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September 2016 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest


Geos

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September is when it gets going..the dominoes start falling in earnest from mid/late September through mid/late October.

 

At least the NAO doesn't look to go really high in the next 2 weeks. Even looks like it backs off some.

 

 

Looks like blocking over eastern Siberia.

 

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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The WRF indicates a couple of days where highs could end up around 15 degrees below normal over the next week.  Looks like a lot of upper 50s to low 60s on Friday.  Quite a few chilly night in there too.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Looks like the winner tonight was Bow, just west of I-5 in Skagit County. 

 

3.12" between 8:00-12:00

 

http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mesowest/getobext.php?sid=E5898&table=1&banner=off

 

 

That is incredible. 

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Although all the action is just south of us, that line of heavy precip is holding together nicely. Lightning will light up the room here and there. Started raining hard enough on the way home that I pulled off to take a slower and safer route with the wife and baby in the car, took a video along the way. 

 

https://goo.gl/photos/2nMkvdf1iREsKcm67

 

 

This is a great video.   I am going to show my parents this morning since they are very familiar with that area.   Is that by the casino on exit 236?

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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SEA:

 

June  +2.6

July +1.1

August +2.6

 

+2.1 for meteorological summer.

 

This August ended up exactly the same as August 2015 in terms of monthly departure (there were 8 days below normal last August).

 

Recent summers (JJA):

 

2015 +4.9

2014 +2.5

2013 +3.2

2012 -0.7

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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SEA:

 

June +2.6

July +1.1

August +2.6

 

+2.1 for meteorological summer.

 

This August ended up exactly the same as August 2015 in terms of monthly departure (there were 8 days below normal last August).

 

Recent summers (JJA):

 

2015 +4.9

2014 +2.5

2013 +3.2

2012 -0.7

Coolest met summer in 4 years. Baby steps.

 

Although, when the Jun 15 - Sep 15 (true summer for the PNW) period is all said and done, it might not end up much above normal at all, even at SEA.

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A forum for the end of the world.

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Still a clear upward trend in the GFS ensembles:

 

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Seattle_USA_ens.png

Good to see! Would still love some summer weather before the final curtain closes.

Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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Pretty amazed the cell held together as long as it did.

 

Nice! I'd love to see something like that roll through, feels like it's been ages. It's impressive that even this morning there were still bands of precipitation flowing into that area. Hopefully you can pick up on some of these convergence zones in the winter going into an Arctic outflow; I believe your area has also been pretty snow starved these past 4 years.

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Nice! I'd love to see something like that roll through, feels like it's been ages. It's impressive that even this morning there were still bands of precipitation flowing into that area. Hopefully you can pick up on some of these convergence zones in the winter going into an Arctic outflow; I believe your area has also been pretty snow starved these past 4 years.

Storm last night took me by surprise honestly. Just moved to our first home recently, curious to see how the location performs. Sitting just above Cain lake at ~450'. Here is a google map for perspective... Lake Samish to the West and Lake Whatcom to the north.

Screenshot_20160901-083425.jpg

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Nice! I'd love to see something like that roll through, feels like it's been ages. It's impressive that even this morning there were still bands of precipitation flowing into that area. Hopefully you can pick up on some of these convergence zones in the winter going into an Arctic outflow; I believe your area has also been pretty snow starved these past 4 years.

I was waiting for someone to bring up the winter aspect. Can you imagine if this event happened in January with Arctic outflow? 3' of snow in 3 hours!!!

 

;)

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A forum for the end of the world.

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Storm last night took me by surprise honestly. Just moved to our first home recently, curious to see how the location performs. Sitting just above Cain lake at ~450'. Here is a google map for perspective... Lake Samish to the West and Lake Whatcom to the north.

You will be in a great spot during the winter. No outflow wind but way more moisture.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Although, when the Jun 15 - Sep 15 (true summer for the PNW) period is all said and done, it might not end up much above normal at all, even at SEA.

Shhhhh, don't talk like that.

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Storm last night took me by surprise honestly. Just moved to our first home recently, curious to see how the location performs. Sitting just above Cain lake at ~450'. Here is a google map for perspective... Lake Samish to the West and Lake Whatcom to the north.

 

That area will certainly do a lot better than Ferndale. I've noticed during winter snow events bands of precipitation can get hung up around there, while it stays dry just a little to the north. The elevation will also be a huge advantage.

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You will be in a great spot during the winter. No outflow wind but way more moisture.

  

That area will certainly do a lot better than Ferndale. I've noticed during winter snow events bands of precipitation can get hung up around there, while it stays dry just a little to the north. The elevation will also be a huge advantage.

Thanks for the replies. Wasn't sure if not having the outflow wind would end up hurting us or not, as I'm so used to the outflow being a huge player in a lot of our snow events in Bellingham. I know the area seems to get more moisture, not sure how the terrain and elevation will play into it all.

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Shhhhh, don't talk like that.

I don't care either way. I was just summarizing meteorological summer here. If you just take the middle two weeks of June and the first 10 days of July and August then it was a much colder summer!

 

I reported on meteorological summer and recent meteorological summers. Apples to apples. Last summer would also be cooler if you took the first part of September.

 

You act like I am hiding something. Lets look at May 15 - Sept 15. Probably cooler. Pick your period. I picked meteorological summmer since it just ended 9 hours ago.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Coolest met summer in 4 years. Baby steps.

 

Although, when the Jun 15 - Sep 15 (true summer for the PNW) period is all said and done, it might not end up much above normal at all, even at SEA.

 

I don't see it. 

 

Just looking at SEA, the departure from Jun 15 - Aug 31 was +1.9F. They would have to average -3.4F from September 1-15 to even lower their average to +1.0F for Jun 15 - Sep 15 (which would still be fairly significantly above normal for a three month period). Even last September 1-15 only averaged -1.0F at SEA and that stretch featured a 61/48 cold trough. 

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Nice! I'd love to see something like that roll through, feels like it's been ages. It's impressive that even this morning there were still bands of precipitation flowing into that area. Hopefully you can pick up on some of these convergence zones in the winter going into an Arctic outflow; I believe your area has also been pretty snow starved these past 4 years.

 

This is pretty much what happened on 2/24/2011. Sedro Woolley officially had 13" but there were places in the Mount Vernon area with over 2' if I remember right. 

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I don't see it.

 

Just looking at SEA, the departure from Jun 15 - Aug 31 was +1.9F. They would have to average -3.4F from September 1-15 to even lower their average to +1.0F for Jun 15 - Sep 15 (which would still be fairly significantly above normal for a three month period). Even last September 1-15 only averaged -1.0F at SEA and that stretch featured a 61/48 cold trough.

Not saying you're wrong, but keep in mind there was also a pretty solid warm event in that stretch.

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I don't see it.

 

Just looking at SEA, the departure from Jun 15 - Aug 31 was +1.9F. They would have to average -3.4F from September 1-15 to even lower their average to +1.0F for Jun 15 - Sep 15 (which would still be fairly significantly above normal for a three month period). Even last September 1-15 only averaged -1.0F at SEA and that stretch featured a 61/48 cold trough.

I don't think +1 over a three month period is significantly above normal. Have you seen the summers recently??

 

And we're talking about a location that leads the way for + anomalies. For most locations, it could easily end up very close to normal for Jun 15 - Sep 15.

A forum for the end of the world.

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Well no more rain overnight, but it looks like a soaker later this afternoon. Had a brief break in the clouds around 9am. Sitting at 61° right now.

 

Looks like the NAM is picking up on a convergence band or convection around OLM later on.

 

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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I was waiting for someone to bring up the winter aspect. Can you imagine if this event happened in January with Arctic outflow? 3' of snow in 3 hours!!!

 

;)

 

That same area was rocked on 2/23/2011 by a similar setup. About 30" fell in a couple of spots, Mt. Vernon area generally had 15-20". Mostly in a 6 hour period. 

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I don't care either way. I was just summarizing meteorological summer here. If you just take the middle two weeks of June and the first 10 days of July and August then it was a much colder summer!

 

You act like I am hiding something. Lets look at May 15 - Sept 15. Probably cooler. Pick your period. I picked meteorological summmer since it just ended 9 hours ago.

Huh? I didn't refer to you at all in that post.

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