rain on the county north of us. Around 740 the storm developed a large hook and went tornado warned. There was a report of small rope tornado that lasted a couple of minutes. Amazing structure on the storm and I got plenty of pics.

Later on a line of storms moved in and merged with the slow moving storm. The line really grew in strength rapidly as it moved into Omaha from the west. I was driving home through the north edge of town and began to run into some small tree limbs down and eventually a rather large tree limb that was laying across most of one lane. It looked to be at least 8" in diameter. About this time I got a text from my wife that the power had gone out at our house. Sure enough as I drove into our neighborhood, everything was dark. The power was out from 945p-445a and at one point over 20k were without power in Omaha. There was no warning for the storm still though, but finally they issued one as it was going through east Omaha. I've heard a report of a 92 mph wind gust measured near the airport. I ended up with 1.15" of rain in about 30 minutes.

[OKwx2k4]

Sounds like a nice storm. Glad you're ok!