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#1251
Black Hole

Posted 05 February 2018 - 12:47 PM

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What are peoples thoughts going forwards for 2018/2019? Any early ideas?

I usually wait till after spring to think too much about ENSO because models usually can't forecast well until we get past that point. 


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BS Atmospheric Science University of Utah May 2015

PhD Candidate Atmospheric Sciences

 

--Emphasis on: Forecasting, Mountain Weather, Numerical Weather Prediction, Data Assimilation

 

Winter 2017/2018

Dec 4: 3.2", 16: 0.9", 20: 2.1", 23: 1.5", 25: 4.6"

Jan 6: 1.5", 20: 10.8", 25: 1.5"

Feb 19: 8.6", 20: 2.4", 23: 7.1", 25: .5"

Mar 4: 13", 15: 1.8", 17: 5.3", 25: 4.2"

April 12: 1", 17: 1.3"

Total: 69.3"

 

 

Winter 2016/17 Snow:
Nov 17: 3.2", 23: 1.6", 28: 9.2" (14)

Dec 1: .5", 16: 2.5", 25: 13" (16)

Jan 2: 5", 3: 2.4", 4: 7.7", 12: 1", 19: 1.2", 21: 13", 23: 6", 24: 1", 25: 3.7", 26: 2.5" (43.5) 

Feb 11: .5", 23: 6.5", 27: 4.5" (13.5)

Mar 5: 5.5" (5.5)

Apr 8: 2", 9: 1.8" (3.8)

May 17: 1" (1)
Total: 96.3"

Lowest Temp: 2F


#1252
Dan the Weatherman

Posted 05 February 2018 - 02:14 PM

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What are peoples thoughts going forwards for 2018/2019? Any early ideas?

I usually wait till after spring to think too much about ENSO because models usually can't forecast well until we get past that point. 

 

Whatever happens ENSO wise, I hope it has a much more favorable outcome for bringing needed rain and snow to a much broader region of the west including CA, the SW, and the Intermountain region.


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#1253
Phil

Posted 05 February 2018 - 02:55 PM

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What are peoples thoughts going forwards for 2018/2019? Any early ideas?

I usually wait till after spring to think too much about ENSO because models usually can't forecast well until we get past that point.


El Niño head fake, then retraction to ENSO neutral for winter 2018/19.

Two downwelling OKWs propagating eastward will start warming the Pacific soon, but -QBO/Indo-Pacific enhancement will destructively interfere and probably prevent an El Niño, IMO.
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Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Warm Season 2018
90+ degree days: 5
Thunderstorm Days: 5
Severe Days: 1
Total rainfall: 1.77”
Highest Gust: 54mph
Warmest High: 94.6*F
Warmest low: 65.5*F

Live Weather Stream

#1254
TT-SEA

Posted 05 February 2018 - 03:43 PM

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El Niño head fake, then retraction to ENSO neutral for winter 2018/19.

Two downwelling OKWs propagating eastward will start warming the Pacific soon, but -QBO/Indo-Pacific enhancement will destructively interfere and probably prevent an El Niño, IMO.

 

We had a El Nino "head fake" in 2014 as well.     Peaked in May or June and then fell back to warm neutral.  



#1255
Phil

Posted 05 February 2018 - 04:11 PM

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We had a El Nino "head fake" in 2014 as well. Peaked in May or June and then fell back to warm neutral.


I don’t think 2014 was a head fake. Technically the system was transitioning into super niño boundary conditions through most of 2014.

This year is solar min/-QBO with warm Indo-Pacific SSTs, while 2014 was solar max/+QBO with cold Indo-Pacific SSTs. So almost an opposite starting point as far as boundary conditions are concerned.
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Warm Season 2018
90+ degree days: 5
Thunderstorm Days: 5
Severe Days: 1
Total rainfall: 1.77”
Highest Gust: 54mph
Warmest High: 94.6*F
Warmest low: 65.5*F

Live Weather Stream

#1256
TT-SEA

Posted 05 February 2018 - 04:22 PM

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I don’t think 2014 was a head fake. Technically the system was transitioning into super niño boundary conditions through most of 2014.

This year is solar min/-QBO with warm Indo-Pacific SSTs, while 2014 was solar max/+QBO with cold Indo-Pacific SSTs. So almost an opposite starting point as far as boundary conditions are concerned.

 

Call it what you want... but I remember lots of hype around a strengthening El Nino early in the summer of 2014 and then it just fizzled into nothing.    



#1257
Phil

Posted 05 February 2018 - 07:09 PM

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Call it what you want... but I remember lots of hype around a strengthening El Nino early in the summer of 2014 and then it just fizzled into nothing.


That was because climate models were pumping out super niño solutions like there was no tomorrow.

However, that doesn’t mean the climate system itself actually “head faked”. Quite to the contrary, actually.
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Warm Season 2018
90+ degree days: 5
Thunderstorm Days: 5
Severe Days: 1
Total rainfall: 1.77”
Highest Gust: 54mph
Warmest High: 94.6*F
Warmest low: 65.5*F

Live Weather Stream

#1258
TT-SEA

Posted 05 February 2018 - 07:22 PM

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That was because climate models were pumping out super niño solutions like there was no tomorrow.

However, that doesn’t mean the climate system itself actually “head faked”. Quite to the contrary, actually.

 

I thought a "head fake" means that it will look like we are heading towards a Nino early on and then it will fail.    That is what you are describing and that is what happened in 2014 as well.  



#1259
Webberweather53

Posted 05 February 2018 - 09:11 PM

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What are peoples thoughts going forwards for 2018/2019? Any early ideas?

I usually wait till after spring to think too much about ENSO because models usually can't forecast well until we get past that point. 

 

We have all the classic early warning signs to an oncoming El Nino event atm (big WP MJO event in Feb-Mar, monster +PMM) and we're doing just about everything right to get there, I see no reason to believe why even a moderate event is impossible to achieve. 3 weeks + of anomalous westerly winds near the dateline will take its toll and trigger a beastly downwelling kelvin wave which is already forming over the western boundary region based on recent TAO data, may not be quite as strong as the ones that preceded 1997 & 2015 but it won't be a slouch either.


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#1260
Black Hole

Posted 05 February 2018 - 09:44 PM

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Thanks for the insights everyone.


BS Atmospheric Science University of Utah May 2015

PhD Candidate Atmospheric Sciences

 

--Emphasis on: Forecasting, Mountain Weather, Numerical Weather Prediction, Data Assimilation

 

Winter 2017/2018

Dec 4: 3.2", 16: 0.9", 20: 2.1", 23: 1.5", 25: 4.6"

Jan 6: 1.5", 20: 10.8", 25: 1.5"

Feb 19: 8.6", 20: 2.4", 23: 7.1", 25: .5"

Mar 4: 13", 15: 1.8", 17: 5.3", 25: 4.2"

April 12: 1", 17: 1.3"

Total: 69.3"

 

 

Winter 2016/17 Snow:
Nov 17: 3.2", 23: 1.6", 28: 9.2" (14)

Dec 1: .5", 16: 2.5", 25: 13" (16)

Jan 2: 5", 3: 2.4", 4: 7.7", 12: 1", 19: 1.2", 21: 13", 23: 6", 24: 1", 25: 3.7", 26: 2.5" (43.5) 

Feb 11: .5", 23: 6.5", 27: 4.5" (13.5)

Mar 5: 5.5" (5.5)

Apr 8: 2", 9: 1.8" (3.8)

May 17: 1" (1)
Total: 96.3"

Lowest Temp: 2F


#1261
Phil

Posted 05 February 2018 - 09:55 PM

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We have all the classic early warning signs to an oncoming El Nino event atm (big WP MJO event in Feb-Mar, monster +PMM) and we're doing just about everything right to get there, I see no reason to believe why even a moderate event is impossible to achieve. 3 weeks + of anomalous westerly winds near the dateline will take its toll and trigger a beastly downwelling kelvin wave which is already forming over the western boundary region based on recent TAO data, may not be quite as strong as the ones that preceded 1997 & 2015 but it won't be a slouch either.


I don’t know..when was the last time a niño followed a super niño by just 3 years? Maybe the late 1960s would be the closest match to that progression (1968/69 following the 1965/66 event)?

I think with solar favoring an initial westward retraction IPWP/weaker mascarene high, we should avoid a moderate niño.
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Warm Season 2018
90+ degree days: 5
Thunderstorm Days: 5
Severe Days: 1
Total rainfall: 1.77”
Highest Gust: 54mph
Warmest High: 94.6*F
Warmest low: 65.5*F

Live Weather Stream

#1262
Black Hole

Posted 05 February 2018 - 10:35 PM

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I don’t know..when was the last time a niño followed a super niño by just 3 years? Maybe the late 1960s would be the closest match to that progression (1968/69 following the 1965/66 event)?

I think with solar favoring an initial westward retraction IPWP/weaker mascarene high, we should avoid a moderate niño.

That, and the fact that we only had a weak and then moderate nina the last two winters (underwhelming). It feels like we still have a little while before the system would swing back to a nino. 


BS Atmospheric Science University of Utah May 2015

PhD Candidate Atmospheric Sciences

 

--Emphasis on: Forecasting, Mountain Weather, Numerical Weather Prediction, Data Assimilation

 

Winter 2017/2018

Dec 4: 3.2", 16: 0.9", 20: 2.1", 23: 1.5", 25: 4.6"

Jan 6: 1.5", 20: 10.8", 25: 1.5"

Feb 19: 8.6", 20: 2.4", 23: 7.1", 25: .5"

Mar 4: 13", 15: 1.8", 17: 5.3", 25: 4.2"

April 12: 1", 17: 1.3"

Total: 69.3"

 

 

Winter 2016/17 Snow:
Nov 17: 3.2", 23: 1.6", 28: 9.2" (14)

Dec 1: .5", 16: 2.5", 25: 13" (16)

Jan 2: 5", 3: 2.4", 4: 7.7", 12: 1", 19: 1.2", 21: 13", 23: 6", 24: 1", 25: 3.7", 26: 2.5" (43.5) 

Feb 11: .5", 23: 6.5", 27: 4.5" (13.5)

Mar 5: 5.5" (5.5)

Apr 8: 2", 9: 1.8" (3.8)

May 17: 1" (1)
Total: 96.3"

Lowest Temp: 2F


#1263
Phil

Posted 05 February 2018 - 11:25 PM

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That, and the fact that we only had a weak and then moderate nina the last two winters (underwhelming). It feels like we still have a little while before the system would swing back to a nino.


It’s also very early in the solar cycle for the typical +ENSO backswing (usually occurs just after the minimum). The only decent match I can think of is 1994/95, which was also a pre-minimum Niño following a prolonged +NAM/+ENSO stretch under +PDO/+PMM boundary conditions.

That said, “expect the unexpected” has certainly been the theme of the last several years, so who knows. :lol:
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Warm Season 2018
90+ degree days: 5
Thunderstorm Days: 5
Severe Days: 1
Total rainfall: 1.77”
Highest Gust: 54mph
Warmest High: 94.6*F
Warmest low: 65.5*F

Live Weather Stream

#1264
Phil

Posted 05 February 2018 - 11:29 PM

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I thought a "head fake" means that it will look like we are heading towards a Nino early on and then it will fail. That is what you are describing and that is what happened in 2014 as well.


I meant in terms of the Pacific looking like it will enter into an El Niño, then pulling back. I don’t give a crap what models do before July/August.
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Warm Season 2018
90+ degree days: 5
Thunderstorm Days: 5
Severe Days: 1
Total rainfall: 1.77”
Highest Gust: 54mph
Warmest High: 94.6*F
Warmest low: 65.5*F

Live Weather Stream

#1265
Webberweather53

Posted 06 February 2018 - 04:34 AM

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I don’t know..when was the last time a niño followed a super niño by just 3 years? Maybe the late 1960s would be the closest match to that progression (1968/69 following the 1965/66 event)?

I think with solar favoring an initial westward retraction IPWP/weaker mascarene high, we should avoid a moderate niño.

 

It's well within the realm of natural variability for this to happen, the historical record even going back to the mid 19th century is way too short to capture a majority let alone the most of the inter annual variability w/ ENSO especially when your sample size of super El Ninos amounts to just several events w/ highly variable background state. 1877-78 & 2015-16 share a lot more in common with each other than either 1982-83 & 1997-98 imo, and a weak El Nino followed in 1880-81 and its ONI value likely peaked somewhere between +0.60-0.75C. 1891 is the most classical example of a NINO head fake before 1950, but it started out w/ a much colder base state, following in the footsteps of a strong and a weak La Nina in 1889-90, & 1890-91 respectively. A strong El Nino in 1896-97 was followed by a borderline moderate-strong El Nino in 1899-00, a multi-year weak-moderate El Nino in 1904-06 followed on the heels of a strong El Nino in 1902-03 that coincided with the Santa Maria Eruption in 1902. I'm doubtful solar activity will be influential enough to put a damper on a moderate event if it manages to transpire, the forcing out of the gate this year is comparable to the most intense events in the modern era and this weak downwelling wave in the east Pacific has already pre-conditioned the tropical Pacific for the big kelvin wave that's about to emerge. Anything from another La Nina to a borderline moderate-strong El Nino is legitimately possible, but I'm leaning towards an El Nino more so than neutral ENSO or La Nina. Given the profound MJO pulse currently ongoing in the WP before the Vernal Equinox that's comparable to the events that preceded the 1997-98 & 2015-16 super events, and the record +PMM this past January, with approximately two-thirds of all +PMM events in observations and NWP simulations are followed by El Ninos, the magnitude of this +PMM stint may be increasing those odds even further for an El Nino this year. This is showing all the classic early warning signs of an oncoming El Nino, whether or not one actually transpires and how strong it becomes remains to be seen but I think the chances are at least probable (~50-60%) even this early in the game. Just about everything you look for from a dynamical sense is on the table and we're doing everything we need to do to get ourselves there, we just need to see how this evolves through the spring predictability barrier before we can confidently speculate one way or the other.


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#1266
Webberweather53

Posted 06 February 2018 - 05:04 AM

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It’s also very early in the solar cycle for the typical +ENSO backswing (usually occurs just after the minimum). The only decent match I can think of is 1994/95, which was also a pre-minimum Niño following a prolonged +NAM/+ENSO stretch under +PDO/+PMM boundary conditions.

That said, “expect the unexpected” has certainly been the theme of the last several years, so who knows. :lol:

 

This solar cycle is anything but typical, we haven't seen anything like it in a century or two, if not more, the longevity of the solar cycle and broad minimum will probably change the forcing response and phase in the cycle where substantial El Ninos begin to appear. You really have to go back to at least the late 19th century or resort to proxy records to find comparable examples, the record shows (1896-97 >>> 1899-00) that moderate to even strong El Ninos aren't dynamically impossible after a huge event, and strong, multi-year El Ninos like 2015-16 are more commonplace than the post-1950 modern record is willing to admit. I'm sure you could also not entirely rule out the possibility that the warming background climate and low frequency changes in the Hadley Cell network are hastening the recovery of the Indo-West Pacific warm pool at least a little bit compared to what it used to be.


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#1267
Webberweather53

Posted 06 February 2018 - 05:10 AM

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Here comes the next Kelvin Wave in response to this big WP MJO event, notice the warming subsurface temps and thermocline suppression at the end of the animation.

wkxzteq_anm.gif



#1268
Black Hole

Posted 06 February 2018 - 06:58 AM

Black Hole

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What does +PMM stand for btw?


BS Atmospheric Science University of Utah May 2015

PhD Candidate Atmospheric Sciences

 

--Emphasis on: Forecasting, Mountain Weather, Numerical Weather Prediction, Data Assimilation

 

Winter 2017/2018

Dec 4: 3.2", 16: 0.9", 20: 2.1", 23: 1.5", 25: 4.6"

Jan 6: 1.5", 20: 10.8", 25: 1.5"

Feb 19: 8.6", 20: 2.4", 23: 7.1", 25: .5"

Mar 4: 13", 15: 1.8", 17: 5.3", 25: 4.2"

April 12: 1", 17: 1.3"

Total: 69.3"

 

 

Winter 2016/17 Snow:
Nov 17: 3.2", 23: 1.6", 28: 9.2" (14)

Dec 1: .5", 16: 2.5", 25: 13" (16)

Jan 2: 5", 3: 2.4", 4: 7.7", 12: 1", 19: 1.2", 21: 13", 23: 6", 24: 1", 25: 3.7", 26: 2.5" (43.5) 

Feb 11: .5", 23: 6.5", 27: 4.5" (13.5)

Mar 5: 5.5" (5.5)

Apr 8: 2", 9: 1.8" (3.8)

May 17: 1" (1)
Total: 96.3"

Lowest Temp: 2F


#1269
Webberweather53

Posted 06 February 2018 - 10:51 AM

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What does +PMM stand for btw?

 

The PMM is the Pacific Meridional Mode it essentially refers to the meridional variability in winds and SST in the eastern tropical-subtropical Pacific Ocean, recent NWP simulations w/ support from observations support the notion that the Pacific Meridional Mode is not a statistical artifact and is indeed a legitimate phenomenon that may influence the seasonality of ENSO and the probability distribution frequency (PDF) for certain phases in subsequent months and years. It's essentially a conduit through which extratropical variability (like the North Pacific Oscillation (NPO)) can influence ENSO.

 

https://www.esrl.noa...es/monthly/PMM/

 

Zhang, Chang, & Li (2008) detail the relationships between the PMM and ENSO and decipher how the PMM can serve as a precursor to ENSO behavior. They essentially say that given a build-up of heat in the warm pool region (which we currently have) a +PMM can significantly influence the probability of ENSO events, and they also mention that ENSO events coupled to the meridional mode are often associated w/ more significant thermocline anomalies during the onset phase. ENSO events not tied to the PMM generally involve internal ocean memory and non-linear feedback between a heating flux anomaly near the edge of the warm pool that quickly grows upscale. This study also found that observations and NWP simulations were generally consistent w/ the probability of El Nino given a +PMM, which is approximately 60-70% (~2/3rds) and this figure may be higher in this situation because we already have a build-up of heat lurking in the warm pool that fits the behavior of ENSO events influenced by the PMM, and the +PMM was in record territory this past January. We'll see!


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#1270
Phil

Posted 06 February 2018 - 01:36 PM

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It's well within the realm of natural variability for this to happen, the historical record even going back to the mid 19th century is way too short to capture a majority let alone the most of the inter annual variability w/ ENSO especially when your sample size of super El Ninos amounts to just several events w/ highly variable background state. 1877-78 & 2015-16 share a lot more in common with each other than either 1982-83 & 1997-98 imo, and a weak El Nino followed in 1880-81 and its ONI value likely peaked somewhere between +0.60-0.75C. 1891 is the most classical example of a NINO head fake before 1950, but it started out w/ a much colder base state, following in the footsteps of a strong and a weak La Nina in 1889-90, & 1890-91 respectively. A strong El Nino in 1896-97 was followed by a borderline moderate-strong El Nino in 1899-00, a multi-year weak-moderate El Nino in 1904-06 followed on the heels of a strong El Nino in 1902-03 that coincided with the Santa Maria Eruption in 1902. I'm doubtful solar activity will be influential enough to put a damper on a moderate event if it manages to transpire, the forcing out of the gate this year is comparable to the most intense events in the modern era and this weak downwelling wave in the east Pacific has already pre-conditioned the tropical Pacific for the big kelvin wave that's about to emerge. Anything from another La Nina to a borderline moderate-strong El Nino is legitimately possible, but I'm leaning towards an El Nino more so than neutral ENSO or La Nina. Given the profound MJO pulse currently ongoing in the WP before the Vernal Equinox that's comparable to the events that preceded the 1997-98 & 2015-16 super events, and the record +PMM this past January, with approximately two-thirds of all +PMM events in observations and NWP simulations are followed by El Ninos, the magnitude of this +PMM stint may be increasing those odds even further for an El Nino this year. This is showing all the classic early warning signs of an oncoming El Nino, whether or not one actually transpires and how strong it becomes remains to be seen but I think the chances are at least probable (~50-60%) even this early in the game. Just about everything you look for from a dynamical sense is on the table and we're doing everything we need to do to get ourselves there, we just need to see how this evolves through the spring predictability barrier before we can confidently speculate one way or the other.


Do you think today’s z-cell/warm pool seasonality and climatology is analogous to that of the 19th century, though? We have much more off-equator convection after the summer solstice now compared to the 19th century. That seems like a limiting factor to me, when looking back multiple centuries.

I’m not ruling out a weak niño, but I think it could just as easily be warm neutral, at which point we’re probably splitting hairs. I’m not sure a truly “neutral” ENSO state even exists.
  • Webberweather53 likes this
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Warm Season 2018
90+ degree days: 5
Thunderstorm Days: 5
Severe Days: 1
Total rainfall: 1.77”
Highest Gust: 54mph
Warmest High: 94.6*F
Warmest low: 65.5*F

Live Weather Stream

#1271
TT-SEA

Posted 06 February 2018 - 01:59 PM

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We have a new Phil! 

 

I love this discussion.  


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#1272
Phil

Posted 06 February 2018 - 02:14 PM

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We have a new Phil!

I love this discussion.


Haha. Eric is like my doppelgänger, except smarter.
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Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Warm Season 2018
90+ degree days: 5
Thunderstorm Days: 5
Severe Days: 1
Total rainfall: 1.77”
Highest Gust: 54mph
Warmest High: 94.6*F
Warmest low: 65.5*F

Live Weather Stream

#1273
Webberweather53

Posted 06 February 2018 - 02:33 PM

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Do you think today’s z-cell/warm pool seasonality and climatology is analogous to that of the 19th century, though? We have much more off-equator convection after the summer solstice now compared to the 19th century. That seems like a limiting factor to me, when looking back multiple centuries.

I’m not ruling out a weak niño, but I think it could just as easily be warm neutral, at which point we’re probably splitting hairs. I’m not sure a truly “neutral” ENSO state even exists.

 

I was actually about to comment about this, while the climatology and warm pool seasonality is not analogous to the 19th century, the inter annual ENSO behavior of late is less applicable to the modern era, you find a lot more examples of multi-year, strong-super El Ninos followed by modest La Ninas, and a NINO backswing before 1950 in the midst of similar solar activity. I'm actually in favor of a full-blown weak-moderate event (can't really rule out a strong El Nino here either), that's a pretty substantial difference from what you're saying but I really don't feel confident enough yet to completely bite one way or the other. I certainly think this event could pull a head fake but at this stage in the game there's not really a whole lot more I could possibly ask for to get an El Nino next year other than maybe start with a slightly warmer base state. While there's more off-equatorial convection, a lot of this convection is associated w/ the extreme +PMM in the north Pacific that's leftovers from 2015-16 and is likely going to help this event along towards an El Nino if one transpires which seems to become increasingly probable-likely week by week and the warm pool is recovering much more quickly than it used to which also is conducive to NINO growth in general. 


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#1274
Webberweather53

Posted 06 February 2018 - 02:42 PM

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Haha. Eric is like my doppelgänger, except smarter.

 

I feel the exact same way lol it's nice to have someone like you around to bounce ideas off of and discuss the pattern in a way that can be as complex as possible!


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#1275
Phil

Posted 06 February 2018 - 04:03 PM

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I was actually about to comment about this, while the climatology and warm pool seasonality is not analogous to the 19th century, the inter annual ENSO behavior of late is less applicable to the modern era, you find a lot more examples of multi-year, strong-super El Ninos followed by modest La Ninas, and a NINO backswing before 1950 in the midst of similar solar activity.


That’s very interesting. I think I can see why those LIA boundary conditions (contracted cell networks, southward shifted warm pool, -SIOD/-SAM) could allow for faster ENSO rebounds via less NPAC involvement, spatially speaking. Perhaps the Hadley Cell has slowed/expanded enough, relative to the Walker Cell, to return the North Pacific to a 19th century-esque fluid resonance, with less classical/cyclical PDO/NPI feedback.

I'm actually in favor of a full-blown weak-moderate event (can't really rule out a strong El Nino here either), that's a pretty substantial difference from what you're saying but I really don't feel confident enough yet to completely bite one way or the other. I certainly think this event could pull a head fake but at this stage in the game there's not really a whole lot more I could possibly ask for to get an El Nino next year other than maybe start with a slightly warmer base state. While there's more off-equatorial convection, a lot of this convection is associated w/ the extreme +PMM in the north Pacific that's leftovers from 2015-16 and is likely going to help this event along towards an El Nino if one transpires which seems to become increasingly probable-likely week by week and the warm pool is recovering much more quickly than it used to which also is conducive to NINO growth in general.


I agree that, on paper, things look primed for a Niño when extrapolating (climatologically) from our current seasonal and subseasonal boundary conditions.

However, I could easily be wrong, but I think our lower frequency boundary conditions are becoming less favorable for a Niño, and should prevent the ocean/atmosphere coupling necessary to produce anything significant in that regard.

Note the “modern” longitudinal solar/IPWP SSTA cycle between 120E-dateline (dampening w/ time as the solar cycles have weakened) is just off its eastward maximum that culminated w/ the 2015/16 super niño. In a high amplitude cycle like the 1990s, you got the drawdown Niño in 1994/95 (3yrs later), but in the follow-up cycle of lower amplitude, it was 4yrs (2006/07 following 2002/03). So I’m suspecting this isn’t a great point-of-inertia for Niño development, but I guess these things aren’t linear and since this cycle is especially weak in amplitude, who knows exactly what will happen?

sst.month.anom.hov.io.gif
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Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Warm Season 2018
90+ degree days: 5
Thunderstorm Days: 5
Severe Days: 1
Total rainfall: 1.77”
Highest Gust: 54mph
Warmest High: 94.6*F
Warmest low: 65.5*F

Live Weather Stream

#1276
Phil

Posted 06 February 2018 - 04:13 PM

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I feel the exact same way lol it's nice to have someone like you around to bounce ideas off of and discuss the pattern in a way that can be as complex as possible!


Haha, thanks man, and likewise. I’m still impressed with your confident ENSO call for this winter, btw. While I was getting cold feet last spring, you remained steadfast w/ the La Niña idea. Big time kudos to you for that one.

Last spring was an intraseasonal thermocline slosh for the ages. :lol:
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Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Warm Season 2018
90+ degree days: 5
Thunderstorm Days: 5
Severe Days: 1
Total rainfall: 1.77”
Highest Gust: 54mph
Warmest High: 94.6*F
Warmest low: 65.5*F

Live Weather Stream

#1277
Phil

Posted 08 February 2018 - 02:20 PM

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Big shift in late winter boundary conditions this winter compared to last winter.

2018:

IpnrcKo.png


2017:

mdCUUsS.png
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Warm Season 2018
90+ degree days: 5
Thunderstorm Days: 5
Severe Days: 1
Total rainfall: 1.77”
Highest Gust: 54mph
Warmest High: 94.6*F
Warmest low: 65.5*F

Live Weather Stream

#1278
Phil

Posted 08 February 2018 - 02:28 PM

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Globe is much cooler for the month as well, so far, given the cooler WHEM tropics.

2018:

tFcuJUu.png

2017:

u5iufi9.png
  • Black Hole and Geos like this
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Warm Season 2018
90+ degree days: 5
Thunderstorm Days: 5
Severe Days: 1
Total rainfall: 1.77”
Highest Gust: 54mph
Warmest High: 94.6*F
Warmest low: 65.5*F

Live Weather Stream

#1279
snow_wizard

Posted 09 February 2018 - 12:38 AM

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What are peoples thoughts going forwards for 2018/2019? Any early ideas?

I usually wait till after spring to think too much about ENSO because models usually can't forecast well until we get past that point. 

 

With very low solar and still before the minimum a Nino is highly unlikely.


Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2017-18 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.7"

Coldest Low = 19

Lows 32 or below = 51

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows Below 20 = 0

Highs 40 or below = 21

 

 


#1280
happ

Posted 09 February 2018 - 10:47 AM

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"February 2018 La Niña update: tuned in" http://www.climatesi...limate-extremes

 

"Carrying the tune

The atmosphere continues to respond to the cooler-than-average surface waters in the tropical Pacific, showing all the signs of a strengthened Walker Circulation."

 

Does a Walker cell induce upwelling along the West Coast like it does in South America? 



#1281
Phil

Posted 09 February 2018 - 02:12 PM

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With very low solar and still before the minimum a Nino is highly unlikely.


In the short term, I don’t think low solar *by itself* argues for/against any ENSO event. It depends on the boundary conditions present. Also, the *rate-of-change* in solar forcing can also be hugely important.

In fact, over the long term (multidecadal/multicentennial timeframes) low solar actually produces weak SST warming across the South Pacific and South Atlantic, along with a weak/east-based Niño background state, and much colder SSTs across the NPAC/NATL (minus a small blob of warm SSTAs SW of Greenland). Sort of a weird/opposite look compared to today.
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Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Warm Season 2018
90+ degree days: 5
Thunderstorm Days: 5
Severe Days: 1
Total rainfall: 1.77”
Highest Gust: 54mph
Warmest High: 94.6*F
Warmest low: 65.5*F

Live Weather Stream

#1282
wx_statman

Posted 23 February 2018 - 11:56 PM

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Big shift in late winter boundary conditions this winter compared to last winter.

2018:

IpnrcKo.png


2017:

mdCUUsS.png

 

I remember last winter we had that weird coastal El Nino form by February off S. America, bringing a bunch of flooding rains to Peru. The Nina from earlier that winter sure died a quick death. Nice to see an actual Nina signature this time around in February. 


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#1283
snow_wizard

Posted 24 February 2018 - 12:08 AM

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El Niño head fake, then retraction to ENSO neutral for winter 2018/19.

Two downwelling OKWs propagating eastward will start warming the Pacific soon, but -QBO/Indo-Pacific enhancement will destructively interfere and probably prevent an El Niño, IMO.

 

I totally agree.  We have had a lot of summer fake outs in recent years.  It would be pretty much unheard of to have a Nino just before solar min anyway.


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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2017-18 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.7"

Coldest Low = 19

Lows 32 or below = 51

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows Below 20 = 0

Highs 40 or below = 21

 

 


#1284
snow_wizard

Posted 24 February 2018 - 12:09 AM

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In the short term, I don’t think low solar *by itself* argues for/against any ENSO event. It depends on the boundary conditions present. Also, the *rate-of-change* in solar forcing can also be hugely important.

In fact, over the long term (multidecadal/multicentennial timeframes) low solar actually produces weak SST warming across the South Pacific and South Atlantic, along with a weak/east-based Niño background state, and much colder SSTs across the NPAC/NATL (minus a small blob of warm SSTAs SW of Greenland). Sort of a weird/opposite look compared to today.

 

I was just going by past history.


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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2017-18 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.7"

Coldest Low = 19

Lows 32 or below = 51

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows Below 20 = 0

Highs 40 or below = 21

 

 


#1285
Geos

Posted 28 February 2018 - 10:29 AM

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La Nina still going pretty good. Has essentially flat-lined for awhile.

 

nino34.png


Finn Hill, elevation: 460 ft
2018 moisture: 21.70", 05/20

 

2017-2018 winter snowfall total: 9.0", 3/23

Weather station/wx cam: http://map.bloomsky....qBxp6apnJSnqqm2
https://www.wundergr...OTHE144#history


#1286
snow_wizard

Posted 13 March 2018 - 08:04 PM

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It's well within the realm of natural variability for this to happen, the historical record even going back to the mid 19th century is way too short to capture a majority let alone the most of the inter annual variability w/ ENSO especially when your sample size of super El Ninos amounts to just several events w/ highly variable background state. 1877-78 & 2015-16 share a lot more in common with each other than either 1982-83 & 1997-98 imo, and a weak El Nino followed in 1880-81 and its ONI value likely peaked somewhere between +0.60-0.75C. 1891 is the most classical example of a NINO head fake before 1950, but it started out w/ a much colder base state, following in the footsteps of a strong and a weak La Nina in 1889-90, & 1890-91 respectively. A strong El Nino in 1896-97 was followed by a borderline moderate-strong El Nino in 1899-00, a multi-year weak-moderate El Nino in 1904-06 followed on the heels of a strong El Nino in 1902-03 that coincided with the Santa Maria Eruption in 1902. I'm doubtful solar activity will be influential enough to put a damper on a moderate event if it manages to transpire, the forcing out of the gate this year is comparable to the most intense events in the modern era and this weak downwelling wave in the east Pacific has already pre-conditioned the tropical Pacific for the big kelvin wave that's about to emerge. Anything from another La Nina to a borderline moderate-strong El Nino is legitimately possible, but I'm leaning towards an El Nino more so than neutral ENSO or La Nina. Given the profound MJO pulse currently ongoing in the WP before the Vernal Equinox that's comparable to the events that preceded the 1997-98 & 2015-16 super events, and the record +PMM this past January, with approximately two-thirds of all +PMM events in observations and NWP simulations are followed by El Ninos, the magnitude of this +PMM stint may be increasing those odds even further for an El Nino this year. This is showing all the classic early warning signs of an oncoming El Nino, whether or not one actually transpires and how strong it becomes remains to be seen but I think the chances are at least probable (~50-60%) even this early in the game. Just about everything you look for from a dynamical sense is on the table and we're doing everything we need to do to get ourselves there, we just need to see how this evolves through the spring predictability barrier before we can confidently speculate one way or the other.

 

I think this season being just before a major solar minimum will tip the balance and result in a failed El Nino attempt.  The failed attempt last year probably released some extra heat to make a Nino even more unlikely.  2019-20 on the other hand has a good chance of having a Nino IMO.


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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2017-18 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.7"

Coldest Low = 19

Lows 32 or below = 51

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows Below 20 = 0

Highs 40 or below = 21

 

 


#1287
snow_wizard

Posted 13 March 2018 - 08:05 PM

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La Nina still going pretty good. Has essentially flat-lined for awhile.

 

nino34.png

 

No doubt we are going to get the 5 consecutive tri monthly readings of -0.5 or lower to make it official.


Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2017-18 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.7"

Coldest Low = 19

Lows 32 or below = 51

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows Below 20 = 0

Highs 40 or below = 21

 

 


#1288
happ

Posted 13 April 2018 - 09:05 AM

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https://www.climate....t-lurks-beneath

 

Attached Files



#1289
Frontal Snowsquall

Posted 13 April 2018 - 09:19 AM

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The CPC/IRI just updated their ENSO probability forecast. Their thinking a transition to ENSO-neutral during April-May and continuing until the fall when chances are we head into an El Nino, albeit a weak one in winter. A 48% chance of an El Nino by the end of the year compared to 39% chance of ENSO-neutral.

figure1.png

#1290
Phil

Posted 13 April 2018 - 10:26 AM

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Wow, that’s pretty bearish. I’ve seen them pound the niño drum with much less to go on. Smart choice IMO.

Next round of trades starts this weekend with intraseasonal forcing entering the IO/EHEM. How long the wave maintains itself remains to be seen, though really it’s not this orbit, but the two follow-ups (May and June) that I’m watching closely. How the inteaseasonal resonance interacts with the developing monsoonal trough towards the solstice is usually the big revealer, IMO.
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Warm Season 2018
90+ degree days: 5
Thunderstorm Days: 5
Severe Days: 1
Total rainfall: 1.77”
Highest Gust: 54mph
Warmest High: 94.6*F
Warmest low: 65.5*F

Live Weather Stream

#1291
Geos

Posted 17 April 2018 - 09:21 AM

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Still a wide area below normal

 

cdas-sflux_ssta_global_1.png


Finn Hill, elevation: 460 ft
2018 moisture: 21.70", 05/20

 

2017-2018 winter snowfall total: 9.0", 3/23

Weather station/wx cam: http://map.bloomsky....qBxp6apnJSnqqm2
https://www.wundergr...OTHE144#history


#1292
happ

Posted 14 May 2018 - 07:20 AM

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"Goodbye La Nina! A look back at how it affected winter and what's ahead": http://bit.ly/2L0w3ga



#1293
Black Hole

Posted 16 May 2018 - 06:21 AM

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I changed the title to ENSO discussion.


BS Atmospheric Science University of Utah May 2015

PhD Candidate Atmospheric Sciences

 

--Emphasis on: Forecasting, Mountain Weather, Numerical Weather Prediction, Data Assimilation

 

Winter 2017/2018

Dec 4: 3.2", 16: 0.9", 20: 2.1", 23: 1.5", 25: 4.6"

Jan 6: 1.5", 20: 10.8", 25: 1.5"

Feb 19: 8.6", 20: 2.4", 23: 7.1", 25: .5"

Mar 4: 13", 15: 1.8", 17: 5.3", 25: 4.2"

April 12: 1", 17: 1.3"

Total: 69.3"

 

 

Winter 2016/17 Snow:
Nov 17: 3.2", 23: 1.6", 28: 9.2" (14)

Dec 1: .5", 16: 2.5", 25: 13" (16)

Jan 2: 5", 3: 2.4", 4: 7.7", 12: 1", 19: 1.2", 21: 13", 23: 6", 24: 1", 25: 3.7", 26: 2.5" (43.5) 

Feb 11: .5", 23: 6.5", 27: 4.5" (13.5)

Mar 5: 5.5" (5.5)

Apr 8: 2", 9: 1.8" (3.8)

May 17: 1" (1)
Total: 96.3"

Lowest Temp: 2F


#1294
Phil

Posted 16 May 2018 - 10:45 AM

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Still like my idea of a head fake to niño, then a retraction to neutral or warm neutral. The SST warmth should be west-based, with niño-4 possibly running borderline niño conditions through the winter, with niño-3 running neutral, and niño1-2 running cool. The real move to El Niño will start in J/F/M 2019, IMO. Thereafter, a west-based, modoki-style niño follows in winter 2019/20.

The return to a retracted IPWP cycle in 2020 will then mark the initiation of the next phase of moderate to strong west-based Niñas in the early 2020s, along with at least a temporary return to -PDO.
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Warm Season 2018
90+ degree days: 5
Thunderstorm Days: 5
Severe Days: 1
Total rainfall: 1.77”
Highest Gust: 54mph
Warmest High: 94.6*F
Warmest low: 65.5*F

Live Weather Stream

#1295
Phil

Posted 16 May 2018 - 10:55 AM

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Still like my idea of a head fake to niño, then a retraction to neutral or warm neutral. The SST warmth should be west-based, with niño-4 possibly running borderline niño conditions through the winter, with niño-3 running neutral, and niño1-2 running cool. The real move to El Niño will start in J/F/M 2019, IMO. Thereafter, a west-based, modoki-style niño follows in winter 2019/20.

The return to a retracted IPWP cycle in 2020 will then mark the initiation of the next phase of moderate to strong west-based Niñas in the early 2020s, along with at least a temporary return to -PDO.


However, given the weak solar cycle, and resultant dampening of the amplitude of the IPWP cycle, there is a small chance that the niño will wait until 2020/21, or end up being a 2yr niño. Unlikely, but possible.

While this is is highly unlikely to affect the niña/IPWP retraction in the early 2020s, it’s still an intriguing situation in the nearer term. If this year overcomes the odds and goes niño, then the odds of either a multi-year niño or a niño in 2020/21 greatly increase.

Ironically, the easiest forecast is probably 2021/22 thanks to resonant overlap between the IPWP and solar forcing. It will likely be either a 1st or 2nd year Niña, and very likely will be west-based, as well.
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Warm Season 2018
90+ degree days: 5
Thunderstorm Days: 5
Severe Days: 1
Total rainfall: 1.77”
Highest Gust: 54mph
Warmest High: 94.6*F
Warmest low: 65.5*F

Live Weather Stream

#1296
Jesse

Posted 16 May 2018 - 11:01 AM

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However, given the weak solar cycle, and resultant dampening of the amplitude of the IPWP cycle, there is a small chance that the niño will wait until 2020/21, or end up being a 2yr niño. Unlikely, but possible.

While this is is highly unlikely to affect the niña/IPWP retraction in the early 2020s, it’s still an intriguing situation in the nearer term. If this year overcomes the odds and goes niño, then the odds of either a multi-year niño or a niño in 2020/21 greatly increase.

Ironically, the easiest forecast is probably 2021/22 thanks to resonant overlap between the IPWP and solar forcing. It will likely be either a 1st or 2nd year Niña, and very likely will be west-based, as well.


Then after that the ice age starts?
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#1297
Phil

Posted 16 May 2018 - 11:12 AM

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Then after that the ice age starts?


We’re technically in one right now. ;)

As for period of global cooling, it’s already started. It technically began in 2016. Slow cooling will continue until the next west-based niño (marks the westward retraction of the IPWP in resonance w/ external forcing). Then the cooling should accelerate in the early-2020s, probably totaling about 0.2C - 0.3C by 2030. Whether it continues thereafter depends on solar forcing..if we rebound to modern-maximum conditions, then it probably stops, or if activity remains low to average, it may continue.

Your skepticism is understandable and expected.
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Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Warm Season 2018
90+ degree days: 5
Thunderstorm Days: 5
Severe Days: 1
Total rainfall: 1.77”
Highest Gust: 54mph
Warmest High: 94.6*F
Warmest low: 65.5*F

Live Weather Stream

#1298
Jesse

Posted 16 May 2018 - 11:16 AM

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We’re technically in one right now. ;)

As for period of global cooling, it’s already started. It technically began in 2016. Slow cooling will continue until the next west-based niño (marks the westward retraction of the IPWP in resonance w/ external forcing). Then the cooling should accelerate in the early-2020s, probably totaling about 0.2C - 0.3C by 2030. Whether it continues thereafter depends on solar forcing..if we rebound to modern-maximum conditions, then it probably stops, or if activity remains low to average, it may continue.

Your skepticism is understandable and expected.


If I could live through even a watered down version of the 1948-57 circulation I would die happy.
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#1299
Front Ranger

Posted 16 May 2018 - 11:41 AM

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If I could live through even a watered down version of the 1948-57 circulation I would die happy.


The interesting thing about that period compared to now is that we have much lower solar activity today. There was something else driving the deep -PDO/-ENSO circulation then.

Cool anomalies soothe the soul.


#1300
Phil

Posted 16 May 2018 - 11:52 AM

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If I could live through even a watered down version of the 1948-57 circulation I would die happy.


Well, good news is the 1939-1946 period is easily the best structural climate analog to 2013-2018. So who knows, we might be heading that way.

At the very least, those 2-3 years during the early 2020s will probably hold some level of resemblance to classical niña/-PDO eras. That doesn’t always mean we will have blocking/-NAM (1974-76 and 1998-01 are two examples less-blocky IPWP retractions), however they do cool the atmosphere, and produce -PNAs/SE-ridging.
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Warm Season 2018
90+ degree days: 5
Thunderstorm Days: 5
Severe Days: 1
Total rainfall: 1.77”
Highest Gust: 54mph
Warmest High: 94.6*F
Warmest low: 65.5*F

Live Weather Stream