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ENSO Discussion

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#1401
Webberweather53

Posted 30 July 2018 - 08:32 AM

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Why do you want a niño so bad?

 

What are you talking about, I'm just stating facts here, there's no need to get defensive or up in arms over NINO posts.



#1402
Jesse

Posted 30 July 2018 - 08:38 AM

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What are you talking about, I'm just stating facts here, there's no need to get defensive or up in arms over NINO posts.


It was a serious question. I thought maybe you lived in an area where niño climo favors more active winter wx.

#1403
Geos

Posted 30 July 2018 - 08:42 AM

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Some pockets of warmer water, but nothing crazy yet.

 

cdas-sflux_ssta_global_1.png

 

Nice cold pocket off the West Coast now.


Finn Hill, elevation: 460 ft
2018 moisture: 24.41", 08/04

 

2017-2018 winter snowfall total: 9.0", 3/23

Weather station/wx cam: http://map.bloomsky....qBxp6apnJSnqqm2
https://www.wundergr...OTHE144#history


#1404
Webberweather53

Posted 30 July 2018 - 08:43 AM

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It was a serious question. I thought maybe you lived in an area where niño climo favors more active winter wx.

 

I live in the southeastern US so winters here can be more active but I really don't care because NINO winters usually feature huge gradients in snowfall over central and western NC that screws over my particular area relative to climo favored areas to my NW. I talked about a double NINA about a year and a half ago while most were still convinced a NINO was coming in 2017, so I'm pretty unbiased.


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#1405
Phil

Posted 30 July 2018 - 09:04 AM

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Why do you want a niño so bad?


I don’t think he “wants” a niño. He’s simply seeing a signal for one, and is sticking to his guns on the idea. Very respectable IMO and it’s something I wish more meteorologists would do, instead of waffling with every run of the CFSv2.

We have too many model-ologists out there already.
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Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Warm Season 2018
90+ degree days: 5
Thunderstorm Days: 5
Severe Days: 1
Total rainfall: 1.77”
Highest Gust: 54mph
Warmest High: 94.6*F
Warmest low: 65.5*F

Live Weather Stream

#1406
Esquimalt

Posted 31 July 2018 - 11:32 AM

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What do you think the winter holds for the PNW if it does go weak El Nino?  What do analogs tell us?  



#1407
Webberweather53

Posted 07 August 2018 - 06:20 AM

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Now that's the kind of WWB this El Nino event needs.

 

u.anom.30.5S-5N.gif



#1408
iFred

Posted 07 August 2018 - 08:34 AM

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What do you think the winter holds for the PNW if it does go weak El Nino?  What do analogs tell us?  

 

Weak ENSO's mean variability with storms, dry air, snow events, etc. IIRC, 2006-07 was a weak Nina.



#1409
TT-SEA

Posted 07 August 2018 - 08:36 AM

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Now that's the kind of WWB this El Nino event needs.

 

u.anom.30.5S-5N.gif

 

 

So its about to get stronger?   



#1410
Phil

Posted 07 August 2018 - 09:32 AM

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So its about to get stronger?


If it continues, then yes. I still think the periodicity of the intraseasonals is on the high side (hence the very slow establishment of a low frequency component..more-so than any of the modern niños I can find).

So I’m stubbornly hugging the idea of the slow walk into the 2019/20 niño with this being more of an onset year than a climax year. I’m not sure it will meet the CPC’s ONI criteria until at least JFM.

I thought we might head-fake into niño conditions in A/S/O this year, but so far it’s run a bit cooler than I thought.
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Warm Season 2018
90+ degree days: 5
Thunderstorm Days: 5
Severe Days: 1
Total rainfall: 1.77”
Highest Gust: 54mph
Warmest High: 94.6*F
Warmest low: 65.5*F

Live Weather Stream

#1411
Front Ranger

Posted 07 August 2018 - 10:43 AM

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If it continues, then yes. I still think the periodicity of the intraseasonals is on the high side (hence the very slow establishment of a low frequency component..more-so than any of the modern niños I can find).

So I’m stubbornly hugging the idea of the slow walk into the 2019/20 niño with this being more of an onset year than a climax year. I’m not sure it will meet the CPC’s ONI criteria until at least JFM.

I thought we might head-fake into niño conditions in A/S/O this year, but so far it’s run a bit cooler than I thought.


So now you're hedging towards an actual Nino. Head faked the head fake.

Smart man.

Cool anomalies soothe the soul.


#1412
Phil

Posted 07 August 2018 - 11:54 AM

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So now you're hedging towards an actual Nino. Head faked the head fake.

Smart man.


What? Nothing’s changed.

I’ve been calling for the inception of a niño in 2019/20 for several years now, based on solar cycle/IPWP resonance(s) thru extratropical conduits.

And a multi-year niña in the early 2020s as well (centered in 2021 and 2022).
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Warm Season 2018
90+ degree days: 5
Thunderstorm Days: 5
Severe Days: 1
Total rainfall: 1.77”
Highest Gust: 54mph
Warmest High: 94.6*F
Warmest low: 65.5*F

Live Weather Stream

#1413
weatherfan2012

Posted 07 August 2018 - 12:06 PM

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Weak ENSO's mean variability with storms, dry air, snow events, etc. IIRC, 2006-07 was a weak Nina.

2006-2007 was actually an El nino I remember that winter well here in the eastern seaboard it started off very warm December first hafe of January then the bottom fell out and february was very cold with the all out sleet ice storm Valentine's day 2007.the next winter was when we went into a moderate to strong nina which was 2007-2008.

#1414
Front Ranger

Posted 07 August 2018 - 12:06 PM

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Just so there’s no misunderstanding, I’m not expecting a collapse to cold neutral like 2012/13.

I think we’ll see the weak niño head fake during the second half of summer into early autumn (in terms of ONI) with a return to neutral or warm neutral during the late autumn and winter.

 

;)


Cool anomalies soothe the soul.


#1415
Phil

Posted 07 August 2018 - 12:10 PM

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;)


Yes, exactly. How is that any different than what I’m calling for now?

Maybe you should read more carefully next time.
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Warm Season 2018
90+ degree days: 5
Thunderstorm Days: 5
Severe Days: 1
Total rainfall: 1.77”
Highest Gust: 54mph
Warmest High: 94.6*F
Warmest low: 65.5*F

Live Weather Stream

#1416
Phil

Posted 07 August 2018 - 12:17 PM

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For the record, Flatiron conveniently left out my follow-up post elaborating on my prediction of the evolution of this event.

I agree re: 2019/20. Will be interesting to watch unfold.

In the end, we’re really only 6 months apart here..my guess is the move to Niño begins JFM 2019 following an early-season SSW/MJO event around Christmas, you seem to think it will establish during ASO of this year. That’s really not very different in the grand scheme of things. 🤓


Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Warm Season 2018
90+ degree days: 5
Thunderstorm Days: 5
Severe Days: 1
Total rainfall: 1.77”
Highest Gust: 54mph
Warmest High: 94.6*F
Warmest low: 65.5*F

Live Weather Stream

#1417
Front Ranger

Posted 07 August 2018 - 12:41 PM

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For the record, Flatiron conveniently left out my follow-up post elaborating on my prediction of the evolution of this event.
 

 

It just seems that you've gradually moved more towards the eventual Nino camp over the last few months. At some points I swear you said you didn't think we'd see a true Nino in 2019-20. But I haven't closely followed every post in this thread.


Cool anomalies soothe the soul.


#1418
Phil

Posted 07 August 2018 - 12:46 PM

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It just seems that you've gradually moved more towards the eventual Nino camp over the last few months. At some points I swear you said you didn't think we'd see a true Nino in 2019-20. But I haven't closely followed every post in this thread.


You must have me confused with someone else.

If my outlook was changing, I’d make that be known, and explain my reasoning. No point in clinging to a sinking ship.
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Warm Season 2018
90+ degree days: 5
Thunderstorm Days: 5
Severe Days: 1
Total rainfall: 1.77”
Highest Gust: 54mph
Warmest High: 94.6*F
Warmest low: 65.5*F

Live Weather Stream

#1419
seattleweatherguy

Posted 08 August 2018 - 10:06 PM

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I'm betting on a warm neutral with a few snows mixed in

#1420
Webberweather53

Posted 09 August 2018 - 05:34 AM

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Another neat NWP experiment came out in nature recently, finding some of what we already know in that cross-equatorial wind behavior in the Pacific favors a NINA base state and reduces ENSO amplitude in the model, and SSTAs shift westward.

https://www.nature.c...1558-018-0248-0


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#1421
Phil

Posted 09 August 2018 - 11:21 AM

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Another neat NWP experiment came out in nature recently, finding some of what we already know in that cross-equatorial wind behavior in the Pacific favors a NINA base state and reduces ENSO amplitude in the model, and SSTAs shift westward.
https://www.nature.c...1558-018-0248-0


That was a fascinating read! Thanks for this.
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Warm Season 2018
90+ degree days: 5
Thunderstorm Days: 5
Severe Days: 1
Total rainfall: 1.77”
Highest Gust: 54mph
Warmest High: 94.6*F
Warmest low: 65.5*F

Live Weather Stream

#1422
MossMan

Posted 09 August 2018 - 04:53 PM

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Weak ENSO's mean variability with storms, dry air, snow events, etc. IIRC, 2006-07 was a weak Nina.

I would love a repeat of 06/07, what a fun active winter that was!!

#1423
Phil

Posted 09 August 2018 - 06:42 PM

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2006-2007 was actually an El nino I remember that winter well here in the eastern seaboard it started off very warm December first hafe of January then the bottom fell out and february was very cold with the all out sleet ice storm Valentine's day 2007.the next winter was when we went into a moderate to strong nina which was 2007-2008.


I remember that one! We had something like 5-8” of sleet on top of 1-2” of snow. Then some ZR to glaciate it before that surge of hurricane force winds blasted in behind the Arctic front. A truly unforgettable Feb/Mar that year.
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Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Warm Season 2018
90+ degree days: 5
Thunderstorm Days: 5
Severe Days: 1
Total rainfall: 1.77”
Highest Gust: 54mph
Warmest High: 94.6*F
Warmest low: 65.5*F

Live Weather Stream

#1424
Phil

Posted 09 August 2018 - 09:45 PM

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Looks like another round of trades coming up after this WWB, according to the EPS. How potent/long-lasting they end up being is debatable, but the general theme (slow, hesitant, impotent transition into a more +ENSO-like circulation) remains the same.

Which still leads me to believe this is a 2014-like scenario with the slow walk into the +ENSO after the initial overshoot/head-fake, then the real deal comes later. Good chance it takes until early 2019 to cross the “official” niño threshold, and perhaps a legitimate moderate to strong niño could unfold for 2019/20.

Ksn8Xw2.jpg
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Warm Season 2018
90+ degree days: 5
Thunderstorm Days: 5
Severe Days: 1
Total rainfall: 1.77”
Highest Gust: 54mph
Warmest High: 94.6*F
Warmest low: 65.5*F

Live Weather Stream

#1425
Jesse

Posted 09 August 2018 - 09:47 PM

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2014-15 was a fantastic fall and winter around these parts. Honestly cannot wait.

#1426
Deweydog

Posted 09 August 2018 - 09:48 PM

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2014-15 was a fantastic fall and winter around these parts. Honestly cannot wait.


Haha! That winter was pretty mild!

All roads lead to Walgreens.  


#1427
Phil

Posted 09 August 2018 - 09:56 PM

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2014-15 was a fantastic fall and winter around these parts. Honestly cannot wait.


I wasn’t trying to suggest it’s a great winter analog for the middle/high latitudes. There are other factors too.

Keep in mind 2014/15 occurred during the heart of solar maximum, which changed the manner in which the QBO/BDC affected the NAM/high latitude interplay w/ the tropics. It was the 2nd most +NAO winter on record.

This winter we have a legitimately quiet Sun (both in terms of solar wind/AP index and radiative fluxes). So we should avoid a semi-permanent Greenland/Arctic vortex, and might even pull off the first -NAO winter since 2010/11, given the timing of the QBO cycling favoring excess O^3 in the subtropics as the PV is developing under a slowly developing low frequency dateline forcing regime.
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Warm Season 2018
90+ degree days: 5
Thunderstorm Days: 5
Severe Days: 1
Total rainfall: 1.77”
Highest Gust: 54mph
Warmest High: 94.6*F
Warmest low: 65.5*F

Live Weather Stream

#1428
Black Hole

Posted 12 August 2018 - 09:17 AM

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Another neat NWP experiment came out in nature recently, finding some of what we already know in that cross-equatorial wind behavior in the Pacific favors a NINA base state and reduces ENSO amplitude in the model, and SSTAs shift westward.

https://www.nature.c...1558-018-0248-0

I won't get a chance to read this till I am back at school tomorrow. Anyway, with regards to the westward focused SSTA's, are these similarly base shifted towards la nina, or is the westward shift because the eastern part of the basin is la nina shifted?


BS Atmospheric Science University of Utah May 2015

PhD Candidate Atmospheric Sciences

 

--Emphasis on: Forecasting, Mountain Weather, Numerical Weather Prediction, Data Assimilation

 

Winter 2017/2018

Dec 4: 3.2", 16: 0.9", 20: 2.1", 23: 1.5", 25: 4.6"

Jan 6: 1.5", 20: 10.8", 25: 1.5"

Feb 19: 8.6", 20: 2.4", 23: 7.1", 25: .5"

Mar 4: 13", 15: 1.8", 17: 5.3", 25: 4.2"

April 12: 1", 17: 1.3"

Total: 69.3"

 

 

Winter 2016/17 Snow:
Nov 17: 3.2", 23: 1.6", 28: 9.2" (14)

Dec 1: .5", 16: 2.5", 25: 13" (16)

Jan 2: 5", 3: 2.4", 4: 7.7", 12: 1", 19: 1.2", 21: 13", 23: 6", 24: 1", 25: 3.7", 26: 2.5" (43.5) 

Feb 11: .5", 23: 6.5", 27: 4.5" (13.5)

Mar 5: 5.5" (5.5)

Apr 8: 2", 9: 1.8" (3.8)

May 17: 1" (1)
Total: 96.3"

Lowest Temp: 2F


#1429
Phil

Posted 13 August 2018 - 07:35 AM

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Klaus Wolter has jumped onto the “head fake” train.

https://www.esrl.noa...v/psd/enso/mei/

gRgit54.jpg
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Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Warm Season 2018
90+ degree days: 5
Thunderstorm Days: 5
Severe Days: 1
Total rainfall: 1.77”
Highest Gust: 54mph
Warmest High: 94.6*F
Warmest low: 65.5*F

Live Weather Stream

#1430
TT-SEA

Posted 13 August 2018 - 07:38 AM

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I have to give you credit Phil... you have not wavered and it looks like you are going to end up being right again. 


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#1431
luminen

Posted 13 August 2018 - 07:50 AM

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Klaus Wolter has jumped onto the “head fake” train.

https://www.esrl.noa...v/psd/enso/mei/

gRgit54.jpg

 

Encouraging news! May the *8/*9 rule continue!  :)


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#1432
Phil

Posted 13 August 2018 - 08:01 AM

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I have to give you credit Phil... you have not wavered and it looks like you are going to end up being right again.


Thanks, but we’ll see. At some point the lines between warm neutral and weak niño are blurred, as far as impacts are concerned. IMO, it’s really about how we choose to define these events. I’d personally prefer a scale without so many threshold-based criteria.
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Warm Season 2018
90+ degree days: 5
Thunderstorm Days: 5
Severe Days: 1
Total rainfall: 1.77”
Highest Gust: 54mph
Warmest High: 94.6*F
Warmest low: 65.5*F

Live Weather Stream

#1433
TigerWoodsLibido

Posted 13 August 2018 - 08:19 AM

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Thanks, but we’ll see. At some point the lines between warm neutral and weak niño are blurred, as far as impacts are concerned. IMO, it’s really about how we choose to define these events. I’d personally prefer a scale without so many threshold-based criteria.


Thanks for all your insight and knowledge man. Giving us hope.
  • Phil likes this

Monmouth, Oregon Winter 17-18 Stats:

 

Coldest high: 34 (Dec 24)

Coldest low: 22 (Dec 11 & Feb 23)

Total snowfall: 1"

Last snowfall: February 21-22, 2018

Last accumulating snowfall on roads: March 6, 2017

Last sub-freezing high: Jan 13, 2017 (31)

Last White Christmas: 2008

 

My Twitter @353jerseys4hope


#1434
Black Hole

Posted 13 August 2018 - 11:12 AM

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Whether this year becomes el nino or only stays warm-neutral it does seem that it will focus on the central pacific region. What sorts of analogs do we have based on that? How about based on MEI?
 


BS Atmospheric Science University of Utah May 2015

PhD Candidate Atmospheric Sciences

 

--Emphasis on: Forecasting, Mountain Weather, Numerical Weather Prediction, Data Assimilation

 

Winter 2017/2018

Dec 4: 3.2", 16: 0.9", 20: 2.1", 23: 1.5", 25: 4.6"

Jan 6: 1.5", 20: 10.8", 25: 1.5"

Feb 19: 8.6", 20: 2.4", 23: 7.1", 25: .5"

Mar 4: 13", 15: 1.8", 17: 5.3", 25: 4.2"

April 12: 1", 17: 1.3"

Total: 69.3"

 

 

Winter 2016/17 Snow:
Nov 17: 3.2", 23: 1.6", 28: 9.2" (14)

Dec 1: .5", 16: 2.5", 25: 13" (16)

Jan 2: 5", 3: 2.4", 4: 7.7", 12: 1", 19: 1.2", 21: 13", 23: 6", 24: 1", 25: 3.7", 26: 2.5" (43.5) 

Feb 11: .5", 23: 6.5", 27: 4.5" (13.5)

Mar 5: 5.5" (5.5)

Apr 8: 2", 9: 1.8" (3.8)

May 17: 1" (1)
Total: 96.3"

Lowest Temp: 2F