ENSO Discussion

[Jesse]

I feel like you're just looking for a semantics battle. I meant when looking at a combination of duration and intensity, it's not close. I was never looking at intensity alone, and neither was Jim. 2008 was easily the more impressive event for western WA, apart from isolated outflow areas.

 

And that's not even including snowfall. 2008 had way more almost everywhere.

You’re a slippery, slimy one. I’m glad Justin is up to the challenge this time because arguing with you is absolutely exhausting and usually fruitless.

[BLI snowman]

I feel like you're just looking for a semantics battle. I meant when looking at a combination of duration and intensity, it's not close. I was never looking at intensity alone, and neither was Jim. 2008 was easily the more impressive event for western WA, apart from isolated outflow areas.

 

And that's not even including snowfall. 2008 had way more almost everywhere.

 

No, you just keep moving the goalposts for whatever reason. All I'm looking at is the intensity of the arctic outbreak itself. And from that standpoint it stacks up just fine with anything that we've seen since, sans 1998 which was clearly a little superior. It's fine to just admit it and move on. We have objective temp data to rely on after all, some of which I have posted.

[Deweydog]

1996's only mistake was that it didn't happen 10 years later.

[Front Ranger]

You’re a slippery, slimy one. I’m glad Justin is up to the challenge this time because arguing with you is absolutely exhausting and usually fruitless.

Give me a break. All I've done is provide actual facts to support my statements. Let's see you try that. Seriously...try it for once instead of lame ad hominem attacks like the above.

 

Completely uncalled for. I could accuse Justin of being "slippery and slimy" just as easily. 

 

Address facts with facts, or stay out of it.

[Front Ranger]

No, you just keep moving the goalposts for whatever reason. All I'm looking at is the intensity of the arctic outbreak itself. And from that standpoint it stacks up just fine with anything that we've seen since, sans 1998 which was clearly a little superior. It's fine to just admit it and move on. We have objective temp data to rely on after all, some of which I have posted.

I never moved my goal posts. I was never talking solely about intensity. That was you, so I addressed it, but my "goal posts" in comparing the two events was both duration and intensity the whole time.

[Front Ranger]

1996's only mistake was that it didn't happen 10 years later.

 

It was a very nice regional Arctic outbreak. I experienced it and enjoyed it as a 14 year old. It was much colder for much longer in the Portland metro area than most of the region.

 

When comparing that Arctic event to others that have happened since (and I'm not sure why one would look only at intensity and ignore duration when evaluating an event like this - did the duration of the cold not matter in Portland?), there have been others since that were more impressive from a numbers perspective. For areas both north and south of Portland.

 

It is what it is. Big deal. 

[Jesse]

Give me a break. All I've done is provide actual facts to support my statements. Let's see you try that. Seriously...try it for once instead of lame ad hominem attacks like the above.

 

Completely uncalled for. I could accuse Justin of being "slippery and slimy" just as easily.

 

Address facts with facts, or stay out of it.

You aren’t addressing the facts, you’re changing the goalposts as you go like usual.

[Deweydog]

It was a very nice regional Arctic outbreak. I experienced it and enjoyed it as a 14 year old. It was much colder for much longer in the Portland metro area than most of the region.

 

When comparing that Arctic event to others that have happened since (and I'm not sure why one would look only at intensity and ignore duration when evaluating an event like this - did the duration of the cold not matter in Portland?), there have been others since that were more impressive from a numbers perspective. For areas both north and south of Portland.

 

It is what it is. Big deal.

I'm just giving you . 1996 doesn't do much for me as I'm always slanted toward upper air analysis. It was bad a** from a low level/outflow perspective but it wasn't exactly toe curling from a height/thickness perspective.

[Front Ranger]

You aren’t addressing the facts, you’re changing the goalposts as you go like usual.

 

You can repeat that until you're blue in the face, but it's not true. From the beginning, I was talking about BOTH intensity and duration. That is always how I've evaluated Arctic outbreaks, and I'm not sure why anyone would ignore one in favor of the other. Care to tell my why I should ignore duration in this case? 

 

If Justin only wants to look at lows or whatever, that's his goal posts - not mine.

[MossMan]

I would take Dec. 1990 over 1996 due to longevity but would take a 2008 over a 1990 due to longevity...but at the end of the day I would be more than happy with a 1990, 1996, 1998, 2008...and even so desperate that I would take a Dec. 2016!!!! Anything other than boring drizzle and 44 degrees day after day!

[BLI snowman]

I never moved my goal posts. I was never talking solely about intensity. That was you, so I addressed it, but my "goal posts" in comparing the two events was both duration and intensity the whole time.

 

Just as long as you can agree that it was perfectly comparable to anything else sans 1998 from an intensity standpoint. You know, like looking at how cold the temperatures actually got.

[snow_wizard]

Better/ more enjoyable (So bring some good ole' subjectivity into this.) arctic outbreaks here since 1996.

 

Dec 98

Jan  04

Dec  08

Dec  09

Dec  13

Feb  14

 

We've had  a lot more than that here.

 

Feb 2006

Jan 2007

Nov 2010

Feb 2011

Jan 2012

Nov 2014

[snow_wizard]

I'm just giving you s**t. 1996 doesn't do much for me as I'm always slanted toward upper air analysis. It was bad a** from a low level/outflow perspective but it wasn't exactly toe curling from a height/thickness perspective.

 

The low level ones are often the best snow producers.

[snow_wizard]

BTW I think from a purely hitting like a ton of bricks perspective Nov 2010 is probably the best Arctic blast since Dec 1990.  That thing was classic!

[TigerWoodsLibido]

BTW I think from a purely hitting like a ton of bricks perspective Nov 2010 is probably the best Arctic blast since Dec 1990. That thing was classic!

I don't remember a blast in Nov, 2010 at all.

[HighlandExperience]

I don't remember a blast in Nov, 2010 at all.

That’s because you live to far south

[Guest happ]

La Nina's grip on the West Coast

 

Daniel Swain

 

[Guest Dome Buster]

You guys are whining too much. Bet we get the goods in 2 1/2 weeks tops.

[Jesse]

That’s because you live to far south

It was very memorable down here.

[MossMan]

You guys are whining too much. Bet we get the goods in 2 1/2 weeks tops.

I’m thinking 2 1/2 months!

[weather girl]

Hi you guys - I haven't been here in for*ev*er, but I was thinking about y'all.  Must be the PNA ridge.    The last time I was here, Jim was on hiatus.  Dewey, Jesse, Tim----all still here.  Nice to know some thing never change.  Hope you are all doing well!  

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

Hi you guys - I haven't been here in for*ev*er, but I was thinking about y'all.  Must be the PNA ridge.    The last time I was here, Jim was on hiatus.  Dewey, Jesse, Tim----all still here.  Nice to know some thing never change.  Hope you are all doing well!

 

Welcome back. I was Brian in Bellingham, now I am Brian in Leavenworth. Some changes, but some things here will never change.

[Deweydog]

Hi you guys - I haven't been here in for*ev*er, but I was thinking about y'all. Must be the PNA ridge. The last time I was here, Jim was on hiatus. Dewey, Jesse, Tim----all still here. Nice to know some thing never change. Hope you are all doing well!

Hi!

[Jesse]

Hi you guys - I haven't been here in for*ev*er, but I was thinking about y'all. Must be the PNA ridge. The last time I was here, Jim was on hiatus. Dewey, Jesse, Tim----all still here. Nice to know some thing never change. Hope you are all doing well!

Welcome back! Are you still in the Salem area?

[SilverFallsAndrew]

We've had  a lot more than that here.

 

Feb 2006

Jan 2007

Nov 2010

Feb 2011

Jan 2012

Nov 2014

 

I was listing events I felt were more significant IMBY than the Jan/Feb arctic outbreak in 1996, not cataloging all arctic outbreaks here... 

 

All of the above listed events effected this area, though there was no real "arctic" influence in January 2012, just maritime cold. November 2014 was fairly significant for when it struck in the season, but no snow here. 

 

The others were fairly notable here at least for cold, though last winter had 2-3 events on par with January 07'.  

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I don't remember a blast in Nov, 2010 at all.

 

Where were you back then. It didn't really make it south of Albany. Salem/north had sub-freezing highs though.

[Gradient Keeper]

...ENSO Update...

Update prepared by:

Climate Prediction Center / NCEP

December 4 2017

 

____ENSO Alert System Status: La Niña Advisory

 

La Niña conditions are present.*

 

Equatorial sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are below average across the central and eastern Pacific Ocean. La Niña conditions are predicted to continue (~65%-75% chance) at least through the Northern Hemisphere winter 2017-18.*

 

*Additional thoughts: Negative subsurface temperature anomalies continue, but now only east of the dateline where slight warming is occurring over the west Pacific throughout region Niño 4. This remains an east based Niña.

 

* Note: These statements are updated once a month (2nd Thursday of each month) in association with the ENSO Diagnostics Discussion, which can be found by clicking http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory

 

*Latest weekly SST Departures:

Niño 4: 0.0ºC

Niño 3.4: -0.7ºC

Niño 3: -1.1ºC

Niño 1+2: -1.3ºC

 

Oceanic Niño Trimonthly index(ONI): September-October-November(SON) -0.7ºC.

 

With the latest SON ONI value of -0.7ºC we are now identically mirroring last years weak Niña. *It appears this Niña may peak late December to late January.

 

Full technical and detailed information can be found here:

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf

 

 

 

 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Where were you back then. It didn't really make it south of Albany. Salem/north had sub-freezing highs though.

I lived in Willamina, one of the best spots for snow on the valley floor.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I lived in Willamina, one of the best spots for snow on the valley floor.

 

You know when I was a senior in high school I struck out 17 batters in a game against Willamina...

[wx_statman]

Late January/early Feb 1996 was arguably one of the most signicant arctic events of the last 25 years up here. We have yet to do better this century IMO. I can still remember seeing ice floes on the Columbia from the 205 bridge.

 

I remember the ice floes as well. That was an incredibly cold airmass in the basin and gorge. Hood River hit -9. They didn't see another sub-zero reading until last January, when they managed -1 on the 5th. 

[Front Ranger]

You know when I was a senior in high school I struck out 17 batters in a game against Willamina...

 

[weather girl]

Yeah.  Still Salem.    Hi Brian in Bellingham.   I'm probably in the wrong thread, but I hope a pattern change is coming soon.  I'll check around.

I've kind of missed the good ol' Weather Forum.  Maybe this is way too big, but hey.  

 

[Guest happ]

What's up?  La Nina should not be dry/ warm for the PacificNW.

[Jesse]

What's up? La Nina should not be dry/ warm for the PacificNW.

La Nina’s are often back loaded. A little cold ridging is nothing unusual for a Niña December.

[Guest happ]

La Nina’s are often back loaded. A little cold ridging is nothing unusual for a Niña December.

 

I don't know, Jesse the persistence of this current pattern is troubling/ puzzling. 

[Kayla]

La Nina’s are often back loaded. A little cold ridging is nothing unusual for a Niña December.

 

That's not necessarily true... In fact, there have only been 7 years at PDX with this long of a dry period in December. You know the years... Mainly all neutral to weak Niño years with one weak Niña (2005) and strong Niña (1999) mixed in there.

 

This pattern is extremely rare no matter how you spin it for a Niña in December. You could almost go as far to say that it's unheard of (in modern era) with the current ENSO status.

[Dan the Weatherman]

La Nina’s are often back loaded. A little cold ridging is nothing unusual for a Niña December.

 

Socal has hardly had any rain since October 1 (downtown Los Angeles has recorded a paltry 0.11" since October 1). I know La Nina can be drier than normal for Socal, but Socal often gets rain in the fall during La Nina years, especially in November and December, even if the seasonal total winds up being below average. This utter dryness in the region along with all the large brush fires is getting to the point of being ridiculous! Something really weird is going on in the big picture as of late.

[Phil]

Warm off-equator EPAC waters in a Niña = expanded Hadley Cell ~ 100W-130W.

[Front Ranger]

That's not necessarily true... In fact, there have only been 7 years at PDX with this long of a dry period in December. You know the years... Mainly all neutral to weak Niño years with one weak Niña (2005) and strong Niña (1999) mixed in there.

 

This pattern is extremely rare no matter how you spin it for a Niña in December. You could almost go as far to say that it's unheard of (in modern era) with the current ENSO status.

 

1989 had a streak of 12 straight days at PDX with no measurable precip, and 18 out of the last 21 days that month were dry.

[Kayla]

1989 had a streak of 12 straight days at PDX with no measurable precip, and 18 out of the last 21 days that month were dry.

Yeah, 1989 is included in those 7 years. Yet again though, it wasn’t a Niña in December.