Jump to content

August 2016 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest


Geos

Recommended Posts

Well it's a new month. Last month of meteorological summer.

 

What might it hold in store for the region... 

0z GEFS showing a bit cooler than normal temps.

 

  • Like 1

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

Link to comment
Share on other sites

They made it down to 51 degrees before the bell. Woohoo.

 

(personal victory)

 

Yeee Hawww!!!

 

I think we have a turned a corner.  Sunday was the first day in quite some time the temps may have actually underperformed a bit given the big picture.  Where I live it is already cooler tonight than many of the lows for July.

  • Like 1

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Yeee Hawww!!!

 

I think we have a turned a corner.  Sunday was the first day in quite some time the temps may have actually underperformed a bit given the big picture.  Where I live it is already cooler tonight than many of the lows for July.

 

 

It will change the equation if nights are going to start running colder now.

 

I need to see a clear trend this week with the lows.     I might have also seen this using local history because even I predicted August to be below normal in the contest.   :)

 

Still looks really nice overall.  

 

I have nothing against mostly sunny and cooler than normal in the summer.   This weekend was quite lovely.  

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

Link to comment
Share on other sites

When were those readings taken? Maybe they've cooled off.

 

It obviously does have something to do with Puget Sound. The orientation of those warm anomalies makes it clear. You can even see where the coastal straits are cooler w/ the more turbulent waters/mixing.

 

My guess is that it was related more to geography than the water temperature. And enough mixing with cooler 850mb temps to allow for more sunshine in that area.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Definitely a low-level inversion in place... SEA is foggy and 53.    

 

That is -4 on the low and very different than the last couple months.   

 

Even with a sunny, warm afternoon... today is already guaranteed to be below normal.    Tomorrow as well.   And probably Wednesday with a cool start.   

 

Adds up to a cool start to August.  

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

Link to comment
Share on other sites

A nice chilly 47 to start out August. :)

 

50 here.  It almost feels cold.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Clouds starting to break a little here along the river in Salem. A very nice day. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

46 at OLM this morning.

 

Wow, they really bottomed out. 

 

51° for a low this morning.

 

Still cloudy over the lowlands this morning.

 

  • Like 1

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Sharp but very shallow inversion over SEA based on the last RAOB sounding. Still at 55 degrees as of 1030AM. :lol:

 

We call it "the wedge" here on the east coast. Can be a b**tch to erode low level cold. Models always underestimate it.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Wow, they really bottomed out. 

 

51° for a low this morning.

 

Still cloudy over the lowlands this morning.

 

http://sat.wrh.noaa.gov/satellite/1km/Seattle/VIS1SEA.GIF

 

 

Its been totally sunny here all morning... clouds stopped just to the west.

 

Now breaking up pretty good even over Seattle.    Low clouds patches will shrink from west to east up here.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Sharp but very shallow inversion over SEA based on the last RAOB sounding. Still at 55 degrees as of 1030AM. :lol:

 

We call it "the wedge" here on the east coast. Can be a b**tch to erode low level cold. Models always underestimate it.

 

 

Models do horrible with that type of inversion.   

 

Really shallow too since Seattle totally fogged in around 6 a.m.  

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Its been totally sunny here all morning... clouds stopped just to the west.

 

Now breaking up pretty good even over Seattle.    Low clouds patches will shrink from west to east up here.

 

Yeah I can see the Issaquah Alps sticking through the clouds. ^

 

I see a small patch of blue sky now over Bellevue.

 

...

 

Clouds are moving  -

 

http://146.129.248.180/northbend.html

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Very, very shallow. Looks like 80% of the inverted profile (accounting for potential adiabatics) is under 1700ft. That said, there's a very sharp thermal gradient at the periphery, so mixing potential has been near zero so far. Will need to rely on radiative transfer to get the dominoes falling.

 

Have to say, I'm jealous. While y'all are enjoying your 70 degree afternoons, we're on our 13th consecutive day with heat indies above 100F.

 

 

Clouds are dissolving now over the Seattle area.    Sun should mix it out and the front coming in should help.

 

Very ripe for a evening high at SEA again today... we will see.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Clouds are dissolving now over the Seattle area. Sun should mix it out and the front coming in should help.

 

Very ripe for a evening high at SEA again today... we will see.

Oh, I agree with the idea of an evening high.

 

Might still finish cooler than guidance was suggesting, though. It takes time to mix out a sharp wedge. Once mixing gets going, convective transfer, diffusion, and latent heating processes take over, so the profile will cool in the mid levels while warming at the surface.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Oh, I agree with the idea of an evening high.

 

Might still finish cooler than guidance was suggesting, though. It takes time to mix out a sharp wedge. Once mixing gets going, convective transfer, diffusion, and latent heating processes take over, so the profile will cool in the mid levels while warming at the surface.

 

 

Always happens slower than models show.

 

WRF thinks all the low clouds are gone at 11 a.m.    :lol:

 

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/wrfrt/data/current_gfs/images_d3/intcld.06.0000.gif

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Sun has just come out here. Most of the clouds appear to be north now.

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Sun has just come out here. Most of the clouds appear to be north now.

 

 

Very typical break up... a seam forms along I-90 and splits the low clouds to the north and south.    Then it all clears from the west.  

 

Probably has to do with the hills running west to east along I-90.  

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

Link to comment
Share on other sites

12Z ECMWF insists on a major c-zone tomorrow morning into early afternoon over King County.   It shows some impressive rainfall in that time from Seattle to Snoqualmie Pass.   

 

Also shows back to sunny everywhere by Wednesday afternoon and Thursday looks spectacular.    

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

Link to comment
Share on other sites

You can see the seam along the I-90 corridor.

 

VIS1_SEA.gif

 

That makes sense that the clouds would split where the terrain changes. Looks like the Duvall area will be the last to clear out.

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Sharp but very shallow inversion over SEA based on the last RAOB sounding. Still at 55 degrees as of 1030AM. :lol:

 

We call it "the wedge" here on the east coast. Can be a b**tch to erode low level cold. Models always underestimate it.

 

 

Side note... the ECMWF surface maps are BY FAR the best model in handling these inversions.

 

It beats the WRF every single time.    If the WRF shows sunny and the ECMWF shows cloudy then it will be cloudy here.   

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

Link to comment
Share on other sites

That makes sense that the clouds would split where the terrain changes. Looks like the Duvall area will be the last to clear out.

 

 

Duvall and then also Jim's area are last to clear on days like this... clouds get pushed east and bank up against the hills there.  

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

Link to comment
Share on other sites

12Z ECMWF shows a heat wave out here next week while its cooler in Minnesota.   

 

Figures.   I wanted cool and rainy while we were gone because we can't be watering.   That massive vortex over AK has heat wave written all over it for the PNW.

 

http://stream.ecmwf.int/data/atls02/data/data01/scratch/ps2png-atls02-95e2cf679cd58ee9b4db4dd119a05a8d-96ejB3.png

 

http://stream.ecmwf.int/data/atls09/data/data01/scratch/ps2png-atls09-95e2cf679cd58ee9b4db4dd119a05a8d-IEjmub.png

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

Link to comment
Share on other sites

12Z ECMWF shows a heat wave out here next week while its cooler in Minnesota.   

 

Figures.   I wanted cool and rainy while we were gone because we can't be watering.   That massive vortex over AK has heat wave written all over it for the PNW.

 

 

 

 

It's also stronger/longer lasting with the trough Friday-Sunday.

 

 

A forum for the end of the world.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

It's also stronger/longer lasting with the trough Friday-Sunday.

 

ps2png-atls02-95e2cf679cd58ee9b4db4dd119a05a8d-BQAuAZ.png

Still looks too far north and too weak to bring rain. Probably just sunny, pleasant days for most of the area.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

Link to comment
Share on other sites

12Z ECMWF shows a heat wave out here next week while its cooler in Minnesota.

 

Figures. I wanted cool and rainy while we were gone because we can't be watering. That massive vortex over AK has heat wave written all over it for the PNW.

 

http://stream.ecmwf.int/data/atls02/data/data01/scratch/ps2png-atls02-95e2cf679cd58ee9b4db4dd119a05a8d-96ejB3.png

 

http://stream.ecmwf.int/data/atls09/data/data01/scratch/ps2png-atls09-95e2cf679cd58ee9b4db4dd119a05a8d-IEjmub.png

There is definitely potential for a toasty week during the middle of the month.

 

Was actually going to post about this. Below, note the *off-equator* WPAC forcing depicted during week2, as a result of a typhoon phase job superimposed on a large scale stagnant wave developing over the EHEM.

 

Technically this is actually La Niña esque forcing, but the off-equator/WAF boost into the NWPAC will 'roid up the NPAC jet and force a GOA trough/+PNA for a brief period of time:

 

image.pngimage.png

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Unfortunately, your content contains terms that we do not allow. Please edit your content to remove the highlighted words below.
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...

  • Popular Contributors

  • Activity Stream

    1. 373

      March 2024 Observations and Discussion

    2. 0

      March 31st - April 2nd Potent Plains Storm

    3. 373

      March 2024 Observations and Discussion

    4. 5703

      March 2024 Weather in the PNW

    5. 5703

      March 2024 Weather in the PNW

×
×
  • Create New...