Jump to content

Welcome to our forums!

Sign In or Register to gain full access to our forums. By registering with us, you'll be able to discuss, share and private message with other members of our community.

Welcome!

Thanks for stopping by the Weather Forums! Please take the time to register and join our community. Feel free to post or start new topics on anything related to the weather or the climate.


Photo

El Nino Watch

- - - - -

  • Please log in to reply

#51
snow_wizard

Posted 20 September 2016 - 05:51 AM

snow_wizard

    The Snow Wizard

  • Mods
  • 10631 posts
  • LocationCovington, WA

The Weatherbell forecast almost reeks of being a wishcast IMO.  I know I'm guilty of that on occasion, but their evidence is thin for going so far outside of climo for a cold ENSO winter.


Death To Warm Anomalies!
 
winter.jpg

Winter 2016-17 Stats

Total snow = 9.8"
Days Min 32 or below = 61
Days Max 32 or below = 1
Days Max Below 40 = 29
Coldest Min = 16

#52
TT-SEA

Posted 20 September 2016 - 06:02 AM

TT-SEA

    Forum Fantastic

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 21465 posts

The Weatherbell forecast almost reeks of being a wishcast IMO.  I know I'm guilty of that on occasion, but their evidence is thin for going so far outside of climo for a cold ENSO winter.


They are letting the new blob dictate their thinking.

#53
snow_wizard

Posted 20 September 2016 - 06:05 AM

snow_wizard

    The Snow Wizard

  • Mods
  • 10631 posts
  • LocationCovington, WA

They are letting the new blob dictate their thinking.

 

I think it might be time for me to contact Nick Bond about this.  The guy who named the blob a couple of years ago.  He may have a far different opinion about its implications given the fact the warmest portion of it is much further offshore now.


Death To Warm Anomalies!
 
winter.jpg

Winter 2016-17 Stats

Total snow = 9.8"
Days Min 32 or below = 61
Days Max 32 or below = 1
Days Max Below 40 = 29
Coldest Min = 16

#54
TT-SEA

Posted 20 September 2016 - 06:06 AM

TT-SEA

    Forum Fantastic

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 21465 posts

I think it might be time for me to contact Nick Bond about this.  The guy who named the blob a couple of years ago.  He may have a far different opinion about its implications given the fact the warmest portion of it is much further offshore now.

 

 

Its just a seasonal forecast... those are usually wrong anyways.     Everyone has opinions... nature will decide.



#55
Black Hole

Posted 20 September 2016 - 07:09 AM

Black Hole

    Daily Contributor

  • Admin
  • 1190 posts
  • LocationBountiful, Ut 84010 ~4575ft

The reality is that Joe B. cannot make level headed forecasts. I have never seen him not forecast a cold east and a warm west. It's the same every single winter. Sometimes it works out, but he clearly is guilty of wishcasting what he wants to see.

 

Of course that doesn't mean he couldn't be right, it could be another warm winter out here. But there are a lot of indicators that this winter will not be another western blowtorch if you ask me. 


  • Jesse, catnip and Mapsyscon like this

BS Atmospheric Science University of Utah May 2015

PhD Candidate Atmospheric Sciences

 

--Emphasis on: Forecasting, Mountain Weather, Numerical Weather Prediction, Data Assimilation

 

Winter 2016/17 Snow:
Nov 17: 3.2", 23: 1.6", 28: 9.2" (14)

Dec 1: .5", 16: 2.5", 25: 13" (16)

Jan 2: 5", 3: 2.4", 4: 7.7", 12: 1", 19: 1.2", 21: 13", 23: 6", 24: 1", 25: 3.7", 26: 2.5" (43.5) 

Feb 11: .5", 23: 6.5", 27: 4.5" (13.5)

Mar 5: 5.5" (5.5)

Apr 8: 2", 9: 1.8" (3.8)

May 17: 1" (1)
Total: 96.3"

Lowest Temp: 2F


#56
Phil

Posted 20 September 2016 - 07:42 AM

Phil

    Forum Fantastic

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 12839 posts
  • LocationCabin John, MD.

Weatherbell's updated winter forecast:

http://www.weatherbe...016-17-forecast

I mean, a lot of it is fairly well reasoned. I think they have nailed the jet placement for winter. I wouldn't be surprised to see the PNW overall be about normal or slightly above in the temp department, but have a couple weeks where the temps are in the deep freeze. Fraser Outflow FTW!


I think they're too far east with the trough axis, but that's what I thought back in 2013/14 as well, and I ended up being wrong.

FWIW, not much science here, but this kinda has vibes of a crappy winter in my area, at least overall, which wouldn't jive with WxBell's outlook. I've noticed that blowtorch summers followed by dry autumns tend to precede warmer than average winters here. My hunches have been wrong before, though.
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Warm season 2017
Thunderstorm days: 10
Severe days: 5
Rain total: 11.58"
Highs at/above 90*F: 16
Warmest high: 99.4*F
Warmest low: 79.7*F

#57
Phil

Posted 20 September 2016 - 07:48 AM

Phil

    Forum Fantastic

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 12839 posts
  • LocationCabin John, MD.

I'm a bit dubious about their use of 2014-15 and 2015-16 as analogs. They were both Ninos after all.


They're using those years as analogs? Woah..

I could see 2013/14, 1995/96, or 1985/86 being valuable additions, but 2014/15 was a +ENSO/-QBO regime, and 2015/16 was, well..yeah.
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Warm season 2017
Thunderstorm days: 10
Severe days: 5
Rain total: 11.58"
Highs at/above 90*F: 16
Warmest high: 99.4*F
Warmest low: 79.7*F

#58
stuffradio

Posted 20 September 2016 - 08:35 AM

stuffradio

    Daily Contributor

  • Mods
  • 2249 posts
  • LocationMaple Ridge, BC

They're using those years as analogs? Woah..

I could see 2013/14, 1995/96, or 1985/86 being valuable additions, but 2014/15 was a +ENSO/-QBO regime, and 2015/16 was, well..yeah.

Yes, they are using 14-15 as well. Having watched Joe B's videos for a long time, he tends to focus on the East coast and provide little to no info for the west coast. Maybe just a quick mention, but then continue to talk about cold in the east.



#59
Front Ranger

Posted 20 September 2016 - 08:50 AM

Front Ranger

    Special Contributor

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 9258 posts
  • LocationWestminster, CO

Yeah, I was running some cross-correlations on ESRL tonight and found something similar. The latitude of the NPAC in October is actually a good predictor of the midwinter NPAC state. Much more predictive than I'd originally thought.

I also found that an Alaskan vortex during the middle & later portions of October is strongly correlated to reduced NPAC blocking during DJF, so I guess that's something we want to avoid. The correlative signal here falls apart in November, however.


Finally coming around to October correlations, huh? ;)

Cool anomalies soothe the soul.


#60
Front Ranger

Posted 20 September 2016 - 08:52 AM

Front Ranger

    Special Contributor

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 9258 posts
  • LocationWestminster, CO

The reality is that Joe B. cannot make level headed forecasts. I have never seen him not forecast a cold east and a warm west. It's the same every single winter. Sometimes it works out, but he clearly is guilty of wishcasting what he wants to see.

Of course that doesn't mean he couldn't be right, it could be another warm winter out here. But there are a lot of indicators that this winter will not be another western blowtorch if you ask me.


2007-08 he went cold west/warm east. That's the only one I remember. Maybe 2010-11.

Cool anomalies soothe the soul.


#61
Phil

Posted 20 September 2016 - 09:10 AM

Phil

    Forum Fantastic

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 12839 posts
  • LocationCabin John, MD.

Finally coming around to October correlations, huh? ;)


Haha, possibly. I've also found a decent correlation between 50mb temperatures over Siberia in November, and the December/January EPO/NAM state and ratio between said states and that of February.
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Warm season 2017
Thunderstorm days: 10
Severe days: 5
Rain total: 11.58"
Highs at/above 90*F: 16
Warmest high: 99.4*F
Warmest low: 79.7*F

#62
Phil

Posted 20 September 2016 - 09:12 AM

Phil

    Forum Fantastic

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 12839 posts
  • LocationCabin John, MD.
If this winter ends up verifying cold central/warm west & east coasts, I guess he could still claim victory.
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Warm season 2017
Thunderstorm days: 10
Severe days: 5
Rain total: 11.58"
Highs at/above 90*F: 16
Warmest high: 99.4*F
Warmest low: 79.7*F

#63
westcoastexpat

Posted 20 September 2016 - 01:46 PM

westcoastexpat

    Forum Contributor

  • Meteorologist
  • PipPipPipPip
  • 860 posts
  • LocationBlaine, WA

They're using those years as analogs? Woah..

I could see 2013/14, 1995/96, or 1985/86 being valuable additions, but 2014/15 was a +ENSO/-QBO regime, and 2015/16 was, well..yeah.


I very much agree with 2013-14

#64
Front Ranger

Posted 20 September 2016 - 03:20 PM

Front Ranger

    Special Contributor

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 9258 posts
  • LocationWestminster, CO

Nice list except for 1966.

 

I have found that strong surface pressure over the NE Pacific in October is perhaps the most important indicator for a cold winter in the NW there is.  I made an index that is a variant of the NPI that looks more specifically at anomalies more in the eastern part of the North Pacific and the correlation is near 100% when dealing with abnormally strong positive anoms.

 

Yeah, no real Arctic air in the PNW that winter, though there was some lowland snowfall with marginal air masses. It was still a fairly blocky winter overall, but most of the cold air spilled east, especially in February.


Cool anomalies soothe the soul.


#65
snow_wizard

Posted 20 September 2016 - 04:44 PM

snow_wizard

    The Snow Wizard

  • Mods
  • 10631 posts
  • LocationCovington, WA

I very much agree with 2013-14

 

Yes...I can see that one, but 14-15?  As it is 2013-14 was the 40th coldest winter on record for WA.


Death To Warm Anomalies!
 
winter.jpg

Winter 2016-17 Stats

Total snow = 9.8"
Days Min 32 or below = 61
Days Max 32 or below = 1
Days Max Below 40 = 29
Coldest Min = 16

#66
westcoastexpat

Posted 21 September 2016 - 03:41 AM

westcoastexpat

    Forum Contributor

  • Meteorologist
  • PipPipPipPip
  • 860 posts
  • LocationBlaine, WA

Yes...I can see that one, but 14-15? As it is 2013-14 was the 40th coldest winter on record for WA.


I don't agree with 14-15 either. That was a weird winter.

#67
stuffradio

Posted 21 September 2016 - 08:02 AM

stuffradio

    Daily Contributor

  • Mods
  • 2249 posts
  • LocationMaple Ridge, BC

13-14 did have some cold shots, and that "snow" (flurries) during the Heritage classic on March 1 in Vancouver.



#68
ShawniganLake

Posted 21 September 2016 - 08:17 AM

ShawniganLake

    Advanced Member

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 3096 posts
  • LocationShawnigan Lake, BC. Southern Vancouver Island, 500ft

13-14 did have some cold shots, and that "snow" (flurries) during the Heritage classic on March 1 in Vancouver.

The end of February was snowy in SW BC but not overly cold. Snow was wet though and had a hard time sticking down near sea level. I would think the main point to complain about that year was the lack of moisture with the December and early February cold spells. Snowpacks were concerning low after a dry and mild mid winter. Driest December ever at Shawnigan lake, I doubt we see a repeat of that. February and March saw a recovery in that department.

#69
Farmboy

Posted 21 September 2016 - 06:06 PM

Farmboy

    Forum Member

  • Members
  • PipPipPip
  • 170 posts

I think it might be time for me to contact Nick Bond about this.  The guy who named the blob a couple of years ago.  He may have a far different opinion about its implications given the fact the warmest portion of it is much further offshore now.

Ok, maybe I don't know what I'm talking about here, I'm just asking, but is this at all indicative of where blocking high pressure could set up?   And if so, is this the favored location that we would like to see for arctic air intrusions in the PNW?



#70
snow_wizard

Posted 21 September 2016 - 09:03 PM

snow_wizard

    The Snow Wizard

  • Mods
  • 10631 posts
  • LocationCovington, WA

13-14 did have some cold shots, and that "snow" (flurries) during the Heritage classic on March 1 in Vancouver.

 

Portland got nailed in February.  The two cold shots were pretty impressive also.  The interesting thing is how perfectly 2013-14 mirrored 1932-33 and 2014-15 mirrored 1933-34 in spite of the ENSO being totally different.


Death To Warm Anomalies!
 
winter.jpg

Winter 2016-17 Stats

Total snow = 9.8"
Days Min 32 or below = 61
Days Max 32 or below = 1
Days Max Below 40 = 29
Coldest Min = 16

#71
snow_wizard

Posted 21 September 2016 - 09:05 PM

snow_wizard

    The Snow Wizard

  • Mods
  • 10631 posts
  • LocationCovington, WA

Ok, maybe I don't know what I'm talking about here, I'm just asking, but is this at all indicative of where blocking high pressure could set up?   And if so, is this the favored location that we would like to see for arctic air intrusions in the PNW?

 

Yes.

 

The perfect location for blocking for cold in the NW is between 140W and 155W.  150 is the sweet spot for major cold and snow.


Death To Warm Anomalies!
 
winter.jpg

Winter 2016-17 Stats

Total snow = 9.8"
Days Min 32 or below = 61
Days Max 32 or below = 1
Days Max Below 40 = 29
Coldest Min = 16

#72
Phil

Posted 21 September 2016 - 09:08 PM

Phil

    Forum Fantastic

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 12839 posts
  • LocationCabin John, MD.

Yes.

The perfect location for blocking for cold in the NW is between 140W and 155W. 150 is the sweet spot for major cold and snow.


I think he's asking if "the blob" is indicative of where the blocking will set up in the future?

I'd personally say no, the blob is indicative of where the blocking has already been, which is indicative of a systematic tendency, that might continue into the future.
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Warm season 2017
Thunderstorm days: 10
Severe days: 5
Rain total: 11.58"
Highs at/above 90*F: 16
Warmest high: 99.4*F
Warmest low: 79.7*F

#73
snow_wizard

Posted 21 September 2016 - 09:50 PM

snow_wizard

    The Snow Wizard

  • Mods
  • 10631 posts
  • LocationCovington, WA

I think he's asking if "the blob" is indicative of where the blocking will set up in the future?

I'd personally say no, the blob is indicative of where the blocking has already been, which is indicative of a systematic tendency, that might continue into the future.

 

I totally agree with this.  The persistence this summer suggests future blocking will probably set up in a similar location.


  • Phil likes this
Death To Warm Anomalies!
 
winter.jpg

Winter 2016-17 Stats

Total snow = 9.8"
Days Min 32 or below = 61
Days Max 32 or below = 1
Days Max Below 40 = 29
Coldest Min = 16

#74
westcoastexpat

Posted 22 September 2016 - 06:25 AM

westcoastexpat

    Forum Contributor

  • Meteorologist
  • PipPipPipPip
  • 860 posts
  • LocationBlaine, WA

I totally agree with this.  The persistence this summer suggests future blocking will probably set up in a similar location.

 

It's a fair assessment.

 

Blob years:

2013-2014 winter: deep trough in east

2014 summer: hot in west, cold in east

2014-2015 winter: western ridging

2015 summer: hot in west

 

It's not a bad assumption to expect a SE ridge this winter.

 

I again have to maintain that I don't think cold will be tough to get this winter for the PNW, but aligning it with moisture will be the challenge...



#75
Phil

Posted 22 September 2016 - 07:03 AM

Phil

    Forum Fantastic

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 12839 posts
  • LocationCabin John, MD.

It's a fair assessment.

Blob years:
2013-2014 winter: deep trough in east
2014 summer: hot in west, cold in east
2014-2015 winter: western ridging
2015 summer: hot in west

It's not a bad assumption to expect a SE ridge this winter.

I again have to maintain that I don't think cold will be tough to get this winter for the PNW, but aligning it with moisture will be the challenge...


Blob summer of 2016: Dominant western trough, blast furnace in the east.
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Warm season 2017
Thunderstorm days: 10
Severe days: 5
Rain total: 11.58"
Highs at/above 90*F: 16
Warmest high: 99.4*F
Warmest low: 79.7*F

#76
Front Ranger

Posted 22 September 2016 - 07:13 AM

Front Ranger

    Special Contributor

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 9258 posts
  • LocationWestminster, CO

Blob summer of 2016: Dominant western trough, blast furnace in the east.

 

Not exactly.

 

Attached File  JJA16TDeptUS.png   15.15KB   0 downloads


Cool anomalies soothe the soul.


#77
Phil

Posted 22 September 2016 - 07:48 AM

Phil

    Forum Fantastic

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 12839 posts
  • LocationCabin John, MD.

Not exactly.

JJA16TDeptUS.png


Should have said July-September.

There was no "blob" in June.

46B8FC56-E60D-468D-BC48-A5E6FE9E8480_zps
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Warm season 2017
Thunderstorm days: 10
Severe days: 5
Rain total: 11.58"
Highs at/above 90*F: 16
Warmest high: 99.4*F
Warmest low: 79.7*F

#78
Front Ranger

Posted 22 September 2016 - 08:10 AM

Front Ranger

    Special Contributor

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 9258 posts
  • LocationWestminster, CO

Gotcha. Yeah, Jul-Sep has definitely fit that profile more.


Cool anomalies soothe the soul.


#79
luvssnow_seattle

Posted 22 September 2016 - 01:59 PM

luvssnow_seattle

    Epic is always possible... 1% of the time!

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 3136 posts
  • LocationBonney Lake - 560ft

It's a fair assessment.

 

Blob years:

2013-2014 winter: deep trough in east

2014 summer: hot in west, cold in east

2014-2015 winter: western ridging

2015 summer: hot in west

 

It's not a bad assumption to expect a SE ridge this winter.

 

I again have to maintain that I don't think cold will be tough to get this winter for the PNW, but aligning it with moisture will be the challenge...

 

That is and always will be a challenge here... Even if we do get moisture then we often have to deal with the puget sound rain shadow. Albeit it always keeps us guessing. Bring on the frost we can count on that for sure. 



#80
Phil

Posted 22 September 2016 - 02:08 PM

Phil

    Forum Fantastic

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 12839 posts
  • LocationCabin John, MD.
Where's all this warm water coming from?

cdas-sflux_ssta7diff_global_1.png

cdas-sflux_ssta_global_1.png
  • happ likes this
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Warm season 2017
Thunderstorm days: 10
Severe days: 5
Rain total: 11.58"
Highs at/above 90*F: 16
Warmest high: 99.4*F
Warmest low: 79.7*F

#81
TT-SEA

Posted 22 September 2016 - 02:10 PM

TT-SEA

    Forum Fantastic

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 21465 posts

Where's all this warm water coming from?

cdas-sflux_ssta7diff_global_1.png

cdas-sflux_ssta_global_1.png

 

 

Good question.   



#82
Phil

Posted 22 September 2016 - 02:14 PM

Phil

    Forum Fantastic

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 12839 posts
  • LocationCabin John, MD.

Good question.


I'm stumped. Don't see evidence of any major oceanic KW, and unlikely to be a result of instability waves or convergence, according to the surface-current datasets.

Sort of like bumble bees being able to fly..sometimes nature just doesn't give a s**t about what we think it should do, I guess.
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Warm season 2017
Thunderstorm days: 10
Severe days: 5
Rain total: 11.58"
Highs at/above 90*F: 16
Warmest high: 99.4*F
Warmest low: 79.7*F

#83
TT-SEA

Posted 22 September 2016 - 02:23 PM

TT-SEA

    Forum Fantastic

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 21465 posts

I'm stumped. Don't see evidence of any major oceanic KW, and unlikely to be a result of instability waves or convergence, according to the surface-current datasets.

Sort of like bumble bees being able to fly..sometimes nature just doesn't give a s**t about what we think it should do, I guess.

 

 

Also looks like the most of the Earth has warmer than normal ocean water.



#84
Jesse

Posted 22 September 2016 - 02:26 PM

Jesse

    Forum Fantastic

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 15608 posts
  • LocationEast Vancouver, WA (300')
This would only make sense if there were some sort of unnatural force warming the entire globe...but that is crazy talk.

#85
Phil

Posted 22 September 2016 - 02:27 PM

Phil

    Forum Fantastic

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 12839 posts
  • LocationCabin John, MD.

Also looks like the most of the Earth has warmer than normal ocean water.


Yeah, classic for off-equator SSTAs to go nuclear following a super-niño.
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Warm season 2017
Thunderstorm days: 10
Severe days: 5
Rain total: 11.58"
Highs at/above 90*F: 16
Warmest high: 99.4*F
Warmest low: 79.7*F

#86
TT-SEA

Posted 22 September 2016 - 02:28 PM

TT-SEA

    Forum Fantastic

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 21465 posts

Or natural forces warming the entire globe.  



#87
Phil

Posted 22 September 2016 - 02:35 PM

Phil

    Forum Fantastic

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 12839 posts
  • LocationCabin John, MD.

Or natural forces warming the entire globe.


This was the first super niño to occur/superimpose itself on the very warm 2001-present background state, so yeah it's definitely a different look.

Global SSTAs should drop significantly over the next several years, however.
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Warm season 2017
Thunderstorm days: 10
Severe days: 5
Rain total: 11.58"
Highs at/above 90*F: 16
Warmest high: 99.4*F
Warmest low: 79.7*F

#88
TT-SEA

Posted 22 September 2016 - 02:37 PM

TT-SEA

    Forum Fantastic

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 21465 posts

This was the first super niño to occur/superimpose itself on the very warm 2001-present background state, so yeah it's definitely a different look.

Global SSTAs should drop significantly over the next several years, however.

 

 

Sort of like bumble bees being able to fly..sometimes nature just doesn't give a s**t about what we think it should do, I guess.

 


#89
Phil

Posted 22 September 2016 - 02:37 PM

Phil

    Forum Fantastic

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 12839 posts
  • LocationCabin John, MD.


Haha, we'll see I guess.
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Warm season 2017
Thunderstorm days: 10
Severe days: 5
Rain total: 11.58"
Highs at/above 90*F: 16
Warmest high: 99.4*F
Warmest low: 79.7*F

#90
stuffradio

Posted 22 September 2016 - 03:07 PM

stuffradio

    Daily Contributor

  • Mods
  • 2249 posts
  • LocationMaple Ridge, BC

This would only make sense if there were some sort of unnatural force warming the entire globe...but that is crazy talk.

It's aliens.. or the NWO.



#91
ShawniganLake

Posted 22 September 2016 - 03:15 PM

ShawniganLake

    Advanced Member

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 3096 posts
  • LocationShawnigan Lake, BC. Southern Vancouver Island, 500ft

Where's all this warm water coming from?

cdas-sflux_ssta7diff_global_1.png

cdas-sflux_ssta_global_1.png

The blob is feeding it.........we're screwed.
  • Phil likes this

#92
Front Ranger

Posted 22 September 2016 - 04:25 PM

Front Ranger

    Special Contributor

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 9258 posts
  • LocationWestminster, CO
It's Godzilla, guys.

Cool anomalies soothe the soul.


#93
Deweydog

Posted 22 September 2016 - 05:17 PM

Deweydog

    Forum Fantastic

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 11690 posts
  • LocationHockinson, WA

The blob is feeding it.........we're screwed.


I thought the blob was annihilated by all that tropical churning last week???

All roads lead to Walgreens.  


#94
snow_wizard

Posted 22 September 2016 - 06:05 PM

snow_wizard

    The Snow Wizard

  • Mods
  • 10631 posts
  • LocationCovington, WA

 

That is and always will be a challenge here... Even if we do get moisture then we often have to deal with the puget sound rain shadow. Albeit it always keeps us guessing. Bring on the frost we can count on that for sure. 

 

 

You're only referring to recent years.  It used to be much more common.


Death To Warm Anomalies!
 
winter.jpg

Winter 2016-17 Stats

Total snow = 9.8"
Days Min 32 or below = 61
Days Max 32 or below = 1
Days Max Below 40 = 29
Coldest Min = 16

#95
ShawniganLake

Posted 23 September 2016 - 07:57 AM

ShawniganLake

    Advanced Member

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 3096 posts
  • LocationShawnigan Lake, BC. Southern Vancouver Island, 500ft

Nino3.4 has gone positive for the first time since early July.  WTF



#96
Weather101

Posted 23 September 2016 - 10:10 AM

Weather101

    Daily Contributor

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 1063 posts
  • LocationVancouver BC

Nino3.4 has gone positive for the first time since early July. WTF


Ok this is kinda funny lol like there's always a new way to screw us over 😂
2013/2014 Winter season
Coldest Low: 14 F December 7th
Coldest High: 27.3 F December 7th
Coldest Wind chill: 5 F December 7th
Lowest Dew Point: -2.2 F December 6th
Days below freezing: 5
Total Snowfall: 11 inches
Most snowfall in a Day: 8 inches
Days With Snow: 3

#97
BLI snowman

Posted 23 September 2016 - 10:23 AM

BLI snowman

    Special Contributor

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 5108 posts
  • LocationRidgefield, WA

Nino3.4 has gone positive for the first time since early July.  WTF

 

I doubt it, CPC has it at -0.6 on 9/14

 

http://www.cpc.ncep....s/wksst8110.for



#98
stuffradio

Posted 23 September 2016 - 10:32 AM

stuffradio

    Daily Contributor

  • Mods
  • 2249 posts
  • LocationMaple Ridge, BC

Nino3.4 has gone positive for the first time since early July.  WTF

What's your source? It's showing negative for me still.



#99
ShawniganLake

Posted 23 September 2016 - 10:53 AM

ShawniganLake

    Advanced Member

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 3096 posts
  • LocationShawnigan Lake, BC. Southern Vancouver Island, 500ft

What's your source? It's showing negative for me still.

Maybe this is way off. Not sure

Attached File  image.png   45.17KB   0 downloads

#100
Phil

Posted 23 September 2016 - 12:04 PM

Phil

    Forum Fantastic

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 12839 posts
  • LocationCabin John, MD.
Yikes..could the CDAS data be flawed in some way? Trades have been stronger than average, subsurface is quite cold, yet..

cdas-sflux_ssta7diff_global_1.png

cdas-sflux_ssta_global_1.png
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Warm season 2017
Thunderstorm days: 10
Severe days: 5
Rain total: 11.58"
Highs at/above 90*F: 16
Warmest high: 99.4*F
Warmest low: 79.7*F