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September 2016 Observations and Discussions


Tom

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We made it through a warm,wet and sticky summer, what will Autumn bring???  As we approach the start of meteorological Autumn this week, who's ready for a change???  Who wants prime time weather to continue???  How about a bit of both???  Let's discuss...

 

Met Autumn begins on Thursday and mother nature looks to give us a taste of autumnal weather.  Due to an amplifiied weather pattern of N.A., a nice cool Canadian HP will drift through the Lakes region later this week ushering in a cooler airmass.  Temps near the Lakes/Midwest this Labor Day weekend don't look that bad a should remain a touch below normal, except for maybe on Monday.

 

 

 

 

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Here are the latest trends for September via the CFSv2...

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/monthly/images/summaryCFSv2.NaT2m.201609.gif

 

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/monthly/images/summaryCFSv2.NaPrec.201609.gif

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Refreshing cool nights ahead...I could already taste the smell of bon fires in the neighborhood!  I had my taste last night with some old friends roasting polish sausages, although it was a bit to muggy out.

 

Wed night...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016082906/gfs_T2m_ncus_14.png

 

Thu night..

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016082906/gfs_T2m_ncus_18.png

 

 

Fri night...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016082906/gfs_T2m_ncus_22.png

 

 

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I'm ready for fall! The CFS now says not yet for me though. In the last couple of days though, I've noticed some of the changes I've been looking for. Some of the softwood trees around here are getting their late summer yellow-green color and the occasional dead hardwood leaf left over from last year is falling now. I like fall. It has its own smell even. Too warm still to enjoy a good bonfire but you can smell the leaves and the trees. I can't wait for the first cool, dry and clear night this month. It will be beautiful.

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Im ready as well. Been noticing a few leaves falling and a bit of color here and there. Daylight sure is getting shorter!

Looking like mid 70s to open September around here.

It's getting dark around here already by 7:50 (ish)...I think we are losing close to 2.5 min per day.  Certainly starts adding up!

 

Grid forecast is calling for temps barely cracking 70F around here.  Some models are suggesting Lake Effect rain showers so if there are in fact enough clouds around temps may struggle to crack 70F.  It'll be refreshing to spend most of the day in the 60's.

 

NAM high rez showing a lake plume starting to developing Thursday morning with temps in the 50's...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam4km/2016083012/nam4km_ref_frzn_ncus_40.png

 

 

 

 

I think a lot of places in the Midwest/Lakes away from the urban cities will get down into the 40's for a couple nights both Wed/Thu night.

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I'm keeping an eye out for those troughs that are getting established near the PAC NW/British Columbia region over the next week or so to start shifting a bit east towards the middle part of the month.  Also, the season's first big Bearing Sea storm will spin up over the next 3 days.  Using the Bearing Sea Rule, one should expect a trough to penetrate the central CONUS towards the middle of the month.

 

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/00/npac/1000_500_thick/gfs_npac_088_1000_500_thick.gif

 

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2016083000/ecmwf_z500a_namer_5.png

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Ive been finding myself starting to look at models a bit more lately. That time of year!

Indeed amigo!  I think after Labor Day traffic on all the wx forums usually starts to pick us peeps are back in school and the transition of seasons begins.

 

Taking a look at the 12 GFS, post Labor Day weekend, looks like there could be several sharp cold fronts.  I counted 2 pretty decent "cool" periods.  Hope that happens.  I'll dig into the LRC later this week, but that pattern may fit the current cycle.

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Both GEFS/EPS showing a decent early autumn storm taking a track up towards the high Plains around the 9th/10th and dragging down a nice punch of cooler air.  Tis the season for more frequent cool shots.  GEFS 500mb starting to shift away from a dominant ridge pattern after the 11th.

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Both GEFS/EPS showing a decent early autumn storm taking a track up towards the high Plains around the 9th/10th and dragging down a nice punch of cooler air. Tis the season for more frequent cool shots. GEFS 500mb starting to shift away from a dominant ridge pattern after the 11th.

Love it!
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Could the CFSv2 be trending back to a cooler look???  The last run of the month suggesting both east/west coasts to be warm and the central states cooler.

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/monthly/images/CFSv2.NaT2m.20160831.201609.gif

 

 

 

CFSv2 Weekiies showing a cooler look Week 3 & 4..this could be something to monitor as the troughs get established in the west and should migrate east later in the month.  Bearing Sea Rule is my one long range tool that could prove to be accurate here.

 

http://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/weekly/images/wk3.wk4_latest.NAsfcT.gif

 

 

GEFS really trying to anchor the NE PAC ridge along the NW NAMER coastline in the extended, instead of it being a little bit off the coast.  If that should arise, it will definitely amplify the pattern over N.A.  Any early autumn cold air building in the north will try to come down south.  It's fun watching the models and seeing how the seasons are changing quickly up north over the next 2 weeks.  You can see how the jet is starting to strengthen slowly near the upper latitudes.

 

Autumn/Winter will be showing up after Labor Day weekend near Alaska/Yukon.  That region really starts cooling off next week.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016083100/gfs_asnow_ak_41.png

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Could have some Frosty mornings up in the U.P./Northwoods Friday morning...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam4km/2016083100/nam4km_T2m_ncus_44.png

 

 

 

With a flip of a switch, Autumn is welcomed, Thursday will be chilly for most of the Lakes region compared to the recent warmth.  Most of WI may not get out of the 60's as well as lakeside counties along LM, especially if the lake effect rains/clouds get going.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam4km/2016083100/nam4km_T2m_ncus_39.png

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The UP is never far away from the threat of frost  :lol: though by their standards, it's been a warm summer. IF it cools as quickly as some models have hinted, that warm Lk. Superior could mean some epic early LES breakouts. 

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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The UP is never far away from the threat of frost  :lol: though by their standards, it's been a warm summer. IF it cools as quickly as some models have hinted, that warm Lk. Superior could mean some epic early LES breakouts. 

It's funny, the calendar flips to Sept, and we are going to get a taste of true Autumnal air.  I'm sure ppl are going to feel the "chill" around these parts, esp at night or very early morning hours.

 

Edit: All the Lakes are running above normal this year.  It will all depend on how cold it gets in Sept and esp October which may cool off the warm lakes, bc if true early Arctic air hits in November and the lakes are warm....look out!!!   Nonetheless, if the signal for such cold air comes in November, I think some squalls are likely off the lakes no matter what the water temp are.

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It's funny, the calendar flips to Sept, and we are going to get a taste of true Autumnal air.  I'm sure ppl are going to feel the "chill" around these parts, esp at night or very early morning hours.

 

Edit: All the Lakes are running above normal this year.  It will all depend on how cold it gets in Sept and esp October which may cool off the warm lakes, bc if true early Arctic air hits in November and the lakes are warm....look out!!!   Nonetheless, if the signal for such cold air comes in November, I think some squalls are likely off the lakes no matter what the water temp are.

 

Cold outbreaks are moderated by the time they get down here, but up there Superior is the first big lake to interact. Considering they can get cold enough in October for decent LES, they stand a better shot at taking advantage. For us, as you said, a cool (but not truly cold) Sept/Oct will take our lake temp down quickly thus mitigating the potential. 

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Hello meteorological Autumn!  This morning looks and feels a bit like Autumn with lake clouds coming off LM and a chilly breeze out of the N and a temp of 65F.  Low 70's are in the forecast today with intermittent sunshine and a slight chance of a lake effect rain shower.  You can see a lake plume forming over the lake right now, esp offshore of the MKE area, some embedded heavier showers.

 

http://climate.cod.edu/data/nexrad/MKX/N0Q/MKX.N0Q.20160901.1311.gif

 

 

CFSv2 weeklies suggesting the troughs entering the PAC NW/Rockies to migrate a little farther east towards the central CONUS.  Something I thought would eventually happen.

 

http://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/weekly/images/wk1.wk2_latest.NAsfcT.gif

 

 

 

http://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/weekly/images/wk3.wk4_latest.NAsfcT.gif

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The CanSIP models updated Sept run below....seems to look similar to the CFSv2...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/cansips/2016090100/cansips_z500a_us_1.png

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/cansips/2016090100/cansips_T2ma_us_1.png

 

 

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/cansips/2016090100/cansips_apcpna_month_us_1.png

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Taking a look a wider look at the 500mb pattern and I keep seeing similarities in the N PAC with a Aleutian-like trough, ridge in the NE PAC, trough near the Archipelago region and a central N.A. trough sandwiched in between to ridges along both coasts.  Gary Lezak is expecting a warmer than normal month for much of the U.S. but he is expecting big changes in October as the new LRC sets up.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/cansips/2016090100/cansips_z500a_namer_1.png

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Just did some studying, and both the Bearing Sea Rule & LRC suggest a mid-month significant cool down as we approach the end of the 2015-16 LRC pattern.  To finish off the month, it should get real wet with the Thanksgiving part of the pattern taking place.  As we approach October, a brand new pattern evolves and the CFS is looking exciting for most of our sub forum.

 

In the meantime, after we enjoy some refreshing cooler air around these parts, the pattern will warm up as storms target the west and track to our NW next week.  Should be a warm/muggy week next week before cold fronts start to enter the pattern post 11th.

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Welcome to September. I know this really don't belong here but here is a little look back at some mean temperatures and wetness in Michigan. 

 .With August 2016 now mostly in the record books, here at Grand Rapids we ended the month with a mean temperature of 73.5° and that was good for +2.7° the average high for the month was 83.4° and the average low was 63.7° the warmest day was 92° the coolest low was 53° and it was a wet month as well with 7.97” of rain falling and that is good 2nd place in the all time August rain fall for Grand Rapids with only the 8.47” that fell in 1987 being more. Around the area Lansing was also much warmer than average with a mean of 73.9° and that is +4.1°  Lansing had 6.63” of rain.  Over at Muskegon they had a mean temperature of 73.2° and that is +3.3° To our east Detroit mean was 76.7° (+4.7°) and they had 5.62” of rain. At Flint their mean for August was 75.5° (+6.7) Up north Alpena mean was 71.2° (5.8°) but they were much drier with only 1.92” of rain. At the Soo they had a mean of 69.2° (+4.6) and 4.32” of rain, At the Soo it was the warmest August since 1947 (69.8) and over at Marquette the August mean temperature was 65.9° (+2.2°) all around Michigan it was a warmer and in most locations wetter than average August.

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CPC updated their outlook for this month...noticing a shift in the near normal temps to the west and a more central based slot of where we will likely see some cooler periods.

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/lead14/off15_temp.gif

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/lead14/off15_prcp.gif

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Gotta say, it feels real nice to have this pullback in temps.  I could smell fires in the neighborhood, still have a decent breeze out of the N with a temp in the mid 60's.  Earlier today, I could see my squirrels running around in the back yard with their mouths full of grass most likely insulating their nests.  Nights are much cooler than we have experience so I don't blame them!  It's these type of days where I start heading out of summer mode and into Autumn mode.

 

Couldn't ask Mother Nature to deliver a much better forecast for Labor Day weekend.  Ample sunshine, low humidity Sat-Sun, slight wind off the lake and temps near 80F.  Perfection!  Labor Day looks warm with rising humidity levels.

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Waterspout season has officially begun!  Yesterday, there were several waterspouts that spun up offshore of Kenosha and Chicago.

 

https://mobile.twitter.com/BwhittingtonPT/status/771353595673468928/video/1

 

CrSm07pUkAEEu_j.jpg

 

 

 

The past couple GFS runs showing a couple penetrating cold shots all the way down to our OK friends!!!  OKwx, I bet you can't wait to get rid of the humidity and heat.

 

GEFS members supporting the LRC pattern come mid month.  Should be pretty chilly if it works out the way I think it could happen.  

 

GFS trying to spin up another strong GL Autumn cutter next weekend...

 

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016090200/gfs_mslp_pcpn_ncus_37.png

 

 

 

CFSv2 weeklies still showing a cool 2nd half of the month....

 

http://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/weekly/images/wk3.wk4_latest.NAsfcT.gif

 

 

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The past couple GFS runs showing a couple penetrating cold shots all the way down to our OK friends!!! OKwx, I bet you can't wait to get rid of the humidity and heat.

 

GEFS members supporting the LRC pattern come mid month. Should be pretty chilly if it works out the way I think it could happen.

 

Yes sir I am! Will be very glad to be cool and dry. Its actually pretty decent today. Only 74. Saw a post on another forum stating that the upcoming pattern should be the beginnings of our fall/winter pattern for the year. If that's the case, I couldn't have analoged it any better and we have great things to look forward to. Possibly even better than my analogs.

 

My brother is visiting Chicago for the first time in his life this morning. He's going up for the big pro beach volleyball tournament this weekend.

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Yes sir I am! Will be very glad to be cool and dry. Its actually pretty decent today. Only 74. Saw a post on another forum stating that the upcoming pattern should be the beginnings of our fall/winter pattern for the year. If that's the case, I couldn't have analoged it any better and we have great things to look forward to. Possibly even better than my analogs.

 

My brother is visiting Chicago for the first time in his life this morning. He's going up for the big pro beach volleyball tournament this weekend.

Yup!  I may go down there tomorrow to check it out or lay out on the beach.  We will have a slight lake breeze which feels so D**n good this time of year.  Chicago lucked out again with another fantastic weekend.  He's going to love the city.  Glad we can enjoy a long holiday weekend under beauteous conditions.

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GFS was the first to hint at next weekends storm system across the high Plains, now the EURO is on board also.  After a warm/muggy week next week, this cooling will feel extra nice...even all the way down to the southern Plains.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2016090212/ecmwf_T850a_us_10.png

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2016090212/ecmwf_T850a_us_11.png

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It's a cool, crisp morning today sitting at 58/55 with a lot of morning dew on the grass and the roofs of houses in the neighborhood.  Been a while since it's felt this cool.  Latest guidance suggesting we may get close to touching 90F both Tue/Wed.  I remember last year, we had a hot Labor Day weekend with temps in the low 90's all weekend long.  It was quite a warm month last year.  The pattern still looks like it'll cool off by next weekend into the following week.

 

Here is the CPC's Week 3-4 thinking...

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/WK34/gifs/WK34temp.gif

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/WK34/gifs/WK34prcp.gif

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It's a cool, crisp morning today sitting at 58/55 with a lot of morning dew on the grass and the roofs of houses in the neighborhood.  Been a while since it's felt this cool.  Latest guidance suggesting we may get close to touching 90F both Tue/Wed.  I remember last year, we had a hot Labor Day weekend with temps in the low 90's all weekend long.  It was quite a warm month last year.  The pattern still looks like it'll cool off by next weekend into the following week.

 

Here is the CPC's Week 3-4 thinking...

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/WK34/gifs/WK34temp.gif

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/WK34/gifs/WK34prcp.gif

Cool and wet, just in time for the new LRC setting up!! 

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Cool and wet, just in time for the new LRC setting up!! 

Indeed!  The growing pocket of cooler waters NW of Hawaii and stretching south of the Aleutians is the evolution of the grand scheme.  Surprised to say, the CFSv2 has been doing a great job this past summer illustrating these developments.  Going forward, throughout the month, the NE PAC ridge is going to grow and hug the NW NAMER coastline, further warming those waters, which by then, we shall be seeing the new 2016-17 LRC pattern setting up.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/ocean/cdas-sflux_ssta_global_1.png

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Chilly indeed last night. My low was a crisp, nippy 49F. Hello Autumn!!!

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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