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ENSO Discussion

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#1301
Phil

Posted 16 May 2018 - 12:07 PM

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The interesting thing about that period compared to now is that we have much lower solar activity today. There was something else driving the deep -PDO/-ENSO circulation then.


Ironically, it was probably a response to the increase in solar activity in the 1940s, which warmed the WPAC and strengthened the Walker Cell, since the climate system was still recovering from the LIA and had plenty of warming left to do. Amazing how non-linear these things can be.
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Warm Season 2018
90+ degree days: 5
Thunderstorm Days: 5
Severe Days: 1
Total rainfall: 1.77”
Highest Gust: 54mph
Warmest High: 94.6*F
Warmest low: 65.5*F

Live Weather Stream

#1302
Phil

Posted 16 May 2018 - 12:17 PM

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- Prolonged periods of high solar favor strong, single-yr niños and multi-yr niñas.

- Prolonged periods of low solar favor weak, multi-yr niños and single-yr niñas.

- Niña/-PDO is a regime of ocean heat uptake, which cools the atmosphere, while Niño/+PDO is a regime of ocean heat release, which warms the atmosphere.

- Short term/decadal effects of Niño/+PDO are a warmer atmosphere/upper ocean, but the long term effects are to release heat/cool the ocean/atmosphere system,

- Short term/decadal effects of Niña/-PDO are a cooler atmosphere/upper ocean, but the long term effects are to absorb heat/warm the ocean atmosphere system.

- This is why the MWP, and the majority of the middle Holocene, was dominated by -ENSO/-PDO, and it’s why the LIA, and the majority of the neoglacial late Holocene was dominated by +ENSO/+PDO.
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Warm Season 2018
90+ degree days: 5
Thunderstorm Days: 5
Severe Days: 1
Total rainfall: 1.77”
Highest Gust: 54mph
Warmest High: 94.6*F
Warmest low: 65.5*F

Live Weather Stream

#1303
Mr Marine Layer

Posted 17 May 2018 - 04:52 PM

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Still a wide area below normal
 
cdas-sflux_ssta_global_1.png

Disagreement among the two maps.

http://www.ospo.noaa...p.5.17.2018.gif

#1304
Phil

Posted 17 May 2018 - 05:29 PM

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Disagreement among the two maps.

http://www.ospo.noaa...p.5.17.2018.gif


They use different climatology periods.
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Warm Season 2018
90+ degree days: 5
Thunderstorm Days: 5
Severe Days: 1
Total rainfall: 1.77”
Highest Gust: 54mph
Warmest High: 94.6*F
Warmest low: 65.5*F

Live Weather Stream

#1305
TT-SEA

Posted 17 May 2018 - 05:49 PM

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Disagreement among the two maps.

http://www.ospo.noaa...p.5.17.2018.gif


He posted that a month ago... it must be a live link that is updating because the map is from today connected to a post from April 17th.

#1306
Mr Marine Layer

Posted 17 May 2018 - 07:28 PM

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He posted that a month ago... it must be a live link that is updating because the map is from today connected to a post from April 17th.

 

The one I posted is from today.



#1307
OKwx2k4

Posted 17 May 2018 - 10:47 PM

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They use different climatology periods.


Which climatology does NOAA use?

#1308
Phil

Posted 18 May 2018 - 07:21 AM

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Which climatology does NOAA use?


You mean the NOAA-OSPO/NESDIS dataset?

I believe it uses a 1985-1993 climatology period, which is much shorter/colder than the 1981-2010 climatology period utilized by OISST/CDAS.

Which is why I’ve grown less fond of OSPO/NESDIS in recent years, spatially speaking. The climatology period is no bueno..that era was all +PDO/-AMO..so that type of SSTA configuration today will not be well-represented.
  • OKwx2k4 likes this
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Warm Season 2018
90+ degree days: 5
Thunderstorm Days: 5
Severe Days: 1
Total rainfall: 1.77”
Highest Gust: 54mph
Warmest High: 94.6*F
Warmest low: 65.5*F

Live Weather Stream

#1309
OKwx2k4

Posted 18 May 2018 - 10:17 AM

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You mean the NOAA-OSPO/NESDIS dataset?

I believe it uses a 1985-1993 climatology period, which is much shorter/colder than the 1981-2010 climatology period utilized by OISST/CDAS.

Which is why I’ve grown less fond of OSPO/NESDIS in recent years, spatially speaking. The climatology period is no bueno..that era was all +PDO/-AMO..so that type of SSTA configuration today will not be well-represented.


Yeah. Whatever alphabet soup name they want to call it. Lol. That's what I was referring to.

They just happened to pick the coldest background state they could find. Unreal sometimes what horse manure they shovel out as science these days.
  • LNK_Weather likes this