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El Nino Watch

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#801
Front Ranger

Posted 08 May 2017 - 12:47 PM

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Joking and trolling are not mutually exclusive.


Cool anomalies soothe the soul.


#802
Phil

Posted 08 May 2017 - 10:20 PM

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Some EPAC warming upcoming:

u.anom.30.5S-5N.gif
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Warm season 2017
Thunderstorm days: 10
Severe days: 5
Rain total: 11.58"
Highs at/above 90*F: 16
Warmest high: 99.4*F
Warmest low: 79.7*F

#803
Phil

Posted 11 May 2017 - 09:01 PM

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One heck of a trade wind burst along/west of the dateline upcoming over the next few weeks. If this can continue for another ~ 5 weeks, we can probably rule out a moderate Niño for next winter.
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Warm season 2017
Thunderstorm days: 10
Severe days: 5
Rain total: 11.58"
Highs at/above 90*F: 16
Warmest high: 99.4*F
Warmest low: 79.7*F

#804
TT-SEA

Posted 11 May 2017 - 09:11 PM

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One heck of a trade wind burst along/west of the dateline upcoming over the next few weeks. If this can continue for another ~ 5 weeks, we can probably rule out a moderate Niño for next winter.

 

Good news.    



#805
Phil

Posted 20 May 2017 - 12:19 AM

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The SSTA distribution is starting to take on more of a 2010-2012 look, following the big -NAM (-AO/-NAO) event that appears to have reorganized the tropical teleconnections a bit.

cdas-sflux_ssta_relative_global_1.png
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Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Warm season 2017
Thunderstorm days: 10
Severe days: 5
Rain total: 11.58"
Highs at/above 90*F: 16
Warmest high: 99.4*F
Warmest low: 79.7*F

#806
Phil

Posted 20 May 2017 - 12:21 AM

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Some EPAC warming upcoming


Bustola.

Looks like too much inertia in the WPAC thermocline with the trade burst.
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Warm season 2017
Thunderstorm days: 10
Severe days: 5
Rain total: 11.58"
Highs at/above 90*F: 16
Warmest high: 99.4*F
Warmest low: 79.7*F

#807
Phil

Posted 21 May 2017 - 01:25 PM

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Moderate Nino (ONI peak trimonthlies +1.0 to +1.4) looks like most likely outcome to me.


You might want to reconsider. This trade wind burst isn't going anywhere anytime soon.

49AFF326-F983-4ABF-AAA1-A6BA97CCFEEA_zps
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Warm season 2017
Thunderstorm days: 10
Severe days: 5
Rain total: 11.58"
Highs at/above 90*F: 16
Warmest high: 99.4*F
Warmest low: 79.7*F

#808
SilverFallsAndrew

Posted 21 May 2017 - 04:03 PM

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Kinda looks like a Nina may be back on the table.

Snowfall

2016-17: 47.2"

2015-16: 11.75"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"
2012-13: 16.75"
2011-12: 98.5"

 

 

 


#809
Front Ranger

Posted 21 May 2017 - 04:24 PM

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You might want to reconsider. This trade wind burst isn't going anywhere anytime soon.

49AFF326-F983-4ABF-AAA1-A6BA97CCFEEA_zps

 

We'll see. Like I said, that was based purely on historical ENSO progression. The ebbs and flows of trade wind bursts don't necessarily mean much at this point. Long way to go.


Cool anomalies soothe the soul.


#810
Phil

Posted 21 May 2017 - 04:34 PM

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We'll see. Like I said, that was based purely on historical ENSO progression. The ebbs and flows of trade wind bursts don't necessarily mean much at this point. Long way to go.


:huh:

What? Wind stresses drive the ENSO, most efficiently within the ideal fluid inertial resonance period of the equatorial Pacific thermocline. These "ebbs and flows" in circulation occur on numerous frequencies, which are determined by globally-integrated boundary conditions. You have higher frequency "ebbs and flows" (MJO waves, convectively-coupled Kelvin waves, etc), and lower frequency "ebbs and flows" that can last anywhere from months to centuries.
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Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Warm season 2017
Thunderstorm days: 10
Severe days: 5
Rain total: 11.58"
Highs at/above 90*F: 16
Warmest high: 99.4*F
Warmest low: 79.7*F

#811
Phil

Posted 21 May 2017 - 04:36 PM

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Also, what "historical ENSO progression" are you referring to?

I can't find a single example of a moderate niño developing just two years after a super-niño. There's a reason for that.
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Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Warm season 2017
Thunderstorm days: 10
Severe days: 5
Rain total: 11.58"
Highs at/above 90*F: 16
Warmest high: 99.4*F
Warmest low: 79.7*F

#812
Front Ranger

Posted 21 May 2017 - 05:00 PM

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Also, what "historical ENSO progression" are you referring to?

I can't find a single example of a moderate niño developing just two years after a super-niño. There's a reason for that.

 

Years where ENSO has rebounded from a weak Nina/negative neutral to weakly positive/neutral in the spring.

 

Examples would be: 2009, 2002, 1997, 1986, 1972, 1965, 1963, and 1951. The bolded all went on to become moderate Ninos, and 1951 almost did. Not a single -ENSO winter followed.


Cool anomalies soothe the soul.


#813
Jesse

Posted 21 May 2017 - 05:03 PM

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Kinda looks like a Nina may be back on the table.


Mircavkles never seise.

#814
Phil

Posted 21 May 2017 - 05:07 PM

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Years where ENSO has rebounded from a weak Nina/negative neutral to weakly positive/neutral in the spring.

Examples would be: 2009, 2002, 1997, 1986, 1972, 1965, 1963, and 1951. The bolded all went on to become moderate Ninos, and 1951 almost did. Not a single -ENSO winter followed.


This doesn't address the point. What leads you to predict a moderate niño?

It's one thing to see a +ENSO, but it's another thing to see a moderate niño less than two years after a super niño. That has never occurred in recorded history, and there are many reasons for that. As a forecaster, you'd better have a very good reason to go that route.
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Warm season 2017
Thunderstorm days: 10
Severe days: 5
Rain total: 11.58"
Highs at/above 90*F: 16
Warmest high: 99.4*F
Warmest low: 79.7*F

#815
Front Ranger

Posted 21 May 2017 - 06:00 PM

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This doesn't address the point. What leads you to predict a moderate niño?

It's one thing to see a +ENSO, but it's another thing to see a moderate niño less than two years after a super niño. That has never occurred in recorded history, and there are many reasons for that. As a forecaster, you'd better have a very good reason to go that route.

 

Hey, that could be a factor. Of course, we only have 4 previous examples (in the modern era of measuring ENSO) to go off of, so that's a pretty small sample size.

 

We've also had not previously seen a super Nino follow a weak Nino, and that's what happened in 2016. So I'm not sure there's hard and fast rules to these things.


Cool anomalies soothe the soul.


#816
Phil

Posted 21 May 2017 - 06:17 PM

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Hey, that could be a factor. Of course, we only have 4 previous examples (in the modern era of measuring ENSO) to go off of, so that's a pretty small sample size.

We've also had not previously seen a super Nino follow a weak Nino, and that's what happened in 2016. So I'm not sure there's hard and fast rules to these things.


Well, we have adequate ENSO reconstructions which run back to the 1860s, and even then, never has a moderate niño occurred within two years following a super niño.

Also, 2014/15 was (theoretically) a low-solar abomination of the IPWP cycle, given the super niño cycle is driven by the interdecadal-longitudinal fluctuation(s) of the IPWP relative to the response-preference to external forcings and resonances. The IPWO cycle is driven, on a fluid-inertial lag, by solar/external forcings on the peripheral boundary conditions for tropical convection (QBO/tropical static stability, annular modes). The larger the systematic disequilibrium to the response-preference to external forcing, the closer the super niño response will occur to the west shifted IPWP regime. The weaker solar forcing has dampened this IPWP cycle in recent years, so the super niño attempt in 2014/15, which was right at the peak in the eastward IPWP regime, failed, hence restarting in 2015/16:

AECFD5C7-1C51-4FD0-978B-991F95341177_zps
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Warm season 2017
Thunderstorm days: 10
Severe days: 5
Rain total: 11.58"
Highs at/above 90*F: 16
Warmest high: 99.4*F
Warmest low: 79.7*F

#817
Phil

Posted 21 May 2017 - 06:54 PM

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This is why you typically see a moderate/strong El Niño develop near/just after solar minimum. At first it sounds counterintuitive given the broad IPWP is a response to solar maximum, but the niño response during solar minimum actually occurs because of the westward retraction of the IPWP. It steepens the longitudinal thermo-convective gradient across the tropical Pacific and steepens the thermocline, which preconditions the system for a downwelling oceanic KW, which is then set off by a reduction in tropical static stability by the winter -NAM (-AO) response to the strengthened BDC/poleward O^3 flux, a hallmark of low solar.

This allows the MJO/intraseasonal convection to leave the confines of the IPWP, and propagate eastward across the Pacific, forcing a WWB regime that can then easily initiate a downwelling oceanic KW.

By this logic, we can expect an overall westward retraction of the IPWP over the next few years, which should force an El Niño response during 2019/20, followed by a multi-year moderate or strong La Niña state in the early 2020s.
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Warm season 2017
Thunderstorm days: 10
Severe days: 5
Rain total: 11.58"
Highs at/above 90*F: 16
Warmest high: 99.4*F
Warmest low: 79.7*F

#818
Phil

Posted 23 May 2017 - 11:51 PM

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Back to IO/dateline cooling, maritime warming.

u.anom.30.5S-5N.gif
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Warm season 2017
Thunderstorm days: 10
Severe days: 5
Rain total: 11.58"
Highs at/above 90*F: 16
Warmest high: 99.4*F
Warmest low: 79.7*F

#819
SilverFallsAndrew

Posted 11 July 2017 - 12:54 PM

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Pretty clear there will not be an El Nino this winter. 


Snowfall

2016-17: 47.2"

2015-16: 11.75"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"
2012-13: 16.75"
2011-12: 98.5"

 

 

 


#820
Phil

Posted 11 July 2017 - 12:55 PM

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Moderate Nino (ONI peak trimonthlies +1.0 to +1.4) looks like most likely outcome to me.


Another Flatiron bust.
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Warm season 2017
Thunderstorm days: 10
Severe days: 5
Rain total: 11.58"
Highs at/above 90*F: 16
Warmest high: 99.4*F
Warmest low: 79.7*F

#821
Front Ranger

Posted 11 July 2017 - 03:34 PM

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Another Flatiron bust.


Yeah, not looking likely but July is probably a little too early to say where we end up this winter.

Calling out a bust 6 months in advance doesn't come across as desperate at all.

Cool anomalies soothe the soul.


#822
Phil

Posted 11 July 2017 - 03:41 PM

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Yeah, not looking likely but July is probably a little too early to say where we end up this winter.

Calling out a bust 6 months in advance doesn't come across as desperate at all.


I told you that I'd start highlighting your busts, since you spent months critiquing my forecasts, then refused to participate in the forecast contest.

What goes around comes around, my friend. :)
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Warm season 2017
Thunderstorm days: 10
Severe days: 5
Rain total: 11.58"
Highs at/above 90*F: 16
Warmest high: 99.4*F
Warmest low: 79.7*F

#823
Front Ranger

Posted 11 July 2017 - 03:48 PM

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I told you that I'd start highlighting your busts, since you spent months critiquing my forecasts, then refused to participate in the forecast contest.

What goes around comes around, my friend. :)

 

Not true. I called you out for insisting that June (and then early summer) was going to end up "cool/troughy" when it obviously wasn't.

 

Not the same as hunting busts 6 months before verification.  :rolleyes:


Cool anomalies soothe the soul.


#824
Phil

Posted 11 July 2017 - 04:02 PM

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Not true. I called you out for insisting that June (and then early summer) was going to end up "cool/troughy" when it obviously wasn't.

Not the same as hunting busts 6 months before verification. :rolleyes:


Apples and oranges, dude. You blew your ENSO forecast the second you made it.

- ENSO operates under a particular set of large scale boundary conditions which modulate the planetary energy budget. Predicting a moderate El Niño in May was simply irresponsible research.

- Subseasonal variability in the extratropical circulations, on the other hand, operates through the interactions of many smaller scale, highly nonlinear processes and interactions. It's not something that's easy to predict at-range.
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Warm season 2017
Thunderstorm days: 10
Severe days: 5
Rain total: 11.58"
Highs at/above 90*F: 16
Warmest high: 99.4*F
Warmest low: 79.7*F