gabel23 Posted February 18, 2014 Report Share Posted February 18, 2014 Looking at a possible small window of intense snow rates and strong winds around these parts. Most models latched onto this last night and will see if things continue. Hastings NWS mentions the possibility of thunder snow. It won't last long in our area but there could be a chance of seeing near blizzard conditions for a few hours! WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM CONTINUES TO LOOKMORE IMPRESSIVE AND THERE IS INCREASING MODEL AGREEMENT IN OUR AREASEEING SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW WITH THIS SYSTEM. THE 00ZGFS...ECMWF...AND NAM...ALONG WITH THE NOW 06Z NAM ALL INDICATEGENERALLY 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA LATEWEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. THE DYNAMICS ARE GOOD WITHTHIS WAVE INCLUDING STRONG FRONTOGENESIS AND IMPRESSIVE LIFT/OMEGAVALUES. TEMPERATURES WILL RAPIDLY FALL BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ANDMOST OF THE PRECIPITATION IS POST FRONTAL AND IN THE COLD SECTORMEANING THAT ALTHOUGH THE PRECIPITATION MAY BRIEFLY START AS RAIN INSOME AREAS...IT SHOULD VERY QUICKLY TURN OVER TO SNOW. SOME FORECASTMODELS INDICATE CONDITIONAL SYMMETRIC INSTABILITY (CSI) AND MAYBEEVEN SOME OUTRIGHT ELEVATED WEAK CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY.THEREFORE...EXPECT THIS WILL BE A RATHER INTENSE BAND OF SNOW...ITMAY NOT LAST MORE THAN A FEW HOURS...BUT SHOULD BE RATHER INTENSEWHEN IT COMES THROUGH. CAN NOT RULE OUT SOMEONE SEEING THUNDER SNOWIN THIS SET UP. THE WIND WILL ALSO BE VERY STRONG WHEN THE SNOWCOMES THROUGH WITH 850MB WINDS LIKELY AROUND OR OVER 50 KTS. EXPECTWE COULD VERY WELL BE NEAR WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA WITHIN THE SNOWBAND...WHICH WILL LEAD TO POOR VISIBILITY IN BLOWING SNOW. THIS ISCERTAINLY A STORM SYSTEM TO PAY ATTENTION TO IF YOU HAVE TRAVELPLANS THURSDAY MORNING. THE SNOW BAND WILL LIKELY ENTER OUR WESTERNZONES AROUND OR JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EXIT OUREASTERN ZONES BETWEEN 7 AND 10 AM THURSDAY MORNING. TIMING MAY VARYSOME AS WE GET CLOSER...BUT BASED ON OUR CURRENT DATA THIS IS OURBEST ESTIMATE AT THIS TIME. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEJeremy Posted February 18, 2014 Report Share Posted February 18, 2014 The 12Z NAM and GFS have definitely shifted east a little bit and have the heaviest qpf values just east of here into Iowa. We'll see how things play out as obviously have some time for changes yet Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clintbeed1993 Posted February 18, 2014 Report Share Posted February 18, 2014 The short duration of the event has me worried, and I'm a little pissed that the timing for my area will guarantee I don't get to see the intense snow band move through. I would be a lot more excited if this came through in the afternoon or evening. It should hit my area of the state in the very middle of the night at like 3 A.M. Horrible timing. What good is a snow event if I don't even get to go outside and enjoy it? Still waiting for a REAL winter storm. I'm dreaming of a Colorado Low. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jaycee Posted February 20, 2014 Report Share Posted February 20, 2014 It sickens me the lack of comments in here. I'm trying to pull some people from Chicago solely for their insight but they pretty much disregard every single one of my comments lol. Oh well. Maybe we can make this section of the forum bigger somehow. Anyway, the RAP is insanely jacked up for Nebraska. 40dbz returns for 3 hours almost. I wouldn't be surprised to see higher than 2-3"! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gabel23 Posted February 20, 2014 Author Report Share Posted February 20, 2014 It don't help that we just can't buy a storm that drops more than 3"! I have yet to see a wsw this year; can't recall a year in which that happened. At any rate radar looking good out west, morning commute should be interesting for sure. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFanOMA Posted February 20, 2014 Report Share Posted February 20, 2014 will be interesting to see how this one turns out, but we're still talking only a few inches. I'm ready to put this winter to bed. Bring on spring! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DominicR Posted February 20, 2014 Report Share Posted February 20, 2014 It sickens me the lack of comments in here. I'm trying to pull some people from Chicago solely for their insight but they pretty much disregard every single one of my comments lol. Oh well. Maybe we can make this section of the forum bigger somehow. Anyway, the RAP is insanely jacked up for Nebraska. 40dbz returns for 3 hours almost. I wouldn't be surprised to see higher than 2-3"! RAP is always over jacked so I trust it it with grain of salt. Sorry man. I know. Most people are to interested in there location than general area. Hopefully as spring comes around and severe wx gets busy we can get some more members from this area to come join us. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted February 20, 2014 Report Share Posted February 20, 2014 may not mean much, but my point forecast just went up to 2-4 inches instead of 1-3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gabel23 Posted February 20, 2014 Author Report Share Posted February 20, 2014 RAP is always over jacked so I trust it it with grain of salt. Sorry man. I know. Most people are to interested in there location than general area. Hopefully as spring comes around and severe wx gets busy we can get some more members from this area to come join us.I don't know, I would say it's lining up pretty darn close to that! Heavy wet pasty snow right now. Coming down hard; Iowa and up into Wisconsin are going to have one heck of a storm. Even Lincoln/Omaha you guys are in for a huge surprise. WSW is one county away from Omaha and snowfall forecast has gone up. Here is a Meso discussion about the heavy snow setting up: http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEJeremy Posted February 20, 2014 Report Share Posted February 20, 2014 Had some sleet mixing in here a while ago. I'm worried about the speed of the system being even faster than projected. It's flying east on radar. I hope the deformation band sets up soon enough where we start to get snow thrown back at us and moving more south to north as there is snow all the way down to Kansas. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DominicR Posted February 20, 2014 Report Share Posted February 20, 2014 How is it looking over there? That is a nice solid band. Must be pouring over there. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEJeremy Posted February 20, 2014 Report Share Posted February 20, 2014 It's coming down pretty good here. Pretty big fat flakes. Definitely seen harder snow before and I haven't had any thundersnow here. Looks like maybe 1.5" so far here Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DominicR Posted February 20, 2014 Report Share Posted February 20, 2014 It's coming down pretty good here. Pretty big fat flakes. Definitely seen harder snow before and I haven't had any thundersnow here. Looks like maybe 1.5" so far here Wow. I saw pictures out there and man those are some fat flakes. We have not or at least where I am not have seen fat flakes like that in quite awhile. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted February 20, 2014 Report Share Posted February 20, 2014 Wow. 12Z GFS buries most of Nebraska with over 1 ft. of snow in the next 2 weeks. We just need one of these storms to slow down and really strengthen. Almost blizzard conditions for a short amount of time in Holdrege between 5-6:30 yielded a little over 1". It was hard to see across the street for about 1 hour this morning. Most smaller school districts had late starts due to the slick road conditions and reduced visibility. It is already melting off pretty quickly here around noon. Several more chances in the coming days and looking like a rather impressive storm towards the Feb. 28-Mar 2 time frame. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEJeremy Posted February 20, 2014 Report Share Posted February 20, 2014 I hope that verifies. This storm was pretty disappointing. Really thought we were going to get around 4" and have some incredible snow rates. I'd say the highest rates were around 1". It's been snowing since around 815-830 and we don't even have more than 1.5". temps have already risen back up to 35 now that the rates are slower. might be able to get to 2". Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clintbeed1993 Posted February 20, 2014 Report Share Posted February 20, 2014 I knew this would be disappointing, but like CentrNebWeather said the GFS gives us plenty of opportunities for big snows. Whether or not we actually get a dang thing is another story. Not holding my breath the way this season has gone! Hope for the best! 12Z GFS through March 5th Maybe the classic Colorado Low will finally make an appearance. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFanOMA Posted February 21, 2014 Report Share Posted February 21, 2014 The rate was great, but the air was too warm, the ground was too warm, and the duration was too short. Put those ingrediants together and you get.... LET DOWN! The snow didn't even last 10 hours on the ground. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gabel23 Posted February 21, 2014 Author Report Share Posted February 21, 2014 The rate was great, but the air was too warm, the ground was too warm, and the duration was too short. Put those ingrediants together and you get.... LET DOWN! The snow didn't even last 10 hours on the ground.Came down hard for maybe 2 hrs and was gone in one! Intense when it was coming down but just didn't amt to much of anything; story of this winter..... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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