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snow_wizard

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Looks like we have a robust Nina and a negative PDO now.  It took a long time for the North Pacific to finally reconfigure.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Looks like we have a robust Nina and a negative PDO now.  It took a long time for the North Pacific to finally reconfigure.

 

Looking good, just a waiting game for our first blast in the coming weeks. I hear Nov week 2 is looking like the first possibility?

Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

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Should be a WWB/ENSO warming later this week thanks to the eastward propagation of the MJO.

 

Looks like a classic two steps forward one step back regime on the Nina this season.  Plenty of room for it to warm after the big drop in the past week.

  • Like 1

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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  • 2 weeks later...

Looks like that WWB might have indeed triggered a modest downwelling oceanic KW. Trades are resuming now, however that might not be enough to prevent some degree of subsurface warming over the next month or so.

 

Either way, I highly doubt the OKW is potent enough to weaken the Niña in any substantial manner. Probably just took ~ 0.1C off the peak ONI amplitude.

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This looks scary.

 

Ryan Maue

 

That's only for 10 days out.  December will have something good.

Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

Venmo

GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope

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The 3.4 region dropped from -.4 to -1.1, a drop of -7, which is the largest one week drop since 1990.

 

The atmospheric configuration over the Pacific has been similar to 1990 in a lot of ways for a while now.

  • Like 1

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Negative subsurface temperature anomalies continue to persist. Over the past 3-4 weeks Equatorial SST's indicate we're still mainly in an eastern and central based Niña. I predict a 35-45% chance cooling expands westward into Niño 4 region.

 

Oceanic Niño Index (ONI): August-September-October(ASO) -0.4ºC.

Last Fall the Tri-Monthly ONI for ASO was -0.7ºC and peaked late October to mid-November holding at that value through mid-December. It appears this Niña will peak late December to late January. I would think it may favor a more blocky pattern over the North Pacific centered 155-165 W.

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Negative subsurface temperature anomalies continue to persist. Over the past 3-4 weeks Equatorial SST's indicate we're still mainly in an eastern and central based Niña. I predict a 35-45% chance cooling expands westward into Niño 4 region.

 

Oceanic Niño Index (ONI): August-September-October(ASO) -0.4ºC.

Last Fall the Tri-Monthly ONI for ASO was -0.7ºC and peaked late October to mid-November holding at that value through mid-December. It appears this Niña will peak late December to late January. I would think it may favor a more blocky pattern over the North Pacific centered 155-165 W.

I agree.  Everyone seems to be saying this is strictly a West based Nina, but it looks like it is starting to become a more basin wide Nina, even if the strongest anomalies are East based.

 

Region 4 down to -.81 and dropping like a rock, 3.4 is down to -.85, and 1+2 looks like it is holding steady and not dropping.  

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I agree. Everyone seems to be saying this is strictly a West based Nina, but it looks like it is starting to become a more basin wide Nina, even if the strongest anomalies are East based.

 

Region 4 down to -.81 and dropping like a rock, 3.4 is down to -.85, and 1+2 looks like it is holding steady and not dropping.

Still very east-based, despite the temporary SSTA cooling in the western areas. It's all about the orientation of the Walker/Hadley cells which, along with SSTAs/ocean circulations, have low frequency biases.

 

The long period circulation state is still quite east-based, and this will reflect more in the ENSO SSTs by early December.

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And to sum it up; climate change 101

 

Yup...we've never seen climate change until now.  Amazing how Seattle went from being under 2000 feet of ice to what we see now with no help from mankind whatsoever.  All of this stuff like you posted is incredibly short sighted when compared to the past several hundred thousand years which have had literally apocalyptic climate changes.  What we are seeing now is nothing.  It's been proven by ice core samples the last interglacial was warmer than the current one.  Nice try though!

  • Like 1

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Yup...we've never seen climate change until now. Amazing how Seattle went from being under 2000 feet of ice to what we see now with no help from mankind whatsoever. All of this stuff like you posted is incredibly short sighted when compared to the past several hundred thousand years which have had literally apocalyptic climate changes. What we are seeing now is nothing. It's been proven by ice core samples the last interglacial was warmer than the current one. Nice try though!

There's nothing scientifically wrong with his post, IMO. He's not implying that humanity is responsible for all of the warming since the end of the LIA.

 

Even the IPCC admits almost all of the global warming observed between 1700 and 1950 was naturally forced. Our contributions to the warming start after 1950, for the most part.

 

And yeah, the current global temperature pretty much average for the last 12,300 years (Holocene). Sea level peaked several meters higher than today during the middle Holocene climate optimum, around 5000 years ago.

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There's nothing scientifically wrong with his post, IMO. He's not implying that humanity is responsible for all of the warming since the end of the LIA.

 

Even the IPCC admits almost all of the global warming observed between 1700 and 1950 was naturally forced. Our contributions to the warming start after 1950, for the most part.

 

And yeah, the current global temperature pretty much average for the last 12,300 years (Holocene). Sea level peaked several meters higher than today during the middle Holocene climate optimum, around 5000 years ago.

 

True.  I probably jumped on his post a little too hard.

 

Is there hard evidence sea level was higher 5000 years ago than now?  If so that really hurts the narrative from the global warming advocates.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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True. I probably humped on his post a little too hard.

 

Is there hard evidence sea level was higher 5000 years ago than now? If so that really hurts the narrative from the global warming advocates.

Yeah, the middle Holocene sea level highstand is common knowledge at this point. Estimates vary, but sea levels in the middle Holocene are generally agreed to have been anywhere from 1-3 meters higher than today.

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Still very east-based, despite the temporary SSTA cooling in the western areas. It's all about the orientation of the Walker/Hadley cells which, along with SSTAs/ocean circulations, have low frequency biases.

 

The long period circulation state is still quite east-based, and this will reflect more in the ENSO SSTs by early December.

East-based flavor to the SSTAs has returned, following the recent excursion.

 

cdas-sflux_ssta_global_1.png

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Is 1995-96 a good analog for this year? That year has had several things in common with this year so far and they include the following: 1. Active Atlantic hurricane season with one more named storm than this year 2. Easterly (negative) QBO, 3. Weak La Nina, 4. Dry fall so far for Socal, and 5. A very mild and inactive weather pattern in Socal for November.

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Is 1995-96 a good analog for this year? That year has had several things in common with this year so far and they include the following: 1. Active Atlantic hurricane season with one more named storm than this year 2. Easterly (negative) QBO, 3. Weak La Nina, 4. Dry fall so far for Socal, and 5. A very mild and inactive weather pattern in Socal for November.

One of the best analogs to this point, imo. The large scale pattern has been a good match as well.

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A forum for the end of the world.

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Is 1995-96 a good analog for this year? That year has had several things in common with this year so far and they include the following: 1. Active Atlantic hurricane season with one more named storm than this year 2. Easterly (negative) QBO, 3. Weak La Nina, 4. Dry fall so far for Socal, and 5. A very mild and inactive weather pattern in Socal for November.

 

Rain year [jul-jun] ended up w/ slightly over 15 inches here. Nov 1995 was hot w/ 15 days over 80° & only 0.08 rainfall. Dec was over an inch. Jan thru March had some good storms w/ over 6 inches in Feb. I could live with a repeat.

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Rain year [jul-jun] ended up w/ slightly over 15 inches here. Nov 1995 was hot w/ 15 days over 80° & only 0.08 rainfall. Dec was over an inch. Jan thru March had some good storms w/ over 6 inches in Feb. I could live with a repeat.

95-96 was lame down here. We had one really cold period in late Jan/early Feb that was a dry cold and then the huge atmospheric river for 4 days that melted all the mountain snow and flooded everything.

Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

Venmo

GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope

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95-96 was lame down here. We had one really cold period in late Jan/early Feb that was a dry cold and then the huge atmospheric river for 4 days that melted all the mountain snow and flooded everything.

 

It was really good from Portland northward.  About 3 weeks of cold and snow either falling on many days and / or on the ground mid Jan through early Feb.  I seem to recall pictures of ice on the Willamette from that winter.  Good sized lakes around here froze over also.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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It was really good from Portland northward. About 3 weeks of cold and snow either falling on many days and / or on the ground mid Jan through early Feb. I seem to recall pictures of ice on the Willamette from that winter. Good sized lakes around here froze over also.

No doubt we had a blast and south of Monmouth down to Eugene had one snow event from a system heading into southern Oregon and NorCal but the deformation bands didn't make it much north of Corvallis.

Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

Venmo

GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope

24

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95-96 was lame down here. We had one really cold period in late Jan/early Feb that was a dry cold and then the huge atmospheric river for 4 days that melted all the mountain snow and flooded everything.

Late January/early Feb 1996 was arguably one of the most signicant arctic events of the last 25 years up here. We have yet to do better this century IMO. I can still remember seeing ice floes on the Columbia from the 205 bridge.

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Late January/early Feb 1996 was arguably one of the most signicant arctic events of the last 25 years up here. We have yet to do better this century IMO. I can still remember seeing ice floes on the Columbia from the 205 bridge.

 

That was a classic gorge blast. The basin was incredibly cold and those east winds were howling! Places away from the gorge were cold, but not nearly as impressively as PDX. 

 

In the January 29-Feb 3 period PDX averaged 27.8/16.8 whereas 45 miles south and away from the gorge SLE was a less impressive 34/18.3.

 

For the Willamette Valley Dec 98', Dec 08, Dec 09', Dec 13' were more impressive. And Jan 04', Jan 07', and even Jan 17' were close. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Late January/early Feb 1996 was arguably one of the most signicant arctic events of the last 25 years up here. We have yet to do better this century IMO. I can still remember seeing ice floes on the Columbia from the 205 bridge.

I have news coverage of this event as well...I really need to dig out my old VCR stuffed behind the Christmas boxes shoved in the storage area under our stairs. That was a wonderful event!

Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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That was a classic gorge blast. The basin was incredibly cold and those east winds were howling! Places away from the gorge were cold, but not nearly as impressively as PDX. 

 

In the January 29-Feb 3 period PDX averaged 27.8/16.8 whereas 45 miles south and away from the gorge SLE was a less impressive 34/18.3.

 

For the Willamette Valley Dec 98', Dec 08, Dec 09', Dec 13' were more impressive. And Jan 04', Jan 07', and even Jan 17' were close. 

 

Agreed. Jan/Feb 1996 was definitely a regional Arctic outbreak, but for the western lowlands overall, definitely not top tier or better than many of those other blasts you mentioned.

 

For example, OLM only saw two sub-freezing highs and no single digit lows with that.

A forum for the end of the world.

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Agreed. Jan/Feb 1996 was definitely a regional Arctic outbreak, but for the western lowlands overall, definitely not top tier or better than many of those other blasts you mentioned.

 

For example, OLM only saw two sub-freezing highs and no single digit lows with that.

If I remember correctly we had about a foot of snow going into it and remained below freezing for the most part up here for about a week...but its very hazy now.

Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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