ENSO Discussion

[Jesse]

I don't know, Jesse the persistence of this current pattern is troubling/ puzzling.

If you want to be troubled/puzzled by it that’s your call I suppose.

[Front Ranger]

Yeah, 1989 is included in those 7 years. Yet again though, it wasn’t a Niña in December.

 

Not a Nina, but negative neutral. 

[Kayla]

Not a Nina, but negative neutral. 

 

I agree to agree! 

[Dan the Weatherman]

Warm off-equator EPAC waters in a Niña = expanded Hadley Cell ~ 100W-130W.

 

Didn't you say earlier this year that the Hadley Cell was contracting? Did it expand again after that time period as La Nina developed?

[snow_wizard]

What's up?  La Nina should not be dry/ warm for the PacificNW.

 

It's not warm at the surface.

[snow_wizard]

Socal has hardly had any rain since October 1 (downtown Los Angeles has recorded a paltry 0.11" since October 1). I know La Nina can be drier than normal for Socal, but Socal often gets rain in the fall during La Nina years, especially in November and December, even if the seasonal total winds up being below average. This utter dryness in the region along with all the large brush fires is getting to the point of being ridiculous! Something really weird is going on in the big picture as of late.

 

I'm betting you guys will have insane rainfall when the cold sets in here.

[Phil]

Didn't you say earlier this year that the Hadley Cell was contracting? Did it expand again after that time period as La Nina developed?

It’s been contracting overall since 2014, but there’s multimonth variability too.

[Guest happ]

This is sad

 

@ZLabe

 

[Phil]

This is sad

 

@ZLabe

That’s a bit misleading..certainly much of that warmth will be wiped out by the cold shot next week.

 

[Guest happ]

That’s a bit misleading..certainly much of that warmth will be wiped out by the cold shot next week.

 

 

"much of that warmth will be wiped out by the cold shot next week" - Not down here  

 

 

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

This is sad

 

@ZLabe

I don't think it has been warmer than normal in Eastern Washington at all, thanks largely to the inversion, where a lot of places did not get above freezing for a couple of weeks.  Where do they get those temps at?

[Guest happ]

I don't think it has been warmer than normal in Eastern Washington at all, thanks largely to the inversion, where a lot of places did not get above freezing for a couple of weeks.  Where do they get those temps at?

 

https://twitter.com/ZLabe?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Eauthor

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

https://twitter.com/ZLabe?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Eauthor

I think the difference might be the morning lows during the inversion were not that low, and that counts too.  I checked Spokane NWS, and highs overall look to be close to average, a lot below average, though not by much, and a few days well above normal.  But lows averaging above normal due to the inversion.

[Guest happ]

A warm autumn in a warm year

 

[WeatherArchive]

Scientists call it global warming.  Do you expect cold during a warm climate? It's like pounding a square peg into a round hole and you just smash up the board.

[WeatherArchive]

It's not warm at the surface.

I thought we were under an El Nino this year. What's this about a La Nina? The pattern sure doesn't reflect that!  

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

Scientists call it global warming.  Do you expect cold during a warm climate? It's like pounding a square peg into a round hole and you just smash up the board.

Tell that to the people in the Midwest, where they are having extreme cold.  

Parts of the Midwest had their coldest Christmas on record.  Chicago and Minneapolis both had their coldest Christmas since 1996, while Duluth, Minnesota, had its chilliest Dec. 25 since 1933.

The Midwest is experiencing frigid cold today, with this morning's temperature falling to minus-8 degrees in Minneapolis and St. Paul and minus-16 in Ladysmith, Wisconsin.   Duluth, Minnesota  fell to minus-21 degrees with a wind chill of minus-44.

 

​None of that proves or disproves global warming, but to say there will be no cold is a stupid argument.  You need to do better than that.

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

I thought we were under an El Nino this year. What's this about a La Nina? The pattern sure doesn't reflect that!  

Obviously you know little about El Nino or La Nina.  This is a classic La Nina pattern.  Cold in the northern tier of states, dry for California, etc.  

[Phil]

Obviously you know little about El Nino or La Nina. This is a classic La Nina pattern. Cold in the northern tier of states, dry for California, etc.

Well, it’s a +NAO/+PNA version of a niña, but yeah the Walker/Hadley intensity ratios are definitely Niña-esque, along with the Indo-Pacific convection (classic Niña)

[Guest happ]

The La Nina of 2010/11 provided abundant rainfall for California

 

@climatecentral

 

[Guest happ]

2017

 

[Phil]

The La Nina of 2010/11 provided abundant rainfall for California

 

@climatecentral

That was a strong solar min/+QBO Niña, so that’s not surprising. This is a weak pre-solar min/-QBO Niña.

[Dan the Weatherman]

That was a strong solar min/+QBO Niña, so that’s not surprising. This is a weak pre-solar min/-QBO Niña.

 

Wasn't 2016-17 a weak +QBO Nina as well? We got some decent rains last year in Socal with my area in Orange getting over 19".

[Phil]

Wasn't 2016-17 a weak +QBO Nina as well? We got some decent rains last year in Socal with my area in Orange getting over 19".

Yeah, it was +QBO. The Niña/+QBO combo is generally better for the west (all around) than Niña/-QBO.

[Gradient Keeper]

Latest SSTs

ENSO Alert System Status: La Niña Advisory

La Niña conditions are present.*

Equatorial sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are below average across the central and eastern Pacific Ocean. La Niña is likely (exceeding ~80%) through the Northern Hemisphere winter 2017-18, with a transition to ENSO-neutral most likely during the mid-to-late spring.*

 

 

We now have Positive subsurface anomalies expanding and intensifying. The area of any subsurface cooling from 160 W to the west coast is dwindling.

 

[Geos]

Quite an expansive cold pool right now.

 

 

[Gradient Keeper]

Quite an expansive cold pool right now.

 

 

Definitely. Looks quite healthy and has expanded from say 2 months ago.

[Geos]

Impressive seeing the La Nina strengthen as we progress into the new year.

 

ENSO region 1+2 really tanking now.

 

[Guest happ]

Illustrates the sustained heat over the Pacific Southwest

[Phil]

Okay, so on the ENSO front, I’m seeing signs of some legitimate low frequency shifts towards a more basin wide cell network, perhaps starting soon, though there is one wrinkle in the fold.

 

So, first, the recent WHEM MJO pulse following the previous warm pool event produced a modest downwelling OKW that’s coupled to the atmosphere (revealed on low pass). This should open the WPAC duct to some extent, which could focus trades farther westward with time if the inertia of the coupled downwelling wave begins warms the EPAC enough to balance the zonal gradient and elongate the Walker Cell.

 

However, it will be countered by the upcoming MJO return pass through the Indo-Pacific domain, which will attempt to re-tighten the Walker Cell/dampen the KW. The depth of this MJO event will determine whether we do transition into a more basin wide event, or whether we return to the more “classic” east based style event.

[Guest happ]

Gulp  

 

[Geos]

Gulp  

 

I'll take the CMC please. Looks like a rough agreement that the East will be milder than normal and a decent chance it will be cooler than normal in the NW. 

[Phil]

ENSO/Walker Cell uplift system migrating southwestward in response to the MJO:

 

[Phil]

Epic battle upcoming here. The downwelling OKW initiated by the late December WWB/MJO is now fighting the current MJO/trade wind burst..oceanic inertia vs atmospheric forcing..who wins?

 

These trades are beastly, and will try to dampen the OKW as it sloshes eastward, but the OKW is quite heavy-set itself..hard to know what the outcome will be.

 

Either way, using solar/QBO/fluid resonance analogs for the upcoming year, I think ENSO in 2018/19 will probably be neutral or very weak. The third year following super Niños tends to be transitional on the large scale, with decadal climate shifts becoming apparent in the vast majority of cases.

 

Since 1950, without considering the solar cycle, the third year, post-super niño analogs are:

 

1960/61: Neutral (started AMO flip).

 

1975/76: Strong Niña (started the Great Pacific Climate Shift/+PDO).

 

1985/86 Neutral (started the incredible +ENSO and move into +AMO).

 

2000/01: Niña (ended the stretch of 5 niñas in 6yrs and started the stretch of anemic ENSO/super +AMO.

 

I guess if you want to look st 2009/10, 3yrs afterwards was actually 2012/13, which marked the beginning of another Pacific climate shift to +PNA/+PDO.

[Dan the Weatherman]

Epic battle upcoming here. The downwelling OKW initiated by the late December WWB/MJO is now fighting the current MJO/trade wind burst..oceanic inertia vs atmospheric forcing..who wins?

 

These trades are beastly, and will try to dampen the OKW as it sloshes eastward, but the OKW is quite heavy-set itself..hard to know what the outcome will be.

 

Either way, using solar/QBO/fluid resonance analogs for the upcoming year, I think ENSO in 2018/19 will probably be neutral or very weak. The third year following super Niños tends to be transitional on the large scale, with decadal climate shifts becoming apparent in the vast majority of cases.

 

Since 1950, without considering the solar cycle, the third year, post-super niño analogs are:

 

1960/61: Neutral (started AMO flip).

 

1975/76: Strong Niña (started the Great Pacific Climate Shift/+PDO).

 

1985/86 Neutral (started the incredible +ENSO and move into +AMO).

 

2000/01: Niña (ended the stretch of 5 niñas in 6yrs and started the stretch of anemic ENSO/super +AMO.

 

I guess if you want to look st 2009/10, 3yrs afterwards was actually 2012/13, which marked the beginning of another Pacific climate shift to +PNA/+PDO.

 

When do you think the AMO will flip negative again?

[Phil]

When do you think the AMO will flip negative again?

I suspect it will happen sometime in the mid/late 2020s assuming my climate prediction is correct.

 

Much of the AMO variability we see is driven by low frequency variability in the AMOC and subpolar gyre circulation, and those oceanic circulations are driven mostly by low frequency variability in the NAO, and also ENSO/tropical forcing(s) through other conduits.

 

If/when we observe a more prolonged downturn in the boreal winter NAO, the NATL/AMO deep water current system will still take awhile to respond..about a decade.

[Guest happ]

I suspect it will happen sometime in the mid/late 2020s assuming my climate prediction is correct.

 

Much of the AMO variability we see is driven by low frequency variability in the AMOC and subpolar gyre circulation, and those oceanic circulations are driven mostly by low frequency variability in the NAO, and also ENSO/tropical forcing(s) through other conduits.

 

If/when we observe a more prolonged downturn in the boreal winter NAO, the NATL/AMO deep water current system will still take awhile to respond..about a decade.

 

[Jesse]

The REALLY good stuff is always about a decade down the road with Phil.

[HighlandExperience]

[Deweydog]