ENSO Discussion

[Phil]

Typical trolling from Phil.

Resolution and bias are mutually exclusive in this case. Do you need me to explain why?

 

If you can't tell the difference between a troll post and a legitimate train of thought, that's your own problem, and I won't waste my time on you in that case.

[Phil]

I think you are actually right on the money here.

Nope. I'll link to literature on this if needs be. Straightforward.

 

The NESDIS system runs with larger spatial grids than the CDAS system, so it doesn't pick up smaller scale SSTA variations as well as CDAS (think instability waves during the upwelling process). However, don't conflate that with systematic bias due to orbital drift or sensor degradation. They're different artifacts with different effects on the system mean.

[Phil]

If you don't understand something, maybe ask for clarification instead of throwing out false accusations of trolling or ulterior motive(s).

 

If I was trolling, I'd admit it. So stupid.

[Jesse]

Nope. I'll link to literature on this if needs be. Straightforward.

 

The NESDIS system runs with larger spatial grids than the CDAS system, so it doesn't pick up smaller scale SSTA variations as well as CDAS (think instability waves during the upwelling process). However, don't conflate that with systematic bias due to orbital drift or sensor degradation. They're different artifacts with different effects on the system mean.

I'm not talking about this particular situation. But I do think that is something you do in general. Especially when it comes to Tim.

[TT-SEA]

If you don't understand something, maybe ask for clarification instead of throwing out false accusations of trolling or ulterior motive(s).

 

If I was trolling, I'd admit it. So stupid.

 

Sure Phil.   You are trolling me 95% of the time.   

[Phil]

I'm not talking about this particular situation. But I do think that is something you do in general. Especially when it comes to Tim.

I troll the politics thread frequently (sometimes the wx-side threads too), but this isn't a case where I'd do that. I'm actually trying to clarify a point here.

[Jesse]

I troll the politics thread frequently (sometimes the wx-side threads too), but this isn't a case where I'd do that. I'm actually trying to clarify a point here.

Ok. Fair enough. Carry on.

 

I got lost on the point a long time ago, personally.

[Phil]

Sure Phil. You are trolling me 95% of the time.

In the politics thread, that's probably true. I don't troll nearly as much on the weather-side, though. If anything I'm probably overly hard-nosed, radical, and opinionated when it comes to weather/climate stuff.

[TT-SEA]

In the politics thread, that's probably true. I don't troll nearly as much on the weather-side, though. If anything I'm probably overly hard-nosed, radical, and opinionated when it comes to weather/climate stuff.

 

Maybe so... but when you frequently troll then people think you are always trolling.   The price you pay for being a d*ck.   

[Phil]

This upcoming wave reflects either a very east-based niño look, or a very west-based niña one. Could pass off as either.

 

http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/ventrice/real_time/timeLon/vp.anom.30.5S-5N.gif

[Phil]

I'll have to run some actual statistical tests to confirm, but from what I can tell, the variance in the ONI data appears to resemble a dipping-bird function, or something similar:

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/D968DFB3-6E72-4657-A005-0FC90845F96A_zpsbuvkh4s8.jpg

 

If the result is statistically significant on the particular frequencies aforementioned, the question becomes, why would such a low-frequency system resonance exist, and is it internally or externally governed?

[Phil]

Geesh, the IO icebox is just dominating the behavior of the tropical convection. Models just keep subsidence parked right over those cool waters.

 

At this point, all viable analogs for the upcoming progression will require a matching IO. The latest GFS doesn't budge this regime even a micrometer through its run:

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/DD1A0B2A-105F-4E77-861C-00C33A7465C2_zpsmnobfrpg.png

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/6FC086C7-FA9C-4F3F-A5A0-1F8FD2D90ADB_zpsgyja8sdd.png

[Phil]

Thing is, ordinarily this would favor a west-based niño, but the extratropics have been trying to force an east based niño with the extended jet through low frequency +NAM/+QBO conduits, so there's a disconnect here.

 

Laughably, the end-result has been a huge destructive-interference pattern across the tropics preventing a more rapid progression into a niño. It would be absolutely hilarious if the system failed to reach its niño state because it couldn't decide whether to go east-based or west-based. Would also allow the polar mode to take charge and continue the return to its neoglacial boreal autumn state, which started in 2013 after being abandoned back in 1998.

 

If we go west-based niño, then we get the midsummer flip to equatorial WHEM subsidence/+PNA, warm west/cold east summer pattern over North America, and a continuation of the +NAO. If we go east-based Niño, the extended jet/GOA trough continues, the west IO warms (+IOD) and the NAO flips negative, allowing more heat/mass transport into the polar domain.

[Phil]

Wind stresses will be reversing over the IO as a result of the ongoing MJO and changing extratropical forcings. This should work the system there towards a more niño-friendly, +IOD SSTA signature.

 

However, the Walker Cell/dateline trade regime does not want to give up just yet.

 

http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/ventrice/real_time/timeLon/u.anom.30.5S-5N.gif

[Phil]

Plus, while there are hints that the IO subsidence regime is trying to slide eastward a bit, if anything it's very slow, which limits the effectiveness of the MJO to assist in forcing a new Pacific background state, because the IO won't budge.

 

http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/ventrice/real_time/timeLon/vp850.anom.30.5S-5N.gif

[TT-SEA]

Latest SSTA update:

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/ocean/cdas-sflux_ssta_global_1.png

 

Lots of warm water around the globe.   

 

The ENSO region is flipping... with the west region warming and the east region cooling bit.  Also some warming of the cold pool in the GOA.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/ocean/cdas-sflux_ssta7diff_global_1.png

[Phil]

There was a surge of EPAC trades which helped cool that domain off somewhat. However, that has just ended, so the EPAC warming should resume this week.

 

Plus the EPAC surface is still torching, with a WPAC cold pool persisting. This will have to reverse for a true Niño regime to take hold:

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ocean/anim/wkxzteq_anm.gif

[Guest happ]

Warm SST off Hawaii for the past several months; currently temps are normal of early summer not mid spring 

 

[Dan the Weatherman]

Warm SST off Hawaii for the past several months; currently temps are normal of early summer not mid spring 

 

That could enhance tropical activity in that region if that warm pool persists into the summer and early fall months.

[Guest happ]

Sobering

 

 

[Jesse]

Sobering

Indeed. Any residual effects of my heavy drinking last night just wore off.

[Phil]

Sobering

What's sobering about it? We've been warming steadily since the end of the LIA, and there's been little (if any) acceleration of sea level rise since that warming started over 400 years ago. This warming has benefitted humanity overall..ideally we'd like to be a few degrees warmer if anything.

 

Sea levels rose just as much from 1880-1950 (natural) as they did from 1950-present (CO^2 comes into play). Over 70% of the sea level rise since the end of the LIA occurred before 1950.

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/45CD1819-F214-46ED-A88D-5F14B3E0C786_zpszq99xz0p.png

 

Also, I'd argue the satellite derived data is more representative of reality than surface data, given vastly more area is measured:

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/FB408DE3-E5A7-4204-A39A-0DE0065C44BA_zpsoe5gomwy.gif

[Phil]

Also, temperatures across most of the NH were demonstrably warmer than today, perhaps as recently as 700 years ago.

 

Solomina et al 2016: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0277379116301196

 

The climate was warmer and glaciers were likely receding in the beginning of the past millennium CE (the “Arkhyz break in glaciation”). … In this pass, remains of wood radiocarbon dated to 700 ± 80 BP (1180–1420 CE) were buried in a 1.5-m-thick layer of alluvium (Kaplin et al., 1971; Kotlyakov et al., 1973). Currently, the upper tree limit is located 800–900 m below this elevation. … According to indirect estimates based on pollen analyses, the upper tree limit in the “Arkhyz” period was 200–300 m higher than today (Tushinsky, Turmanina, 1979). The remains of ancient buildings and roads were also found in the Klukhorsky pass at an elevation of 2781 a.s.l. [above sea level] (Tushinsky et al., 1966), and the glacier was still present at this elevation in the mid 20th century. … n Central and East Transcaucasia, there are artificial terraces at elevations where agriculture is not currently possible and that there are remnants of forests in places where forests have not grown since the 16th century CE.

[Guest happ]

What's sobering about it? We've been warming steadily since the end of the LIA, and there's been little (if any) acceleration of sea level rise since that warming started over 400 years ago. This warming has benefitted humanity overall..ideally we'd like to be a few degrees warmer if anything.

 

Sea levels rose just as much from 1880-1950 (natural) as they did from 1950-present (CO^2 comes into play). Over 70% of the sea level rise since the end of the LIA occurred before 1950.

 

 

Also, I'd argue the satellite derived data is more representative of reality than surface data, given vastly more area is measured:

 

 

I would argue against the notion that warming is good.

[TT-SEA]

I would argue against the notion that warming is good.

 

In the big picture... it probably is good for humanity.   The Little Ice Age was a disaster... it killed an estimated 75 million people including 30-60% of Europe's population at the time.

[Guest happ]

In the big picture... it probably is good for humanity.   The Little Ice Age was a disaster... it killed an estimate 75 million people including 30-60% of Europe's population at the time.

But you are latitudinal biased. 

[Phil]

I would argue against the notion that warming is good.

It's better than cooling. Warmer/wetter conditions in northern latitudes allowing for increased food production, increase in the general vigor of the hydrologic cycle, fewer deaths due to freezing weather (these out-pace heat-related deaths even today). Not to mention we could use a buffer for the next ice age, which will arrive at some point within the next 10,000yrs.

 

The climate is never stable..it's always either warming or cooling, so given the choice, I'd prefer warming.

[Guest happ]

It's better than cooling. Warmer/wetter conditions in northern latitudes allowing for increased food production, increase in the general vigor of the hydrologic cycle, fewer deaths due to freezing weather (these out-pace heat-related deaths even today). Not to mention we could use a buffer for the next ice age, which will arrive at some point within the next 10,000yrs.

 

The climate is never stable..it's always either warming or cooling, so given the choice, I'd prefer warming.

If Tim waits long enough Seattle will have a Mediterranean  climate  

[Phil]

In the big picture... it probably is good for humanity. The Little Ice Age was a disaster... it killed an estimate 75 million people including 30-60% of Europe's population at the time.

Agree. It wasn't just the cooling, but the rapid rate of the cooling that caused so much trouble for humanity.

 

We recently discovered, via higher resolution proxies, that almost 90% of the cooling (about 1.2C to 1.7C across the northern hemisphere) occurred in two distinct "steps", each lasting approximately 30-50 years. The first step change, marking the end of the MWP, may have taken place within a decade.

 

As we continuously develop higher resolution proxies, we've come to find that the most significant climate changes take the form of these so called "step changes", as the system apparently prefers to switch from one quasi-stable state into another quasi-stable state, rather than gradually trend one way or the other. There are fragile thresholds here when it comes to the equator/pole exchange of heat/mass/moisture.

[TT-SEA]

If Tim waits long enough Seattle will have a Mediterranean  climate  

 

Seattle is classified as Csb which is considered a Mediterranean climate.  

 

Mostly due to a well-defined dry summer season.  

[Phil]

During the last ice age, what is now Seattle proper was buried under (literally) a mile of ice. During the Holocene climate optimum ~ 8000yrs ago, the PNW climate was warm enough that the Olympics and Cascades were (mostly) free of snow in the summer, and palm trees grew naturally at sound-level. The climate was much wetter in the PNW, and much drier in the SW compared to today. During the LIA, winters were cold enough to freeze puget sound, as the climate was roughly analogous to that of Juneau, AK, albeit much drier than today.

 

The LIA was a narrowly missed glaciation. Icebergs roared down the Mississippi, into the Gulf of Mexico, marking the sea floor in ways still visible today. New York harbor regularly froze, the SW US was twice as wet as it is today, summers/autumns were dominated by a -EPO type pattern, and winters/springs were dominated by an equally anomalous -NAO type pattern. The Hudson Bay vortex was present year-round.

[Guest happ]

Seattle is classified as Csb which is considered a Mediterranean climate.  

 

Mostly due to a well-defined dry summer season.  

I know palm tree growers who live in the Puget Sound. Seattle is inland a ways like the Sacramento delta; you would lose much marine air. Would that climate suit you as it advances northward?

[Phil]

Regarding decadal-scale predictions of ENSO tendency.

 

Here's a hovmoller-style diagram of tropical SSTAs from 1987 to present, at 3.5 N/S. The black dotted line I drew marks the longitudinal variation in the WPAC warm pool in response to the 11yr solar cycle (lags solar forcing by ~ 3 years).

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/AECFD5C7-1C51-4FD0-978B-991F95341177_zpsebb3dkw4.jpg

 

It's a complex issue, but basically, solar forcing alters photochemical processes in the stratosphere and warms the top of the Hadley Cell, which promotes a +NAM/+SAM and weakens the upper tropospheric lapse rate, which then acts to diminish the Indo-Pacific convection, which weakens the Walker Cell and promotes a Niño background state with relatively enhanced convection away from the compromised Indo-Pacific heat engine.

[Phil]

There's a lag involved, between 3-4 years, given the thermal inertia of the system. That said, the resonance is so clear that when I flip the image sideways, it almost perfectly reflects the solar cycles. You can even see the slow, extended decline of solar cycle 23:

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/AECFD5C7-1C51-4FD0-978B-991F95341177_zpszvob2nny.jpg

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/1052CD8B-A6F9-4CE0-AA31-C4DFF6FA2E07_zpswfve07hy.jpg

[Phil]

So, assuming everything goes according to plan over the next five years, we'll observe the solar minimum modoki El Niño response (final WPAC heat release) around 2019/20, followed by a very strong multiyear La Niña during the early 2020s.

[TT-SEA]

Water is now warmer than normal off our coast and continuing to warm...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/ocean/cdas-sflux_ssta_global_1.png

 

7-day change...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/ocean/cdas-sflux_ssta7diff_global_1.png

[Phil]

FWIW, CDAS also continues to run much warmer globally than NESDIS and every other dataset. Food for thought.

 

http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/2017/anomnight.4.20.2017.gif

[Guest happ]

FWIW, CDAS also continues to run much warmer globally than CDAS and every other dataset. Food for thought.

 

 

Any affect on the Atlantic hurricane season?

[Jesse]

FWIW, CDAS also continues to run much warmer globally than CDAS and every other dataset. Food for thought.

 

http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/2017/anomnight.4.20.2017.gif

CDAS is running warmer than itself?

[epiceast]

Seattle is classified as Csb which is considered a Mediterranean climate.  

 

Mostly due to a well-defined dry summer season.  

And just like that, you signed away your right to ever complain about rain in Seattle!