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#1451
Phil

Posted 01 October 2018 - 07:54 AM

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It does look like a good WWB will occur the next 1-2 weeks, which should help the ENSO regions see some warming, but as usual, the question is can it sustain itself. We will have to see going forwards, but with enough of a WBB we will push into weak El nino considering all of the warm subsurface water.


El Niño conditions? Or an El Niño by the official definition? As I’m sure you already know, the latter depends on circulatory tendencies on frequencies much lower than a single WWB event.

FWIW, it’s not just the frequency or intensity of the wind stress forcing, but also how it times with the relatively fixed intertia/resonance-frequency of the thermocline/KW/ERW cycle itself (which is tightly constrained via mechanical fluid-dynamic limits).

If the wind stress forcing and thermocline/KW inertia are out-of-phase, it’s very difficult to pull off a coherent ENSO event. Often times, poorly synchronized years (such as this one and 2014/15) precede larger events of a similar sign in subsequent years, given they’re usually reflections of slower-evolving macroscale teleconnective boundary conditions.

Which is why I’ve considered this year to be false start prequel to a stronger niño in 2019/20 (or possibly 2020/21 depending on how the annular modes/AAM budget responds this winter).
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#1452
TT-SEA

Posted 01 October 2018 - 08:12 AM

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El Niño conditions? Or an El Niño by the official definition? As I’m sure you already know, the latter depends on circulatory tendencies on frequencies much lower than a single WWB event.

FWIW, it’s not just the frequency or intensity of the wind stress forcing, but also how it times with the relatively fixed intertia/resonance-frequency of the thermocline/KW/ERW cycle itself (which is tightly constrained via mechanical fluid-dynamic limits).

If the wind stress forcing and thermocline/KW inertia are out-of-phase, it’s very difficult to pull off a coherent ENSO event. Often times, poorly synchronized years (such as this one and 2014/15) precede larger events of a similar sign in subsequent years, given they’re usually reflections of slower-evolving macroscale teleconnective boundary conditions.

Which is why I’ve considered this year to be false start prequel to a stronger niño in 2019/20 (or possibly 2020/21 depending on how the annular modes/AAM budget responds this winter).

 

 

The ice age keeps getting pushed back!   ;)


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#1453
Black Hole

Posted 01 October 2018 - 01:57 PM

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El Niño conditions? Or an El Niño by the official definition? As I’m sure you already know, the latter depends on circulatory tendencies on frequencies much lower than a single WWB event.

FWIW, it’s not just the frequency or intensity of the wind stress forcing, but also how it times with the relatively fixed intertia/resonance-frequency of the thermocline/KW/ERW cycle itself (which is tightly constrained via mechanical fluid-dynamic limits).

If the wind stress forcing and thermocline/KW inertia are out-of-phase, it’s very difficult to pull off a coherent ENSO event. Often times, poorly synchronized years (such as this one and 2014/15) precede larger events of a similar sign in subsequent years, given they’re usually reflections of slower-evolving macroscale teleconnective boundary conditions.

Which is why I’ve considered this year to be false start prequel to a stronger niño in 2019/20 (or possibly 2020/21 depending on how the annular modes/AAM budget responds this winter).

I'm talking about sea surface temperature anomalies, as problematic as they may be. They should see warming with 2 weeks of anomalous westerly flow, perhaps enough to begin to quality as el nino conditions....though it means nothing if it doesn't sustain itself, I get that. 


BS Atmospheric Science University of Utah May 2015

PhD Candidate Atmospheric Sciences

 

--Emphasis on: Forecasting, Mountain Weather, Numerical Weather Prediction, Data Assimilation

 

Winter 2017/2018

Dec 4: 3.2", 16: 0.9", 20: 2.1", 23: 1.5", 25: 4.6"

Jan 6: 1.5", 20: 10.8", 25: 1.5"

Feb 19: 8.6", 20: 2.4", 23: 7.1", 25: .5"

Mar 4: 13", 15: 1.8", 17: 5.3", 25: 4.2"

April 12: 1", 17: 1.3"

Total: 69.3"

 

 

Winter 2016/17 Snow:
Nov 17: 3.2", 23: 1.6", 28: 9.2" (14)

Dec 1: .5", 16: 2.5", 25: 13" (16)

Jan 2: 5", 3: 2.4", 4: 7.7", 12: 1", 19: 1.2", 21: 13", 23: 6", 24: 1", 25: 3.7", 26: 2.5" (43.5) 

Feb 11: .5", 23: 6.5", 27: 4.5" (13.5)

Mar 5: 5.5" (5.5)

Apr 8: 2", 9: 1.8" (3.8)

May 17: 1" (1)
Total: 96.3"

Lowest Temp: 2F


#1454
AbbyJr

Posted 05 October 2018 - 08:36 PM

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I remember that one! We had something like 5-8” of sleet on top of 1-2” of snow. Then some ZR to glaciate it before that surge of hurricane force winds blasted in behind the Arctic front. A truly unforgettable Feb/Mar that year.

 

2006/2007 was an awesome winter for the Pacific Northwest. I'm up in Canada (suburbs of Vancouver BC) area and I remember back to back heavy rain and wind storms throughout November. A number of strong Pineapple Express storms came through. Then to end off the month, one of those Pineapple Express storms met up with an unusually strong arctic front and produced a massive widespread snowstorm. My area had roughly 50 cm of snow fall in 24 hours followed by a deep freeze. December featured more back to back wind and rain storms, followed by another snowy arctic blast in January. Its interesting that 2006/2007 was a weak El Nino yet one of the best winters I've seen. It was fairly low solar, which I think helped. This year we are likely going into neutral to weak El Nino stage and very low solar. I don't want to get my hopes up but a 2006/2007 redux would be fine by me.  :D


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#1455
TigerWoodsLibido

Posted 05 October 2018 - 11:03 PM

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2006/2007 was an awesome winter for the Pacific Northwest. I'm up in Canada (suburbs of Vancouver BC) area and I remember back to back heavy rain and wind storms throughout November. A number of strong Pineapple Express storms came through. Then to end off the month, one of those Pineapple Express storms met up with an unusually strong arctic front and produced a massive widespread snowstorm. My area had roughly 50 cm of snow fall in 24 hours followed by a deep freeze. December featured more back to back wind and rain storms, followed by another snowy arctic blast in January. Its interesting that 2006/2007 was a weak El Nino yet one of the best winters I've seen. It was fairly low solar, which I think helped. This year we are likely going into neutral to weak El Nino stage and very low solar. I don't want to get my hopes up but a 2006/2007 redux would be fine by me. :D


Never experienced an AR going into a snow event. How often do they happen in the Willamette Valley?

Springfield, Oregon cold season 18-19 Stats:

Coldest high: 54 (Oct 5)
Coldest low: 35 (Oct 15)
Total snowfall: 0"
Last accumulating snowfall: February 21-22, 2018
Last sub-freezing high: Jan 13, 2017 (31)
Last White Christmas: 1985

Personal Stats:

Last accumulating snowfall : March 6, 2017
Last sub-freezing high: Jan 13, 2017 (31)
Last White Christmas: 2008

My Twitter @353jerseys4hope


#1456
Black Hole

Posted 12 October 2018 - 09:03 AM

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I wonder if the strong WWB of the last few weeks will kick off another downwelling kelvin wave. Generally, weaker westerly wind anomalies look to continue so the emerging nino should keep strengthening for now. 


BS Atmospheric Science University of Utah May 2015

PhD Candidate Atmospheric Sciences

 

--Emphasis on: Forecasting, Mountain Weather, Numerical Weather Prediction, Data Assimilation

 

Winter 2017/2018

Dec 4: 3.2", 16: 0.9", 20: 2.1", 23: 1.5", 25: 4.6"

Jan 6: 1.5", 20: 10.8", 25: 1.5"

Feb 19: 8.6", 20: 2.4", 23: 7.1", 25: .5"

Mar 4: 13", 15: 1.8", 17: 5.3", 25: 4.2"

April 12: 1", 17: 1.3"

Total: 69.3"

 

 

Winter 2016/17 Snow:
Nov 17: 3.2", 23: 1.6", 28: 9.2" (14)

Dec 1: .5", 16: 2.5", 25: 13" (16)

Jan 2: 5", 3: 2.4", 4: 7.7", 12: 1", 19: 1.2", 21: 13", 23: 6", 24: 1", 25: 3.7", 26: 2.5" (43.5) 

Feb 11: .5", 23: 6.5", 27: 4.5" (13.5)

Mar 5: 5.5" (5.5)

Apr 8: 2", 9: 1.8" (3.8)

May 17: 1" (1)
Total: 96.3"

Lowest Temp: 2F


#1457
Geos

Posted 15 October 2018 - 09:59 AM

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All anamoly regions sinking after a peak a week ago.

 

nino34.png

 

nino3.png

 

nino4.png

 

nino12.png


Finn Hill, elevation: 460 ft
2018 moisture: 27.16", 10/9

Lowest Temp of Autumn 2018: 36°, 10/03

 

2017-2018 winter snowfall total: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

Weather station/wx cam: http://map.bloomsky....qBxp6apnJSnqqm2
https://www.wundergr...OTHE144#history


#1458
Front Ranger

Posted 15 October 2018 - 12:07 PM

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It just seems that you've gradually moved more towards the eventual Nino camp over the last few months. At some points I swear you said you didn't think we'd see a true Nino in 2019-20. But I haven't closely followed every post in this thread.

 

Just went back and read this and realized I meant 2018-19 here. My bad.


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Cool anomalies soothe the soul.


#1459
Phil

Posted 15 October 2018 - 02:28 PM

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Just went back and read this and realized I meant 2018-19 here. My bad.


It’s cool. Thank you for the acknowledgment. I really do appreciate it.
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#1460
TigerWoodsLibido

Posted 15 October 2018 - 10:21 PM

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All anamoly regions sinking after a peak a week ago.

nino34.png

nino3.png

nino4.png

nino12.png


Didn't expect this.

Springfield, Oregon cold season 18-19 Stats:

Coldest high: 54 (Oct 5)
Coldest low: 35 (Oct 15)
Total snowfall: 0"
Last accumulating snowfall: February 21-22, 2018
Last sub-freezing high: Jan 13, 2017 (31)
Last White Christmas: 1985

Personal Stats:

Last accumulating snowfall : March 6, 2017
Last sub-freezing high: Jan 13, 2017 (31)
Last White Christmas: 2008

My Twitter @353jerseys4hope


#1461
TT-SEA

Posted 15 October 2018 - 10:24 PM

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Didn't expect this.

 

 

Still looks like a weak Nino signature... and is the blob back???  

 

cdas-sflux_ssta_global_1.png



#1462
ShawniganLake

Posted 15 October 2018 - 10:24 PM

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Didn't expect this.

Daily variations. Probably temporary

#1463
Black Hole

Posted 16 October 2018 - 07:19 AM

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El Niño conditions? Or an El Niño by the official definition? As I’m sure you already know, the latter depends on circulatory tendencies on frequencies much lower than a single WWB event.

FWIW, it’s not just the frequency or intensity of the wind stress forcing, but also how it times with the relatively fixed intertia/resonance-frequency of the thermocline/KW/ERW cycle itself (which is tightly constrained via mechanical fluid-dynamic limits).

If the wind stress forcing and thermocline/KW inertia are out-of-phase, it’s very difficult to pull off a coherent ENSO event. Often times, poorly synchronized years (such as this one and 2014/15) precede larger events of a similar sign in subsequent years, given they’re usually reflections of slower-evolving macroscale teleconnective boundary conditions.

Which is why I’ve considered this year to be false start prequel to a stronger niño in 2019/20 (or possibly 2020/21 depending on how the annular modes/AAM budget responds this winter).

I had been on the fence, but at this point I think a weak-moderate event is likely. It's not just the WWB or warm subsurface temps that make me say that either. Walker cell is looking a lot more nino like, and the pattern in the midlatitudes setting up reflects that. 


BS Atmospheric Science University of Utah May 2015

PhD Candidate Atmospheric Sciences

 

--Emphasis on: Forecasting, Mountain Weather, Numerical Weather Prediction, Data Assimilation

 

Winter 2017/2018

Dec 4: 3.2", 16: 0.9", 20: 2.1", 23: 1.5", 25: 4.6"

Jan 6: 1.5", 20: 10.8", 25: 1.5"

Feb 19: 8.6", 20: 2.4", 23: 7.1", 25: .5"

Mar 4: 13", 15: 1.8", 17: 5.3", 25: 4.2"

April 12: 1", 17: 1.3"

Total: 69.3"

 

 

Winter 2016/17 Snow:
Nov 17: 3.2", 23: 1.6", 28: 9.2" (14)

Dec 1: .5", 16: 2.5", 25: 13" (16)

Jan 2: 5", 3: 2.4", 4: 7.7", 12: 1", 19: 1.2", 21: 13", 23: 6", 24: 1", 25: 3.7", 26: 2.5" (43.5) 

Feb 11: .5", 23: 6.5", 27: 4.5" (13.5)

Mar 5: 5.5" (5.5)

Apr 8: 2", 9: 1.8" (3.8)

May 17: 1" (1)
Total: 96.3"

Lowest Temp: 2F


#1464
Webberweather53

Posted 16 October 2018 - 01:03 PM

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I just updated my Ensemble Oceanic Nino Index (ENS ONI) to the most recent tri-monthly period. The similarities between the last several years and 1876-1880 is beyond absurd, we've been following the 1880-81 weak El Nino event to a T this year.

 

https://www.webberwe...nino-index.html


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#1465
Phil

Posted 16 October 2018 - 01:06 PM

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I just updated my Ensemble Oceanic Nino Index (ENS ONI) to the most recent tri-monthly period. The similarities between the last several years and 1876-1880 is beyond absurd, we've been following the 1880-81 weak El Nino event to a T this year.

https://www.webberwe...nino-index.html


Just saw your tweet before you posted this.

Beyond fascinating. I wish we had upper troposphere analyses from the 19th century, lol.
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#1466
Webberweather53

Posted 16 October 2018 - 01:10 PM

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Just saw your tweet before you posted this.

Beyond fascinating. I wish we had upper air analysis from the 19th century, lol.

 

Like this is beyond ridiculous lol, there aren't many ENSO events for one thing that had ONI this low so late in the year, to top it off this came within a couple years of a super El Nino which arguably extended into multiple winters like 2014-16. 1880-81 is a nice middle ground between those El Ninos that dampened (as usual) in the late winter/spring dampening and ones that persisted and intensified in the following year. 


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#1467
Webberweather53

Posted 16 October 2018 - 01:15 PM

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I'm (still) working on significantly revamping the Extended Multivariate ENSO Index (MEI.ext), actually decided to do it for my Masters thesis here at UNC-Charlotte. I think I've finally been able to figure out how I'm going to adjust the final index for things like observational density discrepancies between SLP & SST, differences in inter-dataset variances, number of available datasets, explained variance in the EOFs, etc.


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#1468
TT-SEA

Posted 16 October 2018 - 01:39 PM

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Well... if we follow 1880-81 then expect an incredibly wet winter here with just a couple very short intrusions of cold air.  

 

Portland had around 36 inches of rain just in the December - February period that winter!  


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#1469
Jesse

Posted 16 October 2018 - 01:41 PM

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Well... if we follow 1880-81 then expect an incredibly wet winter here with just a couple very short intrusions of cold air.

Portland had around 36 inches of rain just in the December - February period that winter!


Sounds glorious.

Our Storm King redux last January has me feeling good about this analog.

#1470
TT-SEA

Posted 16 October 2018 - 01:44 PM

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Sounds glorious.

Our Storm King redux last January has me feeling good about this analog.

 

 

And yet even if Portland had 100 inches of rain in the December - February period... the trees would still be dying from drought stress by July if we have another hot, dry summer.   Winter rain does not help.   Excess just runs off into the ocean.    ;)


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#1471
Front Ranger

Posted 16 October 2018 - 01:59 PM

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And yet even if Portland had 100 inches of rain in the December - February period... the trees would still be dying from drought stress by July if we have another hot, dry summer. Winter rain does not help. Excess just runs off into the ocean. ;)


You've kept hammering on this point, despite no one disputing the importance of warm season precip.

Cool anomalies soothe the soul.


#1472
TT-SEA

Posted 16 October 2018 - 02:09 PM

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You've kept hammering on this point, despite no one disputing the importance of warm season precip.

 

 

Because it was hammered into me that all of our rain in the 2014-17 period came in the wet season when it was wet anyways and was not enough to stop the tree die off during the hot, dry summer months.

 

Of course... it has not been that extreme up here.   About half the warm season months in that period at SEA were actually above normal for rainfall.  



#1473
Front Ranger

Posted 16 October 2018 - 02:40 PM

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Of course... it has not been that extreme up here. About half the warm season months in that period at SEA were actually above normal for rainfall.

There wasn't non-stop summer drought from 2014-17, though, so you're kinda making a false equivalency.

It was 2015, 2018, and to a lesser extent 2017 that had regional drought in the warm season.
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Cool anomalies soothe the soul.


#1474
TT-SEA

Posted 16 October 2018 - 02:47 PM

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There wasn't non-stop summer drought from 2014-17, though, so you're kinda making a false equivalency.

It was 2015, 2018, and to a lesser extent 2017 that had regional drought in the warm season.

 

You are changing the narrative!   Every time I mention how wet it was in 2014-17... the response is that it was wet when its usually wet and the summers have been killing every living here despite all the winter rain.   ;)



#1475
Front Ranger

Posted 16 October 2018 - 02:55 PM

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You are changing the narrative! Every time I mention how wet it was in 2014-17... the response is that it was wet when its usually wet and the summers have been killing every living here despite all the winter rain. ;)


I think it's more like every time someone mentioned the drought, you brought up the wet cool seasons. ;)

People have pointed out to you, fairly, that those wet seasons equaled wet years - but that meant nothing for the extremely dry multi-month periods in 2015, 2017, and 2018. The very wet cool season period = wet years, but that did not make them more significant than the very dry warm season periods.

Cool anomalies soothe the soul.


#1476
Phil

Posted 16 October 2018 - 05:33 PM

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You nuke every thread you post in, Tim. :lol:
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#1477
TT-SEA

Posted 16 October 2018 - 05:36 PM

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You nuke every thread you post in, Tim. :lol:

 

 

I just looked up the winter of 1880-81 here since we are supposedly following it perfectly from an ENSO perspective.   That is really why we care about ENSO... the effects on our local weather.  



#1478
ShawniganLake

Posted 16 October 2018 - 11:03 PM

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Well... if we follow 1880-81 then expect an incredibly wet winter here with just a couple very short intrusions of cold air.

Portland had around 36 inches of rain just in the December - February period that winter!

Looked at New Westminster station to see what it was like in BC that winter. November to January was solidly cold. A 3 month mean right around 34F with close to 40” of snow. Maybe a decent amount of jet suppression that year.

#1479
luminen

Posted 17 October 2018 - 08:13 PM

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Looked at New Westminster station to see what it was like in BC that winter. November to January was solidly cold. A 3 month mean right around 34F with close to 40” of snow. Maybe a decent amount of jet suppression that year.

 

I would love that. For some reason, I'm looking forward to this winter more than any other before. I have a good feeling. Yeah I know not scientific or logical at all but the last time fall foliage was this vibrant and long lasting with sunny weather was in 2008.  ;)



#1480
Geos

Posted 17 October 2018 - 09:24 PM

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Daily variations. Probably temporary

 

Still heading down.

 

Quite a bit of cooling in the last 7 days.

 

cdas-sflux_ssta7diff_global_1.png


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Finn Hill, elevation: 460 ft
2018 moisture: 27.16", 10/9

Lowest Temp of Autumn 2018: 36°, 10/03

 

2017-2018 winter snowfall total: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

Weather station/wx cam: http://map.bloomsky....qBxp6apnJSnqqm2
https://www.wundergr...OTHE144#history


#1481
Geos

Posted 18 October 2018 - 10:02 AM

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Might end up with a weak Modoki el Nino if anything. 

 

cdas-sflux_ssta_global_1.png


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Finn Hill, elevation: 460 ft
2018 moisture: 27.16", 10/9

Lowest Temp of Autumn 2018: 36°, 10/03

 

2017-2018 winter snowfall total: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

Weather station/wx cam: http://map.bloomsky....qBxp6apnJSnqqm2
https://www.wundergr...OTHE144#history