ENSO Discussion

[Phil]

At the same time, 5/1 - 7/31 was pretty darn close to average west of the Cascades. Within a degree or so.

 

The big heat waited until August and September, which was no surprise to me.

[Front Ranger]

Yeah, pretty much average west of the Cascades, warm/hot along/east of the Cascades.

 

 

Every single major I-5 station (BLI, SEA, Seattle WFO, OLM, PDX, SLE, EUG) was above normal in July.

 

It was the coolest month of a warm summer, but it was still a warm month. Looking at the PNW overall, it was obviously considerably warmer for parts of the region a bit further east...and that kind of detail is impossible to forecast long range.

[Phil]

Every single major I-5 station (BLI, SEA, Seattle WFO, OLM, PDX, SLE, EUG) was above normal in July.

They finished very close to average, though. Several stations finished below average, actually.

 

So my statement is correct.

 

[Phil]

[Front Ranger]

They finished close to average, though. Several stations finished below average, actually.

 

So my statement is correct.

 

A lot more above normal stations than below normal throughout the PNW.

 

Smaller variances aside, July fit into the large scale dominant pattern that persisted from mid May to mid September.

[Phil]

A lot more above normal stations than below normal throughout the PNW.

Okay, but it was very close to average on the westside. Actually below average in some coastal areas.

 

So again, my original statement was accurate.

 

Smaller variances aside, July fit into the large scale dominant pattern that persisted from mid May to mid September.

Did I suggest otherwise?

[wx_statman]

Actually the exact opposite. The -QBO cycled in much faster than expected, which tightened the Walker Cell faster, but didn't provide enough time for the WPAC to cool/ventilate through evaporative feedback once the warm waters left the EPAC. So we were left with a huge WPAC Hadley Cell, and a residual +SIOD/+IOD (enhanced W-IO convection), under a -QBO base state, which is more reflective of an extremely west-based El Niño, if anything.

 

It wasn't until sometime in April that I saw what was happening, and even then I thought the warmth would wait until August. The majority of the heat did hold off until August, however it was such a rapid transition that it caught me napping with regards to the evolution of the June/July wavetrain.

 

This was actually the fastest -QBO frontal cycle since 1960.

 

I wonder if the QBO is still feeling the shakeup from 2015-16? 

 

http://www.sciencejournalforkids.org/uploads/5/4/2/8/54289603/newman_et_al-2016-geophysical_research_letters.pdf

[Phil]

I wonder if the QBO is still feeling the shakeup from 2015-16?

 

http://www.sciencejournalforkids.org/uploads/5/4/2/8/54289603/newman_et_al-2016-geophysical_research_letters.pdf

Interesting take. I wonder.

 

As far as I know, it's still debatable as to why the QBO skipped a beat last summer. There are a number of competing theories, but very few answers so far. It was definitely an anomalous event though, going back (at least) to the 1950s.

 

http://www.geo.fu-berlin.de/met/ag/strat/produkte/qbo/qbo_wind_pdf.pdf

[Front Ranger]

Okay, but it was very close to average on the westside. Actually below average in some coastal areas.

 

So again, my original statement was accurate.

 

 

Did I suggest otherwise?

Well, why are you trying to prove it was a near average month in some places? It was clearly above normal overall for the region, the large scale pattern was quite similar to the rest of the summer, so I guess I don't understand what your point is.

[Phil]

Well, why are you trying to prove it was a near average month in some places? It was clearly above normal overall for the region, the large scale pattern was quite similar to the rest of the summer, so I guess I don't understand what your point is.

Huh? I was responding to Tim, and his analysis of the month being "nice" west of the Cascades. So, to supplement his analysis, I pointed out the fact it was an average to cooler than average month near the coast, with plenty of diurnal variability.

 

Everything I stated was factual. So, why you decided to argue and take the conversation out of context, I'm not sure.

[Front Ranger]

Huh? I was responding to Tim, and his analysis of the month being "nice" west of the Cascades. So, to supplement his analysis, I pointed out the fact it was an average to cooler than average month near the coast, with plenty of diurnal variability.

 

Everything I stated was factual. So, why you decided to argue and take the conversation out of context, I'm not sure.

 

Everything I stated was factual as well. Wasn't arguing with you, was simply providing broader context. 

 

You had previously tried to argue that July wasn't really above normal in the PNW due to some cooler areas near the coast, so it seemed you were going that direction again.

[Phil]

Omg. Whatever dude. I digress.

[TT-SEA]

Warming continues... big changes in the ENSO region.  Does not even look much like a Nina now.  

 

Last 7 days...

 

 

 

[ShawniganLake]

Warming continues... big changes in the ENSO region. Does not even look much like a Nina now.

 

Last 7 days...

 

 

 

I would bet the CFS is being way to aggressive with its moderate/strong Nina forecast.

[Phil]

IMO, it's important to keep in mind that this warming is only intraseasonal, and that cooling will resume sometime next week as convection enters the maritime domain.

 

Still, this definitely doesn't look like a healthy La Niña right now..the fact that a modest MJO wave can almost completely mask the background state speaks to that fact.

[snow_wizard]

IMO, it's important to keep in mind that this warming is only intraseasonal, and that cooling will resume sometime next week as convection enters the maritime domain.

 

Still, this definitely doesn't look like a healthy La Niña right now..the fact that a modest MJO wave can almost completely mask the background state speaks to that fact.

 

This behavior could end up being good news for us.

[Phil]

This behavior could end up being good news for us.

I agree. Stronger Niñas under -QBO tend to be zonal/+EPO dominated, like 2007/08 and 1998/99.

 

Most of the cold/blocky -ENSO/-QBO winters had trimonthly ONIs between -0.5 and -1.0.

[Geos]

Looks like some upwelling/cooling of waters along the CA, OR and WA coast the last 7 days. 

 

[Phil]

IMO, it's important to keep in mind that this warming is only intraseasonal, and that cooling will resume sometime next week as convection enters the maritime domain.

Here comes the next round of trades:

 

http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/ventrice/real_time/timeLon/u.anom.30.5S-5N.gif

[snow_wizard]

Here comes the next round of trades:

 

 

Very robust it would appear.

[Geos]

Cooling off again.

 

 

 

Especially in the eastern equatorial Pacific.

 

[Phil]

Global SST anomaly is finally coming down as well. That's mostly QBO driven at this point through enhanced equatorward trades over the WPAC warm pool (evaporative feedback), though I guess that's technically a component of the ENSO system as well, so they're kind of two branches of the same tree in this case.

 

[Phil]

The fact we're seeing this SSTA cooling during a +NAM speaks to the outrageous SST warmth following that double +QBO and super niño. It's just not sustainable anymore with the -QBO and 0.67W/m^2 decline in surface-averaged solar radiation (since 2014). The OLWR anomaly has been through the roof since 2014/15, almost 2SD's above the 1990-2010 mean close to 1.7W/m^2 above the baseline according to CERES). So we've radiated a lot of heat into space during recent years.

 

If we have a -NAM winter, there's going to be quite a significant SSTA drop in the tropics, given -NAM --> strong tropical convection.

[seattleweatherguy]

The fact we're seeing this SSTA cooling during a +NAM speaks to the outrageous SST warmth following that double +QBO and super niño. It's just not sustainable anymore with the -QBO and 0.67W/m^2 decline in surface-averaged solar radiation (since 2014). The OLWR anomaly has been through the roof since 2014/15, almost 2SD's above the 1990-2010 mean close to 1.7W/m^2 above the baseline according to CERES). So we've radiated a lot of heat into space during recent years.

 

If we have a -NAM winter, there's going to be quite a significant SSTA drop in the tropics, given -NAM --> strong tropical convection.

Is any of that good for the pnw?

[Phil]

Is any of that good for the pnw?

Yes, it's good news in that the IPWP/WPAC warm pool will be retracting over the next several years, and with it, so will the annular modes (AO/AAO) and global temperature anomaly.

 

Longer term (decadal or sub-decadal) NAM regimes tend to terminate abruptly (usually over a period of one year), so it could be the NAM goes negative following a SSW event either this winter or next, and we don't look back for several years.

 

The global temperature decline looks to continue at the same modest/steady pace observed over the last 13 months, until a sharper drop in the early 2020s (after the Niño of 2019/20). This drop looks structurally analogous to the upward step-change following the 1997/98 super Niño, just inverted (obviously).

 

Or, at least this is my opinion. Whether it holds true remains to be seen. If/when Agung erupts, it could affect the ENSO progression somewhat.

[TT-SEA]

Nina region cooling again as Phil expected...

 

[DareDuck]

Also nice to see the NE PAC cooling off too.

[Front Ranger]

PDO-dropping there for sure, too.

[Geos]

Also nice to see the NE PAC cooling off too.

 

Let's put that region in the freezer! 

[Phil]

Behemoth trade wind bust upcoming with this MJO wave.

 

http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/ventrice/real_time/timeLon/u.anom.30.5S-5N.gif

[TT-SEA]

Behemoth trade wind bust upcoming with this MJO wave.

 

 

What does that mean?

[ShawniganLake]

What does that mean?

Cooling near the equator

[snow_wizard]

That trade wind burst that is about to commence looks EPIC.

[crf450ish]

http://i.imgur.com/LmDAaDo.jpg

[Geos]

NE Pacific continues to cool...

 

 

[Front Ranger]

Looks like the September PDO number popped back up to +.32. Not too surprising, considering the pattern the first half of the month. 

 

However, big changes this month...I'm sure the PDO is currently in negative territory, we'll see if it maintains that way long enough to produce the first -PDO month since 2013.

[Phil]

The daily PDO number is well negative. Looks to average negative for the month of October unless the +PNA later in the month is enough to promote subsurface reemergence of the +PDO signature.

[snow_wizard]

Niña Schmeeña:  Downtown L.A. is already averaging a +3.6 departure for the month.  With the epic heatwave forecast for next week, it seems likely that a new warmest October monthly average record will be set -- just 2 years after the current record was set during a raging Niño.

 

Yuck.  That is really surprising considering how cool it's been up here.  Very tight N to S anomaly gradient.  That could bode well for some big rains in CA this winter.

[Phil]

This MJO wave looks strong enough to force a WWB, perhaps as soon as the last week of the month.

 

Question is, will the WWB be strong enough to force an oceanic Kelvin Wave?

[westcoastexpat]

It is being remembered as a warm summer... but July was almost normal and one of the most perfect summer month possible around here.  

 

July was absolute perfection. Cloudless, mild, sea breeze, beer... heaven

 

Then August hit and I wanted to die.