August 2016 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[snow_wizard]

In all likelyhood, the Astoria readings are completely legitimate, and it's backed up by North Bend which recorded only one below normal day in July. Using PDX as a comparison is pointless, they're in a completely different climate zone. Instead of blaming the sensor, you should look at what meso or microscale meteorological phenomenon could be responsible for the July anomalies there. 

 

I just think July was royally screwed up.  It should have been cooler west of the Cascades than it was, but that's the way it goes.  I still haven't fully grasped why the Puget Sound region was so warm either.

[snow_wizard]

Stations in OR during July. More than a few outliers, but the vast majority registered numerous daily negative departures. Only one station failed to record a negative daily departure.

 

 

There are a few that look disproportionately warm.  Probably worth it for those stations to be checked out.  I believe the coast was a bit warmer than normal, but I'm not convinced anywhere was legitimately +2.5 or above.

[TT-SEA]

OK, I read ya. 

 

Just keep in mind that like alcohol and fatty foods, OLM is best in moderation. 

 

 

Did I mention yet how nice it is to have you back?  

[TT-SEA]

You'll have to excuse our East Coast members. Some of them like to think they understand the nuances of PNW climate from 3,000 miles away. 

 

Story of my life this summer in discussing our local weather with Phil.    Really have to live here and experience it all to understand it better.   

[ShawniganLake]

Just 58F here this afternoon. We did have a late morning high around 65F, though.

[wx_statman]

I know when the temperature anomaly @ 1100ft (at given observational site) is at/below -8F, and a sensor at the surface, at that given site, is reading an anomaly of +5F, there's a legitimate problem.

 

If you can't see that, I'm sorry.

 

Lets stick to facts, shall we?

 

AST averaged +3.5F, not +5F.

 

Long Beach averaged +2.2F.

 

And do you have proof that the temperature only 1100 feet above AST averaged 8F below normal? That seems very hard to believe. 

[TT-SEA]

Just 58F here this afternoon. We did have a late morning high around 65F, though.

74 here... fair amount of sunshine all day.

[wx_statman]

Stations in OR during July. More than a few outliers, but the vast majority registered numerous daily negative departures. Only one station failed to record a negative daily departure.

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/9D54E2E6-9372-4AFD-BE5B-32394AE8E112_zpsk1uxnabc.jpeg

 

You're not proving or disproving anything with this post. You still haven't addressed this:

 

So Phil, for July 2016 we have:

 

-Astoria had 0 days with daily negative departures

-North Bend had 1 day with daily negative departures

-Long Beach had 4 days with daily negative departures.

 

So to come full circle, maybe it was the pattern?

[wx_statman]

Did I mention yet how nice it is to have you back?  

 

Yes, you did. 

 

I'm going to get a whole lot busier real soon though. I've been basically just sitting around the last few days, hence all the posting!

[wx_statman]

Story of my life this summer in discussing our local weather with Phil.    Really have to live here and experience it all to understand it better.   

 

Absolutely.

[Phil]

Lets stick to facts, shall we?

 

AST averaged +3.5F, not +5F.

 

Long Beach averaged +2.2F.

 

And do you have proof that the temperature only 1100 feet above AST averaged 8F below normal? That seems very hard to believe.

Read more carefully.

 

I was speaking of a particular day in July (7/11) where AST registered a +3 in the face of a -8 @ 1100ft on the PDX sounding.

 

I'm traveling right now so don't have the numbers in front of me, but feel free to browse the ESRL site.

[Phil]

This data is also aggregated in the RATPAC and RAOBCORE datasets for these locations. Simple stuff.

 

Whatever the cause of those warm surface anomalies, it's almost certainly anthropogenic (whether it be sensor issues or UHI).

[wx_statman]

Learn how to read.

 

I was speaking of a particular day in July (7/11), where AST registered a +3 in the face of a -8 @ 1100ft on the PDX sounding.

 

I'm traveling right now so don't have the numbers in front of me, but feel free to browse the ESRL site.

 

-I'm trying to get you to present information in a more coherent way. Why jump to a particular day when we're talking about the month as a whole?

 

-PDX soundings don't necessarily reflect conditions at Astoria, as you have just learned.

 

-You still don't know what you're talking about on this subject. 

[wx_statman]

Read more carefully.

 

I was speaking of a particular day in July (7/11) where AST registered a +3 in the face of a -8 @ 1100ft on the PDX sounding.

 

I'm traveling right now so don't have the numbers in front of me, but feel free to browse the ESRL site.

 

Perhaps you should focus on your travels, instead of peppering this forum with what basically amounts to misinformation?

 

When you get home, take a deep breath and analyze the numbers. Try to understand what they mean. Try to listen when people who live here attempt to teach you about the nuances of our climate. 

[Phil]

-I'm trying to get you to present information in a more coherent way. Why jump to a particular day when we're talking about the month as a whole?

If you want to present information coherently, make sure the information you're providing is accurate first.

 

I never said AST averaged +5 for July. I was referring to the daily departure on 7/11 in relation to the upper air temperatures in order to draw attention to the underlying divergence.

 

BTW, that was actually a typo, I meant to write +3 for 7/11, not +5.

 

PDX soundings don't necessarily reflect conditions at Astoria, as you have just learned.

At 1100ft, they're not going to be very far off given the lack of a gradient or airmass change. Looking up through 5000ft, the it's the same story. Just a solidly cool airmass.

 

You still don't know what you're talking about on this subject.

Don't even try.

[BLI snowman]

September might be one of the coldest if not coldest September on record here in the PNW. Unbelievable pattern change we are about to witness. Autumn is coming fast!

September 1884 topped out at a toasty 72 in Portland.

[wx_statman]

If you want to present information coherently, make sure the information you're providing is accurate first.

 

I never said AST averaged +5 for July. I was referring to the daily departure on 7/11 in relation to the upper air temperatures in order to draw attention to the underlying divergence.

 

BTW, that was actually a typo, I meant to write +3 for 7/11, not +5.

 

 

At 1100ft, they're not going to be very far off given the lack of a gradient or airmass change. Looking up through 5000ft, the it's the same story. Just a solidly cool airmass.

 

 

Don't even try.

 

Have a good trip, Phil!

[Phil]

Perhaps you should focus on your travels, instead of peppering this forum with what basically amounts to misinformation?

 

When you get home, take a deep breath and analyze the numbers. Try to understand what they mean. Try to listen when people who live here attempt to teach you about the nuances of our climate.

Do you have asperger's or something? You're mistranslating a ton of information here.

 

You're mouthing off about "pattern nuances" that you have yet to even describe or quantitatively apply through the time period of reference.

[wx_statman]

September 1884 topped out at a toasty 72 in Portland.

 

That's incredible to think about. Totally different climate back then.

 

1884 is the year that 95" of snow fell at Eola, between the February and December storms. 

[wx_statman]

Do you have asperger's or something? You're mistranslating a ton of information here.

 

You're mouthing off about "pattern nuances" that you have yet to even describe or quantitatively apply through the time period of reference.

 

Happy travels!

[wx_statman]

BTW Phil, you've done nothing to prove that the ASOS sensor @ AST is faulty. That's what we were talking about, remember?

[Phil]

BTW Phil, you've done nothing to prove that the ASOS sensor @ AST is faulty. That's what we were talking about, remember?

I can't prove the sensor is faulty without cross calibrating it myself.

 

All I know is that AST is running unreasonably warm given the airmasses in question. Whether it's a sensor issue, or a larger issue involving UHI, warm SSTs, aging sensors, or a combination of the three, I don't know (and have no way of quantitatively knowing).

[wx_statman]

I can't prove the sensor is faulty without cross calibrating it myself.

 

All I know is that AST is running unreasonably warm given the airmasses in question. Whether it's a sensor issue, or a larger issue involving UHI, warm SSTs, aging sensors, or a combination of the three, I don't know (and have no way of quantitatively knowing).

 

Good. If you would have said this to begin with, you wouldn't have created all the problems for yourself.

[Phil]

It's funny...just before the DCA sensor was replaced, I was debating with some guy throwing up the exact same talking points (microclimates, Potomac River, etc). It's fairly easy to pick out inconsistencies with regards to contaminated temperature measurements.

 

Do I think AST averaged cooler than normal in July? No, I actually don't, given the topographic and thermodynamic influences that are obviously present there. Do I believe they failed to pull off a single negative daily departure? No, because that would be thermodynamically unreasonable on a number of occasions.

[wx_statman]

FWIW, I personally think there is nothing wrong with the AST sensor. Just like Phil though, I have no way of proving or disproving that. I happen to think the departures around the Astoria region this summer were due to natural causes, although I can't quantitatively articulate why. It just makes more sense than assuming faulty sensors or a UHI effect (in a city that has seen zero population growth over the last 100 years), especially considering that a similar profile existed at both North Bend and Long Beach in July.

[wx_statman]

It's funny...just before the DCA sensor was replaced, I was debating with some guy throwing up the exact same talking points (microclimates, Potomac River, etc). It's fairly easy to pick out inconsistencies with regards to contaminated temperature measurements.

 

Do I think AST averaged cooler than normal in July? No, I actually don't, given the topographic and thermodynamic influences that are obviously present there. Do I believe they failed to pull off a single negative daily departure? No, because that would be thermodynamically unreasonable on a number of occasions.

 

What happened to leaving room for learning? There obviously was a reason, because it happened. And again, nearly the exact same thing occurred at North Bend (one day with negative departures) and Long Beach (4 days). 

[Phil]

Good. If you would have said this to begin with, you wouldn't have created all the problems for yourself.

I'd put money down that the sensor is creeping warm. Whether that's the only issue, I don't know, but my hunch is that it's a combination of factors.

 

Regarding the sensor issue, I've seen this happen so many times..I work with these multipurpose ultrasonic sensors everyday. I have eight sensors, all cross calibrated and tuned. They can perform beautifully for months, then one will randomly start to creep (usually the ones exposed to solar radiation) and will either need to be recalibrated or replaced entirely.

[Phil]

What happened to leaving room for learning? There obviously was a reason, because it happened. And again, nearly the exact same thing occurred at North Bend (one day with negative departures) and Long Beach (4 days).

I'm not saying various anthropogenic factors couldn't have contaminated the surface temperature readings. I'm saying that, in absence of any said errors and/or contaminations, surface temperatures should not have run as warm as they did. Warmer SSTs and ill-timed backradiation/latent heat release from cloudiness & fog development can only explain so much.

[wx_statman]

I'd put money down that the sensor is creeping warm. Whether that's the only issue, I don't know, but my hunch is that it's a combination of factors.

 

Regarding the sensor issue, I've seen this happen so many times..I work with these multipurpose ultrasonic sensors everyday. I have eight sensors, all cross calibrated and tuned. They can perform beautifully for months, then one will randomly start to creep (usually the ones exposed to solar radiation) and will either need to be recalibrate or replaced entirely.

 

I don't doubt any of that. You obviously have personal experience there. 

 

But don't you think the people in charge of the ASOS network have the same experience? Isn't there a maintenance program and calibration schedule for these ASOS sensors, since people's lives literally depend on accurate information for flying purposes? I'm sure some sensors slip through the cracks, or develop defects sooner than anticipated. Maybe that's the case at AST, maybe not. But to me its not a safe assumption to make that a sensor is faulty without fully analyzing and understanding the causes of a particular observed departure. 

[Front Ranger]

That's incredible to think about. Totally different climate back then.

 

1884 is the year that 95" of snow fell at Eola, between the February and December storms. 

 

It was different, for sure - but still generally a temperate, maritime climate. The following year, 1885, actually averaged more than 1.5 degrees warmer than 2013.

[Timmy Supercell]

My location had a 58/23 in September 1972. That was a GREAT weather year. Silver Falls period or record dates back to 1938, the all-time high and low were in 1972. 

 

Klamath Falls had a low of 19 on 09/14/1970 and a high of 100 on 09/03/1998. But your stats both ending up on the same year actually is slightly more interesting in my opinion.

[Phil]

I don't doubt any of that. You obviously have personal experience there.

 

But don't you think the people in charge of the ASOS network have the same experience? Isn't there a maintenance program and calibration schedule for these ASOS sensors, since people's lives literally depend on accurate information for flying purposes? I'm sure some sensors slip through the cracks, or develop defects sooner than anticipated. Maybe that's the case at AST, maybe not. But to me its not a safe assumption to make that a sensor is faulty without fully analyzing and understanding the causes of a particular observed departure.

You'd think so, but apparently the protocol is that ASOS sensors are recalibrated and/or replaced approximately every 2 years, hence why I asked when the these sensors were last replaced so I could obtain a more informed opinion.

 

If you worked with these things, you'd be shocked how quickly they'll start creeping. Sometimes it starts within a few months.

[Front Ranger]

Klamath Falls had a low of 19 on 09/14/1970 and a high of 100 on 09/03/1998. But your stats both ending up on the same year actually is slightly more interesting in my opinion.

 

I would bet that many locations saw one of their greatest monthly spreads on record in Sep 1972, between the top tier heatwave to start the month and the huge cold wave towards the end.

[wx_statman]

I'm not saying various anthropogenic factors couldn't have contaminated the surface temperature readings. I'm saying that, in absence of any said errors and/or contaminations, surface temperatures should not have run as warm as they did. Warmer SSTs and ill-timed backradiation/latent heat release from cloudiness & fog development can only explain so much.

 

Just being honest, but if I were you I would look deeper into that. Who knows, maybe with enough thorough research you might find a way to explain the departure through natural causes? Or you might definiteviley prove otherwise. But you'll be better off for it either way. 

[BLI snowman]

That's incredible to think about. Totally different climate back then.

 

1884 is the year that 95" of snow fell at Eola, between the February and December storms.

Yeah, we have some pretty stiff competition when it comes to seeing all time record cold months here if we decide to incorporate the 1800s. They were kinda chilly.

[wx_statman]

It was different, for sure - but still generally a temperate, maritime climate. The following year, 1885, actually averaged more than 1.5 degrees warmer than 2013.

 

OK you got me, I was using hyperbole. Its was still a warm summer Mediterranean climate. 

 

But the capabilities of our climate were obviously different in that era. 

[Timmy Supercell]

I would bet that many locations saw one of their greatest monthly spreads on record in Sep 1972, between the top tier heatwave to start the month and the huge cold wave towards the end.

 

1972 continued to provide one of Klamath's coldest Decembers. Also a longer lasting arctic snap than Dec 2013. 

 

Though I can't recall if Dec 1972 was actually considered a "snowy" month, or was it mostly dry like 2013?

[Front Ranger]

Yeah, we have some pretty stiff competition when it comes to seeing all time record cold months here if we decide to incorporate the 1800s. They were kinda chilly.

 

As far as warm season months go, August 1899 is probably the most impressive to me. Average temp of 61.47, almost 3 degrees colder than any August in downtown Portland since.

[wx_statman]

You'd think so, but apparently the protocol is that ASOS sensors are recalibrated and/or replaced approximately every 2 years, hence why I asked when the these sensors were last replaced so I could obtain a more informed opinion.

 

If you worked with these things, you'd be shocked how quickly they'll start creeping. Sometimes it starts within a few months.

 

Then are we to distrust all ASOS sensors?

 

You have to draw a line somewhere. Which is why I'm saying that assuming an ASOS sensor is faulty should be a last resort, after all natural causes have been eliminated. When its "obviously" faulty, even though that's a subjective definition. To me personally, the AST sensor isn't "obviously" faulty because its July temperatures fell in line with both OTH and Long Beach. 

[luminen]

Took this photo today of the Lions peaks in North Vancouver. It was about 68F/20C and raining.